Michigan -24...Would you lay the points?

I'm actually doing a monopoly money betting game with a few fellow Michigan fans. We can bet on the spread or the moneyline. The losers will have to collectively take out the winner to dinner at the end of the season.

We started with $1000. So far I'm doing fairly well (I'm up on the next closest by about $200).

This week though, I think I'm going to bet mostly on the ML and not the spread. Although I know we can put up points, I think RichRod will put Denard in a lot of the game and that'll keep the points lower since I'm expecting him to pass far more than against Western or ND.

Michigan often has a tough time meeting the spread against huge underdogs because we tend to put the backups in early. It's a close call. Assuming EMU goes over easy (which they didn't for Northwestern or Army), I think you're asking if Nick Sheridan and Vincent Smith can put up an extra touchdown or two. Hard to say.

I expect Tate to play most of the first half at least. I think this will be a WMU type game, with maybe a little more DRob or Sheridan. We put 24 up on them and they're better than Eastern. I guess it all depends on how much we score early. If it's 24-0 late in the second, Tate will probably be done. If it's 17-7, he might play into the third. I think we win by about that much. Hard to say, especially since are backup D isn't good (who knows how much PT they'll get), but I'd take the over. Although they did play NW tough. I still think they're one of the worst teams in FBS.

Just looked at the EMU statistics. Here is one that jumped out:

EMU has scored a total of 10 points in the first 3 quarters of the two games they have played while their opponents have scored 34!

EMU has put up 28 in the 4th quarters (garbage/desperation time?) but their opponents have also put up 20 in the 4th quarters.

My only concern -- RR will pull the first team and let the backups get much needed experience when it gets to be 30 points or so. EMU could score at some time and, oops, there goes the point spread. But, that would also mean a lot of Robinson and he could go bat crap crazy to keep the spread.

tough call...but Id lean towards covering

EMU is 7-21 ATS in non conference games this decade. They covered last week vs Northwestern, so by betting against the Eagles you are going with the percentages.

Then again, its an ultimate sandwich game a week after an emotional win over a bitter rival and next week's Big 10 opener. I hate laying chalk in sammy spots like that.

And consider this: I think there is a struggle within going on with the UM coaching staff on how to approach this game. There is a strong push to keep the petal to metal and the momentum going. But, some guys are dinged up and you could see 3-4 guys not suit up or suit up a la Minor in the opener. This is something the coaches are weighing right now. If they go the former, this sucker will be 55-0 like the 2005 game. If not, then the Eagles have enough parts to stick with UM in spots and hang around that number making it anyone's bet at the end.

Translation? Spend the $1,000 elsewhere. There are much better bets on the board.

I think they go up 28 or 35-0 at the half, and then EMU "wins" the second half against the back-ups by 14, for a margin of 14 or 21. I think the spread is very clever, but 24 and a half would be even more so.

Of course we are going to cover. What hasn't go right for us yet this season. I think we put up 50 plus points because we will have to shelve Forcier by haltime (he's good for 30 points) and then it with be the D-Rob show for the second half. I'm sure Shoe-Lace wants some attention too. (he's good for 20 plus points). I think we are looking at 51 to 14. Don't forget our hurry up offense get's a lot more plays in than me are used to.

Blow the wad on covering. I'm in that kind of mood about Michigan football right now.

The EMU coaches know a thing or two about Michigan upperclassmen, especially on defense. RR will want to get alot of players involved, to reward their practice habits, and give the banged-up guys a chance to recuperate. Unless DR rips off 3 or 4 long TDs, the difference will be under 24 pts. A big assumption on my part is that Northwestern is about as good as last year, and last week's result wasn't a fluke.

That said, I never bet on Michigan games; that would bring down maximum negative karma. Damn, I probably shouldn't have posted to this thread; Angry-Michigan-[position]-Hating Gods are gathering.

UM should be able to score at will and the defense will dominate EMU.

EMU does have a senior QB and RB, but they are learning a new scheme. Think Lloyd Ball, MAC style.

They want to pound the ball and maintain possession, but they don't have the OL yet to do that.

Defensively, they will attack UM aggresively as you would expect a RE defense to do. But again, they don't have the personnel to do so just yet.

EMU was blown out at home b an awful Army team, but did show some resolve by forcing NU to kick a game winning FG. EMU will play hard and may even make a play or two. But I see this one shaping up very similiarly to the 05' game.

Oh and Johnny Sears is one of EMU's starting corners.

My one caveat: UM's youth. UM will probably come out flat and if EMU gets a big play or two, they could hang for a quarter or so.

That English is one of the guys that 'other' people in the program wanted to be considered. RR knows that. He will take NO prisoners in this game and I see no let up. This is a storyline that the public isn't as privy to. Lay 'em.

In the post-game presser to the WMU game, RR suggested he took his foot off the gas in the second half. He said he wanted to see how well the team could "close out" a game by controlling the ball and running. He also hinted that he did not want to "show" everything in the first game. If Michigan wants to, I think they can cover the 24 points against EMU. But if they get way ahead early, it seems more likely that RR will do something similar to what he did in the WMU game and use the second half as an opportunity to work on some basic things and get more players experience.

If we kept our first team offense (including Tate or Denard) and our first team defense for 3.5 quarters then yes, we would cover. However, seeing as Sheridan will likely see some quality minutes on Saturday, I would lay down the points. Sheridan is the great equalizer.