Michigan Monday vs. UCF up at The Ozone
Michigan Monday is up at Buckeye website "The Ozone."
LINK: Michigan Monday: Speight is Enough.
I really am not going to take a lot of energy to cut and paste and summarize too much of what Gerdeman wrote. It is his material, and I'm not going to plagiarize extensively. He always has a half decent analysis.
The good:
- Speight was very good, and going to get better.
- The receivers (Butt, Darboh, Chesson) Twere very good. McDoom is "fast and twitchy" and "only going to get better."
- The run defense wasn't all that bad . . . if you eliminate the 3 QB scrambles, and the 2 other solid runs.
- The pass defense is stellar . . . and that's without Lewis.
- Glasgow is so good, he's not eliminating a running lane, but running LANES.
- Gary and Peppers stood out.
- Special Teams did well.
- Mo Hurst also came in for some praise.
- Mone, Lewis, and Charlton will help some on their return.
The bad (or at least "so-so.")
- The running game was bad. Not on the OL, but they were not good.
- Smith totalled 38 yds. on 10 carries. 8 of those carries netted 9 yards. At this point, Smith is who he is.
- The OL was ok to pretty good, except for Braden. Kalis still struggles when on the move. The problem was with RB (FB? TE?) missing blocks.
- Even with the fact that the 5 runs are explainable (failing to keep QB contain, allowing a speedster to go), this highlights how a team (like OSU) can beat Michigan, with QB play, and to the outside.
Here is one troubling quote. We are all going to be waiting for the OSU game to see what Michigan will do:
There are ways to attack this defense out wide, and Michigan did have trouble accounting for a mobile quarterback. If you're a Buckeye fan, that should have you smiling. If you're a Wolverine fan, you might have that old familiar sickening feeling. Or at least you would if you weren't completely sold on Don Brown and what he can do for you.
And in the wrapup:
Opponents may have gained a bit of confidence after seeing Michigan's run defense this week. I'm not saying they're right, but there are areas to the outside that are vulnerable, provided you have the players to take advantage.
You won't find a lot of new material in what Gerdeman writes. But if you are a football junkie, here is your "fix."
September 13th, 2016 at 12:33 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 7:41 AM ^
All good points. Brown and Harbaugh also have played vanilla, vanilla, vanilla. The D will look much differently in November.
September 13th, 2016 at 9:21 AM ^
They should watch some BC film to see if Don Brown is going to just let a mobile QB run wild on him.
September 13th, 2016 at 7:49 AM ^
It has been our Achilles heel forever, and the only two games we have played this year it has been our single biggest weakness. How is that short sighted?
September 13th, 2016 at 9:07 AM ^
It's shortsighted because it doesn't consider all the facts and oversignifies what happened in one somewhat weird early game. Restating what the poster said: 1) It's one game, early in the season (small sample size) 2) M is missing two key DL; 3) Brown is playing vanilla defense and it's highly unlikely he makes no adjustments by the time we play OSU. I'll add that 4) the majority of rushing yardage came on like 4 plays from mistakes which can be fixed in one film session, not systemic weaknesses: Thomas bad fill; McCray getting edged (maybe held) by a receiver; new young edge rushers blasting too far upfield; poorly executed stunt).
So if you're not considering these factors and concluding that Michigan's run defense has significant holes which all future opponents including OSU are going to exploit, then yeah it's shortsighted.
I also don't see how it's relevent that Michigan teams in the past have had trouble with mobile QB's.
September 13th, 2016 at 9:23 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 9:10 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 9:25 AM ^
His BC offense did not give him much help, but yeah, he did not shut down Clemson at all.
Question: People on here talk about Don Brown as some kind of spread shut-down guru. Is that really true or is it wishful thinking? I certainly hope it's true, but I'm not sure if I know.
I'm curious, who are the elite spread teams he has shut down in his career? I'm looking for something to hang our hats on.
September 13th, 2016 at 10:23 AM ^
Yes, but consider that the same Clemson team put up 550 yards against Alabama in the title game. So not a good showing but not off the charts bad either.
September 13th, 2016 at 1:01 PM ^
Clemson put up a ton of yards on just about everyone, including an Alabama team loaded with NFL talent. I think Brown has the right formula but he won't be able to stop everyone, all the time. It's just not possible.
To say he's gonna be able to shutdown OSU's (or another elite spread team's) attack completely is crazy. But I absolutely think they can slow them up enough as to make it a competitive game.
Two weeks into a new system with three starters out isn't a great sample size and shouldn't be viewed as confirmation or speculation of any results this defense may or may not produce.
September 13th, 2016 at 12:38 AM ^
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September 13th, 2016 at 7:49 AM ^
I believe it was Brian that brought up the other day how we were consistently looping around behind the QB allowing a lane to the outside. Once we give up on trying to sack the QB every play we'll be fine.
September 13th, 2016 at 1:04 AM ^
1. get all of the starters back
2. focus on keeping contain and maintaining discipline
With the score being so lopsided I think the defense lost some of its focus. Our defensive ends were flying upfield trying to make a play and they forgot about being disciplined.
September 13th, 2016 at 1:05 AM ^
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September 13th, 2016 at 1:33 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 7:51 AM ^
But still, with the load of NJ kids we now have, you can bet that the Rutgers game is highlighted on their calendars so they can show off for their friends back home. The team may not give a rat's ass about Rutgers, but many of the players do.
September 13th, 2016 at 2:01 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 3:37 AM ^
I have to admit -- I enjoy his write-ups. The analysis is pretty good, there's some humor, and he generally seems to find the right balance of respect and good-natured rivalry (at least, for non-Buckeye readers).
September 13th, 2016 at 9:26 AM ^
He probably has more Michigan readers than Ohio State readers.
September 13th, 2016 at 3:24 PM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 7:11 PM ^
Nice.
September 13th, 2016 at 3:46 AM ^
However, playing defense against a below average team, up by 30+ points is not the same as playing a close game against OSU. The types of plays, personnel, intensity... will not be the same.
Also, while I think Urban is the 2nd best coach in the game, Don Brown has coached against Clemson and FSU yearly in then ACC. He knows that style of offense and has done well against it with lower rates kids.
September 13th, 2016 at 5:54 AM ^
I agree with you completely that there is something about the spread and the level of play. I have always thought that the spread does very well against 90 - 95% of the teams out there, and the level of talent out there.
However, against the highest level of talent and coaching, I think a pro-style offense can win. I am not enough of a football guy to explain this. But this is the reason that the Crimson Tide wins. They have the level of talent, especially defensively, to beat a spread team consistently. I think this is why Oregon looked so dominant, but collapsed when then faced the highest level of talent and coaching.
On the coaching front, Brian noticed this last year, and even moreso this year. He saw that even though Harbaugh's team wasn't a spread, they weren't boringly predictable. Many Michigan teams in the past (sorry, Bo and Lloyd et al), it was very easy for a good defense to know what to do. There were keys in formations that spelled out what was going to happen. Brian's happiness and frustration (with the UFR) is that the defensive formations are many, and are not predictable.
As Michigan gets the talent on campus, I believe we will see more creative playcalling. And as we see better teams later in the year, I believe we will see many more wrinkles on both offense and defense. There are two ways and maybe a third Michigan is doing this to their advantage.
First, the more sets that Michigan uses now, the more sets opposing coaches have to prepare against. They already are aware that they can't definitively predict what Michigan is going to do from how they line up.
Second, by keeping the playbook against UCF fairly vanilla, Michigan can save trickeration and unusual sets in their hip pocket to use only when needed.
The third wrinkle is a variation of the first: Michigan can introduce "red herring" formations for other teams to see and prepare for, even if they never intend to use them again.
September 13th, 2016 at 8:12 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 8:41 AM ^
I'd partially agree, but I would chalk that up to the talent level. That is to say, when the talent level between Bama and a spread team is equal, and the coaching is equal, Bama will win or be very competitive.
As regards OSU in particular, I think Herman was a huge loss. I don't know how well he has been replaced. Your playcalling last year against MSU was part of your doom. You lost to a team with a much lower skill level. Why?
- Weather
- Zeke being sick
- inability to consistently pass downfield
- A solid opposing DL that kept contain
- Bad playcalling and adjustments by the OC.
Michigan has been gashed several times. I believe this is something that can be addressed. If they stay as deep on the DL as they are, I think they are set up this year to stop your offense from marching down the field. We'll see . . . that's why they play the games.
September 13th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^
My point is Alabama has struggled to defend spread teams run with elite players to a degree they have not struggled to defend pro-style teams run with similar elite talent. Alabama was competitive in every game, because they are always great, but they certainly get gashed on defense when dealing with spread teams in ways they don't when dealing with pro-style attacks. The only game I can remember Alabama looking mortal on defense to a pro-style team was the 2012 SEC title game against Todd Gurley and Aaron Murray, and even then, Georgia only scored 21 points on offense.
To your second point, the weather masked 2015 MSU's giant weakness in defending the pass (they finished in the 70s overall, which includes the OSU game where they only gave up like 40 passing yards) and OSU still was stubborn about having their play caller at field level instead of up in the booth. OSU just kept not passing and running into 8, 9 and 10 man boxes, negating the numbers advantage a running QB is supposed to give spread teams.
Michigan can certainly beat OSU this year, but it would be a huge surprise if they held OSU to some type of 2015-MSU level offensive output, talented DL or not.
September 13th, 2016 at 9:35 AM ^
Hey, wait . . . I thought we were the only team that can't run against 8, 9, 10 man boxes.
September 13th, 2016 at 9:28 AM ^
Alabama has consistently chewed up and spit out talented pro-style attacks (MSU, UM, USC, LSU, ND)
We weren't pro-style when Alabama chewed us up and spit us out.
There. I feel much better now.
September 13th, 2016 at 9:31 AM ^
Well, whatever riff-raff offense Hoke trotted out there wasn't a spread attack, despite Denard Robinson at QB.
September 13th, 2016 at 5:08 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 6:16 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 9:15 AM ^
Indiana a "true measure" of how we'll do against the Buckeyes?
More like "not a complete lie" measure.
September 13th, 2016 at 10:14 AM ^
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September 13th, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 6:19 AM ^
Force those outside runs in and you shut down any success UCF had using the RB, with the exception of one play by the RB. The QB run yardage was a product of gap integrity along the line on passing plays only. The good news was if he doesn't see a little gap he would have been sacked he basically was runnig for his life.
As for UM struggling running the ball there are not many teams that would have had success running the ball. UCF sold their souls to the point of 300+ yards of passing in the QB's second start in his career. Then still kept seven and eight in the box they simply would have traded off a 1000 yards passing and a 151 points as long as they stopped the run.
But hey, they out hit us (according to their coach) and out rushed us so there's that, and if they could have maybe scored another 30 points those two factors might mean something. Funny thing about out hitting us though they kept walking their players off the field and UM had no injuries. Nor did anyone need to be helped off the field.. And as always Go Blue!
September 13th, 2016 at 7:10 AM ^
"the Wolverines play their first rivalry game of the season when they travel to Rutgers. After Rutgers they'll have a bye week to sort of assess their overall situation as a team and to calm down a bit from playing the hated Scarlet Knights."
Nailed it.
September 13th, 2016 at 9:30 AM ^
He's been paying attention.
Probably has an account on here.
Could be Carlos SpicyWeiner.
September 13th, 2016 at 7:28 AM ^
Lloyd always used to talk about the importance of keeping the ball "inside the defense."
The explosive runs were essentially guys not doing that, trying too hard to make a play themselves and not turning the ball back in to their teammates.
September 13th, 2016 at 7:42 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 8:01 AM ^
Can't really judge the product we'll face by early season games. OSU (and us) will be finer tuned come November.
September 13th, 2016 at 9:17 AM ^
Same for us . . . .
September 13th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^
September 13th, 2016 at 8:32 AM ^
That's why I'm just not all that concerned about whatever busts our D had against UCF. If anything, it gives the coaches an opportunity to teach. Not to mention, I'm more confident now than in past years we have just about the best DC we could have to take on a Meyer offense.
And anyway, I think at least 2 of the scrambles was a lack of discipline/focus that could be attributed to the scoreboard and opponent level. It's not the same sort of mistake I would expect against an OSU.
September 13th, 2016 at 8:49 AM ^
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September 13th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
Yes. The QB had already broken contain before that. Somehow it reminded me of the 2004 MSU game. Draw after draw gashing Michigan. Shiver me timbers.
September 13th, 2016 at 10:46 AM ^
...but the only team who's consistently found a way to shut down OSU's power spread offense is.... OSU. I hate to say it, but... yeah. I'm beating that dead horse again, but there seems to be a myth around here that we lost the 2015 OSU game because DJ Durkin didn't adjust to beat a moribund offense that farted out 8 yards of total offense the week before.
That's poppycock. Our run D had issues, yes, but the main causal factor wasn't OUR lack of adjustment, but Ohio State remembering they had JT Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott and Braxton and 4 future draft picks on the O-Line. As much as we'd all like to forget it, these are the same assholes who won a championship in 2014 and essentially lost nothing from that squad last year. I hated the fact they dropped 6 TD's on our face - but you know who else they scored 6 TD's on? Every other big game they played where they mysteriously didn't have their heads up their ass. 2014 MSU, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame last year - all elite teams. Durkin's game plan last year was ineffective, but it was no less ineffective than all the other games I just listed. Did any of those defensive coordinators mail it in?
I have faith that Don Brown will figure the kinks out and will be better prepared but it's not solely a function of what *we* do. If we lose again, I'll be disappointed and hurt but remember, the other team has players too and it's not just a simple matter of showing up with superior talent and out-executing the other side.
September 13th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^