Michigan Hockey and the Pairwise - Updated through 2/12 games (post 13)!!

The NCAA does not particularly care about preserving bracket integrity outside of maintaining the seeding bands. They do not have any intention of preserving things like the 5-12 matchup at the expense of getting better attendance. I say this because last year, they put #12 Michigan against #8 Bemidji State so they could put Michigan in Fort Wayne and thus increase attendence.

Also, you broke ties by winning percentage, not RPI. Breaking ties by RPI yields the following overall seeds*:

1 (1). Yale (ECAC)
2 (1). Minn-Duluth (WCHA)
3 (1). North Dakota (WCHA)
4 (1). Boston College (HE)
5 (2). New Hampshire (HE)
6 (2). Denver (WCHA)
7 (2). RPI (ECAC)
8 (2). Wisconsin (WCHA)
9 (3). Union (ECAC)
10 (3). Merrimack (HE)
11 (3). Notre Dame (CCHA)
12 (3). Michigan (CCHA)
13 (4). WMU (CCHA)
14 (4). Boston University (HE)
15 (4). Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA)
16 (4). RIT (Leads Atlantic Hockey Standings)

Sidenote: Massive down year for the CCHA.

Given these overall seeds, I produce the following bracket:

East (Bridgeport)
1 (1). Yale
4 (14). Boston University
2 (5). Boston College
3 (9). Union

Midwest (Green Bay)
1 (2). Minn-Duluth
4 (13). WMU
2 (8). Wisconsin
3 (12). Michigan

West (St. Louis)**
1 (3). North Dakota
4 (16). RIT/Atlantic Hockey
2 (6). Denver
3 (11). Notre Dame

Northeast (Manchester)
1 (4). New Hampshire
4 (15). Nebraska-Omaha
2 (7). RPI
3 (10). Merrimack

Placing the 1-seeds was easy based on geography and hosting requirements. The 4-seeds were not so simple. We'll first put WMU in Green Bay so that WMU doesn't have to fly. Nebraska-Omaha must go east so as to avoid playing North Dakota in an intraconference matchup. This means that either BU or the Atlantic Hockey champ must go west. BU cannot play in Manchester to avoid an intraconference matchup. Furthermore, every semi-decent Atlantic Hockey except RIT will have to fly to every city, in which case we'd stick them in St. Louis by default. However, RIT is within 400 miles of Bridgeport and Manchester*** and would therefore be able to drive. This leaves us with the choice to promote bracket integrity by giving Yale a game with RIT and sending BU west, or shoring up attendence in Bridgeport and sending RIT west. Considering that BU will give a much bigger attendence bump to Bridgeport by virtue of geography, I chose to send BU to Bridgeport and RIT to St. Louis, leaving Nebraska-Omaha for Manchester. This could easily go the other way though.

The 2-seeds and 3-seeds posed a more difficult challenge. Wisconsin to Green Bay was the easiest choice, as it serves to shore up attendence there. Denver to St. Louis also made a lot of sense as the remaining 2-seeds were in the east. For geographical purposes, it also makes sense to keep the eastern 3-seeds to the east, leaving Notre Dame and Michigan for Green Bay and St. Louis. Notre Dame is within 400 miles of both cities and Michigan would have to fly to both. I wound up choosing to put Notre Dame in St. Louis on the basis that Notre Dame could probably draw more fans than Michigan could in that regional, as it's a 9-hour drive down to St. Louis from Ann Arbor.****

This leaves BC, RPI, Union, and Merrimack to be placed into regionals. In order to avoid intraconference matchups, we have to place BC against Union and RPI against Merrimack. I put RPI-Merrimack in Manchester as Merrimack is actually closer to Manchester than the University of New Hampshire is. This leaves BC-Union to the Bridgeport regional, rounding out the set.

*This assumption is not necessarily true. While the NCAA traditionally breaks ties with RPI, they can also do so via head-to-head comparisons or other means. They could well break ties in such a manner that will improve attendance. Or they could do something incredibly stupid for the sole pleasure of irritating people. After all, I'm pretty sure that the NCAA came up with the Pairwise system in the first place for that exact reason.

**The NCAA was kind of stupid for putting a regional in St. Louis. They generally fret about having half-full arenas and low attendance at the regionals. So putting a regional in a city that's far away from virtually every college hockey program and trying to fill an NHL arena is going to be very difficult. As such, the NCAA is probably hoping very much that the Pairwise changes such that Michigan, Notre Dame, and Nebraska-Omaha can all be placed in St. Louis.

***RIT can stay under the 400 mile limit to Manchester by using state roads. Not that it matters as RIT wouldn't be placed in Manchester in any scenario based on these seeds.

****This pick was the one I'm least certain about. On one hand, Notre Dame fans have done a very good job of supporting their non-revenue teams. On the other hand, Michigan hockey generally draws a fair group of supporters in the NCAAs wherever they play. However, this level of support is rarely enough to even fill a smaller arena if it's a long drive from Ann Arbor, so I put Notre Dame in St. Louis on the basis that fans in South Bend are more likely to make the substantially shorter drive to St. Louis.

being in that st louis regional would be killer. looks like the toughest regional if that bracket were to hold, while the manchester regional looks like a tea party

Nice breakdown.  Have to hope the team rights the ship a bit and wins most, if not all, of the rest of the games.  Being a third seed in St. Louis is scary, but there are only a few spots between that and being out of the tournament.  

If Air Force beats RIT for the AH spot -- eminently plausible -- I imagine AF would get placed as the # 4 seed in St Louis. Michigan could then very easily be sent out east. Also, as it is now, both OP and Seth have 6 teams from HE and ECAC staying in the east. I think that the committee will break things up a bit, preference to minimize travel not withstanding. Again, Michigan could end up coming east. Otoh, bet the committee would love to send notre dame and bc to Manchester.