Michigan Mock Draft Positions
There has not been much talk about the upcoming NBA draft, which is surprising given the huge effect it will have on the constitution of our team next year. There have been 30 threads created on the NBA draft during the time I got pulled away from writing this. Correct me if I’m wrong, but April 16th is the declaration date, so we will know who is staying and who is gone by then, right?
There hasn’t been much stated about who is packing up their rooms and who is entrenching themselves for another long March. I’ve referenced a few mock drafts to get a range on our potential pro prospects. McGary's range is odd, as most sites don't have him in the top 60. Maybe he was omitted from a few mock drafts due to saying he's 100% on returning to the team.
Trey Burke – (6, 6, 7, 7, 9, 9, 13, 17)
Possible teams have included: Kings, Hornets, Pistons, Thunder, Mavs, Bucks
Glenn Robinson III – (10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 16, 22)
Possible teams have included: Timberwolves, Nets, Bullets, 76ers, Hawks
Mitch McGary – (18, 24)
Possible teams have included: Knicks, Hawks
Tim Hardaway Jr. – (19, 28, 30, 32, 32, 47, 51)
Possible teams have included: Heat, Magic, Cavaliers, Bulls, Thunder
April 10th, 2013 at 11:56 AM ^
After that he said he would think about it.
April 10th, 2013 at 11:56 AM ^
He backtracked a bit after saying that.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:09 PM ^
He's already pulled back from that statement, so he's a risk, but maybe not a huge one.
April 10th, 2013 at 11:56 AM ^
Burke goes: 99%
GRIII: 50/50
THJ: 50/50
McGary: 25%
I bet if THJ and GRIII had had a better season and/or tournament, they'd both be out the door. Quotes from McGary give me the impression he probably wants to stay but is just leaving his options open
April 10th, 2013 at 12:18 PM ^
April 10th, 2013 at 12:28 PM ^
if McGary and GRIII both decide to go to the pros. If they did, I can't imagine Timmy would hang around either.
If you had a gun to my head, I'd bet that both of them came back and both are gone after next season
He clearly needs another year at least. For one thing, he needs to gain more strength. Otherwise he's going to get handled in the NBA every night. Another thing is his shot isn't consistent enough. And he just needs to increase his intensity level game -in and game-out. McGary also could benefit greatly from another year. I believe in the end, both will be back next year.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:31 PM ^
My gut feeling says that McGary and GR3 will make the decision together. I think they will stick around another year and then both enter the draft next year.
April 10th, 2013 at 11:59 AM ^
Am I the only one who thinks Trey Burke might be a little bit of a flop in the pros? He's a very good college player, obviously. I don't mean to take anything away from his performance so far. But he's not lightning quick, and he's not very big. I just think he's going to have a harder time getting to the basket, creating shots, etc. than he did in college. I don't see him as a superstar, which is what you're looking for in the lottery. To me he looks like a smaller Chauncey Billups.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:01 PM ^
Not sure he'll be Chris Paul caliber but he will be very good.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:06 PM ^
Givony from Draft Express wrote this after the title game,
"Trey Burke has blown-by maybe the best perimeter defender in the NCAA, Russ Smith, all game. Maybe most important thing we learned tonight."
I don't think you are giving him enough credit. He may not be as explosive as Russel Westbrook from OKC but he has other skills that can help him compensate for that. Keep in mind that, likely, on an NBA team he will not be the sole focu of a defense to stop him, as he was during his college career. It will clear more space for him, etc.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:17 PM ^
I didn't really see Burke blowing by many people, although he has a good handle. His dribbling prowess is more helpful than his pure speed/quickness at getting past guys, in my opinion.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:29 PM ^
He doesn't need elite quickness if he's a threat to score from 30 feet out though.
Regarding his size, he makes up for some of his 6'0" height with a 6'5" wingspan
If you can't get past people, though, it's going to be tougher to shoot over them when they're crowding you out to 27'.
not quite sure you can label somebody a bust and them compare them to Chauncey Billups.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:13 PM ^
It has always seemed that small guys have to be super-quick to be stars in the NBA. Trey is a great college player, and no doubt will help his pro team. But I don't see him as a star in the league. Hope I am wrong about that. I would draft McGary before Trey, because he seems to have enormous upside, albeit he is still pretty raw.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:17 PM ^
I see Burke as a guy who isn't likely to be a flop or a superstar. I think he'll be the equivalent of, say, Luol Deng if Deng played PG, a very good but not truly elite player.
When I say "flop," I don't mean a total failure. Maybe "flop" was the wrong word. But when I think of lottery picks, I think of guys who are potential "faces of the franchise," and I don't see Burke being that guy.
Faces of the francise, like Darko and the Pistons, right?
Darko the Human Victory Cigar.
Yeah, I don't see him being all-NBA /the kind of guy who carries a team either.
Ok, so your drafting is all-nba or bust? huh? You do realize that those standards renders a ridiculous portion of the league's starters as busts...most drafts range from 0-3 of those caliber players anyways.
I said that I think he'll be as good as Luol Deng, which is pretty damn good.
I absolutely agree with this. Once you get to the bottom half of the lottery, I think most teams would be very pleased to get a guy who turns into a solid but unspectacular starter. Just looking at the last few lotteries, you see a bunch of point/combo guards who don't nearly have the tools to be superstars -- Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard, Austin Rivers, etc. I think Burke compares favorably to that group.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:42 PM ^
I'm no expert and I respect your football analysis (most of the time), but I don't thik you have much room for an argument here. Exactly what aspects of Burke's game do you think would not translate well to the NBA? What evidence have you witnessed throughout the season that you can cite as to why he won't be a successful pro. The young man has excellent quickness,deceptively so, enough to blow by Siva and Smith on a consistent basis, two of the quickest guards in basketball. The only player who shut Burke down is Oladipo and he could defend 3/4 of the NBA's guards successfully. Trey also has an elite set of moves he uses to score, step back jumper, deceptive quickness, touch when finishing around the rim, and an amazing puul up jumper. I know you always plays the devil's advocate but in my opinion this post should be flagged for trolling.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^
I didn't see him "blowing by" anyone in the national championship game with his speed. I saw him outmuscling those guys because he's stronger than Siva/Smith.
I'm not trolling. Why is it difficult to believe that a good college player would struggle in the NBA?
he is so deceptively quick that he even managed to decieve even you. So he can outmuscle guards too, excellent, add that to the list of his strengths along with his quickness, You're right, he IS going to be a good Pro. And its not hard to imagine a good college player struggling in the NBA, heck look at Hansborough, but Burke has all the tools he needs to succeed. Your comparison to Chauncey Billups eludes to him doing quite well in the NBA.
I compared him to Chauncey Billups because I think they have similar skills; they're physical point guards with some shooting range.
The difference is that Billups is 6'3", and Burke is listed at 6'0" (so he's probably 5'11"). So it doesn't "elude" to him doing quite well. It means he's the height of TJ Ford without (in my opinion) the same kind of speed.
And perhaps you were the one being "decieved" about his quickness.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:44 PM ^
Have you looked at Billups's career numbers? A smaller Billups is absolutely worth the eighth pick in the draft.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/billuch01.html
I don't think the league expects Trey to be the next Chris Paul or even Kyrie Irving, but they see him as a safe pick who might settle into the Ty Lawson-Jameer Nelson tier of small, solid point guards. He's often compared to Kemba Walker, too--Kemba has put up pretty good numbers this year, and would be a bigger deal on a decent team.
Billups got where he is partly because he's 6'3" and 210 lbs., though. Burke is about three inches shorter than him. If you're 6'0" or shorter, you typically have to be super quick to make a big impact. I just don't see Burke having that kind of speed. He relies on being stronger than people and taking contact in the paint, but those things are going to be significantly tougher as the competition/size improves at the next level.
Size and speed are nice, but there are numerous NBA points with similar physical makeups to Burke who range from serviceable (Kyle Lowry) to good (Andre Miller) to great (Tony Parker, Chris Paul). None of those guys have elite athleticism, all are 6'2" or shorter, and all get by primarily by being good at basketball. Which Trey Burke is.
Also, I think you might have a misconception of what teams are expecting in the 6-13 draft pick range. Look through prior years' drafts -- getting a solid starter here is really what you're hoping for.
Parker and Miller both have at least a couple inches on Burke.
But Paul doesn't, nor does Lowry or Jameer Nelson or Maurice Williams or DJ Augustin. The point is that there are many guys who have been anywhere from serviceable to HOF with comparable physical tools.
I'm not saying nobody has success there with his size, and I was thinking that Jameer Nelson might be a pretty good comparison. Like I said above, I think "flop" may have been the wrong word. I just don't see Burke being a face-of-the-franchise type of player, and he could be like Nelson, who's not that type of player, either. It just seems a fair number of Michigan fans think Burke is going to go light it up in the NBA, and I don't think that's the case. Serviceable to good, yes. But I don't think he'll be the next Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, etc.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:52 PM ^
(repost)
April 10th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
Depends on how you define flop, I think he can easily become a Jameer Nelson clone. Who is an all star with great players around him, but just above average when he is playing on a joke of a team.
Comparing him to Chris Paul is just dumb because he is the best point guard in the NBA by far.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:16 PM ^
Your assessment of GRIII is correct in my opinion. I wonder if his timidness was because he was playing out of position and he was told not to do too much with the basketball. He showed flashes at times and it was when he wasnt thinking so much and just reacting to what the defense was giving him. I belieive if he returns and is allowed to play more on the wing instead of the baseline his game will blossom and we will see the player that shot up the recruiting ranks in his senior season of high school.
Pretty good comparison. I don't believe there are guaranteed contracts if you're drafted in the second round. If you're a second round draft pick and get cut in camp, you might be sol. It's why underclassmen usually only come out if they are very confident of being a first round pick.
April 10th, 2013 at 12:30 PM ^
I think people have very lofty views of the caliber of palyers that are getting drafted in the first round nowadays. Look at the following list of players from that mock draft. You don't have to be a perfect prospect to be drafted in the first round. GRIII, for example, despite the flaws you mention is top 5 at his position. I don't see what's so different about him and a player like Archie Goodwin who is also expected to go in the 1st round. I have similar sentiments about McGary as well...nobody is saying these are can't miss prospects like Lebron James, but the fact is that you don't need to be in this era of one and dones to be drafted in the first round.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2013/
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/
April 10th, 2013 at 12:38 PM ^
All four would get drafted, and that's what is wrong with the NBA. I don't want to go to an NBA game and watch potential. I want to watch basketball at its best with players at their best.
That being said, if they are going to get drafted and make millions of dollars I can't fault them for going.
Burke, by all means, is going to be an excellent Pro and has nothing left to prove in the college ranks. Everyone else, however, would be ill advised to leave. I understand the NBA draft is based mostly on potential and players should take the money if its there BUTTTTT.....Glen Robinson is a 3 dimensional player. Robinson only cathes oops, hits 3's from the corner, and rebounds/tip dunks. This young man needs to work on his handles, I literally NEVER saw GRIII take anyone off the dribble, he looked so uncomfortable even dribbling around the top of the key befor he passed it to whoever, he cannot create his own shot yet because his handles are lacking. Someone with his elite athleticism should be able to take a bigger defender off the dribble, what further proves my point is that he always had the other team's 4 guarding him on the perimiter and couldn't take any of them individually. He's a hell of a slasher but needs another year to work on his shooting and refine his game. McGary could succeed in the Pro's if he left this year but I don't think he is athletic enough to be productive YET. He is very smooth and fluid and I think his fluidity helps him with being quick for a big man, but for a 6'10" guy he shure isnt very explosive. One more year will make him a lottery pick. Hardaway is the most inconsistent player I've seen at Michigan since Ronald Coleman! I love Timmy but he completely disappears at times and he is a streak shooter. When he is on, watch out, but when he is off, he is OFF. Just my 4 cents...