1 game at a time. I know this isn't your prediciton, I'm just saying.
Michigan 2009: 10-2
It's not like I have Forcier winning the Ray Guy award. I do have him on the watch list, but it would be silly to pick him this early to win.
brians UFR brought my hopes down to earth a little. hopefully he's just wrong but it's going to be hard to win 10 games if the defense continues to play as questionably as they did saturday.
i'll still stick with m preseason prediction of 8-4
There are five games on the schedule UM most definitely should win (I still put Purdue in there). We have just snuck one out that nobody thought we would.
Get me to 4-0, going to Spartyville healthy, and then we can dance about, upping our projected win total. We beat them (by most accounts an assumed loss before the ND game and their CMU prolapse)---and I will be suffering from some serious priapism.
The ND game was just their second game of the season as well. Yet their offense shredded us. As the season wears on, the other teams we face are going to improve; our defense is on alert and hopefully they can respond.
i agree except you say it was just ND's second game like they were also playing a true freshman. clausen is a 3rd year starter and he has two approximately 5* wideouts to throw to. and the ND o-line appears to have finally decided to become something other than a sack-allowing disaster. their offense should continue to be pretty awesome.
i doubt we'll look sieve-like after claussen throws for 300+ yds (maybe 400+ yds?) and 3+ tds against a few opponents this season
I also had 8-4 with a possible 9-3, but after the past two games the question is what teams on our remaining schedule can keep pace with our offense? Certainly not Sparty. They put up only 27 on CMU. Iowa? Nope. Indiana? Only if we switch to hoops. Maybe Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, PSU and OSU. And, of those five, who has a defense that is better than ours? Maybe Wisconsin, PSU and OSU. And Wisconsin and OSU have less than impressive passing offenses, which is our biggest weakness right now.
Football is as much about match-ups as it is about who has the best pure talent. We match up very well with most of our remaining opponents and I will be very surprised if we are not favored in all of our remaining games except possibly PSU and OSU.
you sound just like those very people we all rail against. they had one bad game. calm down. they STILL look like a better team and if they settle in on Cousins as qb by the time they host, which they will, it's not going to be the same MSU team. i know the "only way" to be a fan is blind optimism but take it down a notch.
Not sure I follow your criticism. Are you saying they are better than we are or just better than how they played last weekend? My basic point was that we would be favored in the game. This has nothing to do with blind optimism. I am pretty sure Vegas does not set odds based on my Maize & Blue tainted view of the world.
Although we put up huge numbers on offense.. I wouldn't count on Forcier playing like he played the first two games. If he stuck to the averages for those two games throughout the season, you'd be expecting him to throw for 30 TDs... that's 5 more than Henne and Grbac ever threw...
I think he might break the 4 TD single game record eventually though.. :) He could've done it vs Western had he not been benched for Coner and Sheridan.. Maybe RichRod did that on purpose.. (not wating a frosh to take that record in his very first start...)
Injuries will happen, not sure we have the depth to survive many on defense. If the offense has a bad day we can't expect the defense to shut people down. I still think our lack of size in the D Line and poor/average linebacker play will hurt us. I'm hopeful but but not delusional.
Maybe Iowa's first game was merely a hiccup? If Vegas feels that way, I could certainly see them being a slight favorite at home.
I would also say, a lot can happen. One slip-up could leave us as slight underdogs in any of our road games.
Iowa has a great defense, especially against a conventional running team, but I don't think their offense is as explosive as ours. And we do not have a conventional running team.
Iowa's offense is pretty balanced. Not as explosive as last year with the loss of a marquee RB, but solid. They average about 380 total offense, 240 in the air to 140 on the ground. Stanzi is an efficient QB at 40/68 for 440 yds and 5 TDs; 2 INTs. He's picked up where he left off last year and moves the ball around: 5 receivers have TDs. #86 Trey Stross has some big play potential at WR. #81 Tony Moeaki is a big piece of the offense at TE.
Stanzi is going to give up big chunks of yards with sacks tho: his rushing avg. on the young season is negative 5.1 per carry. Also evidenced, he's a liability to throw some picks if he's routinely hurried.
My keys to the Iowa game:
IOWA: Iowa's big front 4 have the talent to shut down Minor up the gut; get in Forcier's face. Take away the middle of the field and force the game into the young hands of Michigan's slot receivers. Play to contain. Oh, and home-field advantage: night-game in zombie nation? That's good for a turn-over
MICHIGAN: B. Graham and Co. have to be on Stanzi like white on rice. Eliminate Iowa's running game, two freshman currently carrying the rock for Iowa = let's try to force some fumbles. I like Michigan's matchup with D. Warren on Stross. Can Obi and the LBs contain Tony Moeaki?
Last year, Iowa was ranked 53rd in total offense and that was with Shon Greene and after playing a full Big Ten schedule. Thus far this year, Iowa is ranked 64th in total offense after playing Northern Iowa and Iowa State. Our offense is ranked 34th after playing WMU and ND.
This game will come down to Michigan's Forcier-driven offense versus Iowa's defense. I think Michigan will win, but it will be close.
Iowa will probably still be favored.
EDIT: That guy said the same thing I did, only earlier.
combined with a loss in bowl game. I assumed we would beat either PSU or OSU unexpectedly, and blow an easier game. I based this on vastly improved offensive play combined with questions on defense, but more than either of those a down year in Big 10. It remains to be seen if OSU can develop Pryor this year without Robiskie, Hartline, Beanie, etc. Others have pointed out similarity to 2005 Henne. It remains to be seen if PSU can handle losses on offensive line plus loss of the 3 Musketeer receivers. I also assumed we would play beyond our abilities from time to time. Still too early to know if I was right or not, but I like the idea of watching a Michigan team play beyond its capability instead of generally playing below it.
I just predicted it for fun. Biggest factor is really down year in Big 10. We'll see.
10-2 is not impossible, but is really unlikely. And the team is about one poorly placed injury away from 5-7. So let's keep our optimism at a reasonable level.
A lot would have to break right for 10-2. One thing in particular would be no injuries to defensive starters. That said, IMHO we COULD win every game except PSU (I just don't think we're there yet).
I think every game is winnable. PSU is vastly overrated because of their extremely weak schedule. Once they start playing in the B10, they will be in a lot of close games. I don't think we will win it, but I still think it COULD happen.
Agreed that games appear more winnable now. I'll be interested in seeing if the offense can maintain its production when it hits the Big 10 games. I'd love it if the first two games represent what we'll see each time out.
PSU is loaded with talent and experience; they're tricky to gauge only because of coaching. Like OSU they have outstanding talent but are susceptible to being out-maneuvered. Their run-game doesn't seem to get set up in any kind of 'hide the call' manner. They have Evan Royster, a big-time player, but he was largely ineffective on the ground against Syracuse. He was actually better as a receiver.
Even if the D. Clark to Zug and Moye numbers are legitimate and become a trend, how much better than ND is PSU? I think that's the deal: to beat PSU, we'll have to replicate the ND game facing another very talented defense. We simply cannot gauge our consistency over two games.
This season is going to be fun. I still like my 8-4 prediction, but I'll definitely be looking closely at our match-ups as the statlines get stronger and more defensible.
PSU's defense is better than ND's. I think this will be our toughest game of the year.
i hope this happens...at this point i would not be surprised at michigan being 7-0 on the other hand i would be very surprised if michigan is 8-0.
@ ND. That's a touchdown on a neutral field, which is pretty much what the line for ND-M was set at. ND's yardage advantage was negated by the special teams TD, but it looked like Vegas called the line pretty well. The implication, obviously, is that State-M will be close and that they are similarly talented. Hence, Vegas is NOT going to expect Michigan victories from here on out minus PSU/OSU.
Only 10-2? This is Michigan. We should expect 12-0 every year!
RR will clearly be on the hot seat and will need to step it up next year.
I will accept nothing less.
Do you hear me, Angry Overzealous Michigan Fan Hating God? I will accept NOTHING LESS!!!
(Yikes... Turn up Sarcasm meter)
next week, a revised prediction.
Seriously, now that we're in it, can we not get ahead of ourselves? We're one Tony Siragusa-like shoulder plant tackle from Shoelace being our only non death/ non Coner option. We learned, didn't we, from Appy State and Toledo, that crazy bad s*** happens.
Me, I still hope for 13-0, which is possible until it's not. However, I would not dream of predicting any record from this team because nothing between 13-0 and 2-10 would really surprise me after the last two seasons. YMMV.
I am being criticized for getting ahead of myself by a guy who would not be surprised if we went 2-10? Ok.
Well, when you take it out of context...
Context is irrelevant.
(Must... stop... reading... Freep...)
That is what I do.
predict all you want. I can't predict the season during the season, at least this season, this early. Insufficient data on the RR system at Michigan. (Last year has no useful data.)
I know it's all in good fun, and it's nice to hope, but let's just focus on week to week. I think Pete Caroll says it best..."We treat every game likes it's the Championship Game."
A championship is not won over a season...it is won a game at a time. It's like everyone is wishing that the season was over so we could have some stupid set of numbers like 8-4, 9-3, or maybe even 12-0. Right now I just want to be 3-0 on Saturday night, next Wednesday I'll want to be 4-0 on Saturday night.
Last year, we were so excited after one of the greatest games in the Big House, yet that team didn't pan out as well as it couldhave. Let RR, Tate, Minor and the rest of our boys show us what they got...each week. Be happy, be exicted, be thrilled to be a Michigan Fan, and treat every game like it's the Championship.
I think it will make things a lot more enjoyable, no matter what the outcome of this season will be.
I think it will make things a lot more enjoyable when we are able to stomp USC and avenge our last two Rose Bowl losses to them.
So what happens if MSU comes out and smokes ND? Or its a lot closer than 10.5 points? I think that makes our reasonable assurance of a "win" in East Lansing a lot more suspect .... Yeah, yeah, I know: There's no such thing as a "reasonable assurance of a 'win'" especially to the Spartys on their home turf.
I don't think State will have an answer for our offense, but our defense had better eat their Wheaties. Their WRs and other receivers aren't as good as ND's, but I just have a feeling our inability to cover the ND tight end won't go unnoticed.
The good news is we've still got a couple of weeks to get more experience into the D. We'll need it.
Not for nothing, but we are currently still the underdog in the MSU (+3), Illinois (+2) and Wisco (+3) games, despite our strong start. Of course, we're still the underdog vs PSU (+3) and OSU (+3......down from +7 two weeks ago!).
I think we will also be catching points at Iowa.
So, yeah, whatever....Vegas is just adjusting the odds because for the first time in like 2 years people are actually interested and willing to bet Michigan.
how much betting do you need relative to the other side to cause the line to move?
I have no clue, but I know a couple things: It takes it least several thousand of uneven action before the odds adjust and it requires a lot more than the 50 or 100 bucks I might put on a game to move the action. I may be a degenerate, but I am not a whale.
If I ever come across some info on this topic, I will find a way to sneak it in a Diary.
I am shocked we are still listed as underdogs in the MSU, Illinois and Wisconsin games. I have not checked the odds since Saturday but if you are right I am very surprised based on the performances of those teams thus far. We are also the only team among the four to beat a ranked team and to be ranked ourselves. Unless we have a meltdown, we will be undefeated going into the MSU game. Let's see what the odds are at game time.
Keep in mind a couple things. First, we haven't played away from home yet, which is an especially big concern for a young team. No one knows how we'll do away from the friendly confines of Michigan Stadium. Second, homefield advantage is set by Vegas at three points. So if we're a two-point underdog, the bookmakers are actually saying that we might win (barely) on a neutral field. All of those teams appear right now to have a realistic chance at a bowl, so it's not that surprising that they'd be slightly favored over us right now. And finally, as a young team, we're probably more likely to have wild swings in performance than a veteran team is. Meltdown games tend to happen on the road.
If MSU continues to lose in the coming weeks, we might be favored over them, but I wouldn't be surprised to be an underdog to Iowa, Wisconsin and maybe Illinois the week of those games.
Tate has been so good because he watches so much film and knows his opponents.
I say 10-2 myself. We get upset by Iowa. With a loss to....? I don't know who else. We will beat etats oiho
I had to give you a point for that smokin' hot photo of Marissa Miller. Wow.
He's attempted the "look at my cheesecake dont neg me" trick before.
I predicted 8-4 and will stick with it.
Like the 12 steppers do it, one game at a time.
I counted ND as a loss, so 9-3 is possible.
We'll find out just how good ND is. I think
they'll smoke Sparty.
Absolutely and it won't even be close. At least 14 points.
Seems a bit much. I'd still be happy with 7-8 after last year.
"Although we put up huge numbers on offense.. I wouldn't count on Forcier playing like he played the first two games. If he stuck to the averages for those two games throughout the season, you'd be expecting him to throw for 30 TDs... that's 5 more than Henne and Grbac ever threw..."
Have you noticed that the coaches Grbac and Henne played for didn't throw the ball nearly as much as RR does, and that they played a lot more conservatively than RR does? Shawn King set Tulane passing records in one year under RR; why can't Forcier set UM records his freshman year under RR?
UM is now officially part of this millenium. The game has evolved, and most of the modern offensive records should be shattered in the next ten years or so, if not this year.
I don't know what you're going to do, but I plan to sit back and enjoy the ride.
Graham Harrell (TTU) had 45 TD's last year. Chase Daniel (MO) 39. Tim Hiller (WMU) 33. Colt McCoy 34. Sam Bradford 50. David Johnson (Tulsa) 46. Why is it crazy that the Forcier to think the Forcier can throw 30? Jinxed ... welcome to the high-octane spread offenses of the 21st century.
The thing we have that will keep opposing DCs guessing is that there is not the "go-to" guy you can easily identify in most offenses. There are way too many options for Forcier. Double-cover Hemingway? No problem. Koger, Grady, Odoms, ... And just when a defense thinks its figured out the pass options, Forcier makes a nice move and scampers for a nice gainer, or Minor (RAGE!) makes them pay. I'm guessing Pepto-Bismol sales have skyrocketed in East Lansing, Columbus and Happy Valley.
That said, we're not exactly well-oiled yet. But, the potential! These last two weeks have shown a scary upside to this offense. That's what I think is fueling the idea that we could get to 10-2.
Still, I'd be delighted (if not delirious) with 8-4 this season. It means a good bowl where last year we had no bowl. Beyond that, who knows?
Thanks for the post.