Michigan Basketball is down but will return.
We have a legitimate attrition issue at Michigan. Our kids tend to leave a year earlier than they should and we have transfers that inspire curiosity. Beilein does a very good job at doing more with less but at some point we have to stop the bleeding. We became a great program again by having a few "Program Guys" like Stu, Zak and Jordan. We complimented it with a few nice recruiting classes despite those classes being littered with 3 stars with minimal offer sheets. Our staff coached those kids into All-Americans and we won 2 B1G titiles and finished 2nd in the NCAA tourney.
The recruiting misses over the past couple of years are starting to simply catch up. Beilein has to close on recruits better. The Devin Booker and James Blackmon misses were simply catastrophic. You cannot afford to lose elite guard play if you're not getting it in the form of recruits. It baffles me why Michigan has such a hard time closing on some of these top level recruits. Given the recent track record of Michigan's annual sacrifice to the NBA Gods...you would think we'd have to beat the recruits off with a stick...but that is clearly not the case. We will likely settle this year with a D3 transfer, albeit a promising one. That's not going to cut it and everyone reading this likely knows it as well.
The recruits that we did land last year were of the rushed variety save for Doyle and Chatman. Doyle has been quality for a freshman big but has tapered off rapidly since December. Chatman has been a sizeable disaapointment. He looks a step slow and lost at times. Hopefully his sophomore year will show vast improvement because he still shows flashes here and there. We needed DJ Wilson this year plain and simple. We do not have any athleticism in our big man ranks. I think Dawkins and MAAR project well in the future from an athletic and defensive standpoint and they have turned out surprisingley well on offense. We still needed more star-power and we didn't land it.
Injuries have trashed our season. Not only are Levert and Walton our best players....they're our defensive engines. We cannot play man defense without them. Our on ball defense suffers greatly with them out. Spike is simply a defensive liability. The freshman are coming along nicely but still not ready to lock down opponents. The Wilson injury was brutal and forced us to give extended minutes to Donnal who is simply not ready for significant and consistent contribution.
The ELEPHANT in the room is the Caris Levert decision. It's very simple honestly.....if he goes we will be decent to good next year. Likely 20+ wins. The problem is that Irvin and Walton will shoulder a ton of scoring. This will put at least Irvin in line to make the NBA jump after next year. Our next deep run will come with an upper-classmen laiden squad. Levert leaving will put a serious damper in that. His foot will be healed up around Pre-Draft workouts and his decision will be interesting to say the least. If Levert came back....Michigan would be good to elite. Huge jump, I know...but Caris is a Wooden Award guy next year as a Senior. He's a shoe in for B1G POY candidacy and a top 10 draft pick in 2016 if healthy. Just take a peek at our potential lineup with Levert in Maize and BLue next year......
Walton (jr) - SPike (sr)
Irvin(jr) - MAAR (so)
Levert (sr) - Dawkins (so) / Robinson (Rso)
Chatman (so) - Wilson (So)
Doyle (So)- Donnal (Rso)
In order for us to get back to where we were, someone is going to have to make a "Program" decision. I won't rib our guys for going and getting paid but I sensed a little bit of pain and heavy thought on GR3's face tonight. I personally think he should have stayed. He would've been featured and flourished into a likely 1st round pick. I don't want Caris to make a similar mistake. Caris needs to clean up a few aspects of his game in my opinion and put on 15 more pounds to be an asset at the next level. He can obviously get drafted this year but will he be effective? Nik has learned that a top 10 selection means nothing as far as effectiveness and play time. He was paid a handsome ransome and wound up on a guard heavy team so you can argue fairness to his situation. Mitch has looked like an absolute beast as of late and he wouldv'e easily trashed the NCAA if he was still enrolled at Michigan. Caris will have our fate in his hands with his decision and he should absolutely make the decision for his best interest. It would just be nice to see a kid with his ability stay and lead us as a Senior.
In regards to tonight's ass whipping.....we gave up 62% shooting. We were out-rebounded by 8 and out-blocked 3 to 1. We lost the assist battle by 7. We were beat in every phase of the game and going zone all day against a team that is streaky-good like MSU, renders you liable to watch them have a great night shooting the basketball. We looked dissinterested for stretches of the 1st half and looked far inferior athletically. That frickin' hurts because we have been explosive and athletic the last couple of years and watching MSU swing off of our rims all night is simply not acceptable. Our team is beat up and disadvantaged but we've got to stop feeling sorry for ourselves. Guys like Spike and Irvin need to play a lot better. THis is their opportunity to lead and take this program over in Levert and Walton's absence. We need more from them. Irvin and Spike continue to disspoint defensively and that is unnacceptable from veteran guys. Bielein has a huge task on his hands to get this team to finish with some pride this season. It's going to have to start from the top though. MAAR shouldn't have to be the spark. The fresman should be playing up to match the veteran guys, not the other way around. The disparity athleticlaly was very evident tonight. I think we need to really make a focus of getting more athletic in these next few recruiting classes.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:05 AM ^
The window is closing fast? The window for what? And why is he fighting an uphill battle?
February 18th, 2015 at 2:01 AM ^
Look I'm just as much of a U-M homer as the next guy, but let's face it: Levert is not coming back, and next year's team does not project to make a deep run in the tournament. Let's compare 2013 to 2016
So. Burke >>> Jr. Walton
Fr. Stauskus = So. MAAR
Jr. THJ > Jr. Irvin
Fr. GRIII = So. Dawkins
Fr. McGary > So. Wilson, Doyle, w/e
In spite of how good they were, the 2013 needed a miracle to get out of the Sweet 16 and then still came up short. I do not expect the 2016 team to be in the running for the Final Four.
Beilein is fighting an uphill battle because his stars keep leaving after just two years in the system.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:16 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 2:43 AM ^
Fr. Stauskas did nothing like fr. MAAR has done. There was never a game where he was taking over our scoring (the Florida game was him knocking down wide open threes from Burke and Mcgary). Secondly, you're missing the fact Dawkins is coming off the bench for Robinson next year and that Irvin is basically THJ if THJ had been the best player on the team, which he never was.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:56 PM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 3:06 AM ^
You realize a lot of good fortune is needed in the NCAA tournament, don't you?
Especially in 2013, when we were playing a whos who of college basketball.
VCU -hot, up and coming team two years off a Final Four run
Kansas-blueblood, top recruits all over their roster
Florida -a contender almost every single season, top recruits galore
Syracuse - a contender almost every single season, top recruits galore.
Then Louisville, who we might have beat had a few questionable/blown calls went our way.
February 18th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
will compete for the BIG title next and year and will be even better the year after that. now, how deep they go in the tourny depends on if a player or two blows up. irvin and/or walton are the likely candidates to become "go to" guys.
and if JB lands a stud or two in the this coming class or 2016, the depth and talent on this team will be outstanding. UM is at the top of the list for several top recruits, we definitely need a couple of them.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
but lose early inthe tournament, much like the 2011-12 team.
If they retain Walton and pick up a McGary-like big-man (or perhaps even any 6'10'' or taller ESPN100 guy) they could go farther the next year. I believe the former will happen but the latter is unlikely.
They simply are not going to the NCG with one athletic big man standing at 6'8''. No way no how.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:42 AM ^
Boeheim is 70.
If Beilein coaches to 2020 He's the longest tenured coach in Michigan history. What exactly do you want from him to "build a program"? Michigan is without two of their best 3 players, in a down year that saw 3 players leave, two who shouldn't have left, and still competing against the top. If anthing, this season is a testament to the program he's built.
February 18th, 2015 at 3:41 PM ^
and these are the most talented teams he has ever had by far.
Man, some of the stuff that gets posted on UM boards.
Boom, roasted, come on.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:14 AM ^
Caris LeVert and Walton Jr are our UM's 2 leading defensive rebounders. They have not played for 7 and 6 games respectively. That tells you all you need to knwo about the front line athleticsm. It's been an issue for years outside of Mitch. GR3 played out of position so our 4 has been lacking in size for years, and we had a multitude of NBA wings/guards to hide it. The 2012 class in retrospect will go down as one of the best in our history - perhaps only trailing the Fab 5 in the past 25 years. That hid a lot of our front court issues. We go into each game against "good teams" just saying "we need to shoot the lights out" because we cant rely on rebounding and defense.
Unless Beilein bring in a Udoh type every other class to help clear up the lane and alter shots and get some rebounds you just live and die with the philosophy that if you develop enough NBA type outside shooters at the wings and PG you just outscore everyone and live by offense. That's not changing anytime soon based on what we have on the team and the pipeline of recruits (which right now is Duncan Robinson). Even in the best of times Beilein basically sends 1 guy to the offensive glass and tells everyone else to go back. That's one thing. But getting plastered like this on our own glass is sickening. And its not just a tonight issue and its not injuries - those are our bigs.
And Chatman being a bust (that is what he is today - no other way to call it - yes it can change in the future) on a team that needed a star freshman like Indiana, Maryand and OSU have - was another nail in this year's season. And in our lack of rebounding - he actually is a decent rebounder but is so lost defensively and offensively you cant keep him on the court apparently. Dakich - friggin Dakich - got extended minutes over Chatman today. Could have pushed Irvin down to the 2 and then Chatman to 3 if Beilein had any trust in him. Instead he was a pinata tonight to foul MSU late in the game and that was his only use - his 5 fouls. Just a massive miss at this point for a program that could not afford a whiff.
I dont see much different next year in terms of athleticsm. You take away Caris and replace with another wing in Robinson who wont be anywhere near Caris' skill. And not his athleticism - despite the height advantage. Everyone else returns and all we will have is some remote hope DJ Wilson's body fills out. He and Dwakins are the only guys who you really see serious potential athleticism. But Wilson looked as lost as Chatman when he played against mid major types early and does not look physical. I dont buy it was an "injury" - I saw a guy way out of his depth and needing a RS so they found a way to RS him (which was the right decision).
The year after Teske is another guy with a very slight frame who wont be "big 10 ready" in terms of being physical probably until late in his SO year so we're talking mid 2017 when Doyle and Teske are a combo and can provide actual physicality. Donnal is a 4 playing out of position and zero factor on defense.
So yes we will get improved play out of our guards and wings. But inside its going to be the same story unless some miracle arrives in Wilson via Camp Sanderson.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:16 AM ^
the system was set up for the bigs to box out and the guards to clean up so they can push the ball. It was working fine until Walton got injured against Villanova.
It also seems like you don't realize just how good a rebounding guard Walton is. He may be the best rebounding guard I've ever seen at UM, and that goes back to the Gary Grant years. Walton's rebounding is part of why that kid will definitely be on an NBA roster someday.
February 18th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^
this is where downvoting drives me crazy. Please, let me see your argument to that post, instead. It's a short post, so it doesn't require a long response. Good luck.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:20 AM ^
We won a conference title in 2012 with a frontline of Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, and Evan Smotrycz. We won a conference title last year with a frontline of Morgan, Horford, and Bielfeldt. McGary was a big, physical player for our Final Four run, but even he wasn't exactly known for his huge vertical.
I don't know why people obsess so much over our frontcourt. Yes, it's weak on the glass. We should all realize by now that Beilein does not emphasize rebounding and low-post scoring. Yet for some reason, that hasn't stopped him from having tremendous success here.
We suck right now because we lost our top 7 players from last year. That's pretty much it.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:02 AM ^
We should all realize by now that Beilein does not emphasize rebounding and low-post scoring. Yet for some reason, that hasn't stopped him from having tremendous success here.Which is a strategy a lot of college coaches have adopted to great success. The only major program that still emphasizes physical defense and low post play is MSU and Izzo has taken a lot of criticism in the media in recent years as being a coach who has not adapted to more modern trends in the college game. Losing twice to them this season sucks, but back in early January when Michigan was pulling off surprising wins against Illinois and Nebraska, while MSU was losing to Nebraska, everybody was writing about how Beilein had passed Izzo.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:18 AM ^
Their strategy won't work in the NCAA tournament either. Contrary to what some here think, they are a very mediocre team and you will see that when they lose to Wisconsin, Illinois,and Indiana.
I doubt they win any more than one game in the tournament and I wouldn't even bet on them winning a single game. Their opponent will be in the bonus in no time. The NCAA tournament games are reffed in that manner.
They won't have the talent to over come it. It works when you get hometown calls (like the ridiculous call on MAAR in the first game). That call changed the completely. Up 7 and MAAR on fire. But some like to pretend that didn't play a role in the game.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:53 PM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 9:00 AM ^
If you are going to count on FIVE future NBA wings guards on your team in the future you can work without a "very good" big. And one of those FIVE was a NPOY. Are you going to build your system around that hope or adjust to reality that most years UM might have 2-3 future NBA types along with a bunch of good college players? When you dont have an entire NBA backcourt at all times it helps to have a front court that you know - can actually jump, block a shot, rebound in traffic, make a shot outside of 3 feet.
Again everyone explains away the lack of frontcourt in 2012-2013 as a reason we can just go out there and win. They seem to forget we had Burke, Nik, GR3, and THJ - FOUR NBA players surrounding that 5. Yes Nik and GR3 were not finshed products then but still FOUR NBA products. I dont include Caris that year because he was not yet ready. And oh yeah Mitch got us key baskets in multiple games in our run. We didnt have the severe droughts of offense late that year because of pick n roll with Burke and Mitch.
Then we followed that team up with a team that had 3 NBA wings on it at once with Nik, Caris and GR3.
But my point is not even about offense - its defense/rebounding. That's where it kills us. Beilein's team usually find ways to score but there are going to be off nights. When we have offnights we should not be obliterated by Iowa. That goes to our defense and rebounding and lack of athleticism up front.
So yes if we constantly have 3+ NBA wings/guards on our team at all times we can go into every game hoping to shoot the lighs out and saying defense and rebounding are marginal concerns. I don't get that concept - its like playing Rich Rich at UM - all offense, forget defense and special teams.
Even when we had Caris and Walton you saw the deficiencies this year early. Its the same issues we've had in the past, we just had the best Kenpom offense in decades last year and 4 NBA guard/wings the prior year (and Mitch). You have to adjust your system to the reality there are going to be years you dont have that level of talent - because you wont always have that talent.
And no my expectation is not final 4 or elite 8 every year but our downside should be a MSU type of play this year - that is not a very talented team. Trice played out of his mind yesterday but its basically a 3 player team with a lot of spare parts like Costello Schilling Forbes and 3 freshman around 1 quasi NBA guy and 2 decent Big 10 players in Valentine and Trice. They jack up 3s all day just like we do. But when they miss its not an automatic rebound for the other team. Their defensive boards are not a shitshot. I dont even blame the guys we have out there - they seem either weak, young or just not mentally ready. I dont even blame Beilein at this moment because he has young bigs.
BUt "the system" he has works wonders with 4 NBA wings guards. So would any damn system. He needs to look again at the system and ask how he can not make the floor so low when he does not roll out NBA wing after NBA wing - which is going to be the case many years. He is not as WVA or Canisius where he cannot get athletic bigs. He can do that here.
February 18th, 2015 at 1:13 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 2:09 AM ^
Kentucky lost in the 2nd round of the NIT in 2013 then made it to the NCG in 2014. Ergo Michigan will lose in the second round of the... uhh... CBI? Then come back next year and win it all. That's how it works. Haven't you heard? Anything less and you are a homer fan who doesn't believe in Beilein.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:12 AM ^
I don't understand your pessimism. Beilein has delivered the first two conference championships since Reagan was president, made the Final Four and until this season flipped the script on MSU making us an annual punchline, and you want to, what? Fire him?
I guess if there is a testament to the resurgence of the basketball program under Beilein it's the increase of expectations around here regardless of what hte personnel situation looks like.
February 18th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 2:37 AM ^
However, you did state Irvin could be ready to make the NBA jump after next year. Honestly, I don't see it with him. Literally nothing about him suggests he could be anything in the NBA. He is a really long and athletic player who can shoot the three. However, shooting the three seems to be the only thing he ever really does, and a lot of the time he isn't doing it well. To me, he seems like a defensive liabilty at times and isn't nearly as aggressive as he should be on offense. He's a THJ type player but THJ had the kind of mentality you need with that sort of skillset. That mentality is being aggressive. Irvin has more of the "passive" GR3 mentality. Not necessarily that he doesn't take shots(Which GR3 did sometimes) but he settles for a bunch of contested, garbage three's that barely go in. I can't tell you how frustrated I get when I see him pass up a free lane to the rim or a much easier mid range jumper for a three. I'm not trying to be mean to him or say he has little to no chance, but at this point, I'm really starting to wonder if he'll ever come close to fulfilling the promise we all know he has.
February 18th, 2015 at 3:40 AM ^
Irvin is a player that is reliant on others. He can't be the go to guy, at least right now.
Whats troubling is that his shot has been off all season. Even the wide open ones are being missed way too often.
Even during this game, there was enough Openish Threes at the beginning. We rarely made them.
I don't necessarily think him not being a NBA player is a bad thing.
He looks like he can be a competent 4 year college player. With a full roster and working off others, that is probably best for the future of this program.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:45 AM ^
why it's okay for Michgan State to slap the floor at Crisler, but when Joe Bolden puts a stake in the ground at Spartan Stadium it becomes a national headline? I must be missing something because this seems like a giant double standard.
February 18th, 2015 at 3:25 AM ^
One reason is because our coach will never make a big deal about it. At least not publically. He won't go whining like a little bitch to the media like a certain couple coaches there. And if he did, I am sure he would be somehow at fault.
Thats the advanatge you have when you are the second rate instution in the state. Its cute and cuddly when you do these things and its called passion. Plus when the local media is basically a big slurp fest of your teams, they certainly won't call you out. The school is irrelevant nationally so it won't be a story.
Thats why both there coaches can continue to run their mouths and face no consquences.
When Michigan does something, its disrespect and arrogant.
Outside of this season, Michigan has been the better program for a few years. But from the coverage around the media here, you would never have known that.
February 18th, 2015 at 3:08 AM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 3:32 AM ^
For me, I have always been pretty intense for both sports.
But I think a lot of people are becoming less and less into it and have become disgruntled because of the losses.
I get people being pissed off at losses when we are full strength. If we had lost this game with Walton and Levert, I probably would have trashed my entire house.
That's kinda of why I am rooting so hard so this team.
I will still watch and probably will make the trip to see the last two games.
February 18th, 2015 at 4:14 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 4:16 AM ^
Walton was never 100% after that Villanova game. I think it was either a late nonconference game or one of the first few home conference games, he went towards the bench to talk with Beilein and there was a closeup and I couldn't believe the noticeable limp.
He wasn't going to the rim a lot probably because he couldn't.
It shows what a gamer he was because he made numerous crucial plays to get us wins early i n the conference season.
It looks like he went all out versus Wisconsin and strained himself too much.
Also, we have Spike who ever since around the time of the the Syracuse game was said to be battling a lower body injury.
I can't really complain too much about him. Beilein admitted that Spike was never recruited with the intention of playing this many minutes. He hasn't been perfect, but he has made numerous tough shots. The only time I had issue with him was when he was passing up a lot of shots late in the nonconference/early Big Ten season. Beilein kept mentioning that he told Spike he has to shoot when open.
Just a completely ridiculous year injurywise for Michigan Sports.
February 18th, 2015 at 4:22 AM ^
but people keep ignoring the reality. And people kept ignoring it much earlier in the season, when I posted that you could see even from the way he was landing on rebounds that his foot was messed up.
February 18th, 2015 at 6:41 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
you're kidding right? he is far better as a frosh than costello or schilling were. plus, he was supposed to redshirt this year. he has really good post up skills for a frosh. his game will only get better.
February 18th, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 6:52 AM ^
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February 18th, 2015 at 10:42 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 6:59 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 7:06 AM ^
The OP threw some stats out there, but here are four factors from last night:
eFG%: Michigan - 47.92%, Michigan State - 68.00%
OREB%: Michigan - 29.41%, Michigan State - 37.50%
FTR: Michigan - 58.33%, Michigan State - 34.00%
TOV%: Michigan - 9.05%, Michigan State - 12.22%
So, we did well enough at the line, and this was a low turnover affair (which you want), but we were flat out outshot. Of note, however, is the 1.21 offensive PPP for Michigan - you would have to go back to the NJIT game for a higher PPP. The flip side of that is Michigan State's offensive PPP, which was 1.43, which makes it our worst defensive performance. Our A/T ratio was 1.667, which was the highest since the Illinois game (the one we won, that is).
February 18th, 2015 at 7:23 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 7:56 AM ^
Those guys visits coincided with our 2013 season. The arena was rocking every home game that season. So the atmosphere excuse doesn't apply.
I do agree that the Kentucky crowds and Indiana enviroment are two of the best there is.
But stop acting because people left early yesterday had anything to do with these guys decisions.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:13 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 8:42 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 10:36 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 8:17 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 8:22 AM ^
The crowd was there for the team. The place would have erupted had Doyle not botched that easy, well executed first play of the game.
In these type of games, you have to start fast and get the crowd going. Too slow a start negates some of that advantage.
Attended the Iowa game. The crowd wanted to explode when we started that furious comeback. But Chatman missed an easy rebound and let his guy hit a three.
The crowd is there for these guys, but they have to make the plays to take the crowd to another level.
February 18th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
that one handed rebound dunk miss by dawkins which ended up being a quick 3 on the other end. 5 pt swing there. that would have brought the house down.
February 18th, 2015 at 7:40 AM ^
February 18th, 2015 at 8:17 AM ^
Then they slowly erode and regress to the mean, never really being relevant since.
Unfortunately, I see some striking similarities. I hope I'm wrong.
February 18th, 2015 at 8:25 AM ^
That team wasn't recruited by Bruce Weber. He reaped the benefits of Bill Self's work.
Weber slowly lost control of his team until his firing. They had talent imo. Mid-way through 2012 things started to fall off for him.