Michigan Basketball is down but will return.

Submitted by MichiganMan14 on

We have a legitimate attrition issue at Michigan.  Our kids tend to leave a year earlier than they should and we have transfers that inspire curiosity.  Beilein does a very good job at doing more with less but at some point we have to stop the bleeding.  We became a great program again by having a few "Program Guys" like Stu, Zak and Jordan.  We complimented it with a few nice recruiting classes despite those classes being littered with 3 stars with minimal offer sheets.  Our staff coached those kids into All-Americans and we won 2 B1G titiles and finished 2nd in the NCAA tourney.  

The recruiting misses over the past couple of years are starting to simply catch up.  Beilein has to close on recruits better.  The Devin Booker and James Blackmon misses were simply catastrophic.   You cannot afford to lose elite guard play if you're not getting it in the form of recruits.  It baffles me why Michigan has such a hard time closing on some of these top level recruits.  Given the recent track record of Michigan's annual sacrifice to the NBA Gods...you would think we'd have to beat the recruits off with a stick...but that is clearly not the case.  We will likely settle this year with a D3 transfer, albeit a promising one.  That's not going to cut it and everyone reading this likely knows it as well.  

The recruits that we did land last year were of the rushed variety save for Doyle and Chatman. Doyle has been quality for a freshman big but has tapered off rapidly since December.  Chatman has been a sizeable disaapointment.  He looks a step slow and lost at times.  Hopefully his sophomore year will show vast improvement because he still shows flashes here and there.  We needed DJ Wilson this year plain and simple.  We do not have any athleticism in our big man ranks.  I think Dawkins  and MAAR project well in the future from an athletic and defensive standpoint and they have turned out surprisingley well on offense.  We still needed more star-power and we didn't land it.  

Injuries have trashed our season.  Not only are Levert and Walton our best players....they're our defensive engines.  We cannot play man defense without them.  Our on ball defense suffers greatly with them out.  Spike is simply a defensive liability. The freshman are coming along nicely but still not ready to lock down opponents.  The Wilson injury was brutal and forced us to give extended minutes to Donnal who is simply not ready for significant and consistent contribution. 

The ELEPHANT in the room is the Caris Levert decision.  It's very simple honestly.....if he goes we will be decent to good next year.  Likely 20+ wins.  The problem is that Irvin and Walton will shoulder a ton of scoring.  This will put at least Irvin in line to make the NBA jump after next year.  Our next deep run will come with an upper-classmen laiden squad.  Levert leaving will put a serious damper in that.  His foot will be healed up around Pre-Draft workouts and his decision will be interesting to say the least.  If Levert came back....Michigan would be good to elite.  Huge jump, I know...but Caris is a Wooden Award guy next year as a Senior.  He's a shoe in for B1G POY candidacy and a top 10 draft pick in 2016 if healthy.   Just take a peek at our potential lineup with Levert in Maize and BLue next year......

Walton (jr) - SPike (sr)

Irvin(jr) -  MAAR (so)

Levert (sr) - Dawkins (so) / Robinson (Rso)

Chatman (so) - Wilson (So)

Doyle (So)-  Donnal (Rso)

 

In order for us to get back to where we were, someone is going to have to make a "Program" decision.  I won't rib our guys for going and getting paid but I sensed a little bit of pain and heavy thought on GR3's face tonight.  I personally think he should have stayed.  He would've been featured and flourished into a likely 1st round pick.  I don't want Caris to make a similar mistake.  Caris needs to clean up a few aspects of his game in my opinion and put on 15 more pounds to be an asset at the next level.  He can obviously get drafted this year but will he be effective?  Nik has learned that a top 10 selection means nothing as far as effectiveness and play time.  He was paid a handsome ransome and wound up on a guard heavy team so you can argue fairness to his situation.  Mitch has looked like an absolute beast as of late and he wouldv'e easily trashed the NCAA if he was still enrolled at Michigan.  Caris will have our fate in his hands with his decision and he should absolutely make the decision for his best interest.  It would just be nice to see a kid with his ability stay and lead us as a Senior.  

In regards to tonight's ass whipping.....we gave up 62% shooting.  We were out-rebounded by 8 and out-blocked 3 to 1.  We lost the assist battle by 7.  We were beat in every phase of the game and going zone all day against a team that is streaky-good like MSU, renders you liable to watch them have a great night shooting the basketball.  We looked dissinterested for stretches of the 1st half and looked far inferior athletically.  That frickin' hurts because we have been explosive and athletic the last couple of years and watching MSU swing off of our rims all night is simply not acceptable.  Our team is beat up and disadvantaged but we've got to stop feeling sorry for ourselves.  Guys like Spike and Irvin need to play a lot better.  THis is their opportunity to lead and take this program over in Levert and Walton's absence.  We need more from them.  Irvin and Spike continue to disspoint defensively and that is unnacceptable from veteran guys.  Bielein has a huge task on his hands to get this team to finish with some pride this season.  It's going to have to start from the top though.  MAAR shouldn't have to be the spark.  The fresman should be playing up to match the veteran guys, not the other way around.    The disparity athleticlaly was very evident tonight.  I think we need to really make a focus of getting more athletic in these next few recruiting classes.  

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Pinky

February 18th, 2015 at 12:21 AM ^

The fact that we need this thread is just sad.  In case people forgot, we won the conference in dominating fashoin last year.

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Tater

February 18th, 2015 at 1:10 AM ^

It's one bad year.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Every player getting significant time will be back with the exception of Caris, who isn't actually getting significant time.  Duncan Robinson should help out quite a bit.  

The Wolverines will be fine.

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ijohnb

February 18th, 2015 at 6:08 AM ^

may be reasons to fear it is more than a blip. Now is likely not the time to discuss them, but our lack of front court strength and athleticism does not appear accidental, it appears to be part of a "formula" that may not be sustainable for high level competition. I have truly been stunned at JB's refusal to not at least try to run with two bogs during important stretches when it is abundantly clear that we need size on the floor above all else.

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True Blue Grit

February 18th, 2015 at 7:30 AM ^

What you just stated.  He always puts undersized lineups on the court and it clearly costs us some games.  He has to rely on the outside shooting too much, which means if we play a team that's tough in the paint AND can play good perimeter defense, we're dead.  

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klctlc

February 18th, 2015 at 8:57 AM ^

Lack of athletic big is killing m. Gr3,Morgan and McGraw were able to defend and finish in traffic. Doyle has potential but next year is repeat of this year. Donnall and chatman "misses" are killing team. I know it early on chatman, but he is lost out there. Levert, Maar, Dawkins and Walton will help.. Btw, Irvin and Walton will play 4 years. Nba is a big stretch for both. So that will help next2 years

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ijohnb

February 18th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^

Chatman is clearly raw, but Beilein's system is not flexible enough to even really allow him the opportunity to flourish in the situations where be may be able to.  What we are running right now is so telegraphed that it is becomming very easy to defend, defenders are beating our guys to their spots on a regular basis, they are overplaying the wing and forcing as back door where help is waiting and we have nobody to dump it to because we have no finishers.  This leads to these ridiculous baseline drives that are not producing any looks, and we do it time, after time, after time, after time.......

Give Chapman an iso every once in a while, god forbid we clear out a little room to see if that is what he needs.  Clearly, the entire fricking nation did not miss on this guy, there is something there nearly everybody wanted but instead of exploring a little JB just sits him because he doesn't have a "role" in the system.

Beilein has earned a free pass or two, and the injuries this year have been unfortunate, but he has a level of stubborness about some things that I think is really becomming problematic.  The auto-bench is a good example of this.  It is like he refuses to accept that there are some times that you have to adapt to the situation and I feel like it amounts to self-sabatoge at times.

The refusal to play a bigger lineup may in fact, be a serious issue in terms of recruiting also.  Most wing players tend to, ya know, want to play the wing, and not have to deal with defending the post and rebouding all the time.

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ijohnb

February 18th, 2015 at 10:36 AM ^

that he is not a good spot up shooter, we don't have enough data to determine if he could be an effective scorer if given space and time.  My guess is that he operates best with his back to the basket with shoulder/head fakes and that he could finish if we got him in some situations where he could post smaller defenders.  We won't know because that seemingly will never happen or be considered.

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umchicago

February 18th, 2015 at 10:52 AM ^

he is playing the 4.  i could see him getting more opportunities at the free throw line extended like GRlll.  but he has a lot of work to do on both ends of the court.

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ijohnb

February 18th, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^

goes into the point I made above that one, he is not a 4, he is a stretch 3 who should be making his waves posting smaller 3s.  If we don't begin to see it, at least a little bit, he may be the last wing recruit we land for a very long time.

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LS And Play

February 18th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^

This is a fair point, but a big part of the reason we had the best offense in the country the last 2 years is because we could spread people out with 4 shooters. With 2 bigs you lose some of the spacing that Beilein's offense depends on to be so efficient, and the offense would be more prone to getting shut down. Now, that could certainly help on the defensive end, but it's a trade-off either way. 

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ijohnb

February 18th, 2015 at 10:42 AM ^

we don't have the shooters to fill out those positions.  So we are running a small line up with streaky at best shooters who cannot get their own shot and cannot defend because they are undersized.  We are taking really no action designed at minimizing our deficiencies.  It just does not make sense to me right now.

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Wolverine Devotee

February 18th, 2015 at 12:21 AM ^

It's almost impossible to be elite every year AND produce NBA first round/lottery picks unless you cheat.

And even then, Kentucky had an NIT year. 

Anyone who thinks this is how next year is going to be is a delusional fool.

This team is essentially 2010-11 in terms of youth but is without 2 star players who will eventually play in the NBA.

Also: Duncan fucking Robinson rocking that Bill Buntin #22 makes his debut next year. Enough said. 

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bo_lives

February 18th, 2015 at 12:54 AM ^

I can't count the number of times Michigan fans have brought up the fact that Kentucky was relegated to the NIT in 2013 then made it to the NCG in 2014. You can argue that Michigan will rebound next year a la 2010, but I really don't see how the situation compares to what Kentucky went through.

In 2013 Kentucky had had the top recruiting class in the country for 5 years running and was about to bring in one of the best classes of all time (#2, #3, #4, #6, #9, and #17 players, each of them a McDonald's All-American, plus 2 more guys and a walk-on). For them, 2013 was considered an enormous letdown and the odds were in their favor. There was reason to believe the

On the other hand, Michigan will be bringing in exactly the same team they had this year, plus Duncan Robinson and minus Levert.

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bo_lives

February 18th, 2015 at 1:23 AM ^

because Kentucky did?

My point is that the comparison doesn't really hold up so it's pointless to bring Kentucky into the picture, especially since Duke and Kansas prove that it's not impossible to put up top draft picks and be elite every year. And let's face it, MSU had two first rounders this past year and also had very weak or nonexistent recruiting classes, yet somehow Izzo has made them contenders. So they qualify too.

Beilein has proven himself before and can do so again. But he will have to do so in a non-Kentucky fashion.

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DetroitBlue

February 18th, 2015 at 1:44 AM ^

Pretty sure the implication was simply that it's hard to compete at the highest level indefinitely. Even UK, with all their talent, had an off year. I don't think he was saying that just because they came back strong that we're guaranteed a spot in the final four or anything, but that the run we've had the last 3-4 years just couldn't be sustained forever



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WolverineinSB

February 18th, 2015 at 1:56 AM ^

It's the point that early entries hurt even the elite recruiting teams. Duke and Kansas seems to have an incredible ability to keep enough players for 4yrs that the huge drop off doesn't happen. So they aren't a perfect example for this type of situation bc they always seem to have senior leaders



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freejs

February 18th, 2015 at 12:21 AM ^

this was never going to be a talent-rich year. We're simply not a program that can sustain 5 early entries in two years. We don't have WWW on speed dial. We don't do dirty. 

And what people don't understand is that you take a team that's not talent-rich and remove the two best players - and make no mistake, those two guys were our best players by far - and it's going to look hideous. 

It's hard to see how people don't grasp this - if you have 1000 bucks and someone takes 5 off of you, you can buy a used laptop. If you have 10 bucks and lose 5, you can shop at subway. Not complicated. 

And then you look at the young talent - does anyone seriously regret that we signed Dawkins and MAAR? Dawkins looks like a clear top 100 recruit to me, and MAAR at last a top 150. 

Wilson is going to be fantastic. 

Robinson is supposed be looking great. 

This is brutal - tough to watch. 

People are being ridiculous. 

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MichiganMan14

February 18th, 2015 at 12:31 AM ^

I still think that there is an issue with attrition though.  Why do all of our kids go early?  Even the  Darius Morris....Manny Harris and GR3 types that clearly need more time?  Why do we have guys like Smotrycz and Horford transfer on top of that attrition.  Then the McGary smoking debaccle.  C'mon.....I mean the NCAA nails non-participants with that stupid drug test every year at bowl games and NCAA tourney time.  We need to tighten up a few aspects of our program to avoid this ridiculous attrition.  The injuries are another story but at the end of the day Michigan Basketball is going to be expected to win games.  We're a .500 team now and weve lost to Eastern and NJIT this yaar when healthy.  Not acceptable honestly.  Next year needs to be a strong rebound from this year.  

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freejs

February 18th, 2015 at 12:37 AM ^

so no, we were not healthy. 

Agreed about kids going early - I honestly think the problem is that our kids actually have to go to class. 

The transfers, I don't worry about. People were freaking out when Colton Christian left. I think this staff is both brutally honest with guys about what their roles are and maybe are in it for the kids to a fault. Ready to go pro? No Izzo fucking guilt trips with this staff. You might have a better role at a different school? The staff is going to be honest with you about what's likely and what's possible. 

And none of the transfers really hurt, imo. Horford sucks like unfathomably - I have watched him in like 6 or 7 games this year and it is impossible to overstate how terrible he is, and Smotrycz would be driving everyone crazy if he was still here (although he'd be gone by now). He is so soft it's crazy. I've watched a bunch of Maryland games, as well. 

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M-Dog

February 18th, 2015 at 1:41 AM ^

We do seem to get the short end of both sides of the stick.  We forego elite athletes to get high-character "team" guys, and those guys go and leave in 2 years anyway.  

We might as well have gone for the one-and-done and two-and-through guys. The outcome would have been the same, minus the first tumultuous year of player development.

If I'm never going to have a Semior and Junior heavy team, then I'd like those Freshman and Sophomores that I have to start be big bodies and elite athletes.

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