chance of bowl: 13.6%
Michigan a 3 Seed in Current Bracketology
in the sweet 16....I like our chances of an upset there
If not, a match-up against Fisher would be entertaining.
God, I would love another shot at Duke.
Not gonna lie it's a weird feeling to see Michigan as a 3 seed.
Let's hope our BTT performance solidifies (perhaps improves?) that standing.
But the higher the better when it comes to tournament matchups. Think they will end up as a 5 seed
They're probably going to be a 3 on the Matrix after this weekend's games as well. If they falter down the stretch they might slide to a 5, but the win over OSU combined with losses from Baylor, UNLV, Indiana and San Diego State should have them on the 3 line right now.
They'd probably have to lose a regular season game and lose in the B1G quarters. If you look at the 4 seeds, it's hard to make too many arguments for them over Michigan. Let's look at each one:
Florida has only two wins against the RPI top 25 (Michigan has 5, two of which are against the top 10), and two losses outside the RPI top 100 (Michigan has one: Iowa, who also beat Indiana and Wisconsin). Michigan is 5-4 against the top 25 and 2-3 against the top 10, while Florida is 2-3 in the top 25 and 0-3 against the top 10.
Florida State is actually 2-1 against the RPI top 10, with an impressive road win at Duke. However, they have an atrocious loss at RPI #220 Boston College, as well as a bad loss at Clemson. That's two losses worse than Michigan's worst loss. They are also only 4-4 against the top 50; Michigan is 7-5.
Wisconsin is up next. They, of course, lost to Michigan pretty badly, and also lost to Iowa, except their loss was at home. Their only two top-25 wins (UNLV and Indiana) suffered bad losses over the weekend. They are only 2-6 against the top 25 to Michigan's 5-4. I think the only reason they're a 4 and not a 5 is the Indiana loss to Iowa.
Finally, Louisville. No RPI top 20 wins (0-4), 6-5 against the top 50. Also with one loss outside the top 100 (at Providence). Basically, the same profile as Michigan, except Michigan has better top-end wins.
If Michigan goes 3-1 down the stretch, Louisville probably jumps them going into the conference tournaments, as well as Florida if they can knock off Kentucky. It's hard to see the other two (especially Wisconsin) jumping Michigan.
With that bracket I like our chances for an Elite 8 berth. We're playing better than we did in November so I really think we could pull off the upset of Duke
That would be a great draw. We keep popping up next to Drexel. They seem like a decent team but should be our easiest opening game if it came to pass.
If we go undefeated for regular season, our toughest test being @Northwestern, and make a run in the BTT I could see us getting a two seed if a couple teams sustain another loss or two. Don't forget, MSU or OSU are garunteed another loss before the season ends.
Does performance in the BTT affect overall W/L?
Yes. Last year we were 19-12 in the regular season and 20-13 after the BTT.
lose more games. About 3 weeks from now is when it counts.
Really, sparty a 1 seed?! What kind of drugs is lunardi using? They have 5 losses and in no way deserve a 1 seed.
Who would you put ahead of them? Ohio State doesn't deserve a 1 right now and it seems likely that a Big Ten team will have a 1 seed, so Michigan State makes sense. Its not like any of the 2 seeds have a much better case at the moment.
Honestly, if we win out in the regualar season and have a decent B1G tourney showing, I think we deserve the 1 seed over sparty.
Well, sure, you can say that if Michigan wins out, including the BTT (or maybe a BTT finals loss), they could be in contention for a 1 seed. But looking at the teams RIGHT NOW, msu is certainly deserving of a 1 seed. They've won their last 5 games, including Wisconsing, Michigan and AT osu. Those are some impressive pelts, and they're really clicking right now. Don't let your bias get in the way of objectivity.
You're being an irrational homer. They've played 10 games against RPI top 25 teams, and gone 7-3 in those games. We've played 9 RPI top 25 and gone 5-4. Their worst losses are @NW and @Illinois (this loss looks increasingly worse, although MSU did lose to Illinois before they gave up); our worst losses are @Iowa, @Arkansas, and Virginia. Unless they crap their pants down the stretch here, we just don't deserve to be ranked ahead of them.
Those are two really really bad losses. They also got blown out by nc and dook. I just don't think that lil bro is as good as the media is making them. All they have is draymon green, he is pretty much the whole team. I hope we get them in the B1G tourney and kill them.
Losing @ NU this year is not a "really bad loss." They're legitimately an above average team. Right now they're RPI 43 and would be higher had they pulled out a number of close games that they were leading or tied in the last 2 minutes (losses @ IU, at home to Illinois, and @ UM). I kind of expect Northwestern to beat us tomorrow.
MSU lost at Illinois before their collapse, which has been a very weird situation. Beat then #3 OSU and then just completely fall apart. And they're still the only team to win on Ohio's court this year.
Our losses at Iowa and Arkansas are still worse than either of those, and I wouldn't even call either of those really bad. This year in the Big Ten, only losses at Penn State or at Nebraska can be considered really bad.;
That's not quite true about MSU-Illinois. Illinois had lost three straight when they played. Somehow, that's Illinois's only win in the last month.
Oh, that's right. That was that 42-41 monstrosity, right? I think my brain erased my memory of seeing that second half as a defense mechanism.
Exactly right wrt to the level of losses. I hate that we're arguing against UM, but Campbell, get with reality, man. MSU got blown out by Duke and NC? They played Duke closer than we did, and lost by 12 to NC; I wouldn't call that a blowout.
Our loss to Virginia (#34 RPI) and MSU's loss to Northwestern (#41) are comparable, as are their loss to Illinois (#68) and ours to Arkansas (#83), though 15 spots is significant. Losing to Iowa (#134) really hurts us.
Anyway, all that to say, MSU is deservedly ranked ahead of us, and as long as they don't totally drop off in the last couple weeks, they'll get a higher tourney seed than us (definitely no lower than a 2 seed).
I don't love that first round matchup, Drexel is a very good Mid-Major team and the favorite to win the CAA. They are also on a 16 game winning streak right now and will probably finish as an 10 or 11 seed.
ND may be one of the hottest teams the second half of the season. I'm not saying they are great or that Michigan wouldn't beat them, but they would be by far the toughest 6 seed and probably tougher than any of the 5 seeds.
Agreed. And Long Beach State is no slouch, either. They could be a Cinderalla story team this year.
Um, we have to play someone.
Man up. It's the NCAA's, they all have some kind ot merit or they wouldn't be in it.
We currently have MSU and Ohio ahead of us...if we keep winning and one of those teams stumbles. We could find ourselves on that 2 line...likely as the last 2 seed meaning we'd be playing out west.
Personally, at this point it's all about matchups. I want NO part of Kentucky, Syracuse or North Carolina. If we can avoid those 3 teams, I like our chances to make some SERIOUS noise in the dance.
I'd rather be a two seed but we sure as heck will take a 3 and avoid some of the big dogs until the sweet 16. With the way this team is playing right now, I like their chances against almost anyone. Not saying that they could (or would) beat anyone right now, just saying that I think they can compete with anyone in the country.
It isnt an easy road for sure, but we may avoid some of the harder matchups if things play out right. We could make a serious run deep here!
Excuse my ignorance, but would this mean our first game would be played in Nashville?
Also, what do the cities next to division (e.g. East (Boston)) mean?
That is the site of the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.
That sh*t cray.
I'm too young to remember the Fab Five, so my dominant memory of Michigan bball is the Tommy Amaker Era. You can imagine how a 3 seed makes me feel.
The Fab Five Era was some of the greatest stuff in Michigan sports history...
It wasn't Linsanity, but it was definitely a sports phenomenon.
I still get misty eyed when Webber calls that timeout. The conversation of pure anger and 100% sorrow for someone who played so hard and wanted it so bad.
If you haven't seen it...do yourself a favor young buck - brush up on your history: http://www.amazon.com/ESPN-Films-Five-Jason-Hehir/dp/B004RP9ITS/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1329761429&sr=8-1
The Fab Five was bigger than "Linsanity." They were a huge cultural phenomenon. Schools all over the country reordered their uniforms to get baggier shorts to copy them, for starters. And they were controversial (and still are, even now), whereas Lin is basically your standard "underdog that makes good" story that happens to somebody every year. Controversy sells.
But the Fab Five wasn't our entire basketball history. We won the national title two years before they arrived. We've been a very good basketball program for most of our history. Michigan and UCLA were the only two schools to reach the national title game in the 1960s, '70s, '80s and '90s.
This going to make my bracket so much easier. Being a homer and picking Michigan to win 2 or 3 games in past years has been detrimental to my chances in the pool.
Now it won't look like such a home bracket.
I don't put them in a pool if I'm doing one, but on ESPN I always do one where teams I like go all the way and teams I hate are out in the first round, then an opposite one as well.
Sadly, Ohio, WVU, ND or Sparty have failed to lose in a highly favored first-round game, but that seems balanced by the fact that my "Worst March Ever" bracket ends up sucking as well.
Hence the need for two brackets: one homer and one actual.
The best part about the 3-seed is the improved location protection. The last three 4 seeds are getting sent to Portland and Albuquerque due to the lack of decent west coast teams. There are a bunch of midwestern-ish sites (Pittsburgh, Columbus, Louisville, and Nashville are within 8 hours or so), but higher seeds get higher priority. Syracuse will go to Pittsburgh, Kentucky to Louisville, Missouri and Kansas to Omaha, UNC and Duke to Greensboro (I feel like Greensboro hosts every year). OSU can't stay in Columbus, so they'll go to Louisville or Pittsburgh, and MSU will go to Columbus. Baylor, as a 3 or 4 seed, will end up in Albuquerque. That leaves one spot in Pittsburgh or Louisville, one in Columbus, and the two Nashville spots, for teams like Michigan, Georgetown, Marquette, Florida, FSU, Wisconsin, and Louisville. I would love for Michigan to end up in Columbus or Pittsburgh, but they'll be fighting an uphill battle against Marquette and Georgetown for those spots. Failing that, Nashville has a better chance of drawing Michigan supporters than Portland, I think. So every game counts, because there's a big difference between being the best #4 seed and the worst.
Just got my opening weekend tickets for Nashville too...
Fingers crossed we win the B1G Championship, but if not, other fingers crossed to keep them in Nashville...
Ranked #13 in the Coaches poll. So getting a 3 seed seems pretty fair right now. Win out and play well in the BTT and who knows what will happen.
The way I see it is I see Michigan going 3-1 to close out there regular season and going to semi-finals. I believe this puts them at a 4 seed but maybe a 3 seed if external factors go well.
It's hard to see how UM would get a 3 unless they win out and make the tourney semis. Presuming the loss would be at Northwestern, UM wouldn't pick up any meaningful wins, as Purdue is now outside RPI top 50 and figure to continue falling as long as those suspensions last, and the loss would be to either OSU or MSU in the tourney semis. We probably can get a 3 with a loss at Northwestern and a run to the tourney finals, as long as that included a win over OSU/MSU.
Win out, win tourney likely nets a 2 seed, which is, IMO our ceiling. Floor is probably a six, but that would mean gacking it up against PSU and an early tournament exit.
We won our National Championship in '89 from a 3 seed.
Our days of tense Bubble watching are very over.
Remember Beleien's extension circa Martin's exit a couple years back that had a lot of people scratching their heads? Well, itch scratched... Don't know what the ceiling is in terms of dominating athleticism needed for final four runs an consistent conference contention, but I'll sure take where we're headed over where we were.
I have been a Belein critic from the start, butt he has shown that they can compete, tactically and athletically with ANYONE. Very deserving of any praise, and hopefully an M LIFER. Maybe we have our BO of basketball!!
Not bad but believe it or not, I think this team still has a strong shot at a 2 seed. Who would of thought that at the beginning of the season? I would have just been happy with a 4 or 5 seed and a making it to the sweet 16 but now im greedy. GO BLUE!!
If we win the big ten tourney we will def. be a 2 seed. That would be awsome if we got a 2 seed but I would be happy with a 3 seed now. That is a tricky first round matchup and would hate facing Drexel. They absolutely crushed Cleveland State @ there place this weekend and have been playing really well. I know this is all subject to change. The second round matchup would be brutal as well facing ND OR LBSU. ND is one of the hottest teams in the country and LBSU has played really well and Casper Ware is a very good guard.