blueblueblue

January 14th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^

If you know anything about college football, you will know that there are spring and fall camps. And if you know that, you will know that there are innumerable reports about injuries, performances, etc., coming from those camps. You may then know that those reports impact Vegas odds. Thus, Vegas odds on January 14th mean squat - that is limited to anyone who knows anything about college football. 

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Dr. Strangelove

January 14th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^

Vegas is pretty darn good at forecasting.

 

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2014/jan/07/florida-state-atop-vegas-odds-win-2015-college-foo/

From last year right after the title game:

 

Florida State — 5-to-2

Oregon — 5-to-1

Alabama — 5-to-1

Oklahoma — 12-to-1

Ohio State — 12-to-1

Auburn — 20-to-1

LSU — 20-to-1

UCLA — 20-to-1

Baylor — 20-to-1

Michigan State — 25-to-1

Wisconsin — 25-to-1

 

That's the top 11 and everybody that was 25-1 or less.

Results:

Florida State – playoff team final rank tied for 5th

Oregon — final team final rank 2nd

Alabama — playoff team final rank 4th

Oklahoma — Crapped the bed – final rank 35

Ohio State — National Champion

Auburn — Crapped the bed – final rank 22

LSU — Crapped the bed – final rank 31

UCLA — final rank 10th

Baylor — final rank tied for 7th

Michigan State — final rank tied for 5th

Wisconsin — final rank 13th

 

They got 7 of the final top ten right but missed badly on TCU, Georgia Tech and Georgia.

 

 

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WMUKirk

January 14th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^

You're so uniformed it's laughable. Spring camps, and fall camps do very little to change the odds. Injuries to QB's and RB's change odds, other positions don't. Vegas Odds on January 4th align almost perfectly with the first pre-season ranking, which almost always align well with the final rankings. You have a few teams that over achieve or under achieve but through and through the smartest sports people are in Vegas and they know.



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west2

January 14th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^

the 2012 Auburn Tigers went 3-9 and didn't win a single conference game going 0-8 playing in the SEC west.  Prior to the 2013 season they were 1000-1 odds to win the NC.  They went 12-2 overall and 7-1 in conference play winning the SEC and then falling 3 points short of overcoming those odds.  

In 1998 the St Louis Rams were 4-12.  In 1999 they were a 300-1 long shot to win the super bowl.  Led by an unheralded Curt Warner they did exactly that and amassed a 13-3 record in the process. 

In case you haven't noticed, something has changed in AA.  What somebody thinks in Vegas or says on some sports talk show has as much value as me telling you it's going to snow in October, it's somebodies opinion and you know what they say about opinions...

I know it's January in Michigan and it's depressing but next season will exceed expectation.

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WMUKirk

January 14th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

You had to go back 16 years to find an example of Vegas being horribly wrong. You know how often they've been right? Every other year in between haha. I think what they say matters much more than sports talk host, or coaches.



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west2

January 14th, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^

isn't that long ago unless you are 2 years old.  If Vegas odds are so dang accurate I suggest you bet the farm on whatever team Vegas has favored.  Good luck!

It defies logic to believe that somebody in Vegas is that accurate otherwise why play the games.  How about this for a recent example, look at the buckeyes, how improbable were their victories.  Nobody and I mean nobody picked osu over bama.  Again very few picked osu to beat Oregon but no odds maker predicted that osu would completely dominate that game.  How did that happen, how could the oddsmakers be so wrong?  They underestimated the impact of great coaching.  My point exactly.  

 

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WMUKirk

January 14th, 2015 at 1:47 PM ^

Well, in 2012 they didn't win so Vegas wasn't wrong. FSU was a favorite pre-season and won. And also, more money was bet on OSU +4.5 than on Oregon. The lines in Vegas aren't about favorites it's about getting equal betting. More money was on OSU +5.5, while more individual bets was on Oregon -5.5. This lets you know the informed bet on OSU, and the uniformed (public), picked Oregon. And I've already explained betting on a pre-season favorite isn't smart because you're getting 2% return on a bet, when you can bet on every single game with the ML and win much more. Betting on a team with 5-1 odds pre-season is essentially a 13 team parlay with no increasing return.



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WMUKirk

January 14th, 2015 at 1:50 PM ^

Billions upon billions are bet on college football, legally and illegally. I don't think they underestimate coaching. You have analysts, former college players, former college coaches, statisticians, ESPN analyst, and stock brokers who make their money betting. We're not talking about 5-6 people in a room looking at rosters saying "hey these guys might be good.", you have people who have to make their livelihood betting.



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west2

January 14th, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^

must be a billionaire then.  FSU was not the preseason favorite last year.  Also money bet for also know as the betting line is a measure of popular opinion-OSU fans wanting to bet on their team not neccesarily odds makers technical opinion of who is likely to win. All the oddsmakers had OSU as the underdog and heavy underdog to bama.  Some confusion there about what odds and betting line mean. Sorry for the slow reply, I am working too!  

Anyway suffice to say I am optimistic about Michigan's new coaching staff and oupcoming season and I agree they probably won't win the NC but I believe we will see some very competitive and entertaining games this year. Go Blue!

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WMUKirk

January 14th, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^

They were A preseason favorite not the favorite. And no I am not a billionaire, but I went to college as a Data Science major and have been gambling to pay my bills for a few years. The oddsmakers in games do not pick favorites, they pick lines to get equal action on games. The public believed Bama to be superior to Ohio State, but the money ended up being on Ohio State to close. You know that by the opening line of -9.5 closing to a line of -6.5. That the public overwhelmingly bet on Ohio State to cover. Have. A great day.



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