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Michigan Basketball not a top 25 team? Huh?

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September 27th, 2012 at 1:55 PM

#1

robbyt003's picture

Joined: 10/25/2010

MGoPoints: 9974

Michigan Basketball not a top 25 team? Huh?

The Detroit Tigers are up 4-0 early and well we need something else to complain about then. Apparently this Dan Hanner has never heard of Glenn Robinson III and he thought McGary was going to be our entire team next year. It's a pretty good read, and it does bring up a good point that we did lose arguably our top three 3-point shooters from last year.

LINK from umhoops.com

Dan Hanner, who writes for Real GM and has been featured in Basketball Prospectus, has noticed a trend in his 2012-13 computer projections. Hanner’s system has dropped Michigan significantly from his original spring projections. Michigan has dropped so far that Hanner doesn’t think the 2012-13 Wolverines are a top-25 team in the preseason. The reasoning: Mitch McGary’s fall in the recruiting rankings (3 to 26) and Evan Smotrycz’s transfer.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:07 PM

#2

NFG's picture

Joined: 04/24/2012

MGoPoints: 30687

Wow. This guy must also think

Wow. This guy must also think that the South won the war and that Dr. Pepper 10 is for women too.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:37 PM

(Reply to #2) #3

profitgoblue's picture

Joined: 09/01/2009

MGoPoints: 19557

A lot of people down here

A lot of people down here think the South won. Those same people still fly Dixie flags but that's neither here nor there.

September 27th, 2012 at 4:37 PM

(Reply to #12) #4

saveferris's picture

Joined: 07/02/2009

MGoPoints: 15690

Huh?

A lot of people down here think the South won.

Robert E. Lee and the 13th-15th Amendments disagree with them.

September 27th, 2012 at 5:42 PM

(Reply to #28) #5

WolvinLA2's picture

Joined: 11/13/2009

MGoPoints: 52761

Thanks for clearing that up

Thanks for clearing that up for us.

September 27th, 2012 at 8:51 PM

(Reply to #12) #6

superstringer's picture

Joined: 02/04/2009

MGoPoints: 10335

war, you say?

I believe those folks down there don't recognize the Civil War...they call it the War of Yankee Aggression.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:53 PM

(Reply to #2) #7

theNUB's picture

Joined: 10/04/2009

MGoPoints: 940

ITS NOT FOR WOMEN

ITS NOT FOR WOMEN

September 27th, 2012 at 3:01 PM

(Reply to #2) #8

Joined: 07/17/2009

MGoPoints: 1038

Re: Civil War

I currently live in Atlanta, GA and Stone Mountain State Park has a laser lightshow that re-enacts the Civil War every weekend. On the mountain, they bring a carving (similar to Mount Rushmore) of Robert E. Lee, Stonewall Jackson, and Jefferson Davis to life as they battle on. This ends by Robert E. Lee breaking his sword, the shards of which unify to become the southern states while they blast "The South will Rise Again". Everyone goes crazy. Correction: everyone is crazy.

September 27th, 2012 at 3:08 PM

(Reply to #19) #9

NFG's picture

Joined: 04/24/2012

MGoPoints: 30687

If I could moderate this post

If I could moderate this post as "wow, that is fucking sad." I would, instead +1 for insightful.

September 27th, 2012 at 3:48 PM

(Reply to #19) #10

Tommy Want Wingy

Tommy Want Wingy's picture

Joined: 01/23/2011

MGoPoints: 228

I had to log on specifically

I had to log on specifically to respond to this. I too live in Atlanta, and the laser lightshow is amazing! I go a couple times a summer just to people watch. No better way to spend a hot summer afternoon than getting all liquored up and listening to them babble about the "War of Northern Aggression" to a soundtrack.

September 27th, 2012 at 5:27 PM

(Reply to #25) #11

jericho's picture

Joined: 07/04/2009

MGoPoints: 2702

I had to log on just to +1

I had to log on just to +1 your screen name and avatar. I love that movie and I'm glad it's now on Netflix so I get to watch it way too many times.

September 27th, 2012 at 4:46 PM

(Reply to #19) #12

Joined: 09/11/2011

MGoPoints: 10

Is this the show?

Stone Mountain Park's Lasershow in "Mountainvision"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmJtLuWSbS4

Evidently, this was recorded in 2011. There appears to be a part referencing those "fine southern gentlemen" at 2 minutes /s

The end at 4 minutes and 50 seconds does show all of American and an American flag...

October 1st, 2012 at 10:14 AM

(Reply to #30) #13

snarling wolverine

snarling wolverine's picture

Joined: 12/14/2011

MGoPoints: 42991

Embedded

I like that they played the ESPN college football theme at 1:20.

September 27th, 2012 at 5:34 PM

(Reply to #19) #14

stetgor's picture

Joined: 03/27/2011

MGoPoints: 234

Wow, I can't believe they still do that!

I spent a summer in Atlanta in the 80's and remember seeing that. I also remember the golf course at Stone Mountain, which if I remember right, was pretty fun. Thanks for the trip down memory lane!

September 27th, 2012 at 3:48 PM

(Reply to #2) #15

Bryan's picture

Joined: 07/10/2009

MGoPoints: 13410

Sometimes I wish

That Sherman had burned more of the south...wait...I always think that

September 28th, 2012 at 1:59 AM

(Reply to #26) #16

Joined: 10/11/2010

MGoPoints: 2320

Come on man

That's like a Brit saying he wished Cornwalis had burned more of America.

Seriously, I know the south has a few red-necks, but we have red-necks in Cali too man. Jeez, if you're going to hate intolerant people, stop judging a whole region of a country by what you hear on radio/TV. It's oxymoronic.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:06 PM

WolvinLA2's picture

Joined: 11/13/2009

MGoPoints: 52761

Someone should introduce him

Someone should introduce him to Stauskas. We'll be just fine behind the arc.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Baldbill's picture

Joined: 04/09/2009

MGoPoints: 3579

DP

Ooops Double post, sorry.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Baldbill's picture

Joined: 04/09/2009

MGoPoints: 3579

I don't mind someone

I don't mind someone under-rating us, I think we have a very young team. One that has lots of talent, but it may need to prove itself. I think this is better than to be hyped up too high then have a fall if some of the breaks don't fall our way.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Joined: 07/07/2012

MGoPoints: 14737

In this instance

The man named "Dan Hanner" is not smart.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Erik_in_Dayton's picture

Joined: 12/03/2008

MGoPoints: 34174

He makes some good points, but...

The idea that the team was ever going to center around McGary is just wrong-headed. I'm not ready to pencil Robinson in as an impact player, and I worry about the losses of Novak, Stu, and Smot, but this is going to be a Top 25 team. This is a deep, talented bunch...I agree with Baldbill, though, that I don't mind this team being underrated. I think anyone who is buying Final Four tickets is getting ahead of themselves.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:47 PM

(Reply to #7) #22

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 16370

Based on what I've seen and hear

I am already penciling GRIII as an instant impact player. To me, he's the crown jewel of the class and JB wanted him long before he exploded into stardom.

What team in the country would you rank ahead of Michigan based on returning talent and incoming freshman class? As of now, I can count 3-5 teams. That is a top 5-10 team and has arguably the best PG in the country in Trey Burke.

September 27th, 2012 at 3:00 PM

(Reply to #7) #23

MGoLogan's picture

Joined: 03/07/2012

MGoPoints: 890

I understand not wanting to

I understand not wanting to gush over a player who has yet to play a minute of college basketball, but Robinson is the real deal. I do some work with the IBA (Indiana Basketball Academy) so I've had several opportunities to watch him play. There was not a better player in the state of Indiana last year, and I would go as far as saying there will not be a better player in the Big Ten. I might be going a little overboard, but it is ok to be very excited about this kid.

September 28th, 2012 at 9:46 AM

(Reply to #20) #24

Erik_in_Dayton's picture

Joined: 12/03/2008

MGoPoints: 34174

I hope you're right

I think it's better to be cautious about these things as far as setting one's own expectations, but obviously that's good to hear.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Inertia Policeman

Inertia Policeman's picture

Joined: 10/28/2011

MGoPoints: 795

I understand

I understand where he's coming from, losing 3-point shooters in Beilein's system hurts, as does losing the experience (and grit!) of Novak and Douglas. However, does he really think McGary is the biggest star on this team? He's probably somewhere between our third and sixth best player in my estimation.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Voltron Blue's picture

Joined: 01/16/2009

MGoPoints: 3013

I feel like...

...it's conceptually wrong to call a prediction "wrong" before the thing being predicted happens. Until it plays out, he could be absolutely right. That said, basing a prediction on recruiting rankings - particularly for a "role" player (granted, a very talented one, but make no mistake, this team will go as Trey and Jr go) - just doesn't feel right.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:17 PM

OysterMonkey's picture

Joined: 08/22/2009

MGoPoints: 5480

I don't know how his numbers

I don't know how his numbers are derived, but his rationale seems overly dependent on recruiting rankings in valuing returning players. Smot may have been M's highest rated returning player in terms of recruiting profile, but he certainly wasn't the team's best player.

At any rate, it's interesting to see the variance in pre-season expectations.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Joined: 11/17/2008

MGoPoints: 16433

Hey, we got the talent; how Beilein puts it all together

will be the challenge.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:38 PM

allintime23's picture

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 15060

There's nothing harder to

There's nothing harder to predict than NCAA basketball. However you position yourself at the end of the year is what really counts. I like our chances to finally make a tourney run.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:44 PM

(Reply to #13) #30

Elmer's picture

Joined: 04/22/2011

MGoPoints: 5141

True, it's hard to predict,

True, it's hard to predict, but not having a team with THJ, Morgan, Burke and the incoming freshman ranked in the top 25 is just plain dumb.

September 28th, 2012 at 11:41 AM

(Reply to #13) #31

Sopwith's picture

Joined: 06/29/2010

MGoPoints: 21283

Things Which Are Tougher To Predict Than NCAA Basketball

1. Lottery numbers

2. Weather more than 72 hours in advance

3. Pork belly futures

4. Content of Clint Eastwood speeches

5. Ingredients in McNuggets

6. End result of Denard play-action naked boot

7. Simultaneous position and momentum of electrons

8. American Airlines departure times

9. A woman's mood

10. _________ (you tell me)

October 1st, 2012 at 4:46 AM

(Reply to #44) #32

Toledo_Wolverine

Toledo_Wolverine's picture

Joined: 11/23/2011

MGoPoints: 148

No. 10

The age at which we are recruiting kids to Michigan by the year 2022. 7th grade? 6th?

October 1st, 2012 at 10:19 AM

(Reply to #44) #33

MGoSoftball's picture

Joined: 10/18/2010

MGoPoints: 7684

This one has always puzzled me,

Solving the Happy Ending problem for arbitrary $n$ . I know how to solve the Happy Ending problem, just not for arbitrary $n$ .

September 28th, 2012 at 2:09 AM

(Reply to #14) #34

Joined: 10/11/2010

MGoPoints: 2320

Hard to say

Smot was a turrible defender, but he was a great offensive asset. He could pull oposing bigs away from the paint, which opened up the offense for other guys. How many drives did TB get simply because the big was pulled away from the paint? I don't know the answer to that, but it was definately enough to get Smot 21 MPG. If you don't believe Smot was that good, then you're implying a belief that Belein was making a mistake playing him so much. Either way, it's a trouble-ridden argument. So, I think Smot had at least some positive impact. (for emphasis, he played almost as much as J-Mo.)

My question is honestly seeing how much MM will play. If he's a 5, he's one of 3 in the rotation (J-Mo & Horford being the others) and as such won't get much playing time. So he needs to learn to play the 4 in order to get some playing time. But this brings with it a host of other problems. First, I think Belein will use GRIII at the 4 some, if only to space the floor and out of habit of having a 4-guard system for so long. Second, MM is going to have to learn how to shoot a 15-foot shot, which he doesn't have in his arsenal right now. He HAS to stretch the defense at least a little bit, and I just don't see him doing that right now. So, his PT will be limited to around 20 MPG.

What that all leads to is an accumulation of information pointing to MM only playing as much as Smot. While he won't be the offensive boon that Smot was in terms of stretching the floor, I think he'll help enough to ofset the loss of Smot.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:50 PM

BK-bloo's picture

Joined: 01/07/2009

MGoPoints: 892

i'll take it...

and look forward to him being proved an idiot in march.

September 27th, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Joined: 07/26/2008

MGoPoints: 10263

I believe losing Smotrycz

I believe losing Smotrycz hurts, but I don't think it'll hurt too much this year. Next year is when it hurts IMO. I think upperclassmen are very valuable and Burke is probably going to leave, and one or more ofTHJ, GRIII and McGary (very unlikely though) too. Having Smot as an upperclassman next year would have been huge. Granted, we've got a couple other good guys coming in for 2013 (Walton, Irvin, Donnal), but his experience and expected improvement would have helped us quite a bit.

But the guy is kind of a fool. The debate on this team is not whether they're a top 25 team, but if they're a top 10-15 team. That is where we're dependant on our recruits living up to their rankings.

September 27th, 2012 at 4:44 PM

(Reply to #21) #37

State Street's picture

Joined: 07/09/2011

MGoPoints: 15302

As much as I like Smotrycz

As much as I like Smotrycz losing him will most likely be addition by subtraction. He had a terrible attitude (as evidenced by his benching), was a liability on defense, missed his share of open 3s, and really lacked speed and aggressiveness. We're replacing him with one of the best incoming freshman in the country (freshmen yes, but McGary is old for his age born in 1992).

Hard to complain with this.

September 27th, 2012 at 8:35 PM

(Reply to #29) #38

Joined: 07/26/2008

MGoPoints: 10263

Smot shot 43.5% from 3 last

Smot shot 43.5% from 3 last year.....hard to complain with that, it's pretty damn good especially considering the volume of 3 point shots he took. And you will never see me deny that he is limited. But he defended out of position his freshman and sophomore years because we lacked the depth down low. He had to play the 5 quite a bit because we needed him there. Not that he'd ever be a shutdown defender, but he could have developed into a serviceable defender at the 4. And if Burke and THJ leave after this year, we could be lacking in some scoring punch, which is where Smot would definitely help out. I'm not saying that Smot is a better player than some of the freshman we have coming in this year and next, but we could end up missing him next year because of his experience in the system and the conference as well as on the scoreboard. I definitely don't think that losing him is addition by subtraction. I think that's a silly statement. We do not gain anything by losing him. He probably wouldn't have started the next two years, but he could have been a great guy to have off the bench.

October 1st, 2012 at 10:20 AM

(Reply to #37) #39

snarling wolverine

snarling wolverine's picture

Joined: 12/14/2011

MGoPoints: 42991

Smot's stats were a little

Smot's stats were a little misleading though. He absolutely shot the lights out when playing out of conference, but then had a bad slump for much of the league schedule (but since he was benched, he didn't attempt as many 3's altogether).

September 27th, 2012 at 3:10 PM

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

MaizeAndBlueWahoo's picture

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 32946

I have a tough time working

I have a tough time working up much ANGAR over one guy I never heard of (out of like the whole rest of the basketball world) having a slightly lower opinion than everyone else.

September 27th, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Wolverine Devotee

Wolverine Devotee's picture

Joined: 06/29/2009

MGoPoints: 126203

Who gives a fuck what he

Who gives a fuck what he thinks? What matters are the actual polls. Hell, even those are useless in basketball. All they do is present a number. The NCAA seeds are the numbers that are important.

September 27th, 2012 at 4:33 PM

jsquigg's picture

Joined: 09/06/2009

MGoPoints: 6137

Hanners gonna hate....

Hanners gonna hate....

September 27th, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Blue boy johnson

Joined: 03/15/2009

MGoPoints: 6355

I'm not going to quibble over

I'm not going to quibble over M's pre-season rating.

Regardless of how good M is overall, first or thirty-first, what is beyond debate, is M's ability to match-up with MSU and Ohio State on a physical/talent level. Adding McGary and GRIII to the mix, to go along with Burke, Hardaway and Jordan Morgan, gives M as talented a starting 5 as there is in the BIG. Throw in some bangers off the bench, (Bielfeldt and Horford), and some three point shooting off the bench, (Vogrich, Stauskas, and Levert), and M is ready to compete at a high level.

September 27th, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Joined: 01/27/2009

MGoPoints: 590

Man, it's really too bad

Man, it's really too bad Mitch McGary won't be able to play as many minutes in the post now that his recruiting rankings have dropped.

September 27th, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Tater's picture

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30564

What?

Dan who? I don't think he's a top 25 basketball writer, either.

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