Michigan Football Hypotheticals

Submitted by Mr. Yost on

I know we're living in the land of "OT" threads, but I wanted to discuss some Michigan football.

I've had a few random discussions and want to bring these hypothetical situations to the board! The place where first class Michigan knowledge is spewed without regard for human life...the place I call home.

With that said here are 5 hypotheticals, discuss!

1.   Assuming Michigan has it's spot LOCKED up in the B1G Championship game...do you risk injury vs. Ohio in the last game of the regular season when they are treating it like a bowl game and you're already set to play the next weekend in Indianapolis. Note: No national championship is on the line, so a loss doesn't hurt you. The winner of the B1G Championship Game is headed to the Rose, the loser likely headed to the Capital One.

2.   Devin Gardner plays WR this year and has a solid year, not great/spactacular, but solid. Morris and Bellomy have shown they're no better than Gardner at QB...do you keep Devin at WR where 's made an impact on set for a big 2013? Or do you put him back at QB to compete with the other two guys for the starting nod?

3.   It's midway through the year and Joe Bolden pulled dead even with Kenny Demens for the #1 spot at MLB. Do you play the senior with experience? Do you play the freshman to get him experience (knowing he's on par with Demens now, but it'll improve/help in down the road)?

4.   Michigan is up BIG vs. Air Force...it's now the 4th quarter. Denard is headed to the bench. Do you play Devin, to get him game reps at QB for this season and potentially next season. Do you get Devin more reps at WR and get Bellomy game experience?

5.   Hypothetically speaking, for the program, nationally, would it mean more to beat Alabama and Notre Dame and lose to MSU and OSU. Or beat Sparty and the Buckeyes and lose to the non-conferences foes.

goblueritzy92

May 4th, 2012 at 12:41 PM ^

1. Play them

2.  Put Gardner at QB

3. Demens

4. Play him at both positions

5. Please I just want to beat MSU. I hate losing to them. So beating MSU/OSU

Mr. Yost

May 4th, 2012 at 12:43 PM ^

I understand and completely agree with you...I HATE MSU right now, more than anything. If I saw Dantonio walking down the street, I'd have to seriously fight back the urge to punch him one good time in his weasel face.

With that said, I purposely put "nationally" in there...because that makes it a discussion, IMO.

jg2112

May 4th, 2012 at 12:43 PM ^

I'm addressing #2. If Devin plays WR this year and moves back to QB next year, AND gets his medical redshirt (which sounds possible), this is basically the MarQueis Gray situation in Minnesota. I think it's the right approach. Devin - Bellomy - Morris is a good depth chart for QB - by 2013 there should be enough capable WRs on the roster.

Now, #3 - you can play both, right? I think these coaches have proven the best player plays. If Bolden is better, get him in. If they're the same, go with experience and groom Bolden for 2013.

#5 - this year, it's a combo. The Alabama and Michigan State games are the two most important on the schedule. Michigan is due for a loss in the Notre Dame game, and the Ohio State game is the Buckeyes' bowl game. Neither would be a surprising loss. However, a win in the Bama or Sparty games would do wonders for team psyche.

2Blue4You

May 4th, 2012 at 12:43 PM ^

1. You play to beat the buckeyes no matter what.

2. Gardner is in the mix to start at QB in 2013

3. Rely on the senior.  Get the frosh in there more often to give Demens a breather and keep in fresh.

4. Play Devin

5. Beat Sparty and Ohio

Belisarius

May 4th, 2012 at 12:44 PM ^

Is this, like, a choose your own adventure? If I choose to keep DG at wide receiver and turn to pg. 58 am I going to fall into a pit of scorpions?

Kaminski16

May 4th, 2012 at 12:50 PM ^

  1. Ohio has a post-season ban this year, so this scenario couldn’t happen. Even if it did, you ALWAYS play to beat Ohio – this isn’t the NFL.
  2. Gardner could “compete” at QB and still get reps at WR, so both.
  3. If Demens and Bolden were exactly the same player, you play the senior. Our coach is Brady Hoke, not Urban Meyer.
  4. We would run the ball every down, so it doesn’t matter. Play Jack Kennedy.
  5. It would be MUCH more important to beat MSU and Ohio, if that happened, we would most likely be Pasadena bound. 

AZBlue

May 4th, 2012 at 1:26 PM ^

the hypothetical - "if you are locked into playing OSU 2 games in a row, what do you do?".

This would be the correct interpretation any year but this year.

As for the OP.

-You always play to beat OSU

-AL and ND would mean more to the program nationally/recruiting but OSU -MSU losses would sting alumni infinitely more

-DG is starting QB next year and should be prepped for it -however the coaches feel that can be best done - any free time can be spent catching bombs from Denard

MGoBeer

May 4th, 2012 at 12:51 PM ^

1. Beat Ohio

2. Play DG

3. Bolden

4. Play DG

5. Beat Ohio

 

I like the symmetry. On #5, I'd assume winning those two games would put us in the BCG which is more important and puts us in the national spotlight at the end of the year.

Hardware Sushi

May 4th, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^

Good post.

I disagree with your first point. While last year was an example of your scenario (MSU loses the BTCG and goes to Cap One bowl), I think there will be quite a few instances where the Big Ten CG loser goes to a BCS bowl and that makes the OSU game important in that respect.

If Michigan comes into the OSU game with 1 loss, beats Ohio and loses in the BTCG, a 2-loss Michigan team receives a BCS bowl bid. If Michigan leaves the OSU game with 2 losses and loses the BTCG, they'll likely end up at the Cap One Bowl (unless it's a crazy year where everyone is losing games at the top). So in that case, winning or losing still matters in the scheme of BCS bowling.

As for my opinion, there's no doubt I'd rather beat Ohio than play in a BCS bowl, injuries be damned. Winning the Big Ten Championship but losing to Ohio? That's a tougher question but I think I'd still rather beat Ohio (especially this year), even if the Big Ten Championship is Hoke's stated goal.

2. I think you wait to see what Chesson and Darboh do, what recruits we end up with, and if any other WRs step up. Ultimately, I think the best QB plays and that will be Gardner

3. I think they'll both get playing time. Demens will get more. They'll get Bolden experience when they can.

4. Devin. Definitely. Bellomy can play against Umass and I expect him to backup DG in 2013.

5. I don't know but I hate losing to OSU and MSU the most.

M-Wolverine

May 4th, 2012 at 12:54 PM ^

Which is ok, I don't mind them like some do.

1. That's easy. You always play to beat Ohio State.

2. Best man wins the job. Best QB is more important than a really good WR.

3. Dead even in everything is impossible. Physical play...and knowledge of the plays..ok...how about leadership? You want the seniors to lead your team. If the younger guy is better though, he gets to play. As said above, it's not like you're talking QB with a one year starter vs. a 3 or 4 year guy. They can both play, a lot.

4. Depends on who your back up is.

5. MSU and OSU easy. Finally losing to ND won't be that big a crime on the road, and Alabama will be a forgotten blip.  Lose to OSU or MSU, and it'll stick with you forever.

raleighwood

May 4th, 2012 at 12:56 PM ^

1.  It seems to me that Lloyd held some players back (although the injuries may have been significant enough to warrant it) against Wisconsin back in 2007 to get ready for the OSU game.  Michigan ended up losing both.  Beat the Buckeyes and let the chips fall in the B1G Championship game.

2.  Let Gardner compete at QB.  It would be my preference to red-shirt Morris if he doesn't win the job outright.  It's my impression that we might all discover Gardner has more value at WR but he has earned the opportunity to compete at his position of choice.

3.  The best player should be on the field the majority of the time.  If it's truly deadlocked, I'd go with Demens and experience.

4.  Devin is the # 2 QB at this point.  He should be the 2nd QB on the field until that changes.

5.  Since you threw the word "nationally" in there, it would obviously be bigger to beat Alabama and Notre Dame.  Anybody that beats 'Bama will get national attention.  Personally, I'd rather win the MSU and OSU games.

 

M-Wolverine

May 4th, 2012 at 1:34 PM ^

If you're ranking the big games in each group head to head, and then the lesser ones, then sure. But if you were to rank them in "national" importance it would probably be 1. Bama 2. OSU 3. ND 4. MSU.  Because while they were down last year they have Meyer now, and a lot more recent success than ND.  So you might get some of the national hype to go along with the victory.

RakeFight

May 4th, 2012 at 12:58 PM ^

You play Demens... not because of "loyalty," but because the value of senior leadership can't be measured and is most important later in the season. 

Realistically, they will both play... suppose it's just a matter of who "starts."

beenplumb

May 4th, 2012 at 12:59 PM ^

If you were a hotdog, and you were starving, would you eat yourself?

I know I would. First I'd smother myself in brown mustard and relish. I'd be so delicious.



harrycarey

CRISPed in the DIAG

May 4th, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^

1&5 - Beat both these neandraphucks whenever possible.  I will never take those rivalries for granted ever, ever again.

2&4 - Play Devin at QB whenever possible. I wouldn't show any of the WR looks until we have to.

3 - By mid-season, the depth chart becomes a strict meritocracy.  Competent Seniors will generally get the nod early in the year.  But when the conference schedule begins,  if Bolden is better, he plays.  

mgogiants

May 4th, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^

Over beating Bama anyday. Rather have 2 conference wins and shut Meyer/Dantonio up for a year than beat Alabama and really get only hype for a few weeks (which would then be lost losing to MSU)

jabberwock

May 4th, 2012 at 1:03 PM ^

1.  Just because we've broken the "Streak", doesn't mean it's been erased.  Always play to OSU to win 100%.

2.  DG @ WR now & forever.  If he's capable of still being #2 (or 3) back-up QB simultaneously? Great!

3.  Play both.  Senior always gets the start if the competition is close, Bolden subs, learns & takes over if his progress puts him markedly ahead.

4.  c # 2

5.  Nationally: Bama means more (by a long shot).  Personally: State means more (that "Streak" really needs to end too)

yzerman19

May 4th, 2012 at 1:02 PM ^

1. beat ohio

2. if only solid put him back at qb - if he is difference maker leave him there

3.  if only even, demens for experience. but not sure how even they can really be.  i would take the one better in run stopping over the one who is better in pass coverage. 

4. keep him at WR

5.  beat ohio and little bro.  not even close.

Hands Free

May 4th, 2012 at 1:03 PM ^

1. Beat Ohio

2. Gardner at QB - he has shown enough to challenge for the job, and was noted by Hoke as the #2 after spring anyway

3. Demens if he is playing well, alternating Bolden for rest if need be

4. Gardner

5. Beat them all, but Ohio and MSU over ND and Bama

Jmilan

May 4th, 2012 at 1:07 PM ^

1. It's the most important game on the schedule.

2. Play Gardner

3. Demens, but why not rotate Bolden in to keep Demens fresh and give Bolden some playing time.

4. If up big against Air Force, play Gardner at QB.

5. Beat OSU and MSU. See answer 1 for reason about OSU.l Beat MSU because I can't stand to see another year of Dantonio and his smug look talking about how awesome he is.

Mr Miggle

May 4th, 2012 at 1:12 PM ^

#1 - This is just beyond stupid. Beat Ohio!

#2 - I think Devin should have a large say in that decision.

#3 - They split time.

#4 - Devin plays QB.

#5 - Nationally, it would mean a lot more to beat Alabama and ND. Starting with two early losses would keep us off the national stage for much of the season. Winning those games might put us at the top of the polls.

In reply to by M-Wolverine

Mr Miggle

May 4th, 2012 at 2:30 PM ^

But it would be better for the national reputation for the program. Losing one game in Oct and one in November isn't quite crashing and burning, either. We should end up ranked higher that way as well. It would help the Big Ten in strength of schedule, which probably outweighs when the losses occurred. As far as preference, it's really a pretty silly hypothetical. It's not as if there was some legitimate strategy that would play into making such a choice.

M-Wolverine

May 5th, 2012 at 2:46 PM ^

Late season losses hurting more, particularly if it's more than one. I'd think it would hurt our BCS chance more to lose the last game of the season. And if you're thinking they're the only 2 losses (one in Oct one in Nov) to lose at the beginning means we've rolled off a bunch straight, and undefeated in the Big Ten with a shot at the Rose.

But there are so many variables.

FrankMurphy

May 4th, 2012 at 1:13 PM ^

1) Always play to beat Ohio. Always. I honestly can't believe anyone would ask such a question. 

2) Keep DG at WR.

3) Play Demens.

4) Depends on how committed DG and the staff are to playing him at WR. If that's where he's destined to play, then keep him there and put in Bellomy.

5) Beat Sparty and OSU. We're in the midst of a 4-game losing streak to Sparty, and our 7-game losing streak to OSU is still fresh in everyone's minds. Also, we haven't won in Columbus since 2000. I can stomach a loss to 'Bama because we're not on their level yet talent-wise. I can stomach a loss to ND because honestly, who really gives a shit about ND?  

reshp1

May 4th, 2012 at 1:20 PM ^

1. Play to win. The extra loss hurts you in terms of what bowl you end up in regardless, but especially if you lose the BIG championship. Plus it's fricking Ohio, and the first match-up with Urban. You gotta play to win.

2. I guess you ask what he wants and if he wants to play QB, then it's a competition like always.

3. Start Demens, rotate Bolden in to keep both fresh

4. Tough call. Depends on who had the better week of practice I suppose. If it's true mop up duty, they'll just be handing off mostly anyway so it may not really matter. If I had to call it, give the snaps to Bellomy so you has at least SOME in game experience.

5. Alabama would be a statement game more than the other three, win that one and you catapult in the rankings. ND would be the least pivotal of the three. Breaking the streak on Sparty would mean a ton internally to the team and fan-base, but nationally the OSU matchup will be bigger, especially since it'll be Hoke v Meyer for the first time.

DualThreat

May 4th, 2012 at 1:20 PM ^

Been a lurker for a while. Finally created an account. Hello MGoWorld!

1 - You play everyone, as hard as possible. It is "The Game". Part of what I think makes certain teams excel is their willingness to take risks and pull out all the stops, particularly against their biggest rival. Injures may happen, but you can't hold back in this game out of fear of them.

2 - You put Gardner at WR. But that doesn't mean he can't get reps at QB on the side. The rationale here again is risk based. You put your players where they can provide the most impact. You have team depth for a reason, of course, but if you have a weapon that can make a difference vs. keeping it in storage for potentially his entire UM career, you use him now. Again, do not let injury fear drive you when you have the opportunity for greatness.

3 - You create a situation/exercise/test where they cannot be tied. You show these players (and others on the team onlooking) that the best players will play. Simple as that. IF we take the hypothetical question at face value, then you have to assume that Demens' "leadership, experience, etc" qualities have been already rolled into the equation. In this case it really does come down to loyalty vs. potential for the future. In this close-call case, you play Bolden, but only because of his extra effort enrolling early.

4 - If you had to choose one or the other, get Devin more reps at WR and get Bellomy game experience. A weapon like Devin needs to be on the field more often.

5 - Most people are missing the question here. Of course we'd all rather beat MSU and OSU, but the answer to the question is Bama and ND.

Overall, the answers to 1, 2, and 4 depend on your risk preference. I say it's better to shoot for the stars and miss (i.e. take risks, NC potential) than shoot for nothing and hit it (i.e. be safe/onservative, avg 8/9 win season potential).

Mgodiscgolfer

May 4th, 2012 at 1:21 PM ^

1. Beat the butteyes

2.Well it is hypothetical.....depends and only if DG is average then you put him behind center

3. I have seen itn the past and when there is a deadlock you play the guy who has the most elegibility left.

4.This is the toughest question by far only and only if DG shows he belongs at wide receiver do you keep him there. I really hate this question.

5.This question is not fair because if we beat Bama and ND there is no way in hell we lose to the Sparties. Whats worse is another loss to the Spartans and I will walk off a cliff OK so yeah I will sell the farm to beat the sparties.  

 

LSAClassOf2000

May 4th, 2012 at 1:21 PM ^

1) You play Ohio at full tilt with the intention of winning.

2) I like the idea of Devin Gardner as a situation WR in certain packages - he is a great athlete and can be used that way, in my opinion. I don't think I change that in 2013 and give Morris and Bellomy more time to settle in if they have not done so at that point. Actually, it would be pretty interesting to see Gardner as the starting QB and still get time as a WR in certain packages, at the discretion of Borges.

3) I don't know how they would be exactly even. The question is this, I believe - who is playing better in a given week perhaps, but at MLB, both would get substantial time more than likely, given your parameters. More than likely, it would be Demens earlier in the seasons with Bolden getting more time progressively throughout, but the pace at which that occurs depends on individual development, injury, etc...

4) I would think Gardner is the clear QB in that situation. He is the number two QB anyway. The whole idea of using Gardner at WR, at least for the present and by his own account, is for certain packages, and I don't think you're going to lay out the various "nuclear options" in the playbook up big in what is more or less garbage time in such a scenario.

5) Not even an argument - best the Spartans and beat Ohio. The other two do not compare.

BeatOSU52

May 4th, 2012 at 1:28 PM ^

Didn't think that this was worthy of a new thread, but Michael Shaw has been waived by the Redskins according to the team's twitter feed (someone can post it elsewhere or in a new thread if you wish).

oHOWiHATEohioSTATE

May 4th, 2012 at 1:31 PM ^

everything I would normal believe in but BEAT ALABAMA! Im going all the way to Dallas and that victory would be really special. Also a 4-0 start probably means we climb up to #1 in the nation. We would also probably have the #1 recruiting class locked up by Oct 1st.

COB

May 4th, 2012 at 2:01 PM ^

things are extremely optimistic.  Michigan would be lucky to start in the top 10 and going 4-0 would certainly be a big boost but #1?  Who is USC, LSU, Oregon, UGA, OU etc. going to lose to that early?  Top 5?  Sure, that's a very real possibility but #1 would take a lot of stars aligning, especially that early. 

 

As for "probably have the #1 recruiting class locked up by October 1st"...well, counting chickens etc.  They are all verbal commits on October 1st and UT, UF, UGA and Bama could all pass UM by NSD, by October 1st...TBD I suppose but nothing would be "locked up". 

oHOWiHATEohioSTATE

May 4th, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^

I think we will start in the 8-12 range. A win vs Alabama to open the season probably catapults us into the top 5 by week 2. As for locking up the #1 class I simply ment its possible we have all our verbals locked in and that it could end up being the #1 class.

MosherJordan

May 4th, 2012 at 1:36 PM ^

1. "It is the most important game on that schedule." <Finger Points>

2. Move DG back to QB.

3. Bolden

4. Give Gardner reps at QB.

5. "It is the most important game on that schedule." <Double Finger Points> Seriously though, beating MSU and OSU is more important for us as it probably puts us in the BCG, and helps our midwest recruiting image more.

FrankMurphy

May 4th, 2012 at 1:54 PM ^

When you talk about beating 'Bama and ND, you really just mean beating 'Bama. I'd like to beat ND, but let's be honest: beating ND doesn't impress anyone.

ChicagoB1GRed

May 4th, 2012 at 2:33 PM ^

find it very interesting that 3 of the 4 games this thread muses about most wanting to win are non-division games.

I guess people are responding directly to the thread  topic's specific question, but---win against all your division rivals pretty much ensures winning your division, going to the B1G title, and the most satisfying season I would think.