Michigan @ Indiana. Behind the numbers.
*It's a working title, kind of like danger beach*
This is not a prediction thread. This is a it's Friday, I'm bored at work, look at the numbers and discuss things thread.
( Big Ten Rank)
| Michigan | Indiana | |
| Pts/Game | 78.0 (2nd) | 84.0 (1st) |
| FG % | 51% (1st) | 50% (2nd) |
| 3PT % | 41% (2nd) | 42% (1st) |
| FT% | 71% (5th) | 74% (1st) |
| FTA/Game | 16.8 (10th) | 27.5 (1st) |
| Per Fouls | 247 (1st) | 352 (5th) |
| AST/Game | 15.5 (4th) | 16.0 (2nd) |
| TO/Game | 9.4 (2nd) | 13.3 (10th) |
| ST/Game | 5.6 (9th) | 8.1 (3rd) |
| BLK/Game | 2.86 (12th) | 3.48 (9th) |
Wow, this is going to be an exciting game. As you can see a lot of the offensive stats are pretty similar. One key fact to look at is that Indiana gets to the foul line the most in the Big Ten, but Michigan fouls the least in the Big Ten. I really hope this game is not called like last nights Illinois at MSU game, that would be bad news for us. Indiana doesn't take care of the ball as well as we do, so turnovers could be a huge advantage for us.
GO BLUE. BEAT INDIANA.
p.s. Brady Hoke would never wear Red. Not even if the World were ending.
February 1st, 2013 at 12:03 PM ^
1. Take care of the ball.
2. Keep them off of the free throw line.
3. Do everything else we normally do.
4. We win.
February 1st, 2013 at 12:15 PM ^
Yes if Indiana gets to the line mroe than we do they should win- because that means more chances for free points- and they score at similar rates to us- but even if we dont have too many turnovers and play a great game keeping them off the line they can definitely win.
The game is at Indiana- and at best we are a slightly better team than Indiana is (be nagry about that if you want)... we should not be a favorite to win- even if we play a good game. We need an excellent game to win- Indiana at home is a hell of a team. If we win it puts us in the drivers seat for the conference and likely a 1 seed- but if we lose it does not mean too much. Losing to the number 3 team, and preseason number 1 on the road is not too worrisome- but it will certainyl take more than just playing like we do and not trunging the ball over imo.
February 1st, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^
Everyone should check out umhoops for their initial preview... Great read.
http://www.umhoops.com/2013/02/01/first-look-michigan-at-indiana/#more-…
Additionally, http://www.insidethehall.com/2013/02/01/what-to-expect-michigan-3/#more…
is a good read from an indiana blogger's perspective.
February 1st, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^
since Michigan plays at a much slower pace than Indiana. On a points-per-possession basis, Michigan is #1 (by a lot) and IU is #3.
February 1st, 2013 at 12:29 PM ^
This game is going to be a heck of a contest. The teams are very well matched, and I think Michigan will pull out a close one on the road. It is hard to win on the road though at Indiana so if we lose in a close one I won't be too upset. I'll only be mad if we get blown out.
In his article this week on SI.com (LINK) Seth Davis had this to say about Mitch McGary:
Michigan's Mitch McGary doesn't get enough mentions for being one of the top freshmen in the country. He is a strong, tough, energetic uber-rebounder and finisher who gives this team a tremendous lift off the bench. And he gets better every time he steps on the court.
February 1st, 2013 at 12:32 PM ^
I think M is clearly the better more well rounded team, and with their business like approach can go into Assembly Hall and pull out the victory. Not going to be easy by any stretch but I like Michigan's chances.
The Hardaway, Burke, Stauskas matchup versus Oladipo, Hulls, and Ferrell is a big advantage to Michigan. I would expect M to try to take Hulls of the dribble whenever the opportunity presents itself.
February 1st, 2013 at 12:39 PM ^
It will be interesting to see who matches up against who- if Oladipo guards Burke to try to stop him THJ may be a huge factor- and overall our guards should match up well...
I also agree we are a more well rounded team (better team) I don't think we are better by enough of a margin to give us the advantage in Indiana. I think we can win but I put our odds at 1/3- hope I'm wrong. IF we win, particularly if it's not too close I think we break away from Kansas and become a very clear number 1 and could imagine us winning out if we can win at Indiana with a solid win.
February 1st, 2013 at 2:26 PM ^
They put us at a 32% chance of winning tomorrow night.
February 1st, 2013 at 3:05 PM ^
Great minds... (does that still work if one's a computer?)
February 1st, 2013 at 1:55 PM ^
February 1st, 2013 at 12:35 PM ^
The table the OP gives rather bears out the indecision that even some of the better predictive models have about this game. You know it will be intriguing when various models cannot agree entirely on their estimation of the outcome. Using the Sagarin predictor ratings, we would be about a 4-point underdog, which isn't much really, and Massey's site pretty throws this out there as a tossup with a 50% win probability for Michigan, listing a projected score of 75-74. TeamRankings, which uses a different model (that seems to overemphasize a few stats) went with Indiana by 4 as well, but rated their confidence in their prediction as low. Long story short, anyone's guess is as good as theirs.
Anyway, a few other things that also stand out - Indiana averages 24.1% of its points from free throws (compare to 15.1% for Michigan), and we score about 31% of our points from 3-pointers, compared to 27.2% for Indiana. When it comes to 3-pointers, Wisconsin has us both beat in this regard, which is interesting because it seemed like, in the Badgers' win at Assembly, they were able to get Indiana into a half-court game and get them to play zone, which the Hoosiers seem uncomfortable doing. That's when the threes started for the Badgers. Maybe I am misinterpreting what went on in that second half, but if you can exploit their defense on the perimeter, the Hoosiers are vulnerable there.
This will definitely be an exciting game! Go Blue!
February 1st, 2013 at 12:37 PM ^
You know what's behind the numbers?
That creepy guy from that one show. That's where he hangs out.
February 1st, 2013 at 1:06 PM ^
February 1st, 2013 at 1:57 PM ^
Indiana will have a little bit of a slight size advantage down low with Zeller and Watford (or Sheehey) against Morgan (might not be 100%) and GR 3. I do believe McGary will be able to hold his own down low. Michigan will have the advance at the backcourt with Hardaway Jr., Burke, and Stauskas. I believe they will try to put Oladipo on burke to try and slow him down. That will leave Yogi Ferrel and Jordan Hulls who are each 6 feet to try and stop Tim and Stauskas who are 6'6 apiece. Michigan should win if they stay out of foul trouble, keeps their turnovers to a minimum, and gets physical to rattle Zeller early. Overall the game will be very closely contested, but I hope for a blowout to rip all my IU bandwagon buddies. Go Blue!!
February 1st, 2013 at 1:59 PM ^
February 1st, 2013 at 2:01 PM ^
Beat the ronald mcdonald pants boys!
February 1st, 2013 at 2:12 PM ^
More numbers:
Michigan has lost the last 14 of 15 to Indiana in Bloomington, and 13 straight @Indiana when the Hoosiers are ranked. (Source)
Time to change those numbers.
February 1st, 2013 at 2:45 PM ^