Michigan football ranked #9 in SRS
Here's the link to Smart Football, where the column is posted. For those who don't want to bother, here is a description of the system:
The SRS takes only two factors into account: strength of schedule and adjusted margin of victory. Each game is given equal weight. Therefore, the sum of a team’s SOS and MOV rating is its SRS rating. A team could have an SRS rating of 60 by having an MOV of 30 and an SOS of 30, or an MOV rating of 40 and an SOS of 40. Once you have the SRS scores for each team, it’s very simple to understand how the system arrived at those ratings. Further, the numbers the system spits out are easy to understand: if Team A has a rating of 55 and Team B has a rating of 44, it means that Team A is predicted to be 11 points better than Team B. The units here mean exactly what you think they mean.
For starters, the road team is given 3 points for each game (but there is no home or road team for neutral site games). After that adjustment, all wins and losses of between 7 and 24 points as exactly that. So a 24-10 road win goes down as +17 for the road team, -17 for the home team. Wins of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7-point wins and losses of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7 point losses (except that road losses of 3 or fewer/home wins of 3 or fewer are graded as 0 point ties). This gives a very minor boost to teams that win by a couple of points. Finally, wins of more than 24 points/losses of more than 24 points are scored as the average between the actual number and 24. This is to avoid giving undue credit to teams that run up the score.
Now, the Top 10 SRS ratings after week 9:
Rk Team MOV SOS SRS W-L 1. LSU 24.5 43.9 68.4 8-0 2. Alabama 27.4 40.7 68.1 8-0 3. Oklahoma St 22.0 45.2 67.2 8-0 4. Stanford 27.4 39.2 66.5 8-0 5. Oklahoma 21.5 44.1 65.6 7-1 6. Boise St 22.7 41.2 63.9 7-0 7. Oregon 20.7 42.0 62.7 7-1 8. Wisconsin 21.5 38.0 59.5 6-2 9. Michigan 17.4 40.6 57.9 7-1 10. Texas A&M 9.9 46.3 56.2 5-3
And the Big 10:
8. Wisconsin 21.5 38.0 59.5 6-2 9. Michigan 17.4 40.6 57.9 7-1 13. Nebraska 12.3 42.4 54.8 7-1 17. Michigan St 9.1 43.7 52.9 6-2 23. Ohio State 5.8 44.7 50.5 5-3 28. Penn State 8.4 40.8 49.3 8-1 39. Illinois 6.2 39.7 45.9 6-3 50. Iowa 9.2 34.0 43.2 5-3 61. Purdue 2.3 37.2 39.4 4-4 67. Northwestern 0.5 37.4 37.9 3-5 98. Minnesota -13.8 43.6 29.8 2-6 107.Indiana -12.4 38.9 26.6 1-8
November 1st, 2011 at 5:35 PM ^
too bad there's no indiana v. minnesota cripple-fest on the schedule.
November 1st, 2011 at 5:38 PM ^
the Big Ten is tough to figure this year. No clear "best" team, given the outcomes and clear flaws of each. We thought Wisco had it together before they were pantsed by msu and osu. Whichever team wins the conference will have some serious questions going into the bowl game.
Rose against Oregon or Stanford? Not terribly optimistic about ANY team's chances, honestly.
November 1st, 2011 at 5:40 PM ^
Notre Dame is ranked #12. This ranking is invalid.
November 1st, 2011 at 5:45 PM ^
Toledo ranked above PSU?
Texas AM #10?
4-4 Mizzou #15?
WTF is this poll?
November 1st, 2011 at 5:47 PM ^
but Michigan's #9....So there might be something to it.
November 1st, 2011 at 5:52 PM ^
It's not a poll; it's a ranking.
November 1st, 2011 at 6:30 PM ^
TAMU and Missouri up there have a lot to do with how deep the Big 12 is this year, reflected by their strength of schedule. Missouri has lost 4 games, but they are to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas St and Arizona St. - all good teams, and only OSU was by more than 10 points. What team lower than 15 would have beaten any of those? Missouri also beat TAMU on the road and blasted their other opponents.
Similar for TAMU - lost by 4 to Arkansas, by 1 to OK St, and in overtime to Missouri. They blew out a good Baylor team and have wins against Texas Tech and SMU. Again, most teams below them would not do better with that schedule.
November 1st, 2011 at 6:46 PM ^
"Missouri has lost 4 games, but they are to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas St and Arizona St. - all good teams, and only OSU was by more than 10 points. What team lower than 15 would have beaten any of those?"
Texas Tech - sorry I had too, but your point stands.
November 1st, 2011 at 6:54 PM ^
Fair point. Getting blown out by Iowa St easily negates that though.
Also, TTU is hurt by not playing any decent OOC teams, but their remaining schedule (Texas, OK St, Mizzou and Baylor) is as tough as any and will show whether TTU is a good team or if that OU game was just a major fluke.
November 1st, 2011 at 11:42 PM ^
Also, Illinois beat ASU.
November 1st, 2011 at 6:47 PM ^
Head to head on a neutral field I'd take Toledo over Penn St. But you think it's so absurd it casts doubt on the whole rating system.
November 1st, 2011 at 6:33 PM ^
Because it's pertinent to this week - Iowa is #50. For comparison, SDSU is #51 and Purdue is #61.
November 1st, 2011 at 6:40 PM ^
Very similar results to sagarin.
November 1st, 2011 at 6:43 PM ^
I am skeptical, I don't see a quality win for us yet.
November 1st, 2011 at 7:04 PM ^
Funny (sad?) thing is, our two best wins according to this ranking are ND and SDSU, both OOC. If we beat up on Iowa this weekend, that will likely remain the same.
November 1st, 2011 at 8:57 PM ^
This obviously predicts Michigan as the favorite in all of their games. Factoring in the home and away three point spread:
Iowa: +11.7 points
Illinois: +9 points
Nebraska: +6.1 points
Ohio: +10.4 points
Now we don't even have to play!!
November 1st, 2011 at 9:40 PM ^
RU SRS?
November 1st, 2011 at 10:32 PM ^
we're #9 in SRS, but where do we rank in BSNS?