Michigan 4th choice in Vegas for NC
This is actually pretty crazy to me:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/futures/
We're 10:1, behind only OSU, Baylor, and LSU. Man. I'm probably one of the least surprised Michigan fans by this year -- the team has talent and Harbaugh has turned things around quickly before. But I'm surprised. I was in Vegas before the season started and almost bet on us to win the national championship, but we were only 40:1 at the time. I guess I made a mistake!
October 12th, 2015 at 1:53 PM ^
a pessismistic set of odds eh?
October 12th, 2015 at 1:55 PM ^
Everyone needs to just pump the brakes. We still have to get through seven more games (just to get in the playoff), which includes MSU and OSU, which won't be easy.
October 12th, 2015 at 1:55 PM ^
Let's cool down here and focus on next week.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^
Well, I don't really mean that. The team needs to only think about MSU right now, but we can talk about future games; only future games that we know will happen. Talking about UM's being in the playoff right now is a little ridiculous. We're just now getting to the meat of our schedule. This will be the tough part. Thankfully we have both MSU and OSU in Ann Arbor, but they still won't be easy games like we have seen the last three weeks.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:48 PM ^
No one thought Northwestern would be easy. Personally, I think we beat MSU by a pretty healthy margin (unless they magically pull their best performance out of their asses, which is definitely possible). OSU will be a challenge but they haven't been playing all that great either, and Hoke came awfully close to beating them with struggling teams.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
God I hope you're right. If we beat the fuck out of MSU, I will get as wasted as I did at my wedding reception. That is the only time I have ever blacked out.
October 12th, 2015 at 1:59 PM ^
Your avatar is definitely not pumping the brakes!
Anyway, of course there is far to go, but this is a tangible indication of how impressive this team has been, and how impressed the smart people who bet on such things are. I mean, we have a loss and are ranked 12th or 14th. Compare us with:
Florida -- 30:1
MSU -- 20:1
TCU -- 16:1
Utah -- 15:1
Bama -- 12:1
This is just interesting from an academic perspective. This is a team that was 5-7 last year, unranked at the start of the year, and lost their opener. It's week 7. WTH. I doubt there is any historical comparison.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:24 PM ^
We're fans. We don't need to "slow down," nor do we need to "pump the brakes." Our enthusiasm, if anything, is great for the program. If I ever invite you to a pool party, I am dumping in some extra chlorine...
October 12th, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
We have been pumping breaks for how long??? To long if you ask me. I say take the break pads and throw them out!! The are run down anyways!
ENTHUSIASM UNKNOW TO MAN KIND it isnt just for the coach!!
October 12th, 2015 at 3:21 PM ^
Says the guy with your avatar...
October 12th, 2015 at 1:55 PM ^
Can I bet that LSU won't win a national championship?
October 12th, 2015 at 1:58 PM ^
yep, idc who your running back is, you're not gonna win a playoff without elite QB play. Last year the Heisman winner lost to the only QB playing hotter than the Heisman winner at the time. LSU annually chooses to not try and be good at the most important position on the field. They might win the SEC...maybe...but they aren't winning a playoff.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:12 PM ^
So I guess that means we have no shot?
October 12th, 2015 at 2:02 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 12th, 2015 at 6:57 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 2:06 PM ^
Vegas is basically saying we have a better chance to not lose another game over Bama. But Bama is likely a better team. If you put Bama, TCU ot maybe Clemson in the B1G, their odds are probably better than ours.
If we beat Sparty, then I will like our odds a whole lot more.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^
This is to win the playoff though, not just qualify. So the weakness of the B1G should only be a minor factor.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
I think what Vegas is really saying is: "MIchigan has a lot of passionate and wealthy fans that will bet on their team to win if we make it enticing enough. Even nominal betting amounts across that many people will make us a lot of money.....we should put them as the 4th most likely team to win".
That, or people are betting on us enough to push the line down from 40-1 to 10-1 odds.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:00 PM ^
It makes no sense...
1. We know Michigan fans will bet.
2. Let's entice them to bet more.
3. Lower the payout for them winning it all.
4. Profit???
The reverse would be true. If they wanted us Michigan suckers to bet, they'd give us 1,000:1 odds. THAT would entice people to bet for Michigan and lose all of their money. The opposite means they don't wnat people to bet on Michigan, because they think we are good.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^
10-1 is still a big payout...that line is meant to induce betting on Michigan, at least how I see it. However, they probably have gotten enough action on the team already and are trying to slow down the pace of the action.
October 12th, 2015 at 4:07 PM ^
MHW, you're not thinking of this in the context of a free market.
Book 1: 10-1 Michigan
Book 2: 15-1 Michigan
Obviously, Book 2 will get the Michigan money. Setting Michigan at 10-1 is a signal from the sportsbooks that they do not want to take any more money on Michigan. They want the money instead to go on other teams.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:37 PM ^
I agree with Alabama since they are Michigan on steroids, but disagree on TCU. Minnesota is probably the 4th best team in the weak West and held TCU (pre-injuries) to by far their lowest offensive output this season and despite its anemic offense still had the oppurtunity to win the the game on its final drive. Clemson? Maybe, it could go either way.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^
Ok cool. You just convinced me to book my flight to Glendale.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
Strictly speaking, this isn't Vegas declaring us the fourth most likely team to win the NC.
It is just that they are less willing to pay out substantially on that bet than they used to be because enough people are betting on Michigan to win the NC that it becomes ecoomically dangerous for Vegas to put a rich payout on that bet, because should Michigan win, it would be too costly.
Remember, Vegas just wants everyone to bet equally so that winners and losers cancel each other out and Vegas makes its money by taking a percent of the bet itself, won or lost. That's what's safest for them.
Michigan, with its HUGE support base, is going to be more susceptible to a little "irrational exuberance" than most other programs. So when things are going well, people get more happy, a little TOO happy, and they bet a little bit TOO much. And Vegas has to adjust to protect itself economically, so it drops the odds. Not from any direct football info, but just bet volume.
That said, people get exuberant and bet on a team when there is good football info out there. It's just that they tend to overvalue that info, and hence make an overvalued bet, when it's a team to which they have emotioinal ties. Like our beloved Wolverines.
But you all mostly knew this already.
October 12th, 2015 at 2:38 PM ^
Now my enthusiasm has dropped to a level previously known to mankind.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
There are differences. They change the championship odds based on performance. They're not waiting while we're shellacking Northwestern to see how much money comes in on us. They'll move the line proactively. Their profit margin on these bets is larger than on games, so they've got more leeway to set odds that will attract money.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
This again! This is not true. Period. If big fanbases determined point spreads like this simplistic view implies then anyone could just bet against the biggest fanbases and invariably get inflated odds. Winning would be so simple, so why dont those who continue to post this myth take advantage of it and bet against the big fanbases.This is laughable. Sure lines get tweaked some here and there but it is within a narrow range, otherwise the sharps would come in late and make a killing on skewed lines. Think about it before you post this garbage.
Remember it is the sharps that actually bet the most volume on most games so fanbases are not the primary driver of the line.
Furthermore, even if the largest fanbases were the primary driver of lines (they are not), people do not just bet with their heart. Im pretty sure when it comes to finances people are not just going to be stupid and throw away their money based on homerism.
And lastly, for every homer that would bet with his heart, there is a rival fan that would do likewise in the opposite direction.
October 12th, 2015 at 6:58 PM ^
Okay.
I feel that casino employees often don't take X's and O's into account when creating odds and that that is not something many people realize.
I also sincerely feel that casino employees, when dealing with teams such as Notre Dame, Texas, Alabama, and others, teams that will be bet simply because who they are, are treated differently by oddsmakers simply because they are guaranteed to take action regardless of who, where, and when they play.
I sincerely feel this way because this is exactly what they say they do.
Relevant quote:
October 12th, 2015 at 2:30 PM ^
we will keep improving and becoming an even better team going forward, that's my bet, all other things will work themselves out, I like what I'm seeing so far, this is fun!
October 12th, 2015 at 2:34 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 2:43 PM ^
For what it's worth, Pat Forde has UM at n°3 in his latest Fab Four over at Yahoo Sports, playing n°2 Florida in one of the playoff games.
While I agree with most here, that it's one week at a time, consider this more for it's value as PR with the national media and future recruits.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/forde-s-fab-four--where-a-new-big-ten-team…
October 12th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
I would take that Alabama 12/1 any day. Their O is weak but they are littered with pro players as usual.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:26 PM ^
This feels a bit out of hand. After we meat MSU I'll feel more confident, but Sparty feeds off this sort of thing.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
It bothers me that many fans are looking past Penn State, Minny, Indiana and yes even Rutgers......... On any given Saturday even a bad team can spoil your season. Let's be excited one game at a time and hope for a great run.
I have family who are State fans and Alumni and truth be told they are the most obnoxious fan base (especially the last few years). There are a great many MIchigan fans starting to sound just like them.
Let's enjoy the best football we've seen in a long time and run with it.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 6:55 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
I can't tell you how many of Bo's great teams would have that WTF! loss (Purdue 1976, Minnesota 1977 & 1986, Wisconsin 1981)
October 12th, 2015 at 3:47 PM ^
Have Michigan in the playoff.
October 12th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 7:16 PM ^
I got Michigan to win the B1G at 16:1 before the season started. I also got Michigan to win the NC at 150:1, one week before the BYU shutout and the odds plummeted to 50:1. Now I think they're at 22:1 to win the NC.