Michigan Draft Decisions......hold me tightly.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2014/03/mitch_mcgary_nik_stauskas_glen.html
Here are some qoutes just updated after the Kentucky Game. Interesting qoutes from all 3!
We have 3 B1G decisions on our hands at the moment about a week sooner then we all would have liked. Stauskas, McGary and Robinson all have large and looming decisions to make. Regardless of what they decide the past two years have been an absolute treat and they have represented the University well both on and off the court.
Stauskas- He is ranging anywhere from 11-18 in the 1st round.
Nik has a polished overall offensive game and a deceptive ability to get to his spots on the floor. He is an exceptional shooter and does not shy away from the big moment. He is not an uber-elite athlete or defender. If he stays he might vault into the top 10 and round out his athleticism and defense with another year with Sanderson. I'm not sure that he has much left to prove on this level and it would be a fairly self-less decision to come back. He has the talent to play in the league now and the tools to be a solid starter in the future. Verdict: Likely Gone.
McGary- Mitch is a 6ft10 263lb beast with quickness and great hands. He possesses the ability to score from out to 17 feet and plays with a V12 motor. The problem is that his back injury cost him a chance to showcase more of what we saw last season and is the type of injury that a cutthroat NBA will not excuse. Mitch has an opportunity to really inflate his draft stock by returning and performing next season. He could go 2nd round this season or maybe even late 1st if he had an amazing recovery off his injury and showed scouts he was back to normal. Those are a couple of "ifs' that I can't see any logical comfort in. McGary would be the Premiere Big in the B1G next season and would likely garnish gobs of attention. He would need to perform under this microscope but I have no doubt that he would.
Mitch is a transcending player that is loved by the University of Michigan and all of it's fans. We lost today because he could not go...lets just be real. He watched us get "beat up" down low and could do nothing to help. I just don't see it in the stars that his last experience at Michigan is helplessly watching a Final Four berth be just missed knowing he could have made all the difference. It feels proper for Stauskas to make the jump but I can't say the same for McGary. #Unfinishedbusiness. That is the fan in me and all of us talking lol. I think that next season Beilein could allow Mitch to play the 4 and grow with the position. I think both the University and Mitch win. There are too many ?s about him jumping into the cutthroat business of the NBA to logically make that choice. We don't know what he is being told but everything I've seen has him as a composite pick in the mid second round. Thats a monster risk. The undertone of him returning last year for "one more" year is undercut by his injury. Verdict: Returning.
GRIII- Oh man. Has there ever been a more puzzling "Star" then GRIII @ Michigan? He has great basketball skills and flashes of brilliance. Athletically he is the real deal. His jumper is smooth and he has range. Defensively he is solid and electrifying as a Finisher. The questions have seemingly always been his drive and motivation which seems to fluctuate. Sometimes GRIII doesn't seem interested to be honest. He doesn't show consistent ability to get HIS OWN SHOT which leaves a lot of his production in the hustle, transition and wide open jumper categories. His basketball skill would suggest that he could pretty much do what he wants on the court and he does AT TIMES. I find it truly fascinating. Has there ever been a kid that made you jump out of your seat and holler out of awe inspired joy like Glenn? On the flip side there have been many bad on court basketball decisions and sort of lack luster halves turned in by Glenn. I think Glenn deserves a PASS on all of this because he was truly playing out of positon all year and this genuinely displeased him. Today for example, we asked him to give up 3 inches and 60 pounds to Julius Randle on the block. Glenn is a 3 forced to play the 4 due to McGary's injury and Donnal's redshirt along with Smotrycz's transfer. This hasn't been fair to Glenn particularly when he returned under the assumption that he was going to be able to blossom as a 3 under Beilein. Life isn't fair and Glenn ended up contributing to a B1G Championship team in admireable fashion despite these circumstances.
I feel like Glenn will be doing himself a disservice by foregoing his junior year because he has only scratched the surface and is nearly a Lottery Lock next year as a 3 man under Beilein. In that last sentence lies the key. Can Beilein honestly promise him the 3 next year? It depends on if Mitch stays and forcing Zak Irvin and Kam Chatman to come off of the bench....which is pretty wild. GRIII with one more year is a danger to the B1G and will likely render him a top 5-10 pick with year one NBA potential. He is simply not there right now despite showing flashes of the ability. Glenn and Mitch are very close and one's decision will likely sway the other's. Glenn is a Composite pick in the 40's currently. There is room to move up but why forego a strong potential lottery spot next year for 2nd round money? I have genuine concerns that GRIII will be lost in the shuffle of NBA "athletes" if he jumps this season. I would love to be proven wrong ala THJ but I don't think Glenn has Timmy's fire yet.
Verdict: Reluctantly Stays
2015 Roster Outlook! Cheer up and Damn all things Royal Blue.
Ideally Reasonable Roster
Walton (so) - Spike (jr)
Levert (jr)- Irvin (so)
GRIII (jr)- Chatman(fr)/ Wilson (fr)
McGary (jr)- Donnal (fr)/ Beifeldt (jr)
Horford (Sr)- Doyle (fr)
or....with 3 departing sophomores...the following... ..
. Walton (so)- Spike (jr)
Levert (jr)- Transfer????
Irvin (so)- Chatman (fr) / Wilson (fr)
Donnal (fr)- Beifeldt (jr)
Horford (sr)- Doyle (fr)
P.S. I'm still confident that Beilein would make this a 20 win Sweet 16 team.
This team will need a transfer though. Massive hole at the 2 guard spot.
Missing on Blackmon and Booker becomes increasingly painful in this scenario.
If we are going to continue this trend of 2 and Throughs....we will not be able to miss on the recruiting trail at select postions without a step back in perfomance....just the nature of the beast. Obviously the Austin Hatch situation was unforeseen and altered things. Brunson and Coleman are becoming must haves for the 2015 class.
Final Thoughts: I think the return of McGary and Robinson would vault Michigan into Top 5 status next season and make us the favorite to win a lot more than just the B1G. The team atmosphere that Beilein has created is truly infectious and evidenced by the prevailing interest maintained by guys like Trey Burke and THJ even as they embark on their NBA careers I don't think any of these decisions is a no-brainer like a Parker of Wiggins but Stauskas is solidly in the first round before the Draft Combine. Nik is not a top 5 lock due to the Draft Combine generally favoring upside and athleticism which favors some of the other prospects at the wing position. I do think that given the right system, Nik could be a really good Pro relatively soon. He probably will and should go. GRIII and Mitch seem like a package deal to me and this could go 1 of 2 ways. I don't see one staying without the other. My brain says both will stay because I think they need the development and in Mitch's case the recovery time. My heart has this hopeless feeling that they might both set sail for the NBA......that may just be the morbid snake-biten fan in me. Either way all 3 of these kids put a smile on my face for 2 years and couldn't be happier to have cheered my heart of for them!
What about actual game experience? You know, playing in actual games? Like if Manny Harris and Darius Morris had stayed, they'd actually get to play basketball?
I think that is the most glaring omission from your post.
Did you think THJ would play as much as he did this year?
There is revisionist history on THJ right now. He was a late 1st round grade and many thought he'd struggle and eventually become a role player ...maybe. Lacked elite athleticism, lacked some ball handling as a 2, wasn't a great shooter, blah blah. Granted he plays for a horrid team that usually doesn't draft late in the 1st but he played way more than most thought as a rookie and is doing far better than most thought as a rookie. I have no idea how much any of our guys would play in the NBA....neither do they.
Damn, when I first read this, I thought you were saying Levert might transfer.
Levert is projected as a first rounder in 2015. He's probably staying, but I wouldn't say it's 100%.
What's a literally party?
March 31st, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^
Maybe he means 'Lite rally' party: throwing a kegger, serving Miller Lite, and wants us all to rally to his party.
FREE BEER!
That's the one thing that could push GR3 and McGary back for another season is that next year's draft is gonna be a ton weaker than this year's is.
Stauskas and GRIII leave, Mitch comes back. I think GRIII showed significant improvement over the course of the year, and the NBA will draft him reasonably high based on potential. Stauskas will absolutely dominate in the league next year and I'm really looking forward to it
OK OK. I love Stauskas and he can certainly be good in the NBA since he's not small and is Not Just a Shooter(TM, even though it seems all the broadcasters stopped saying it). But he's going to dominate the league NEXT YEAR? That's crazy talk.
I could see how you could get that from what I said. I meant I have resigned myself to the fact he is leaving, but that he will eventually be a great NBA player.
I'll be glad to see Robinson gone. He's a mediocre three point shooter, terrible ball handler, and good athlete. That's all he's been in his two years here. Far too passive as a player. Poor lateral quickness. Zero handle.
Shook my head so much at his taking back to back pull up mid-range pull ups. The defender was just backing up, hoping he'd jack it up. And he did. Low basketball IQ.
However, I think your post is way off base. Michigan will be a much better team next year, if GR III comes back. I don't think anybody could argue otherwise. Also as other people have mentioned you have to give GR III, some credit, for playing out of position.
He's out of position everywhere in the lineup. Too small to be a four, lacks the lateral quickness, handles, and shot to be a three. And he's a small three at that.
I think you are thinking of NBA 3s, not NCAA 3s. Are you suggesting GR3 cannot play the 3's of Purdue, Penn State, Illinois, or heck an Iowa State?
Denzel Valentine gets his knob slobbed over and is a college 3 for an NCAA Elite 8 team. He makes turnovers all over the place and jacks up ill advised shots from all over the place. GR3 is a better player than Valentine outside of court vision/passing. He is also a decent not great shooter - what doesn't take many shots in the mid range - he is either finishing around the rim or shooting 3s most of the time. He actually shot better last year than this.
People see our players day in and day out and see all their warts, then seem to think there are NBA prospects on every other team.
do you realize he has been playing out of position both years? do you realize Beilein all but promised him the opportunity to play at the 3 instead of the 4 spot this year? do you realize how frustrated this has made him?
I can't blame him at all. he is an amazing athlete who hasn't been able to showcase his skills to the fullest. he has accepted that and been completely professional about it. he realizes that next year will probably be more of the same if he stays. I can't blame him for leaving, and I hope he is utlized to his full potential in the NBA.
from midrange near the top of the key. That's his sweet spot. Normally I hate mid range jumpers, but in that case, it's a good shot for GRIII because he converts it at a high rate. You get higher expected points with him shooting mid range jumpers as opposed to shooting 3s where he shot about 29%.
His 3 pt shooting % has improved since Purdue game and has made at least 1 3 pointers in every game.
Because Nik, Caris, and GRIII are all very comfortable with that shot. If you're comfortable with that shot and getting chased off the 3 pt line, it isn't necessarily a bad shot just because it's a long two. A long two is bad when you get chased off the 3 pt line and settle for a shot you aren't comfortable with, and Michigan didn't do much of that.
GRIII has a pretty comfortable stroke and I think if he played his natural position more his legs would be fresher, thus resulting in a more consistent 3 pt %. I could see him making a TH Jr type bump in that stat if he came back and played the 3, probably being a mid-to-high-30% type shooter from behind the arch, but I don't see him getting a majority of minutes at the 3 if he comes back either.
I also think a lot of it was between the ears for GRIII during his mid-season slump. He was pretty solid shooter once he got over that.
If Mitch and Glenn come back, I could see Donnal starting at the 4.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:50 AM ^
is that he gets to play the 4. I suppose it doesn't matter that much in JB's system what numbers you call them, I just think Mitch and Glenn will want another big playing with them to slide them down a spot on the defensive end.
Ok, so 30 pounds and 3-4 inches.
Not knowing basketball a whole lot, wouldn't the ideal lineup involve McGary or Horford or whoever's there at the 5 and then a stretch big at the 4? Then we'd have more size but still have a lot of range from 3. Hopefully Donnal will be pretty good next year. Is Bielfeldt supposed to be a stretch big? I realize he's not a huge recruit, but neither was Morgan.
People are too hard on GRIII. One thing I don't think anyone has mentioned so far is that he's playing out of position. He should be a 3. That's been part of his problem.
There is of course a chance they all do go, but to say that number is 100% is kind of absurd. I think Stauskas is the only one of them that is close to 100%. Both McGary and Robinson are considered early second rounders right now. If they don't get a projection higher than that after individual workouts they could both possibly be back. It would be probally be in their best interest to do so at that point, given the lack of a guaranteed contract for second round picks and the fact that they both have the talent to be lottery picks in what may be a weaker draft next year.
Beilein playing a GR III at the 3, if McGary comes back, might be enough convince him.
Where is Mitch more likely to get injured? Banging with college kids for ~35 games over ~5 months or with NBA guys for ~85 games over ~8 months.
If he gets drafted in the 2nd round and gets injured next year, then he may be SOL without seeing pro $$$.
If he comes back, I think he's more likely to get healthy, and he's very likely to be dominant and move up to a high draft pick where he'll get guaranteed pro $$$.
His situation is different than say a healthy junior in football who's going to be drafted high contemplating a return for his senior year and worrying about injury.
I don't have time to read every single post, but I'll say this about Robinson.
He doesn't like playing the 4, and I don't blame him because he's too small and he won't be playing there in the NBA. I think he's likely to play the 4 next year if he returns because Michigan once again won't have a whole lot of depth in the frontcourt. Assuming McGary and Horford both return, either McGary starts at the 5 and Horford comes off the bench OR Horford and McGary play together. Either way, the backup options (Bielfeldt and Donnal) are unlikely to be as effective as Robinson would be.
Beilein has done a great job of bringing this program around and coaching the team, but the bottom line is that he hasn't recruited enough size to play with the big boys (like Kentucky) up front. Michigan has to rely on good shooting, ball movement, etc. to get them out front and hope that they can make enough plays to carry the day, because defense/rebounding aren't emphasized with whom they recruit/put on the floor. (I'm not saying they don't teach rebounding and such, but there's only so much that a bunch of 6'8" or shorter guys can do.)
GRIII may get more rotation at the 3 next year, but he's likely still starting at the 4 and getting most of his minutes at the 4 if he comes back. Walton, Spike, Irvin, and Caris aren't going to have two on the bench in place of McGary and Horford with only a FR being a reasonable backup behind them. It's much more likely that Walton, Caris, and Irvin start 1-2-3, with GRIII at the 4 and McGary at the 5, with the other bigs rotating in behind. Add in Chapman, who provides another wing player, and it doesn't really have me believing GRIII is going to be getting a ton of reps at SF next year if he came back.
Agree with both of you. A combination of not recruiting enough good bigs, and the fact that our offense requires so much spacing to work, that it just looks like a car running on a flat tire every time we run 2 bigs out there.
If GR3 and Mitch stay, I don't see how GR3 isn't the starting 4 again. The best 5 are clearly Walton, Irvin, Levert, GR3, Mitch.
The only thing working against these guys is that this draft is loaded. There will be 2nd rounders who would have been lottery picks last year. They'll have to dazzle at the workouts.
And this could be wrong as I don't follow the NBA draft very closely, but the "loaded" draft is a bit misleading, though there is some truth still.
The top tier is stacked, like picks 1-10. Then the tiers after that are pretty normal in amounts, but it's the top 10 that is loaded, not the pure depth. After the 2nd tier runs its course (around pick 18) it's pretty much a toss up with who is a late first rounder and who is a 2nd rounder. Basically, from my understanding, there is a ton of uncertainty at that point, which with the NBA rules is kind of a sucky place to have a ton of uncertainty.
Having 2 bigs isn't necessarily a bad thing. The problem this year was that neither Horford, Morgan or Max have a 15-17 jumper. Ideally, at least one of your two big men can hit a 15-17 jumper. It prevents his defender from sagging off and clogging the middle and makes the pick and roll even more tough to defend cause the roll man can either roll to the basket or set up for the mid range jumper.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^
If Mitch and Glen come back, I could see JB playing Donnal or Horford a lot with Mitch. It makes sense basketball wise and it may be a pre-condition to those guys returning.
There is enough depth there with Max and possibly one of Doyle or Wilson being able to play a couple minutes.
So they never develop into NBA level locks.
Gary Harris would've been a B1G POY at most schools. Everyone else on their team does just enough to help them win, but not enough to make an NBA type name for himself.
You put any guy from their starting 5 on the majority of the teams in the league and there is a good chance he doesn't stay early (Harris is gone anyway, he was good enough to break that Izzo ceiling - but still after his 2nd year).
It's just the way Izzo coaches. He controls EVERYTHING from cradle to grave...look at how many timeouts he calls IN game. He never allows anyone to show creativity or make a play, it's ALWAYS within the framework of the offense or the play he designs.
It works, so you can't knock him. But it's the answer to your question. Izzo is the reason.
If you want to showcase YOUR game, go to Kentucky...or even Michigan which is more about spacing and movement than it is about set plays.
I think Harris could have gone last year and been selected end of the first round, but injuries really hurt his stock and coming back and staying healthy was really the only risk for him, now he's solid in the mid-first round, where he would have been last year without the injuries. To say Harris doesn't have the talent is misleading, because he's at worst near-equivalent to everyone on your list of Michigan players besides Burke.
Dawson could have probably after his FR year, where he was a freak athlete that hadn't developed a jump shot yet. His potential was sky high and probably warrented a late first round pick type. But he came back and didn't improve his range or handling at all, and now is stuck without a position at the next level. But his athletic ability is as high as anyone on Michigan's roster including GRIII.
Payne needed time to develop an all around game, and you're correct about Appling.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:13 AM ^
The reason MSU players don't jump to the pros early is because Izzo doesn't give them a very long leash unless they can play defense. Players out of high school can be lights out shooters and great at slashing and driving, but very rarely do you get somebody out of high school who is a lock down defender during their freshman year of college. Defense takes more time to grow into and learn than offense. It's just the philosophy of the coach and the reason why Appling gets major minutes over Travis Trice, despite Trice leading the team in 3 pt % and overall offensive efficiency.
Harris would have likely gone last year had his shoulder injuries not scared some teams and really hurt his draft stock. So by coming back he solidified a first round pick.
Payne didn't really have much of an option until he was a JR, and at that time he was a borderline 1st/2nd round pick. The difference between leaving as a HR compared to as a SR is little, as you're already considered "old" by NBA draft standards. So by coming back a 4th year he improved his outside game and helped his stock.
Appling was always a 1st/2nd round border guy, probably closer to a 2nd round type, and never grew into a better player to feel comfortable leaving. But he also hadn't hit a "ceiling", as improving his jump shot really could have propelled him into the first round. That jump shot didn't come too well, and his wrist injury probably will result in him going undrafted now. But by never really approaching his ceiling and never being a comfortable 1st round selection, it didn't make sense for him to ever leave.
Dawson could have left as a FR and been a 1st round pick, a la GRIII. This was based on athleticism and potential, with the idea he could develop a jump shot and play the 3 in the NBA. But he came back and kind of proved he couldn't hit a jump shot, and now he's stuck as a 2nd round type. But the allure of coming back and proving he could improve his jumpshot, there by propelling him into lottery pick status, was what brought him back, I think similar to both McGary and GRIII (by coming back they had both a lot to gain and a lot to lose). Those player bet on themselves and it hasn't worked out well for any of them yet.
The problem GRIII faces is similar to the one Dawson faces. This year is pretty much GRIII's last chance to play the potential card. After this year his draft position will be based on results alone. If he improves, that's great, but if he doesn't improve enough, if he's stick stuck playing a lot at the 4, then he is bottom of the 2nd round at best. GRIII was a first round lock that wanted to be a top 10 player and it didn't work out, now he's got to question to I risk not being drafted for a chance to move back into first round, or do I go where my potential may at least by me some time as a 2nd round pick. TH Jr succeeded doing the former, but many players have also failed at the former and would have been better off doing the latter.
Good comments and generally agree with all this.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^
Agree with all except Dawson going to the NBA after his freshman year. He tore his ACL at the end of his freshman year and there was no way he was going to take the chance to declare. Last year was a bit disappointing for him because he would get winded and his conditioning wasn't there. This year he was a completely different player and showed flashes of a facing the basket game.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:24 AM ^
But I think, without that then, that he would have been in that type of situation. But certainly with a torn ACL making that jump would have been ill-advised.
As for Dawson improving, I think he improved a lot at finishing around the rim and being a face-up 4 in the college game. He was pretty damn good in this tournament. But he can do that at his size/strength in the college game. He can be a really good face up 4 in college. I still don't think he's improved his range or handling enough to have a position at the next level though. He's still an inside of 7 feet kind of guy that can face up and shoot over college 4s because they are worried about his athletic ability at driving to the basket and finishing right at the rim. At the next level, the lenght/size combo of NBA 4s wouldn't allow him to get as clean of looks as a face up type.
I do think, at worst, he'll have a good career in Europe, and if he decides to come back he has improved enough around the rim to be an All-B1G type 4.