Michigan football ranked #9 in SRS

Submitted by dnak438 on

Here's the link to Smart Football, where the column is posted. For those who don't want to bother, here is a description of the system:

The SRS takes only two factors into account: strength of schedule and adjusted margin of victory. Each game is given equal weight. Therefore, the sum of a team’s SOS and MOV rating is its SRS rating. A team could have an SRS rating of 60 by having an MOV of 30 and an SOS of 30, or an MOV rating of 40 and an SOS of 40. Once you have the SRS scores for each team, it’s very simple to understand how the system arrived at those ratings. Further, the numbers the system spits out are easy to understand: if Team A has a rating of 55 and Team B has a rating of 44, it means that Team A is predicted to be 11 points better than Team B. The units here mean exactly what you think they mean.

 

For starters, the road team is given 3 points for each game (but there is no home or road team for neutral site games). After that adjustment, all wins and losses of between 7 and 24 points as exactly that. So a 24-10 road win goes down as +17 for the road team, -17 for the home team. Wins of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7-point wins and losses of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7 point losses (except that road losses of 3 or fewer/home wins of 3 or fewer are graded as 0 point ties). This gives a very minor boost to teams that win by a couple of points. Finally, wins of more than 24 points/losses of more than 24 points are scored as the average between the actual number and 24. This is to avoid giving undue credit to teams that run up the score.

Now, the Top 10 SRS ratings after week 9:

Rk  Team             MOV      SOS      SRS      W-L
1.  LSU              24.5     43.9     68.4     8-0
2.  Alabama          27.4     40.7     68.1     8-0
3.  Oklahoma St      22.0     45.2     67.2     8-0
4.  Stanford         27.4     39.2     66.5     8-0
5.  Oklahoma         21.5     44.1     65.6     7-1
6.  Boise St         22.7     41.2     63.9     7-0
7.  Oregon           20.7     42.0     62.7     7-1
8.  Wisconsin        21.5     38.0     59.5     6-2
9.  Michigan         17.4     40.6     57.9     7-1
10. Texas A&M        9.9      46.3     56.2     5-3

And the Big 10:

8. Wisconsin        21.5     38.0     59.5     6-2
9.  Michigan        17.4     40.6     57.9     7-1
13. Nebraska        12.3     42.4     54.8     7-1
17. Michigan St     9.1      43.7     52.9     6-2
23. Ohio State      5.8      44.7     50.5     5-3
28. Penn State      8.4      40.8     49.3     8-1
39. Illinois        6.2      39.7     45.9     6-3
50. Iowa            9.2      34.0     43.2     5-3
61. Purdue          2.3      37.2     39.4     4-4
67. Northwestern    0.5      37.4     37.9     3-5
98. Minnesota       -13.8    43.6     29.8     2-6
107.Indiana         -12.4    38.9     26.6     1-8

 

oriental andrew

November 1st, 2011 at 5:38 PM ^

the Big Ten is tough to figure this year.  No clear "best" team, given the outcomes and clear flaws of each.  We thought Wisco had it together before they were pantsed by msu and osu.  Whichever team wins the conference will have some serious questions going into the bowl game. 

Rose against Oregon or Stanford?  Not terribly optimistic about ANY team's chances, honestly. 

WolvinLA2

November 1st, 2011 at 6:30 PM ^

TAMU and Missouri up there have a lot to do with how deep the Big 12 is this year, reflected by their strength of schedule.  Missouri has lost 4 games, but they are to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas St and Arizona St. - all good teams, and only OSU was by more than 10 points.  What team lower than 15 would have beaten any of those?  Missouri also beat TAMU on the road and blasted their other opponents. 

Similar for TAMU - lost by 4 to Arkansas, by 1 to OK St, and in overtime to Missouri.  They blew out a good Baylor team and have wins against Texas Tech and SMU.  Again, most teams below them would not do better with that schedule.

sundaybluedysunday

November 1st, 2011 at 8:57 PM ^

This obviously predicts Michigan as the favorite in all of their games. Factoring in the home and away three point spread:

Iowa: +11.7 points

Illinois: +9 points

Nebraska: +6.1 points

Ohio: +10.4 points

Now we don't even have to play!!