Michigan #21 in BCS Standings
Beat Iowa first.
Pretty moot-point now, for reasons that have been beaten to death on this board.
WHY am I seeing everyone's avatar in Grey and Red?
Um...... maybe cause you've been DEAD for 66 years and you're a ghost?
Lost 3 in a row to them...pissing me off.
Oh...right. Damn you, Nebraska and your easy end of conference schedule!
Seriously though, 21 sounds fair at the moment, although the SEC taking spots numbers 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 is crazy.
Michigan needs to jump 7 spots for a potential BCS at large berth. It's not really a moot point. There's a very real possibility that we get to the top 14 if we can win out. Especially since the computers seem to love us and have us ranked 16th.
Can't you have at most 2 losses to get an at-large bearth though?
Top fourteen in the final BCS standings is the rule, with the only exceptions being any BCS conference champion is in, and any mid-major conference champion in the top sixteen is in as long as it's rated above a BCS conference champion.
Actually, you have to be in the top 14 and have 9 wins.
The issue then is more with the pick order and who qualifies. If ND finishes in the top eight, they get a spot along with the other autobids. Louisiana Tech gets an autobid if the BE champion (or possibly B1G champ at this point) finishes ranked sixteenth or below, and the SEC is all but assured two teams.
Assuming Oregon and Kansas State go to the title game, the Rose and Fiesta pick first, probably taking ND and SEC number two. After that, the pick order goes Fiesta then Sugar then Orange for the rest of the at-large spots, with at least one (possibly two if LT can make it in) already decided. If we're looking at teams near the top fourteen who would still be available, that's the ACC number two (FSU or Clemson), us, Stanford, Oklahoma (I doubt Texas gets picked over Oklahoma) and maybe USC.
I'd say if we're elegible and LT doesn't get an autobid, we'd have to be more attractive to the Fiesta than any of these other teams (Sugar would have to take M two years in a row, Orange gets the BE champ). That's possible, but if USC and Oklahoma are in the mix it's definitely not a given.
I don't see USC finishing in the top 14 fwiw. They still play UCLA, ND, and Oregon if they get to the PAC12 CG.
Oklahoma would still be a tough draw to beat out for the Fiesta committee. They'll be favored heavily in their final three games (WVU, OSU, TCU) and winning out would make them 10-2 compared to our 9-3, plus they're a fixture in the Fiesta Bowl (which I guess could hurt, but they'd be more of a sure thing I think).
Also, what I didn't mention above (maybe because I can't think why this would happen) is that this is predicated on the Rose getting to pick ND. If, for some reason, the SEC second team ends up in the Rose we won't get a rematch with ND in the desert, which leaves only the Sugar which we played in last year.
a couple other things to think about. If KState and Oregon are in the title game you gotta figure the Fiesta grabs ND. The Fiesta isn't going to want an ND-UM rematch and if Alabama wins the SEC, the Sugar probably isn't going to want a rematch either.
The last item is no one wants the Big East champ - they'll be the left team left. If KState and Oregon make the title game, the odds of a 9-3 UM getting an at-large aren't that good unless Georgia wins the SEC or the Fiesta for some reason passes on ND.
Fiesta isn't going to want ND Oklahoma either.
Seeing as Louis Tech almost lost to Texas State last weekend I don't see the voters moving them up if they can find any reason not to.
A couple of facts:
• There are 10 BCS spots
• Each conference is limited to two participants
The ESS-EEE-SEE currently occupies 6 of the top 14 spots. Moreover, ALL six can win out in the regular season. The only guaranteed ESS-EEE-SEE loss is in the championship game, and it's really unlikely that likely participants #4 Alabama or #5 Georgia would drop out of the top 14 with a loss. If the ESS-EEE-SEE hogs six spots and we make the Top 14 and Lousiana Tech doesn't bump us (Go Louisville, make the Top 14), then as strange as it sounds, I believe we're in.
As to moving up seven spots:
• PAC-10 (4 spots)
• Oregon is likely to hang losses on
• Oregon St
• South div winner (UCLA/USC)
• USC/UCLA play each other
• Stanford/UCLA play each other
• USC also plays ND
• Louisiana Tech(1 spot)
• LT (Sagarin #52 predictor, 73.50) finishes w/
• Utah St (8-2, #21 83.19)
• San Jose St (8-2, #32 78.47)
• tCFKA the "Big 12" (1 effective spot)
• Oklahoma (12 BCS) games left
• vs @24 Okla St
• Texas (12 BCS) games left
• vs TCU
• @ #1 KSU
• If they both stay ahead of us, only 1 can go
• ACC (the long shot, need 1 more spot)
• Florida St (10 BCS, 9-1) games left
• vs @#6 Florida
• Clemson (11 BCS, 9-1) games left
• vs NCSt
• vs #9 S. Carolina
the way you think. So you are saying we go to the Rose Bowl?????
Unless we win out and Nebraska loses, there's no chance.
But must BEAT OHIO!
plays Oregon this week. If Oregon beats Stanford, Stanford probably won't be Top 14 at the end of the year.
The teams in front of UM all have big games left. USC and UCLA play this weekend. The winner will probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. Texas has to go to Kansas St. Oregon St still has Oregon. Stanford still has Oregon and Lousiville and Rutgers still have to play each other.
While it's all predicated on UM winning out, if UM can win out they'll probably be right around the Top 14. Since a conference can only put 2 teams in the BCS and the SEC has 6 teams in the Top 14, it really limits the pool of at large teams the bowls will have to choose from.
If we take care of business with Iowa, and then beat Ohio, convincingly, at Ohio, along with the iminent losses to teams ranked ahead of us, I can almost guarantee we'd be right there in the thick of things for a BCS berth. Maybe we'll rematch Notre Dame!
As much as I would love it, there will be no rematch. ND throws a wrench into the mix because rematches against you or Oklahoma are highly unlikely.
With the SEC holding down the #4 to #9 spots I fear that if the current top three lose a game we will be forced to endure yet another SEC v SEC MNC game. Personally I'm holding out the most hope for Oregon to break up that party as I see ND losing to USC and I fear K State could lose to either Baylor or Texas if Klein goes down again.
Hell the way the BCS computers slather love on the teams from the SEC I could even see one of the one loss teams leapfroging two of the undefeateds following their Championship game.
There is no chance of an all SEC title game unless all three unbeatens lose.
Sure that could happen but I'm guessing it would require an injury to both Klein and Mariota. I don't see both those teams losing otherwise.
If Bama wins the SEC, and Oregon, K State, AND ND all lose, and the title game is Bama/Georgia...I just don't even know anymore...
the only way for an SEC team to get in is for all three to lose and for Bama to get win the SEC title game. I don't think that a 1 loss Georgia team gets in with a win over 3 ranked opponents.
Some of them still have tough games left. Georgia and Alabama will be playing in the SEC title game. South Carolina still has to play Clemson and Florida still has to play Florida St. I'd be interesting to see if a 2 loss SEC team gets in over a 1 loss non-SEC team.
I think this top 14 scenario is very interesting. All of those teams in the SEC and only 2 can go to a BCS game. By my math:
Obviously matchups don't mean anything:
K-state v. oregon
ND v. Nebraska
Louisville v. Florida State
Alabama v Oklahoma
LSU v Clemson
With the only other team available being Stanford (to replace Oklahoma or Clemson), but if they lose to Oregon, they will more than likely fall from the top 14.
My prediction is BEAT ohio, and back to the Sugar bowl vs. LSU!!!
Also if Oregon and K-state win out, 5 teams infront of us will pick up a loss in the last 3 weeks of the season!!
Again, BEAT ohio!!
And Iowa too!!!
Florida St also plays Florida and Clemson will play South Carolina. Unfortunately those two teams won't be able to beat each other in the ACCCG since they're in the same division.
Georgia would get a berth before LSU. They're ranked 5th currently, and only have one loss.
Alabama would be in the Sugar bowl, if they win the SEC championship, then the BCS would probably pick LSU or Florida (in that order) to play in another BCS game. Likely Fiesta.
As a fan, I'm still not too worried about rankings at this point. For the past several years I have been getting tired of seeing Michigan lose to MSU and Iowa. Last year, the Iowa loss was one where I thought Michigan was the better team but just not on that day. I hope the team steps up next week and shows Iowa that the last 3 years are not happening again for some time.
If we can't beat Iowa this year something is seriously wrong. Iowa has been getting steadily worse over the last few years, and this year their team is pretty bad. It'll be Senior Day and Denard's last game. If things go the way they should, we could put a beating on the Hawkeyes.
Guess who 4, 5, and 6 play this week. Western Carolina, Georgia Southern, and Jacksonville State, respectively. Talk about tough matchups for the SEC.
#8 TAMU plays Sam Houston State, #9 South Carolina plays Wofford, and #7 LSU plays the only non-cupcake (?) Ole Miss.
SEC always has baby seals late in the season. Such bullshit.
In the BCS era, that is actually vey smart scheduling. You can always recover from an early loss, but a loss late in the season is more likely to knock you out of BCS at-large contention.
The transition to a true playoff might lessen the impact of the "early loss better than late loss" model somewhat.
Computers really like Michigan. They have us as #16, while the human polls peg us at 23 and 24.
Know who the computers HATE???
FLORIDA STATE! Sagarin has them ranked 34th!!! That is just brutal!
I hate FSU as much as anybody, but they should not be ranked behind 3 two-loss SEC teams.
Which makes sense. Our 3 losses are to Bama (#4) basically on the road but a neutral night game, to ND (#3) on the road at night and to Nebraska (#14) on the road at night with our QB down and out. Weve lost 3 games to 3 of the top 15 teams in the country at night on the road.
What is odd, though, is that the computer "love" is a recent thing. Earlier in the season, the computers were ranking UM lower than the human polls. There was a week where UM was ranked in both human polls (Harris and Coaches) but not in the Top 25 BCS standings due to crappy computer rankings.
Washington is 6-4, gets 8 combined votes from the AP and Coaches poll, but makes it into the top 25 in the BCS poll...
Washington has wins over Stanford and Oregon State. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have only beaten West Virginia.
They do have quality wins/losses, but still. They're barely over .500. I guess I'd rather see them up there than a shitty SEC team.
They're the only team to have played 4 top ten teams
If this is a possibility by the time the SEC title game rolls around we would be Georgia fans. The Sugar wouldn't have any interest in us if Alabama is there. I think OK will lose one of there last 3 games which would help us out.
in the top 9.
C'mon man. This conferennce has done NOTHING outside of itself to deserve these kinds of rankings.
Non-conference opponents of the SEC 'elite'
East Carolina, UAB, La Tech, SMU, So Carolina St., No. Texas, Towson, Idaho, Washington, Bowling Green, La-Lafayette, Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Western Kentucky
That's right folks the best non-conference opponent anyone of these 6 teams has played is Michigan, the next best probably 6-4 Washington
Still to be played: Wofford, Clemson, Sam Houston State, Jacksonville State, Florida State, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, Western Carolina
I totally agree. The SEC has some pretty good teams but they're not deserving of 6 spots in the top 10. Alabama showed they're very vulnerable and honestly top to bottom they're no better than any other conference in America.
Michigan still has a chance to sneak in. Teams ahead:
- 20 Louisiana Tech: M should jump if they win out.
- 19 Louisville: Would jump when/if L-ville loses @ Rutgers
- 18 USC: Would jump if they lose to ND or UCLA
- 17 UCLA: Would jump if they lose to USC or Stanford
- 16 Oregon State: Could jump when they lose to Oregon
- 15 Texas: Could jump if they lose to KSU
- 14 Nebraska: If they get upset the standigs won't matter, but they could be jumped with a loss in the B10CG
- 13 Stanford: could be jumped if they lose to Oregon or UCLA
- 12 Oaklahoma: Still has WVU, Ok St and TCU, but they may need multiple losses to fall far enough
- 11 Clemson: Still has Nc St and S Carolina, probably need to lose both
- 10 FSU: Still has Florida and Maryland, probably need to lose both
Also, if UCLA or USC lose the Pac10CG they could fall far enough.
All would be moot if M doesn't win out and there is no garuntee they would be picked, even if they sneak in to the top 14.
Assuming Nebraska makes the title game, the best scenario is Wisky loses to OSU but beats the huskers in the title game. That scenario eliminates either Nebraska or Wisky from being ahead of UM.
Desmond Howard's number! A good sign for the rest of the year.
Let's move up to Denard's number next week, and the Wisterts' after that.
The scenario is especially plausible when you think about the magnitude of the OSU game and how a potential victory will help in the human polls. It will be a game with huge exposure - gameday could quite possibly be in town, in a matchup with an undefeated team and another (technically) still in the hunt for a Rose Bowl. A win on the road in that situation would send a massive message to the voters.
That's not even considering the clusterfuck of SEC teams at the top. SEC season is mostly over, with a few cupcake games to be played. We should be big Florida fans vs. FSU and big South Carolina fans vs. Clemson.
This is about to be berry berry interesting.
Michigan is likely going to be out of the hunt for the Rose Bowl by the time the Ohio kickoff rolls around. Nebraska plays at Iowa on the Friday after Thanksgiving. If memory serves, fifteen years ago, Nebraska had to rally to beat Colorado on the Friday after Thanksgiving to remain unbeaten.
A quick survey of the last five weeks of BCS ranks shows that 18 teams have been in the rankings all five weeks this season at some position, which is rather interesting, I think. Those teams are - Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Kansas State, Louisville, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, South Carolina, Stanford, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC. By conference (or not, in one case), that is six SEC teams, four Pac-12 teams, four Big XII teams, two ACC teams, one Big East team and one Independent.
An outside [way outside] shot at a BCS at-large birth if we win over Iowa and OSU. Computers rank us at #16 (likely because our only losses are to 'Bama, Notre Dame, and Nebraska]. A couple things would have to fall our way, but it is possible.
That said, it looks like we will finish the season 8-4/9-3 with a trip to either the Outback or Capital One bowl (depending on whether or not we beat OSU). Nebraska shouldn't lose to Minny or Iowa, but Iowa under Ferentz does have a knack for pulling out stunner November games at Kinnick *takes moment of thanks for the game being in Ann Arbor*, and unfortunately that locks us out of the BTCG.