Michigan Basketball is down but will return.
We have a legitimate attrition issue at Michigan. Our kids tend to leave a year earlier than they should and we have transfers that inspire curiosity. Beilein does a very good job at doing more with less but at some point we have to stop the bleeding. We became a great program again by having a few "Program Guys" like Stu, Zak and Jordan. We complimented it with a few nice recruiting classes despite those classes being littered with 3 stars with minimal offer sheets. Our staff coached those kids into All-Americans and we won 2 B1G titiles and finished 2nd in the NCAA tourney.
The recruiting misses over the past couple of years are starting to simply catch up. Beilein has to close on recruits better. The Devin Booker and James Blackmon misses were simply catastrophic. You cannot afford to lose elite guard play if you're not getting it in the form of recruits. It baffles me why Michigan has such a hard time closing on some of these top level recruits. Given the recent track record of Michigan's annual sacrifice to the NBA Gods...you would think we'd have to beat the recruits off with a stick...but that is clearly not the case. We will likely settle this year with a D3 transfer, albeit a promising one. That's not going to cut it and everyone reading this likely knows it as well.
The recruits that we did land last year were of the rushed variety save for Doyle and Chatman. Doyle has been quality for a freshman big but has tapered off rapidly since December. Chatman has been a sizeable disaapointment. He looks a step slow and lost at times. Hopefully his sophomore year will show vast improvement because he still shows flashes here and there. We needed DJ Wilson this year plain and simple. We do not have any athleticism in our big man ranks. I think Dawkins and MAAR project well in the future from an athletic and defensive standpoint and they have turned out surprisingley well on offense. We still needed more star-power and we didn't land it.
Injuries have trashed our season. Not only are Levert and Walton our best players....they're our defensive engines. We cannot play man defense without them. Our on ball defense suffers greatly with them out. Spike is simply a defensive liability. The freshman are coming along nicely but still not ready to lock down opponents. The Wilson injury was brutal and forced us to give extended minutes to Donnal who is simply not ready for significant and consistent contribution.
The ELEPHANT in the room is the Caris Levert decision. It's very simple honestly.....if he goes we will be decent to good next year. Likely 20+ wins. The problem is that Irvin and Walton will shoulder a ton of scoring. This will put at least Irvin in line to make the NBA jump after next year. Our next deep run will come with an upper-classmen laiden squad. Levert leaving will put a serious damper in that. His foot will be healed up around Pre-Draft workouts and his decision will be interesting to say the least. If Levert came back....Michigan would be good to elite. Huge jump, I know...but Caris is a Wooden Award guy next year as a Senior. He's a shoe in for B1G POY candidacy and a top 10 draft pick in 2016 if healthy. Just take a peek at our potential lineup with Levert in Maize and BLue next year......
Walton (jr) - SPike (sr)
Irvin(jr) - MAAR (so)
Levert (sr) - Dawkins (so) / Robinson (Rso)
Chatman (so) - Wilson (So)
Doyle (So)- Donnal (Rso)
In order for us to get back to where we were, someone is going to have to make a "Program" decision. I won't rib our guys for going and getting paid but I sensed a little bit of pain and heavy thought on GR3's face tonight. I personally think he should have stayed. He would've been featured and flourished into a likely 1st round pick. I don't want Caris to make a similar mistake. Caris needs to clean up a few aspects of his game in my opinion and put on 15 more pounds to be an asset at the next level. He can obviously get drafted this year but will he be effective? Nik has learned that a top 10 selection means nothing as far as effectiveness and play time. He was paid a handsome ransome and wound up on a guard heavy team so you can argue fairness to his situation. Mitch has looked like an absolute beast as of late and he wouldv'e easily trashed the NCAA if he was still enrolled at Michigan. Caris will have our fate in his hands with his decision and he should absolutely make the decision for his best interest. It would just be nice to see a kid with his ability stay and lead us as a Senior.
In regards to tonight's ass whipping.....we gave up 62% shooting. We were out-rebounded by 8 and out-blocked 3 to 1. We lost the assist battle by 7. We were beat in every phase of the game and going zone all day against a team that is streaky-good like MSU, renders you liable to watch them have a great night shooting the basketball. We looked dissinterested for stretches of the 1st half and looked far inferior athletically. That frickin' hurts because we have been explosive and athletic the last couple of years and watching MSU swing off of our rims all night is simply not acceptable. Our team is beat up and disadvantaged but we've got to stop feeling sorry for ourselves. Guys like Spike and Irvin need to play a lot better. THis is their opportunity to lead and take this program over in Levert and Walton's absence. We need more from them. Irvin and Spike continue to disspoint defensively and that is unnacceptable from veteran guys. Bielein has a huge task on his hands to get this team to finish with some pride this season. It's going to have to start from the top though. MAAR shouldn't have to be the spark. The fresman should be playing up to match the veteran guys, not the other way around. The disparity athleticlaly was very evident tonight. I think we need to really make a focus of getting more athletic in these next few recruiting classes.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:36 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
and he can coach. that is why he was successful with self's players; further than self ever would have. his downfall is that he has integrity and won't play the calipari game. one D Rose is a prime example.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:36 AM ^
So, I think we keep Zak all four and he graduates as an accomplished Big Ten player with a shot at being drafted. I'm no scout but I see way he leaves after next year. He hasn't garnered an ounce of buzz this season and guys typically don't blow up overnight. Even Stauskas and LeVert's stock bubbled before it blew up.
February 18th, 2015 at 9:39 AM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 8:38 AM ^
The lack of production/development from the frontcourt players on this team (Doyle, Donnal, Wilson, and Chatman) is what is holding them back, in my opinion. I do think Michigan will be much improved next year, but until they can find a defensive anchor in the paint (Jordan Morgan) their potential is going to be limited. If Doyle and Wilson can develop over the summer as I think they will, Michigan might actually have a formidible front line next year. A colleague and I were talking last week during the Illinois game and I made the comment that if Caris LeVert comes back next year I think Zak Irvin will become the 6th man, which I think suits his skillset perfectly. I believe Duncan Robinson will surprise many and is going to start at either the 3 or 4 (depending on Wilson's development). I still see Wilson as having the highest ceiling on the team and truly believe his progress will determine whether Michigan has a good or great team next year. If he can develop his handle and jumpshot, next year's lineup will be the biggest of the Beilein era, with only 1 starter below 6'7", assuming LeVert returns (1 starter below 6'6" if he does not return).
February 18th, 2015 at 9:10 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 9:16 AM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 9:27 AM ^
I think Donnal will be able to keep a spot in the rotation, if for no reason other than he is 6'9" and can shoot. He has to improve his strength and athleticism but as long as he doesn't transfer, I think he will keep a spot in the rotation. Chatman is a bit more complex. I guess I am so used to following high school basketball in the Indianapolis area, where the level of competition is so high, that I didn't have a feel for just how bad the competition Chatman faced in high school was. I still think he is talented but he is playing with no confidence whatsoever and his lack of athleticism and outside shooting ability has been too much to overcome. I hate to speculate on guys transferring but if Wilson improves over the summer as I think he will, minutes are going to be very hard to come by for Chatman.
February 18th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^
we really haven't seen him play yet. in 24 min this year (bad competition tho) he had 6 reb and 3 blocks. if he can be a good rebounder and shot blocker for 15-20 per game to spell doyle, it will be huge.
i actually have higher hopes for donnal than chatman. but we need one of them to make a leap. i think donnal has the ability to be a solid 3 pt shooter which would make him ideal for the 4. he was thrust into the 5 this year though, given our lack of depth there.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 9:00 AM ^
It sucks that our freshmen and walk-ons struggle against the juniors and seniors of other teams, but it's not all that surprising. Add to that, the few upper classmen really are best suited as role players, and it's a recipe for a mediocre team.
February 18th, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
Next years potential lineup.
Walton PG
Robinson SG
Levert SG
Irvin SG
Doyle C
Dawkins will be hard to keep off the court, but so will MAAR. Spikes minutes will be down next year for sure. Too much talent on next years roster and he's such a defensive liability.
It'll be interesting to see guys like Chapman( I think he gets much better next year) , MAAR, and Dawkins in year two. We have a good problem to have at the 2/3/4 position. Hopefully Donnal can get a lot bigger.
February 18th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^
or what?
February 18th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
Michigan basketball will be back, but at what level? In Beilein's eight seasons, we have three first weekend exits from the tourney with decent teams, one Final Four, and one Elite Eight. Including this year, we also have had three teams that didn't even make the NCAA tourney. This year, we might not even make the NIT. The talent on the team right now is more reflective of the teams that either didn't make the post season or squeezed into the tourney as a 10 seed than the teams that made deep tourney runs. Next year isn't going to change that. The poor recruiting of 2014-2015 is going to cost us again.
Beilein's retention and recruiting of players is a big problem, and it will probably continue to be a problem. He's not just losing guys to the lottery. He is losing guys to other programs and he is losing guys who make mistakes by leaving. In the meantime, outside of 2012 and 2013, he has been a poor recruiter who relies on overachievement from program guys and finding diamonds in the rough. His luck finally ran out in that department as we are seeing some reversion to the mean with guys like Irvin and Chatman.
It's a down year, and it's one that really hurts since it looks like the program had turned the corner. Even if Caris comes back, I don't see a Final Four or a Big Ten championship in the near future.
February 18th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
as bad as this season looks, you do realize that if either levert or walton is healthy all year, we would likely be sitting at 10-5 in the BIG right now and sparty would be 8-7. and there is a chance everyone returns next year.
February 18th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^
Don't use that type of logic. It makes too much sense.
With Levert and Walton, we were never losing in Ann Arbor.
Given that we went to OT without either at their place, its pretty realistic that we get the sweep.
Levert is a nightmare for MSU to defend and they struggled doing it, namely the 2014 game in Ann Arbor.
February 18th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^
With Levert and Walton we lost at home to NJIT and Eastern Michigan and we lost at home by 11 to SMU right after getting completely run out of the building by Arizona. The same thing happened at OSU where they combined for 58 minutes. You'll have to forgive me for not looking at that bunch and seeing anything better than a mediocre NCAA 8 seed next year.
February 18th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^
Wow. Very long post dude. I think we can summarize as follows:
1. Beilein needs to recruit better at the post position. We are out matched physically in the front court and it has caught up to us against bigger teams nationally and in the B1G. We need front court depth.
2. We need to start winning some of these recruiting wars for the national prospects. We cannot rely constantly on the "under the radar guys" as our primary players if we are to win B1G titles. Lagford, Battle & Winston will be the next recruiting test cases.
3. If this team comes back intact and fully healthy for next season we will compete at a very high level. I suspect we will make noise in the B1G and possibly even nationally.
4.Beilein is a hell of a coach. Perhaps the best coach in the land.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^
Team was lead by "2 and done" guys the past two seasons. They don't have that type of talent right now, maybe Caris, but injured. Also, they don't have the deadly 3 point shooting of past two years. They have good guys and depth but guys that need 2-3 years to develop.
February 18th, 2015 at 5:32 PM ^
To some people surmise this fact...M has been reformed into a 2 and done school. However,this year things haven't gone well for blue with injuries and 6 frosh added to which at times have produce odd combinations.
Reading comments about Kentucky reminds me of a conversation I had with someone about that game. I recall saying to them...losing to Kentucky,the nation most talented team,by a basket in the E8 showed ME where this program is and its substainability.
Not the least bit worried about the future of this team...we're in good hands!!
February 18th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
we will be back next year as this team grows together.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
tl; dr
February 18th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
what are you smoking? Hes big the biggest dissapointment of all..There is no way hes going to jump early...what are you basing thius on?
February 18th, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^
Caris or not, Michigan will be loaded next season. The younger player's will learn to be able to play at a higher level next season. Coach Belein and staff will develope. The team will be stronger physically and mentally. Their not exactly getting crushed by anyone save a couple of game's. If the focus is there a very good team will be Michigan basketball.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:35 PM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 9:29 PM ^
Why do people insist that this team will either be great or horrible next year? The truth is that this is one of the youngest teams in college basketball, it has a decent amount of talent, a great coach, and returns just about everything except potentially LeVert and Biefeldt.
The computers put us at about #81 right now. That's not too bad, all things considered. But to make a jump into the top 20 next year probably isn't a realistic expectation. It's also not realistic to expect this team to remain in the ~80 range with so much youth.
If LeVert comes back we're probably looking at the 25-40 range, and if not then we're probably looking at the 35-50 range. Could be better. Could be worse. All the people expecting us to suddenly be Final Four contenders are probably going to be disappointed. I won't say anything about the people who think we'll miss the NCAAT again.