Couple lines jump out, but I especially like Oregon only giving 7.
Couple lines jump out, but I especially like Oregon only giving 7.
That means Michigan will win, right?
You got it.
Also, Iowa is favored by 4.5, so it looks like MSU's magical run will come to an end.
Edit: I don't really believe that, because you can't be a Michigan Blank Hating God and not find the humor in MSU going undefeated this year.
I say the line goes up the closer to game time...
the three is on the light side. It could be that tight but I think the chances of a much wider win margin really favors M. I could see a 21+ point margin of victory for M, GO BLUE!
I hope you're right.
This is a prove it game for the team and the coaching staff. Desperate need to win is a 10.
Agree. The problem is, every game this season is more or less in that category for RR. Even if we manage to beat PSU, the good feelings from bowl qualifying will disappear if we follow it up with a loss to Illinois or Purdue for the third year in a row.
There've been far too many confident assurances over the last 2+ seasons by MGoBloggers that "Oh, we're better than (insert Big Ten team of choice) there's no way we'll lose to them. Anyone who disagrees is a pussy" for me to think any game home or away is a gimme. Given our record over that time, I think we should be an underdog wherever we play until we can prove that we deserve to be a favorite.
Love Michigan, but I just can't get too high on them on the road.
I desperately want them to prove otherwise! Until then... nothing's a gimme.
2-0 ON THE ROAD HOMESLICE
I heard a stat this week that was sort of scary (not sure if I read it here)....
Mark Dantonio has won as many Big Ten games in the Big House as RR has in the past three years.
That doesn't say a lot about home field advantage. I think that Michigan played really well in a night game in Iowa City last year. Happy Valley can be a tough place to play but if Michigan can jump on them early, that will take the crowd out of the game.
Can be somewhat interpreted as a negative comment toward RR. Get it out of here.
Yeah, I know. I got multiples negs for it. Those people are complete kool-aid drinking, lemming following morons.
It was simply a statement of fact....not beligerent at all. You can choose to interpret it any way you'd like.
I mostly agree, but I think our strong start gave us some margin for error. After the MSU and Iowa losses, that's gone, though. PSU has suffered almost as much attrition as we have this year and is starting a true freshman at qb. If we lose we can't blame it on talent, there will be no good excuse.
You could say the same for Purdue, but I don't think they're a realistic threat at this point.
How can anyone say that any team we face this year "isn't a realistic threat". I agree with Don above, in the take no-one for granted mold. We have not proven anything yet. Every one of these games is not a gimme and needs to be conceived a realistic threat until proven otherwise (i.e. Win).
time to put up or shut up starting with Penn State. Also, need wins over Ill and Purdue. I think we need to go 4-4 minimum in the Conference. It's time to start showing we can win in Conference.
So the next 3 games are must wins. At least some of us will be gracious if we lose to Wiscy and/or O-state.
I'd say 2+ weeks. Look at all the predictions of us dropping 40+ on Iowa and MSU in the prediction threads. And now I'm seeing 21 point wins called for here. What's the definition of insanity....? To win by 21 you actually have to hold the other team to 21 points less than you. Which I don't see happening if we score 42 or 21. But we can and better win this game. We need W's, not exciting scores.
So that's what? 7 points on a neutral field? I'm really hoping we play like we did against UCONN. Aside from BG, it's the only game this year I didn't have multiple heart attacks.
Home team always gets an automatic -3 then they set the line from there.
Also, your Farley avatar looks like a grabber in progress. Is that a fair representation of how it has been going for you most Saturdays this season?
Farley? No dude, that's me on the way home from the UMass game haha
Why does someone always bring up what it would be on a neutral field? Who cares, we aren't playing them on a neutral field.
MOAR 200/200 plz
And I'm delusional, because I could see it happening.
He was on pace for approximately 200/200 v Iowa before he got hurt. He may not have gotten 200 rushing yards due to the heightened need to pass, but he coulda got 200/200 vs. one of the best defenses in the country.
Thank you Captain Obvious!
sorry I've been wanting to do that
To be fair, Michigan's offense was averaging 1.16 points per posession and a paltry 4.5 yards/play when Denard went out with an injury.
After he went out, they averaged 3.5 points per posession and 7.2 yards/play.
That is hardly shocking. Pass plays normally gain more yards than running plays. We passed the ball the vast majority of the time when Forcier was in.
My point is that in all the glee over OMGDENARDHEADEDFOR200/200AGAINSTIOWA'STOUGHDEFENSELOLZ!!! people are ignoring that the offense was ineffectual with Denard at the helm.
Only on the scoreboard. 4.5 yards per play is not that bad. It's not as incredible as what we did earlier, but it's not poor. You get that on first and second down, and you're facing 3rd and 1.
It's not that bad but it's not good either. It's significantly worse than what Wisconsin and Arizona did to the "vaunted" Iowa defense and is on par with Penn State's performance:
Think about it this way: If someone asked you which offense put up more yards/play against Iowa's defense, Michigan with Denard at the helm or Penn State, everyone would guess Michigan w/Denard. But they were exactly the same.
NB: Michigan's 4.5 yds/play under Denard is extracted from the following drive chart:
I wouldn't say your delusional at all. PSU defense is horrid.
Yeah but their offense doesn't have dilithium
Their offensive is pretty mediocre (maybe worse without Bolden) and our defense is horrible.
Our offense is awesome and their defense is average (at best).
I think we'll be okay.
It was PSU -2.5 last week (on Sportsbook's futures)
-3 sounds about right being on road.
I will take a one point win every game for the rest of my life all things considered.
The "ultimate suffering game" that keeps popping in my head is the 5-0 1995 Purdue game. I would happily sit through 3.5 hours of cold, snow and discomfort to watch Michigan win without them even scoring a TD.
Honorable mentions that include TDs: 1998 at NW, 2006 vs. NW and 1999 vs. Purdue.
I'd substitute '92 Illinois (a 22-22 tie that clinched the Rose Bowl in heavy snowfall) for '99 Purdue. '99 Purdue wasn't on that level of discomfort.
Though I don't remember it being THAT bad, but it certainly doesn't rank on his win by 1 satisfaction scale. Playing a team tough to assure a title with a tie is one thing. Getting to the point where the student section is chanting "1, 2, 3, 4, X, ...we want mmoooooorrrrrreeeee fumbles!!" because you giving the game away was not very satisfying (as you're fumbling away a chance at a National Title).
It wasn't hugely satisfying to tie a mediocre Illinois team. But weather-wise it was down there with the worst. '99 Purdue was not that bad; I don't know why he mentioned it. (Not to mention that it was an awesome game - a 38-12 ass-kicking,)
Good weather forecast for Saturday night. Will be clear, dry, and cool in th high 40's or low 50's. Would love to see the type of game we have needed all year. Get up by 21 and then start exchanging scores. The best thing for our D will to relax by playing with a big lead. Go Blue!
I had seen chance of showers, but I'm not counting on anything until about wednesday. Weather changes too much this time of year. Praying it doesn't rain because cold rain suck...winning or losing cold rain just sucks.
through their asses. Michigan by 21.
This and every win is important to the whole team and us fans not just RR. I don't agree that this is a statement win for just RR. I really hope Molk, D rob, and Martin are back healthy(early season healthy) if they are I'll go with a win by 10.
My predictor has UM by 11
I don't think people give RichRod's teams enough credit when they have more time to prepare. I like Michigan this week.
Can you give examples? I don't know what RRs record is after bye weeks.
Thanks in advance
Don't know why I was negged tho.
Don't forget openers and bowl games. I looked them up, and since 2002:
Wins: WMU, Marshall, Syracuse, East Carolina, #25 Ga Tech, #8 Georgia, WMU, UConn
Losses: #14 Florida State, #21 Wisconsin, #23 Maryland, Virginia, Utah
Only in the Maryland and Virginia losses were they ranked higher and therefore favored. I'm not looking it up, but WVU was almost certainly the underdog against Georgia, and may have been against GT too. Come to think of it, Michigan may have been favored against Utah too, but LOL. So:
Exceeded Expectations: #25 Ga Tech, #8 Georgia
Met expectations: WMU, Marshall, Syracuse, East Carolina, WMU, #14 Florida State, #21 Wisconsin, Virginia, UConn
Did not meet expectations: #23 Maryland, Virginia, Utah (LOL)
I'd call that a 11/14 expectation quotient, or 12/14 if you consider 2008 Michigan losing 23-25 to 2008 Utah "exceeding expectations".
Please win....if for no other reason to keep this board from having a complete and total meltdown if they don't.
Full force UM tailgating, plus having my 2 boys (12 and 9) at their first UM game (at night no less) will bring our boys the additional Karma needed for victory. After the verbal abuse I took in Happy Valley last time, I hope we...well....I hope PSU gets an overdose of D-Rob.
a heavy dose of Shaw and Hopkins with a couple long TD runs by Denard sprinkled in.
but then again neither did Iowa, or for that matter did MSU. If we don't beat ourselves with turnovers ... we win by at least 14. Look for Denard to bust a couple of big ones - the week off had to help this team !!!
Go Blue !
but then again neither did Iowa, or for that matter did MSU
lets hope PSUs "not stopping us" doesn't involve holding us to less points than they score.
You mean The University of Penn State, of course. Everybody mumbles.
I think discipline is key - both while making good decisions and not getting hit with penalties.
We had a great shot at both MSU and Iowa ... unfortunately Michigan beat Michigan in both these games (scoring 500+ yards on the fabled Iowa defense and ending up on the losing side)
As long as RR and the team can keep those mistakes out - we should win.
It's possible to score yards now?
any games for granted. The 4 BCS teams that we have beaten this year have a won-loss record of something like 12-17, and most of our games were close (while some of those teams have been blown out by other average teams (Navy over ND, IL over IU, etc). I will take the wins and the 5-2 record, but it hasn't done much to instill a lot of confidence in me. Regardless of how good our offense is, untill we show that we can stop the other team, every game could become a toss-up.
Let's hope that we can get on a roll by beating a bad Penn State team.
vote of support from Vegas, I have say that Penn State getting 3 puzzles me, even with the Bolden situation. While I know this isn't my dad's Penn State, they have punished us for the last two years, and we are in their house under the lights. Perhaps the Bolden situation is playing into it, but this is a pick'em if I have ever saw one. Statisticly, they have a better defense than Michigan State and are in Iowa's neighborhood I believe in terms of yards surrendered. I am not saying that it is impossible that Michigan wins this game, but it does surprise me that the odds-makers are expecting us to.
they have punished us for the last two years.
Most of the "they" that did the punishing are either graduated or injured.
I'm taking UM -2 over PSU and OSU -25.5 over Minnesota parlayed.
With Bolden starting, I think that the Penn State offense will look a lot like the Notre Dame offense looked without Dayne Crist. I doubt that we'll shut them out for a half, but I think that 25 points will probably be enough to win this game. I think that we'll be up in the 30s, at least. It was ridiculous that we were favored against MSU and only 3-point dogs against Iowa. I think that this spread is off too, but in the opposite direction this time. I like us to win this one by more than a touchdown. A UConn-ish level blowout wouldn't surprise me in the least. A 28+ point victory wouldn't even surprise me.