Michigan Basketball not a top 25 team? Huh?

48 posts / 0 new
Login or register to post comments
Last post
September 27th, 2012 at 1:55 PM
#1
robbyt003
robbyt003's picture
Joined: 10/25/2010
MGoPoints: 2593
Michigan Basketball not a top 25 team? Huh?

The Detroit Tigers are up 4-0 early and well we need something else to complain about then.  Apparently this Dan Hanner has never heard of Glenn Robinson III and he thought McGary was going to be our entire team next year.  It's a pretty good read, and it does bring up a good point that we did lose arguably our top three 3-point shooters from last year.  

LINK from umhoops.com

Dan Hanner, who writes for Real GM and has been featured in Basketball Prospectus, has noticed a trend in his 2012-13 computer projections. Hanner’s system has dropped Michigan significantly from his original spring projections. Michigan has dropped so far that Hanner doesn’t think the 2012-13 Wolverines are a top-25 team in the preseason. The reasoning: Mitch McGary’s fall in the recruiting rankings (3 to 26) and Evan Smotrycz’s transfer.

 

“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing” - Bo Schembechler

Top
Tags:

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
September 27th, 2012 at 2:07 PM | Wow. This guy must also think (Score:5 Normal)
NFG
NFG's picture
Joined: 04/24/2012
MGoPoints: 2165

Wow. This guy must also think that the South won the war and that Dr. Pepper 10 is for women too.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:37 PM | A lot of people down here (Score:4 Normal)
profitgoblue
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 19415

A lot of people down here think the South won.  Those same people still fly Dixie flags but that's neither here nor there.

 

Disgruntled former moderator.  I got a lot of problems with you people!

September 27th, 2012 at 4:37 PM | Huh? (Score:1 Normal)
saveferris
saveferris's picture
Joined: 07/02/2009
MGoPoints: 3102

A lot of people down here think the South won.

Robert E. Lee and the 13th-15th Amendments disagree with them.

 

"...what do you say, is it the new Bluesmobile or what?"

"Fix the cigarette lighter."

September 27th, 2012 at 5:42 PM | Thanks for clearing that up (Score:5 Normal)
WolvinLA2
WolvinLA2's picture
Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 17728

Thanks for clearing that up for us.  

September 27th, 2012 at 8:51 PM | war, you say? (Score:1)
superstringer
superstringer's picture
Joined: 02/04/2009
MGoPoints: 975

I believe those folks down there don't recognize the Civil War...they call it the War of Yankee Aggression.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:53 PM | ITS NOT FOR WOMEN (Score:5 Normal)
cclittle
cclittle's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 323

ITS NOT FOR WOMEN

For the record, I'm not a eugenicist.
September 27th, 2012 at 3:01 PM | Re: Civil War (Score:5 Insightful)
Ron Swanson
Joined: 07/17/2009
MGoPoints: 479

 I currently live in Atlanta, GA and Stone Mountain State Park has a laser lightshow that re-enacts the Civil War every weekend.  On the mountain, they bring a carving (similar to Mount Rushmore) of Robert E. Lee, Stonewall Jackson, and Jefferson Davis to life as they battle on.  This ends by Robert E. Lee breaking his sword, the shards of which unify to become the southern states while they blast "The South will Rise Again".  Everyone goes crazy.  Correction: everyone is crazy.

September 27th, 2012 at 3:08 PM | If I could moderate this post (Score:5 Normal)
NFG
NFG's picture
Joined: 04/24/2012
MGoPoints: 2165

If I could moderate this post as "wow, that is fucking sad." I would, instead +1 for insightful.

September 27th, 2012 at 3:48 PM | I had to log on specifically (Score:5 Normal)
Tommy Want Wingy
Tommy Want Wingy's picture
Joined: 01/23/2011
MGoPoints: 44

I had to log on specifically to respond to this. I too live in Atlanta, and the laser lightshow is amazing! I go a couple times a summer just to people watch. No better way to spend a hot summer afternoon than getting all liquored up and listening to them babble about the "War of Northern Aggression" to a soundtrack.

September 27th, 2012 at 5:27 PM | I had to log on just to +1 (Score:3 Normal)
jericho
jericho's picture
Joined: 07/04/2009
MGoPoints: 1283

I had to log on just to +1 your screen name and avatar.  I love that movie and I'm glad it's now on Netflix so I get to watch it way too many times.

"Shiny. Let's be bad guys."

September 27th, 2012 at 4:46 PM | Is this the show? (Score:3 Normal)
juager
Joined: 09/11/2011
MGoPoints: 10

Stone Mountain Park's Lasershow in "Mountainvision"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmJtLuWSbS4

Evidently, this was recorded in 2011. There appears to be a part referencing those "fine southern gentlemen" at 2 minutes /s

 

The end at 4 minutes and 50 seconds does show all of American and an American flag...

October 1st, 2012 at 10:14 AM | Embedded (Score:2)
snarling wolverine
Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 4706

I like that they played the ESPN college football theme at 1:20.

 

September 27th, 2012 at 5:34 PM | Wow, I can't believe they still do that! (Score:1)
stetgor
stetgor's picture
Joined: 03/27/2011
MGoPoints: 157

I spent a summer in Atlanta in the 80's and remember seeing that.  I also remember the golf course at Stone Mountain, which if I remember right, was pretty fun.  Thanks for the trip down memory lane!

Chicago Blue!

September 27th, 2012 at 3:48 PM | Sometimes I wish (Score:3 Normal)
Bryan
Bryan's picture
Joined: 07/10/2009
MGoPoints: 8093

That Sherman had burned more of the south...wait...I always think that

I have a Fandom Endurance III merit badge

September 28th, 2012 at 1:59 AM | Come on man (Score:3 Normal)
tasnyder01
Joined: 10/11/2010
MGoPoints: 762

That's like a Brit saying he wished Cornwalis had burned more of America.

Seriously, I know the south has a few red-necks, but we have red-necks in Cali too man. Jeez, if you're going to hate intolerant people, stop judging a whole region of a country by what you hear on radio/TV. It's oxymoronic.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:06 PM | Someone should introduce him (Score:4 Normal)
WolvinLA2
WolvinLA2's picture
Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 17728

Someone should introduce him to Stauskas. We'll be just fine behind the arc.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:10 PM | DP (Score:2 Flamebait)
Baldbill
Baldbill's picture
Joined: 04/09/2009
MGoPoints: 2008

Ooops Double post, sorry.

 

Semper Fidelis

September 27th, 2012 at 2:07 PM | I don't mind someone (Score:4 Normal)
Baldbill
Baldbill's picture
Joined: 04/09/2009
MGoPoints: 2008

I don't mind someone under-rating us, I think we have a very young team. One that has lots of talent, but it may need to prove itself. I think this is better than to be hyped up too high then have a fall if some of the breaks don't fall our way.

 

 

Semper Fidelis

September 27th, 2012 at 2:08 PM | In this instance (Score:5 Funny)
Gobgoblue
Joined: 07/07/2012
MGoPoints: 789

The man named "Dan Hanner" is not smart.  

I love Greg Mattison

September 27th, 2012 at 2:09 PM | He makes some good points, but... (Score:4 Normal)
Erik_in_Dayton
Erik_in_Dayton's picture
Joined: 12/03/2008
MGoPoints: 6784

The idea that the team was ever going to center around McGary is just wrong-headed.  I'm not ready to pencil Robinson in as an impact player, and I worry about the losses of Novak, Stu, and Smot, but this is going to be a Top 25 team.   This is a deep, talented bunch...I agree with Baldbill, though, that I don't mind this team being underrated.  I think anyone who is buying Final Four tickets is getting ahead of themselves.   

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra

                         

September 27th, 2012 at 2:47 PM | Based on what I've seen and hear (Score:5 Normal)
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 5674

I am already penciling GRIII as an instant impact player.  To me, he's the crown jewel of the class and JB wanted him long before he exploded into stardom.

 

What team in the country would you rank ahead of Michigan based on returning talent and incoming freshman class?  As of now, I can count 3-5 teams.  That is a top 5-10 team and has arguably the best PG in the country in Trey Burke. 

September 27th, 2012 at 3:00 PM | I understand not wanting to (Score:5 Normal)
MGoLogan
MGoLogan's picture
Joined: 03/07/2012
MGoPoints: 215

I understand not wanting to gush over a player who has yet to play a minute of college basketball, but Robinson is the real deal.  I do some work with the IBA (Indiana Basketball Academy) so I've had several opportunities to watch him play.  There was not a better player in the state of Indiana last year, and I would go as far as saying there will not be a better player in the Big Ten.  I might be going a little overboard, but it is ok to be very excited about this kid. 

September 28th, 2012 at 9:46 AM | I hope you're right (Score:3 Normal)
Erik_in_Dayton
Erik_in_Dayton's picture
Joined: 12/03/2008
MGoPoints: 6784

I think it's better to be cautious about these things as far as setting one's own expectations, but obviously that's good to hear. 

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra

                         

September 27th, 2012 at 2:09 PM | I understand (Score:4 Normal)
Inertia Policeman
Inertia Policeman's picture
Joined: 10/28/2011
MGoPoints: 95

I understand where he's coming from, losing 3-point shooters in Beilein's system hurts, as does losing the experience (and grit!) of Novak and Douglas. However, does he really think McGary is the biggest star on this team? He's probably somewhere between our third and sixth best player in my estimation. 

Big gulps huh? Alright! Well, see ya later.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:15 PM | I feel like... (Score:2)
Voltron Blue
Voltron Blue's picture
Joined: 01/16/2009
MGoPoints: 419

...it's conceptually wrong to call a prediction "wrong" before the thing being predicted happens.  Until it plays out, he could be absolutely right.  That said, basing a prediction on recruiting rankings - particularly for a "role" player (granted, a very talented one, but make no mistake, this team will go as Trey and Jr go) - just doesn't feel right.  

September 27th, 2012 at 2:17 PM | I don't know how his numbers (Score:2)
OysterMonkey
OysterMonkey's picture
Joined: 08/22/2009
MGoPoints: 2747

I don't know how his numbers are derived, but his rationale seems overly dependent on recruiting rankings in valuing returning players. Smot may have been M's highest rated returning player in terms of recruiting profile, but he certainly wasn't the team's best player.

At any rate, it's interesting to see the variance in pre-season expectations.

This has nothing to do with Michigan football.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:23 PM | Hey, we got the talent; how Beilein puts it all together (Score:-1 Overrated)
September 27th, 2012 at 2:38 PM | There's nothing harder to (Score:1 Normal)
allintime23
allintime23's picture
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2383

There's nothing harder to predict than NCAA basketball. However you position yourself at the end of the year is what really counts. I like our chances to finally make a tourney run.

All in for some manball.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:44 PM | True, it's hard to predict, (Score:4 Normal)
Elmer
Elmer's picture
Joined: 04/22/2011
MGoPoints: 2115

True, it's hard to predict, but not having a team with THJ, Morgan, Burke and the incoming freshman ranked in the top 25 is just plain dumb.

September 28th, 2012 at 11:41 AM | Things Which Are Tougher To Predict Than NCAA Basketball (Score:4 Normal)
Sopwith
Sopwith's picture
Joined: 06/29/2010
MGoPoints: 1625

1.  Lottery numbers

2.  Weather more than 72 hours in advance

3.  Pork belly futures

4.  Content of Clint Eastwood speeches

5.  Ingredients in McNuggets

6.  End result of Denard play-action naked boot

7.  Simultaneous position and momentum of electrons

8.  American Airlines departure times

9.  A woman's mood

10.  _________ (you tell me)

"You know, for a bartender/bookie, you're pretty judgmental."

October 1st, 2012 at 4:46 AM | No. 10 (Score:1)
Toledo_Wolverine
Toledo_Wolverine's picture
Joined: 11/23/2011
MGoPoints: 94

The age at which we are recruiting kids to Michigan by the year 2022. 7th grade? 6th?

Relax and think about brunette girls.

October 1st, 2012 at 10:19 AM | This one has always puzzled me, (Score:1)
MGoSoftball
MGoSoftball's picture
Joined: 10/18/2010
MGoPoints: 3602

Solving the Happy Ending problem for arbitrary n.  I know how to solve the Happy Ending problem, just not for arbitrary n.

From the Red Cedar Message Board:  "God hates us."  Yes He does Lil Bro, yes he does.  Everyone hates you.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:42 PM | Interesting Stats (Score:4 Normal)
michchi85
Joined: 09/04/2010
MGoPoints: 131

However he is the first person I've read that says that missing Smotrycz will have a negative impact on this team.  I think we are a much better team without him on the floor, especially with the new guys coming in.  Not trying to knock the kid, but he can't play the 4 in the Big Ten.  

Hanner's system relies too much on recruting numbers and not enough on common sense. He hardly mentiones Trey Burke and doesn't mention Glen Robinson III at all, who is Michigan's highest recruit.  He may be right that we are ranked too high, but not being a top 25 team is a complete joke.

September 28th, 2012 at 2:09 AM | Hard to say (Score:1)
tasnyder01
Joined: 10/11/2010
MGoPoints: 762

Smot was a turrible defender, but he was a great offensive asset. He could pull oposing bigs away from the paint, which opened up the offense for other guys. How many drives did TB get simply because the big was pulled away from the paint? I don't know the answer to that, but it was definately enough to get Smot 21 MPG.  If you don't believe Smot was that good, then you're implying a belief that Belein was making a mistake playing him so much. Either way, it's a trouble-ridden argument. So, I think Smot had at least some positive impact.  (for emphasis, he played almost as much as J-Mo.)

My question is honestly seeing how much MM will play. If he's a 5, he's one of 3 in the rotation (J-Mo & Horford being the others) and as such won't get much playing time. So he needs to learn to play the 4 in order to get some playing time. But this brings with it a host of other problems. First, I think Belein will use GRIII at the 4 some, if only to space the floor and out of habit of having a 4-guard system for so long. Second, MM is going to have to learn how to shoot a 15-foot shot, which he doesn't have in his arsenal right now. He HAS to stretch the defense at least a little bit, and I just don't see him doing that right now. So, his PT will be limited to around 20 MPG.

What that all leads to is an accumulation of information pointing to MM only playing as much as Smot. While he won't be the offensive boon that Smot was in terms of stretching the floor, I think he'll help enough to ofset the loss of Smot.

September 27th, 2012 at 2:50 PM | i'll take it... (Score:2 Normal)
BK-bloo
BK-bloo's picture
Joined: 01/07/2009
MGoPoints: 225

and look forward to him being proved an idiot in march.

September 27th, 2012 at 3:06 PM | I believe losing Smotrycz (Score:2)
bacon1431
bacon1431's picture
Joined: 07/26/2008
MGoPoints: 3291

I believe losing Smotrycz hurts, but I don't think it'll hurt too much this year. Next year is when it hurts IMO. I think upperclassmen are very valuable and Burke is probably going to leave, and one or more ofTHJ, GRIII and McGary (very unlikely though) too. Having Smot as an upperclassman next year would have been huge. Granted, we've got a couple other good guys coming in for 2013 (Walton, Irvin, Donnal), but his experience and expected improvement would have helped us quite a bit.

But the guy is kind of a fool. The debate on this team is not whether they're a top 25 team, but if they're a top 10-15 team. That is where we're dependant on our recruits living up to their rankings.

For a' that, an' a' that, 
Our toils obscure an' a' that, 
The rank is but the guinea's stamp, 
The man's the gowd for a' that. 
September 27th, 2012 at 4:44 PM | As much as I like Smotrycz (Score:3 Normal)
State Street
State Street's picture
Joined: 07/09/2011
MGoPoints: 1117

As much as I like Smotrycz losing him will most likely be addition by subtraction.  He had a terrible attitude (as evidenced by his benching), was a liability on defense, missed his share of open 3s, and really lacked speed and aggressiveness.  We're replacing him with one of the best incoming freshman in the country (freshmen yes, but McGary is old for his age born in 1992).

Hard to complain with this.

September 27th, 2012 at 8:35 PM | Smot shot 43.5% from 3 last (Score:2 Normal)
bacon1431
bacon1431's picture
Joined: 07/26/2008
MGoPoints: 3291

Smot shot 43.5% from 3 last year.....hard to complain with that, it's pretty damn good especially considering the volume of 3 point shots he took. And you will never see me deny that he is limited. But he defended out of position his freshman and sophomore years because we lacked the depth down low. He had to play the 5 quite a bit because we needed him there. Not that he'd ever be a shutdown defender, but he could have developed into a serviceable defender at the 4. And if Burke and THJ leave after this year, we could be lacking in some scoring punch, which is where Smot would definitely help out. I'm not saying that Smot is a better player than some of the freshman we have coming in this year and next, but we could end up missing him next year because of his experience in the system and the conference as well as on the scoreboard. I definitely don't think that losing him is addition by subtraction. I think that's a silly statement. We do not gain anything by losing him. He probably wouldn't have started the next two years, but he could have been a great guy to have off the bench.

For a' that, an' a' that, 
Our toils obscure an' a' that, 
The rank is but the guinea's stamp, 
The man's the gowd for a' that. 
October 1st, 2012 at 10:20 AM | Smot's stats were a little (Score:2)
snarling wolverine
Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 4706

Smot's stats were a little misleading though.  He absolutely shot the lights out when playing out of conference, but then had a bad slump for much of the league schedule (but since he was benched, he didn't attempt as many 3's altogether).  

September 27th, 2012 at 3:10 PM | I have a tough time working (Score:5 Normal)
MaizeAndBlueWahoo
MaizeAndBlueWahoo's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 11830

I have a tough time working up much ANGAR over one guy I never heard of (out of like the whole rest of the basketball world) having a slightly lower opinion than everyone else.

"We've beaten Michigan the last four years.  So where's the threat?"

- Mark Dantonio

Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<

September 27th, 2012 at 3:11 PM | Who gives a fuck what he (Score:0 Trolling)
September 27th, 2012 at 4:33 PM | Hanners gonna hate.... (Score:1)
jsquigg
jsquigg's picture
Joined: 09/06/2009
MGoPoints: 1116

Hanners gonna hate....

Hail to the Victors!

September 27th, 2012 at 4:50 PM | I'm not going to quibble over (Score:2)
gordie bell
gordie bell's picture
Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 7977

I'm not going to quibble over M's pre-season rating.

Regardless of how good M is overall, first or thirty-first, what is beyond debate, is M's ability to match-up with MSU and Ohio State on a physical/talent level. Adding McGary and GRIII to the mix, to go along with Burke, Hardaway and Jordan Morgan, gives M as talented a starting 5 as there is in the BIG. Throw in some bangers off the bench, (Bielfeldt and Horford), and some three point shooting off the bench, (Vogrich, Stauskas, and Levert), and M is ready to compete at a high level.

September 27th, 2012 at 5:10 PM | Man, it's really too bad (Score:5 Funny)
grsbmd
Joined: 01/27/2009
MGoPoints: 464

Man, it's really too bad Mitch McGary won't be able to play as many minutes in the post now that his recruiting rankings have dropped.

September 27th, 2012 at 9:00 PM | What? (Score:4 Normal)
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 10386

Dan who?  I don't think he's a top 25 basketball writer, either.

 

 

 

Theme provided by Roopletheme; sidebars adapted from Chris Murphy.