On a serious note...I think GR3 needs another year of offensive maturation before he makes the jump. The difference in the NBA is that they can cut you. No guarantees once you declare....you better bring it....not sure GR3 is ready for that.
Michigan Basketball: Domination until further notice. (2015/2016 outlook)
Maybe he leaves because his fans keep spelling his name wrong.
You keep saying "it's his dream." No shit. He's a college basketball player, and that can be said for probably 90% of all college basketball players, ever. That's doesn't mean every kid who has an NBA dream bails before it makes sense (though some do).
Stauskus and McGary are gone. That's as good as done. It would be unwise for these kids to stay.
GR3 - more questionable, but most likely he's gone too.
But the real questions are, how do you "throw pre-reqs" at someone? And, how do you "practice grief"? Are there classes for that?
I don't think McGary leaving is as certain as you think. I can't see why he would leave for the NBA when he has the chance to greatly improve his draft stock next season. If he somehow ends up playing in the tourney, I might change my opinion.
How can anyone claim that McGary is certainly gone?
1. Hit reply button.
2. Type "McGary is certainly gone."
But in all seriousness, I did explain my logic more in a post below.
How exactly is McGary as good as gone. He has played 1.3 seasons at Michigan and approximately 6 games of NBA type ball. Many GMS will disagree. Stauskas is outstanding but if you think he is just good and ready to go toe to toe with Lebron...KD....and Melo...Cmon. There is a difference between being a great college player and a great pro. If you don't project as a serious organization changing draft selection I'm not so sure giving up 2 years of eligibility is the best move one can make. There is a difference between a Jabari Parker and a Wiggins and a late first round or second round like some of our guys are projected.
Your whole logic throughout this thread is that the NBA drafts on a college body of work. This is certainly not the case. All one has to do is look at the guys who have skipped college altogether and who were drafted after one season. If McGary shows he can play up to his potential during draft workouts, his body of college work is near meaningless. The question is whether he will be healthy around draft time. If he is, as reports seem to suggest, he's gone.
His college body of work is not meaningless, and will likely play a large part in determining whether he comes back or not. He will get his draft analysis, which will be built on what those people know. They know he was pretty raw, that he had a great tourney run, and that he missed almost a full year due to a back injury.
He has as much bad as he has good. If I were him, I wouldn't declare until I can show scouts I can play at a high level while healthy. Draft workouts won't show that, and as long as that red flag is there, I'm leaving money on the table. If you can improve your stock from 30th overall to 20th overall, the money you gave up will be made up for and then some.
I said "near meaningless" for a reason. But you are right, his college body of work is more meaningful than "near meaningless", but I just dont think its as meaningful as you portay.
I don't follow college basketball that closely but it seems like Michigan has been more prone to players leaving early than other schools, with the exception of the Jabari Parkers of the world. Is this because of the level of talent we're now getting or are other schools just more successful at keeping their players 3 or all 4 years? Is Beilein positioning Michigan as a two and done place to attract the better players?
You have a confirmation bias. Lots of schools have early declarations. The reason you're seeing more Michigan kids flirt with the draft is because of 1) talent identification and 2) talent development, 2 things Beilein is exceptional at
in this day and age if you're one of the premier college programs in the country (say year in and year out Top 15ish), you are more then likely losing at least one player early to the nba every year.
I don't know about that. I'd say you're 50/50 to have a player leave early. How many programs haven't had one in a few years - MSU, OSU, UNC, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Louisville. Did any of those schools have an early entry last year? I might be wrong on some of those, but I know I'm missing some too.
would make for a competitive starting five in the B1G. Please let it happen. I have to think Doyle would get to RS in that situation too. That's been the main benefit of Bielfeldt so far, giving us the chance to RS Donnal and possibly Doyle.
getting Wilson a RS would happen too. A year in the weight room for him with his length would turn him into a monster. Was watching his highlights last night; plays like Austin Daye, college version.
As long as he doesn't play like Austin Daye, pro version.
But that's why I think him putting on weight isn't a huge deal. Guys like Daye or Tayshaun have been very successful at the college level that thin. Levert too. I'm sure he'll put on some weight naturally between his senior season and his frosh season here, but in basketball that's not as big of a deal.
While I share the OP's enthusiasm, it does seem premature to make claims about the future. Yes, this year's team has already exceeded expectations (especially considering the loss of McGary), but perhaps we should wait to see what this team does in the tournament before proclaiming the future of Michigan basketball is full of sunshine and unicorns. I'm optimistic, but I also realize just a few things not quite turning out the way we hope could lead to a less than stellar season.
M bball is not mythical
We're in good shape regardless of our Sophomore decisions (I think all 3 leave, fwiw). Your point is made. But there's no sense in predicting wins right now. The Big Ten is very very good. OSU, Indiana, and Maryland figure to have extremely talented teams in the next few years. Wisco is always good. MSU talent takes a step back on paper, but let's not kid ourselves. They'll be very good. Iowa should be in mix. Nebraska, Illinois, and Purdue have either good coaching, solid talent, or both. NW has some reason for optimism. Minny loses a lot in the short term, but I'll buy on Pitino.
My point is, the conference is great. No sense in sitting here and salivating over our roster because they'll have to earn every win, every year. But we are in good shape to be a contender with our best and worst case scenarios.
You put a lot of time and effort into this post.
You could have spent that time doing something amazing!
This made me lol.
GRIII is the hardest to get a read on. On the one hand, he might be better off in a professional environment. I don't think he is getting pushed hard enough on the college level, and he needs to be pushed. On the other hand, of the three, he seems the most likely to benefit from the experience of another season at Michigan, in more of a leadership role, another year older. I imagine the NBA would like to see him become more assertive, and that will likely happen if he stays.
McGary is a natural leader and will be on the next level. There really isn't any question about that if he is healthy, and there's the rub -- the decision really depends on his health. We don't know all that much about how it fits into preparing for the NBA combine and other workouts. Staying at Michgan another year would allow him complete control over his rehab, but maybe that's not enough -- his second contract in the NBA will be a big one, and if he stays he delays that by a year. Nonetheless, I tend to agree with the people who are saying he should stay and become a lottery pick next year.
Stauskas seems (to me) like he wants to go. I also tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that he has progressed as far as he can at Michigan. He can reprise this year and be just fine, maybe improving as a defender.
In sum, I think GRIII might be persuaded to stay, by his father and others. But McGary is gone if he is healthy. Stauskas I don't know.
I'm fairly pessimistic but I think all three leave. If you had asked me a month ago, I'd say GR3 stayed, but the way he's played of late makes me think he's gone. Stauskas has earned it. I just don't see McGary staying with everyone else leaving, but he's the most likely to stay in my opinion.
It's just too hard to project out the future given the huge uncertainties not only with who's staying, but who's coming in. I like the discussion but there is absolutely nothing to go on here as far as speculation.
Every win has to be earned. Michigan could lose on Friday, for example.
There's no way we retain all 3 of these guys. I could see legitimate situations where each individual guy will want to stay, but the odds of getting them all back are slim to nill. Just from a pure odds standpoint.
I think there's a good chance McGary comes back. Yes he won't want to further risk injury, but he doesn't have much stock to work with now anyway (6 game stretch from a year ago). Might want to take another year to re-establish it. One more year could bring him to lottery pick status.
I think Stauskas is gone since he's playing really well and his stock might not get much higher, and GRIII is probably gone too. I could see him staying, and he might want to stay one more year to establish more assertiveness on the court. But I don't see him staying.
I think McGary stays and we lose the other two. It'll hurt, but someone(s) will step up and fill production. And with betting on the further development of Walton, Irvin, Albrecht, and LeVert, and some pretty good freshmen on the way, it might be a pick your poison type of situation.
He's using Irvin as the only backup at three positions this season and he's not getting a lot of minutes. I can't see how he'll be compelled to burn Wilson's redshirt to add depth in your most likely scenario. I'd bank on on 8-9 man rotations continuing to be the norm however the roster shakes out.
I think you underestimate how the likelihood that GRIII and Mitch leave. The NBA is quite different from how football players develop and needing time. The vast majority of college basketball players are predetermined to not play in the NBA because of the step up. As several other posters have mentioned, the NBA drafts quite often on potential. And any player development that can be done in college, can more easily be done in the NBA where you are focusing exclusively on basketball (obviously excludes situations where players are focusing on partying/social life more).
The question becomes what is the cost/benefit ratio to staying. Basically, what return will GRIII or Mitch get if they stay. That benefit diminishes significantly as you get older in college. Yes, both Glenn and Mitch can develop more, but why can't they do that in the NBA. One of the issues with age is that few players are ready to make an immediate impact and take years to develop. If you're younger when you enter the NBA, then when you hit that level or preparedness, you are that much younger and will have that many extra years to play.
I think Glenn is more likely to go than not, especially if he gets a 1st Round grade. Mitch has to ask whether staying will boost his stock. He probably isn't a first round grade with the back injuries, but will another year of college cure that problem, especially when he gets another year older? Maybe. If it won't, he will want to enter the draft and start preparing for his career there.
If all three leave, I think we see a lot more Spike and Walton line-ups. Also, lots of 38+ games for Levert. Chatman will probably be more of a SF, although certainly can play SG. I don't know if Wilson will be ready to contribute immediately. And, although Biefeldt is shorter, he is more of a C than PF. If we lose all 3, we probably take a step back, unless Levert, Walton, and Irvin all take a big step forward (quite possible) and Donnal is ready to go.
There is a wise saying that things are never as bad as you fear when you are down and never as good as you think when you are up. This rule probably applies to euphoric projections for the upcoming basketball seasons. For instance, don't be surprised if McGary goes pro this year, being worried about how scouts will view his age. Or GR3 going pro, realizing that his stock is based on potential, not performance. I hope neither of these happens, but one may very well take place. Let's just live in the present and enjoy these great days under our wonderful Coach Beilein.
Per Sam Webb today on the recruiting roundup, Jamal Murray was at the game Saturday. You might notice a couple of things from his profile. He's ranked #24 by Rivals, is a point guard and he's from ...Windsor. You have to believe he loves what he saw at the game.
I love Canadian guards.
The podcast mentions several other BB recruits there and there is an update on Tyrone Wheatley Jr.'s recruitment.
There's been enough noise about all three of them going that I'll assume it likely until (happily) proven otherwise. But after the way this year's team demolished expectations, I'm not going to count out next year's group. LeVert with another 15lbs is going to be a load to try to keep from penetrating, and I think Walton's game takes a major leap forward. If Irvin can develop his all-around game and go from a pure shooter/scorer into a quality overall player, that team will be plenty good. If by some miracle we even get one of those three guys back, then count me thrilled.
My biggest concern going forward in general is finding a quality big man, ie not just a stretch four or tall guy that can shoot, but someone with some semblance of a post game, some rebounding and defensive ability, etc. Assuming McGary goes, there doesn't seem to be anyone behind Horford that fits that mold, and he'll be gone the following season.
In your 2015-2016 scenario, I could see Caris leaving after next year putting Chatman at the 3 and Zak Irvin at the 2.
I think all 3 leave and are drafted in the first round. Nik on the edge of the lottery. Glenn and Mitch mid to late first where good teams can take the chance on potential while being patient. The NBA Draft is all about potential and less on production. I think both Glenn and Mitch will impress in pre-draft workouts and will be too enticing to pass up. I know people think Glenn is not ready for the NBA and and he probably isn't. That hasn't stopped guys before. I think he is like a passive Shawn Marion when he was at UNLV. Marion scored a lot on dunks and put backs at UNLV. Marion was a much better rebounder but Glenn has a much better form on his shot. I think with his form his percentage improves. Marion was the 9th pick in his draft. Marion developed a three point shot while in the NBA. I think Glenn has a chance to really develop at Michigan or the NBA in the next couple years. If he develops an edge his game goes to another level some guys never do. Either way I appreciate what they've done for the program and we know the coaching staff will have the next man up mentality.
Got a BTT to win and an NCAA tourney to make a run in first. Check back in April.
It's going to be very tough for Bielfeldt to get minutes going forward, even if McGary/GRIII leave.
Donnal, Chatman, and Wilson all have the size/length to play the four in Beilein's system and offer much greater skill (Donnal probably already has a better jump shot and is a more skilled offensive player, Wilson can shoot, pass, and handle, and Chatman may be the most versatile player on the team next year). Hell, if McGary stays I think playing him at the four alongside Horford/Doyle would offer more upside than putting Moose in. And if GRIII stays...really don't see how Max B gets on the floor.
I don't think we need to land a homerun center in 2015. Obviously, it'd be great, but we've shown we can do some good things without having great centers.
A sophomore center with no defensive credentials and air behind him? No, we need a great recruit who can play fifteen minutes a game his freshman year and challenge for a starting spot.
I don't think we need a "homerun" center, no. We've got scoring and will likely continue to have scoring, so a big body that can just give us a bit of a physical and defensive presence plus pull down his share of rebounds would probably suffice. He won't have to be a 5* - If Beilein snags a 6'10"+ 3* interior player then consider me highly optimistic based on our current hot streak of player development.
To the second point, yes, we've won without a high caliber post player. Of course, you can also look back at what having a great center did for us in March last year vs all the other Beilein teams. Is there any chance we lose to Ohio if we'd had a great post player the year before last? How good would the team that Morris almost lead past Duke have been with a good big? What about the Harris and Sims team if Udoh had stuck around?
I certainly don't want to be accused of sticking a glass ceiling over my expectations for this program in any way, not given what we've accomplished the last two seasons. So let's just say it would make our exemplary achievement at a super high level a little bit easier if we had a big body under the basket.
If we lose all three potential NBA guys this spring, I think that this is probably a 9-9 B1G team next year. Those are just going to be brutal losses to absorb and we are going to have major front court issues. The '14 class isn't as highly regarded as the '12 and '13 classes.
In the years after, I expect us to be better than .500 in the B1G, but I think that we'll need another group like the '12 class to win it outright.
See, if this were the 2012 version of the Big Ten then I would agree that .500 in conference play is likely without the three players in question. I think the conference as a whole will take a pretty big step back next year, especially if players like Vonleh, Dekker and Petteway make the leap. I'd still expect something along the lines of 12-6 or 11-7 if all three UM players left early.
You say the '12 and '13 classes are highly regarded, so remember that some key members will be a year older.
LeVert will return and if he can continue his incremental improvement should be a B1G POY contender. Walton is already showing flashes of being a great point guard and another year working with Lavall Jordan should help him take a big leap. Irvin has had a smaller role, but this guy was still Mr. Basketball. Even if he only improves his defense and remains a one-dimensional shooter, he will still be huge as a third option. If he adds the off-the-dribble game he was expected to have out of high school...will be a serious offensive threat.
On top of all that, Donnal should provide a strong post presence and Beilein's first true pick-and-pop threat (Smotrycz never completely panned out). Kam Chatman looks like a great fit occasionally running the point forward but mainly causing mismatches at every position.
There will probably be defensive growing pains and we may miss the leadership of Morgan, but there will still be enough talent for a 4/5 seed. I think Walton-LeVert could be the best backcourt in the B1G next year.
Where it stands now, I think Stauskas is definitely gone and I would lean towards Robinson and McGary returning. Robinson has improved his play over the last couple weeks but he can still raise his stock more than any other player on the roster if he can get his 3 point % closer to the mid-30's and continue to improve his play making ability. I think Mitch is the most likely to stay simply because his stock just isn't that high as of now. Gun to head, I think both Glenn and Mitch come back next year. If they do return then UM is the clear Big Ten favorite along with Wisconsin. If all 3 were to leave then UM would be around the same level as OSU and IU, meaning a step below the conference favorite but still a threat to win the title.
It's also important to note that with the exception of Mitch and possibly GRIII, no one - not even Beilein, I think - was thinking of any of our potential or actual early entries as such. Beilein was planning on having guys who stuck around for 3-4 years, but he and the staff have just been that good at identifying and developing talent.
And as many others have said, the opportunity to hone what you've been doing best all your life at the highest level with its concomitant compensation is a life-changing thing that more often than not is too good to pass up. There are unfortunately too many cases where jumping to the NBA was the wrong decision - I personally think Darius Morris would've been better off staying - but if you are good enough, you are doing yourself a disservice by staying in college. If I was a rockstar finance major who was being considered as a high draft pick by Chase Manhattan, I could probably better my draft stock by staying in school and I'm very likely not leaving that much money off the table since I can be a hedge fund managar for all my adult life up through my 60's.
That is most assuredly NOT the case for an NBA prospect.
I think the meme that Belein only or primarily recruits guys he thinks are going to stay for 3 to 4 years is bogus. He recruits guys to fill roles, and some guys may take more develpment to fill those roles. Yes, he recruits guys who are not NBA-calibur (again, he recruits to fill roles, not to prepare for the NBA) but this does not mean that he recruits based on the amount of time he thinks they will be around. Looking at a guy like McGary and other guys Belien has gone after, he recruits guys to fill roles, whether those roles will be filled for one year or four years.
What do you think Michigan's starting lineup would have looked like if he had stayed? It's very interesting to think about.
Given Trey Burke's skill level, there is no way he was going to come off the bench. Would that have pushed Stu to the role of sixth man? Personally, I think a backcourt of D-Mo and Trey flanked by THJr. would have been lethal. Morris could run pick and roll all day and Trey would destroy teams by focusing on being a shooter and driver off residual action.
Trey is a great point guard, but if he has been freed up to focus on scoring while Morris played qb for a year...man that offense could really have been something.
Then again, they still won the B1G tournament without D-Mo. Just an interesting thought experiment.
about the NBA is guys can declar, test the waters and if they don't what like they are hearing from scouts, they can come back to college as long as they haven't signed an agent.
There's interesting cases made on both sides of whether certain players should go or stay. A few things to keep in mind. You only get a guaranteed contract if you're a first round pick. You get drafted in the second round and do not make the team, you're scrambling hoping someone picks you up. This is supposed to be a really deep draft. I think Stauskas is gone. Mitch and GRIII I think declare and test the waters. Depending on what they hear from scouts will determine whether they come back or not.
Let's wait and see who's coming back before making these type of projections. Plus you're not taking into account potential injuries. UM has a lot of very good players, but so do a lot of other teams.
Let's enjoy what we have right know and spectulate on the future after March Madness and the NBA draft deadline.