Michigan is back on track, but not good enough to go undefeated (yet)
I understand it's probably too soon for everyone to be done grieving and think rationally, but this loss was not unexpected and does not suddenly change what is likely to be our best season since 2006.
We are 6-1. Despite undergoing a coaching change and new schemes on both sides of the ball, we beat ND for the third straight year and for the fifth time in six years. We also avoided getting tripped up by solid if not great WMU and SDSU teams and we won our first conference road game at night against a dangerous NW team. I still believe that NW will trip up one of the other top teams in the conference before this season is over. They do it every year.
Notwithstanding our unexpectedly strong 6-0 start, we were not going to go undefeated this year. Nearly all of our toughest games fall in the second half of our season and we were almost certain to lose some of those games. We lost our seventh game of the season and it just happened to be to Sparty for a fourth year in a row. So what? Prior to the start of the season, I wrote down my predictions and I had us going 8-4 and with a loss to MSU. FWIW, Vegas also had us as an underdog against MSU despite our undefeated start. MSU was 5-1 with their only loss being on the road to a very good ND team. Yes, this game hurts more than most because it is Sparty, but MSU is a very good team and the loss only counts as one in the record books. If we weren't good enough to go undefeated, we had to drop our first game to someone. It should be no surprise that it was in a road game to one of the better teams in the conference.
We have a bye next weekend and then a home game against Purdue, one of the weaker teams in the conference, after that. Assuming we win that game (which we should because we are the better team), we will be 7-1 going into the last four games of the season. All four teams are tough but beatable and two of those games will be in The Big House. If we can split those four games and win two, we will be 9-3 and will likely finish no worse than second in our division. If we can pull off three wins or if Sparty stumbles down the stretch, we still can even win our division and go to the BTCG. We also are on track to have a top five-ish ranked recruiting class with a heavy emphasis on the trenches and defense. Not bad for a transition year with a new coaching staff.
GO BLUE!!!
October 16th, 2011 at 1:08 PM ^
One of the reasons some of us are not thinking rationally is that there is some very legitimate concern about how we are going to beat several of the teams we will be facing that have decent defenses and which will put eight players in the box and dare us to pass.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:30 PM ^
But then which team(s) did you expect us to lose to? Would you feel better if we lost to a team with a crappy DL? Or did you expect us to go undefeated?
FWIW, ND has a good DL too and we won that game, so technically we are at worst 1-1 against teams with good DLs. Also, I would argue that MSU has the best DL in the conference and possibly one of the best in the country. Statistically, none of the DLs we will be facing in our last five games are as good (and Nebraska just lost its best DL player for the season).
October 16th, 2011 at 1:04 PM ^
October 16th, 2011 at 1:05 PM ^
Undefeated yesterday at 3:30. Thanks for the "insight."
October 16th, 2011 at 1:07 PM ^
sorry, double post.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:14 PM ^
Moved.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:06 PM ^
Absolutely agree. There's always over-reaction after every loss. I've been on this board for three years, and every loss feels the same to me in terms of the reactions. If this had been the Purdue game, we would be seeing the same amount of hysteria and hand-wringing. But, yes, I actually feel ok today because I think we're in better, more capable coaching hands this year.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:14 PM ^
What if we had lost to WMU in the opener? Or to SDSU? Or to an awful Minny team? Lloyd Carr's last team went 9-4 and it was a very good team that underperformed. This team does not have the talent that team had but, so far, is performing at its limit or even above its ability. We should be happy and proud about that rather than whine because we are only 6-1.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:25 PM ^
October 16th, 2011 at 1:53 PM ^
You got that from the game? Yesterday I saw Michigan get outcoached in a game that we had enough talent on both sides of the ball to win easily. We didn't adjust at all on either side of the ball. The team definitely didn't play to their abilities yesterday because we could have and probably should have won that game. The offensive playcalling was horrendous and the defense couldn't get a push against the worst offensive line we have faced all year (yes, I think MSU's offensive line is worse than EMU). Forgive me for being skeptical of a coach who has walked the walk and said everything correctly to unite the fanbase but just got his ass handed to him against our rival.
October 16th, 2011 at 2:06 PM ^
I agree that the offensive playcalling was awful. It was too gimmicky from the start (just like the uniforms), but Hoke does not call the plays. Hopefully, Borges learned a lesson and will stick more to our core plays going forward rather than try to win by trick plays and changing QB's every other series. I expect that Hoke saw the same thing we did too and will have a conversation with Gorgeous Al. This team does not have the basics down well enough to layer on so many gimmicks for one game.
October 16th, 2011 at 2:28 PM ^
If we have learned anything from the last 3 years, it is that the head coach will get the blame if either side of the ball play poorly. I am not saying things can't be corrected, but this doesn't give me much hope for our playcalling the rest of the year. There were some easy, basic adjustments to help our offense out and not a single one of them was made. I still think this team is headed in the correct direction, but that game will not be on the coaching staff''s highlight reel....they definitely didn't put the kids in the correct position to win.
October 16th, 2011 at 2:25 PM ^
October 16th, 2011 at 1:06 PM ^
October 16th, 2011 at 1:29 PM ^
Most teams have problems against good DLs. That's why they are called "good" in the first place.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:17 PM ^
But this definitely doesn't warrant its own thread and this seems like the best place to put it. Does anyone know what happened on the kickoff to start the 2nd half? Was that planned? Or just a terrible kick?
October 16th, 2011 at 1:22 PM ^
It was supposed to be a squib kick because of the wind, but it was executed poorly (per Hoke in the post game presser).
October 16th, 2011 at 1:23 PM ^
Probably trying to squib t deeper but he hit one of the up-men on accident
October 16th, 2011 at 1:22 PM ^
did you seriously say if not great WMU or SDSU teams??????????
October 16th, 2011 at 1:23 PM ^
In your head you can substitute "albeit not great".
October 16th, 2011 at 1:35 PM ^
we will likely beat purdue and Iowa. The last three will be tough.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:38 PM ^
yea, but I'd rather lose to Minnesota than Msu.
October 16th, 2011 at 2:48 PM ^
I wouldn't.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:57 PM ^
Agree with the sentiment. MSU was favored in this one, and we were super close to tying with 6 minutes left in the game, despite many mistakes and a well below-average game for Denard. Every team (except maybe the top 10 nationally) has their flaws, and we have plenty of strengths to compete with anyone outside the top 10. MSU may be the best team we play all year (unless we make it to the BTCG against Wiscy), and they probably have the best defense and QB (Kork Coupons, HALOL) of any teams we have left to play. And this was our first game on the road against a very hostile crowd. This game felt nothing like the clobbering at the hands of the other MSU or many other games against decent competition last year.
We have a lot to learn from this game and have our work cut out for us. Much like the early losses in Bo's first year, this may be a learning/teaching moment for us and give us the motivation and fire needed to step up our game through the rest of the year.
How much of Denard's problems yesterday were due to poor accuracy/hitting his ceiling as a QB vs. wind and no time to set/throw vs. poor playcalling I can't say for sure. I also see the pros/cons to both sides of the Start Devin at QB argument. Still, I feel confident going forward with either of them. Denard has shown at times that he can throw an accurate bullet and even throw with some touch, and I have faith in our staff to figure it out and give us a good chance to win. Anything can happen on any given Saturday, and based on how dominant we've looked during every game except for the last one, I still see a worst case scenario of 9-3, which ain't too shabby considering what we've been through in recent years.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:42 PM ^
IOWA and ILLINOIS on the road are the KEY to the rest of the season..I Believe we can beat Neb and OSU at HOME if we are 9-1 or 8-2 at that point with alot riding on the games..
11-1 is not out of the question if the breaks go our way
October 16th, 2011 at 1:55 PM ^
11-1 is borderline unrealistic and that is at the heart of my post. We need to have realistic expectations for this team. Could we go 11-1? Yeah, it's possible, but it's not likely and we shouldn't judge this team against that standard. We do not have the talent on either side of the ball that an 11-1 team in an AQ conference should have. If we went 11-1, it would be the same as MSU going 11-1 last year. They were lucky against ND and NW and never should have beaten Wisconsin. And they had a relatively easy schedule. They were not an 11-1 quality team and were exposed by Bama in their bowl game.
IMO, 9-3 is realistic and should be considered a successful season. Anything less would be a disappointment given our strong start, but 9-3 is about right. Anything above 9-3 and we should be ecstatic.
October 16th, 2011 at 1:54 PM ^
We are fine. Anyone with a rational bone in his body knew we would not be a great team, and we are obviously not (neither is FMSU, by the way.... can you imagine what 'Bama or LSU would have done to us yesterday?).
<br>What we are is IMPROVED. Our defensive schemes make sense and thank God for it. Our offense is limited due to the lack of an above average running back and a QB who can throw accurately on a consistent basis.
<br>We are improved in effort, scheme, team unity and very importantly, on the recruiting trail. We should all be thankful for it and should be excited about the future. Bumps in the road should be expected. So should eventual success.
October 16th, 2011 at 2:10 PM ^
...for the most part. The defense is clearly headed in the right direction and has already improved from cover-your-eyes awful last year to mediocre this year. The offense seemed to be making some progress but took a step back yesterday.
October 16th, 2011 at 2:42 PM ^
We are better this year simply by "addition by subtraction." Hoke and Co. has ensure quick bowl eligibility and a team that won't fade down the stretch. I predicted this team would win 8-9 games; after watching them, I changed it to 9-10 games. I am confident they will will at least 9 games. Our coaching staff has been great with adjustments (yesterday notwithstanding), and will get the team to bounce back. I think Hoke is laying the foundation for domination over the next few years, which is why lil brother's win yesterday doesn't bother me (we still have to remember, they measure themselves against us, not the other way around). We, as fans, just have to get through this season---whether its 8, 9, or 10 wins, and know that we will be back next year.
October 16th, 2011 at 2:49 PM ^
We lost our seventh game of the season and it just happened to be to Sparty for a fourth year in a row. So what?
This statement alone shows you don't get it.
October 16th, 2011 at 3:03 PM ^
I think he does "get it". Again, lil brother beating us is THEIR NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. The reason we are in the position is because the Rich Rod experiment failed. As long as we look at it from that perspective, it's easy to get it. It took lil brother 50 years to get 4 in a row against us!!! Prior to THEIR NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP run, we consistently dominated them. Not only does it make them look (and sound) pathetic now, but once we resume the destroying them, the will look (and sound) all the more pitiful. So let's them enjoy THEIR NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. In fact, let's make sure we say this to them often. Next year we have them at home, new qb, new receiving core, and many other major contributors. And it'll be back to 6, 7, 8 wins for lil brother. Don't fret my friend, they are still the "chumps of the state". Brighter Maize and Blue days are ahead.
October 16th, 2011 at 3:43 PM ^
Every game this year is part of the answer to "Where are we now?", especially with the staff in its first year here and another formation revolution on both sides of the ball. I'll take being 6-1 at this point, even if the loss is to MSU, since it would seem to me that, with the current personnel at various positions, 6-1 might actually be a performance above what most would have thought. We're already doing things we haven't seen a Michigan team do in literally years now, and this has been a breath of fresh air on some levels.
I would consider 9-3 a pretty good season for us right now regardless, and it is great that we're a mere 3-2 performance away from that.
October 16th, 2011 at 6:29 PM ^
These kids have been through a lot the last three years. The new coaches seem to be very good at reinforcing good teaching moments after every game. Hopefully with the bye, the team will regroup, heal up, work on their game plan and come out winning ready for Purdue.
GO BLUE!
October 16th, 2011 at 8:16 PM ^
...but it's going to be at least two years to get back to being a national title contender. Most likely it's going to take three or four to build the kind of talent and the depth behind it to compete at that level.
MSU, which does have a weak OL, did whatever they wanted on offense. The only way we could stop them is by them fumbling or us playing 46 defense on obvious run downs. Sparty owned us on both sides of the LOS.
And if ND had a DB who knew how to play a ball in the air, they blow us out.
Our OL can't create movement against a decent defensive front, and our backups are way behind the starters in talent and size...and there's little to no depth.
On the DL, Martin is great and Van Bergen is solid, but they're seniors. Roh is a nice player and improving, but he's got one year left. Not much help in the classes right behind them, either.
Don't get me wrong, I love our guys effort, enthusiasm, and dedication to Michigan. But realisticly, everyone should take Coach Hoke (and all the other coaches) at his word when he said we have a long way to go.
October 16th, 2011 at 9:16 PM ^
Let's not forget that next year's schedule isn't a cakewalk either.