Michigan Basketball - Early Discussion

This whole discussion is based on what Mitch does.

Morris was certainly a talent, but I think Burke/Brundidge come up big and make the loss of DM minimal.  The Wolverines haven't had 2 guards this highly regarded come in for a long time, and we all know freshman can make a huge impact in the Big 10.

Morgan continues to grow, Smotczyrimovich becomes a deadeye from outside, and THJR is all Big 10.    The team spends the better part of the season in the top 25, gets a decent seed in March.   We don't win the regular season Big 10 but make it to the finals in the Big 10 Tourney.   Sweet 16 in March, and more big recruits.

Most importantly, we are better than Sparty.

by most accounts Smotz is having a breakout summer and is supposed to be much improved.  Aside from him, I would think Burke or Brundidge will be "surprises" simply for the amount of PT they get.

I think the team will be good, but Morris' departure will hurt.  It's going to be up to Burke/Brundidge to determine how far this team can go.  I expect some stumbles along the way, and the turnover to assist ratio might not be as good as last year.  Morris was really good at distributing the ball (and creating).

I don't think they will use the pick and roll as much as last year (just my feeling) because Morris was abnormally good at it and his height gave him an advantage.  I think we'll probably go back to the types of offense we ran 2 and 3 years ago with CJ Lee and Merritt at the point.  More screens and passing, but less pick and roll.

I haven't looked aroung the B1G yet to see where we stack up, but I know the conference as a whole lost a LOT of great players.  We only lost our PG, but he was a good one. 

development of Jordan Morgan will be key to Michigan's success this year.  A lot of our office was Morris leaners with 5 on the shot clock last year, and that was because there was really not much happening inside.  Morgan can dunk with the best of them, but he needs to become a polished inside scorer with his back to the basket. 

I think we'll beat Wayne State in the exhibition opener.

I think we split with MSU.

-Season Predictions? 7 losses

-Most Improved/Breakout player? smotz

-Point guard situation? not as big of a dropoff as we initially feared

-Big Ten favorites? not likely, though i think we make noise in the B1G tourney

Can Burke or some combination of players replace Morris?  That seems unlikely, but maybe overall team improvement will make up for it. 

My one prediction is that the team will improve a lot as the season goes on.  I think that they'll struggle early w/out Morris. 

Oh and OSU will rape the B1G this year with Sullinger, take 2.

I'm guessing:

1 - Burke or Brundidge
2 - Novak/Douglass
3 - THJ
4 - Smotrycz
5 - Morgan/McLimans

At first I was thinking Novak at the 2 and Douglass at the 3, since I would imagine Beilein would want the presence of both seniors in the starting lineup, but if he wants to go with his best 5, it seems like Smotrycz has to be in there.

There are two important factors here:

1.  Is Trey Burke "for real?"

2.  Can Jon Horford turn into a bona fide elite big man?

If the answers to those questions are "yes," Michigan will create a form of "midnight madness" for its fans on a regular basis this season.  

I ran into one of the players at a bar in Chicago the night before the Northwestern game and he told me Stu would be the starting point guard

I'll be interested to see how the offense looks without one person dominating the ball so much. Morris is a great player and I'd love to have him back, but there were times when the offense felt stagnant last year because Morris was always in control of where the offense was heading. I expect a lot more ball movement this year, so backdoor cuts and skip passes will be key.

Also, I expect to see Stu taking over a big part of the PG duties early, and the freshman taking over more as they learn the system. Definitely a great time to be a Michigan basketball fan!

The key issue in my mind is who gets into the lane and creates havoc? Burke and Brundidge are the only two players whose game is suited to drive and dish. It will be interesting to see if Hardaway has added dribble penetration to his game, (I doubt that he has), his ball handling had a long way to go when the season ended. Stu is capable of getting in the lane, but isn't comfortable doing it at last check. Smot is the only big capable of getting past his defender and into the lane (thanks to his killer pump fake), but I don't know how good a passer he is.\

When Smot plays the 5, M will have 5 capable 3 point shooters on the floor at the same time. This will give Burke and Brundidge ample room to get into the lane and do damage. The freshman guards have walked into an ideal situation and I expect both will be effective on the offensive end starting early in the season. Shot selection will be a key, but I think Belien will be able to get the kids to understand what he wants and how he wants to go about it.

Burke, I think, will be a good player from day one. 

If teams have to respect Brundidge's shot, he will be effective right away as well. Brundidge is very strong and wide. This combined with his good handle, surprising quickness, excellent balance  and swag, will make Brundidge tough to handle for almost any college guard.

I don't expect Burke and Brundidge be on the floor at the same time very often, espeically to start the season. I am hopeful that both play well enough for Belien to want one of them on the floor for the majority of the game. Despit being true freshman, these two have played so much basketball against good competition the last 4 years and are pretty much a known commodity. M bball fans are going to be pleased with these two the next 4 years.

I have not been frequenting umhoops/rivals free board much...Anyone heard any early returns on Burke/Brundidge?  Sam Webb heard anything you're willing to share?  Beilein said they can both shoot(which is nice) and Burke's highlights are real impressive from a scoring perspective...But I haven't seen a lot of distribution.  Anyone seen or heard anything?

On ball screens/2 man game: THJ and Morgan had some nice plays last year, and you have to think THJ's ability to hit from anywhere on the court makes this combo at least as dangerous, as long as we can get the ball up the court.

will be how quickly Burke picks up the offense and defense, and whether he shows maturity beyond his years when making split-second decisions.  My bet is that Stu is starting at point guard at the beginning of the season but that the plan is to work in Burke over time.  If we see Burke starting at PG before Big Ten play, I think that's a good sign.

Since our offense is generally based on getting the ball to shooters who can't create their own shot, that increases the importance of the point guard position. Losing Morris was HUGE.

Since we have magnificent coaches, I also expect to see gradual improvement at every other position. 

I'm riding heavily on the Jordan Morgan train.  I think the kid has done a great job in the offseasons, working on his strength and conditioning.  I think he can be an intimidating factor that will help everyone do their jobs more effectively.

Also hoping Smotrycz, Douglas, and Novak have gotten stronger and worked endlessly on their shots.

Finally, I'd love to see THJ become a bona fide star.

Is that asking for too much? 

Stu is a dangerous shooter but I worry about him at the point. He's really not a playmaker.

I think we start out like this (hypothetical ideal minutes in parentheses ignoring obvious Morgan foul trouble disclaimer, freshmen WTF? disclaimer, and MOAR Novak plz disclaimer):

PG - Stu, some minutes at the 2 (25)
2 - Novak (25)
3 - Hardaway (30)
4 - Smotrycz, some minutes at 5 (30)
5 - Morgan (30)

Burke - top sub at PG (20)
Brundidge - top sub at 2/3 (10)
Vogrich - depth sub at 2/3 (10)
Horford - top sub at 4/5 (20)

And end up like this:

PG - Burke (25)
2 - Novak (25)
3 - Hardaway (30)
4 - Smotrycz, some minutes at 5 (25)
5 - Morgan (30)

Stu - top sub at 1 / some minutes at 2 (20)
Brudidge - top sub at 2/3 (20)
Horford - top sub at 4/5 (25)

Not a radical change, but I think the freshmen will figure it out and become key contributors. As far as the kid from Illinois Bielfeldt (sp?), I don't know how he's fit in and if he can challenge for some minutes at the 4, so I'm assuming he gets garbage minutes at best.

I think THJ will be in the top 3 for Big Ten POY and we will make the sweet 16 at least.

Regarding starting line up.  I would anticiapte seeing your starting 5 for the whole year (barring injury) being: Stu, THJ, Novak, Smotz, Morgan.  I bet Beilein trusts his two upper classman during crunch time until a frosh can prove themselves.

As the season wears on, if Burke is up to the billing, I would expect him to earn 10+ min at the point.  I would also expect Horford, Christian, and potentially Bielfelfd (sp?) to split back up minutes in the post. 

Also, expect Morgan to be a better player with lesser numbers.  Morgan was the biggest benefactor of Morris.  He will be hurt the most, that said, I bet his over all game (defense and rebounding) will be better and really make a difference.

Overall prediction, expect a very team oriented game with THJ or Smotz stepping up when we need 1-on-1 play.  This will seem ugly and be a little lower scoring (especially early against tougher OOC opponents).  Thanks to some big losses at Purdue, Wisconsin, and MSU, conference will really come down to OSU, Illinois, and maybe Indiana. I think Michigan will match up well with most of the B1G, but could struggle against really athletic teams.  Against these teams, they will really have to rely on execution and communication.  Don't be too conerenced about this, as a game like Tennessee last year is a great example of execution beating athleticism.