Michigan @ Indiana. Behind the numbers.

1.  Take care of the ball. 

2.  Keep them off of the free throw line. 

3.  Do everything else we normally do.

4.  We win.

Everyone should check out umhoops for their initial preview... Great read.

http://www.umhoops.com/2013/02/01/first-look-michigan-at-indiana/#more-4...

Additionally, http://www.insidethehall.com/2013/02/01/what-to-expect-michigan-3/#more-27526

is a good read from an indiana blogger's perspective.

since Michigan plays at a much slower pace than Indiana.  On a points-per-possession basis, Michigan is #1 (by a lot) and IU is #3.  

This game is going to be a heck of a contest.  The teams are very well matched, and I think Michigan will pull out a close one on the road.  It is hard to win on the road though at Indiana so if we lose in a close one I won't be too upset.  I'll only be mad if we get blown out.

In his article this week on SI.com (LINK) Seth Davis had this to say about Mitch McGary:

Michigan's Mitch McGary doesn't get enough mentions for being one of the top freshmen in the country. He is a strong, tough, energetic uber-rebounder and finisher who gives this team a tremendous lift off the bench. And he gets better every time he steps on the court.

I think  M is clearly the better more well rounded team, and with their business like approach can go into Assembly Hall and pull out the victory. Not going to be easy by any stretch but I like Michigan's chances.

The Hardaway, Burke, Stauskas matchup versus Oladipo, Hulls, and Ferrell is a big advantage to Michigan. I would expect M to try to take Hulls of the dribble whenever the opportunity presents itself.

The table the OP gives rather bears out the indecision that even some of the better predictive models have about this game. You know it will be intriguing when various models cannot agree entirely on their estimation of the outcome. Using the Sagarin predictor ratings, we would be about a 4-point underdog, which isn't much really, and Massey's site pretty throws this out there as a tossup with a 50% win probability for Michigan, listing a projected score of 75-74. TeamRankings, which uses a different model (that seems to overemphasize a few stats) went with Indiana by 4 as well, but rated their confidence in their prediction as low. Long story short, anyone's guess is as good as theirs.

Anyway, a few other things that also stand out - Indiana averages 24.1% of its points from free throws (compare to 15.1% for Michigan), and we score about 31% of our points from 3-pointers, compared to 27.2% for Indiana. When it comes to 3-pointers, Wisconsin has us both beat in this regard, which is interesting because it seemed like, in the Badgers' win at Assembly, they were able to get Indiana into a half-court game and get them to play zone, which the Hoosiers seem uncomfortable doing. That's when the threes started for the Badgers. Maybe I am misinterpreting what went on in that second half, but if you can exploit their defense on the perimeter, the Hoosiers are vulnerable there.

This will definitely be an exciting game! Go Blue!

You know what's behind the numbers? 

That creepy guy from that one show. That's where he hangs out. 

I really think the OSU game experience was the best possible preparation for tomorrow night.. Since that game we've come out of the gates and imposed our will on other teams by taking it right them.

Against OSU, we came out flat and on our heels a bit. Once the OSU crowd got into it, the Buckeyes fed off that energy for most of that 1st half. Our young guys have that experience under their belt and won't let that happen again. Yes, I know Assembly Hall (YTAH) is on a whole different level but the fact remains that the lesson was learned.

Indiana will have a little bit of a slight size advantage down low with Zeller and Watford (or Sheehey) against Morgan (might not be 100%) and GR 3. I do believe McGary will be able to hold his own down low. Michigan will have the advance at the backcourt with Hardaway Jr., Burke, and Stauskas. I believe they will try to put Oladipo on burke to try and slow him down. That will leave Yogi Ferrel and Jordan Hulls who are each 6 feet to try and stop Tim and Stauskas who are 6'6 apiece. Michigan should win if they stay out of foul trouble, keeps their turnovers to a minimum, and gets physical to rattle Zeller early. Overall the game will be very closely contested, but I hope for a blowout to rip all my IU bandwagon buddies. Go Blue!!

MGoBloggers must be busy at work this Friday afternoon. Make money, money, money...Make money, money, money

More numbers:

Michigan has lost the last 14 of 15 to Indiana in Bloomington, and 13 straight @Indiana when the Hoosiers are ranked. (Source)

Time to change those numbers.

The numbers I like is us and them compared against the same opponents. Lately those numbers seem to matter in sports. I think we get out of there with a win if we don't get down early.