Michigan 20% to win CoFoPo per Fivethirtyeight
Per FiveThirtyEight Michigan has a 20% chance to win the title.
Here's the top ten:
Alabama: 31%
Michigan: 20%
Clemson: 16%
Washington: 8%
OSU: 7%
Louisville: 6%
Texas A&M: 3%
Auburn: 2%
LSU: 2%
Wisconsin: 1%
November 1st, 2016 at 7:57 PM ^
Did they talk to the committee re TAMU?
November 1st, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
rankings so it seems they don't take TAMU too seriously. Seems that other teams would be predicted to pass them. Interestingly enough if you click the "OSU wins out" button they still give us a 24% chance to make the playoffs.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:33 PM ^
Interesting that Washington has a higher percentage of winning, yet was bumped by TAMU
November 1st, 2016 at 7:58 PM ^
I'm naming my first born son Jim Harbaugh if we win the CFP.
You think I'm joking but I'm not.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:01 PM ^
named their 2nd born Charlie Woodson you have my support.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
I'll re-name my six year old "Jim HARBAUGH" if we win the CFp.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:13 PM ^
Just screen shot this. I'll remind you when we win.
November 2nd, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^
I will not consider this season to be a success unless we beat Ohio State. To be totally honest, a national championship with a loss to OSU (which is a distinct possibility, if OSU loses to Nebraska this weekend) would be deeply unsatisfying. I would go far as to say that I prefer a win over OSU in Columbus and a loss in the CFP to a loss to OSU and two wins in the CFP.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
Nothing shows more commitment than a facial tat.
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:42 PM ^
I promise I'll get a Harbaugh tattoo if we win the national title. Cleats and all.
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:47 PM ^
Anyone that grew up in the 80's should know this.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:10 PM ^
...and YouTube has the trailer for "All The Right Moves" up for those that didn't see it.
November 2nd, 2016 at 7:53 AM ^
or was it the other way around? Who was right-Coach or Stef?
November 1st, 2016 at 10:02 PM ^
James Harbaugh Borges? Great name.
November 2nd, 2016 at 4:47 AM ^
are named Brian and Andrew. Its no coincidence that the UM quarterbacks at the time of their births were Brian Griese and Drew Henson.
My last lame is a single syllable so Drew would not work too well. I also didn't want to make it too obvious.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:01 PM ^
I'll go out on a limb...
Michigan State: 0%
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:05 PM ^
They did get 100% for effort though.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:11 PM ^
These rankings are invalid; they don't factor in their rousing moral victory on Saturday.
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:22 PM ^
Five more and they qualify for the Everyone Gets a Medal Bowl, sponsored by Pampers.
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:23 PM ^
I'm surprised the committee didn't rank Sparty and UCF #1 and #2, given their toughness and propensity for hitting hard.
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November 2nd, 2016 at 5:41 PM ^
Well, they did notify UCF that they could have beaten Michigan and been ranked #1 if they had better players.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:19 PM ^
UCF - Ineligible for hitting too hard
November 1st, 2016 at 8:44 PM ^
So, MSU has same odds as last year.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:14 PM ^
So you're saying there's a chance!
November 1st, 2016 at 9:53 PM ^
a 0% chance with dignity.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:05 PM ^
When did CoFoPo become a thing? It's needs to die.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:18 PM ^
I can't agree more with this. Truly awful.
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:28 PM ^
It's awful to say out loud, but I don't mind it in print.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:43 PM ^
I hate it in all its forms. why not type CFP?
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^
I'm cuckoo for CoFoPo.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:10 PM ^
Funnier to say out loud
November 1st, 2016 at 10:26 PM ^
It's like saying IUPUI
November 1st, 2016 at 9:07 PM ^
I don't know why college football feels the need to constantly reinvent the wheel
November 2nd, 2016 at 3:30 PM ^
The CFP isn't run by the NCAA.
November 1st, 2016 at 9:54 PM ^
CFP works just fine, thanks.
November 2nd, 2016 at 9:23 AM ^
Whenever I read this acronym, this is the image that pops into my brain:
November 1st, 2016 at 8:12 PM ^
And OSU fans are still clinging to the Vegas odds. The world just seems so right, right now.
November 2nd, 2016 at 10:14 AM ^
Suppose enough buckeye fans bet on their team, could the state of Ohio as a whole become more poor?
Vice versa for UM?
Curious net cash flow of states due to sports performances.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:18 PM ^
I believe the website is FiThEt.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:21 PM ^
osu has us at home. their odds should be much higher
November 1st, 2016 at 9:41 PM ^
<0.00%.
November 1st, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^
So the committee wants to see Alabama v Texas A&M again? Yawn.
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November 1st, 2016 at 8:49 PM ^
Knows his shit. At least when it comes to elections.
/math nerds ftw
November 1st, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
but shocked to hear Silver recently admit he'd strayed from polling math this election cycle and allowed 538 to be influenced by pundits' opinions, even as he and his crew made more money from ESPN than the NYT.
November 2nd, 2016 at 8:23 AM ^
I think they were trying to make up for their epic fail in calculating Trump's chances of winning the primary. I remember hearing on NPR that they gave him like some crazy low chance to win. Their rationale was that we haven't had many candidates like Trump. So, overreaction to a prediction that was quite off?
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November 1st, 2016 at 10:22 PM ^
538 said it was more likely for trump to play in the Super Bowl than it was for him to win the republican primary
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November 2nd, 2016 at 8:27 AM ^
They use two different predictions: the "Polls-Only" model and the "Polls-Plus" model, which is adjusted based on a few factors-- one of which is opinion. Silver himself has said that the Poll-Only model nailed Trump's nomination. Basically, he messed with his own numbers and thats why he was wrong.
The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things.
I also think the polling community was taken in by the book The Party Decides and most of them assumed that the Republicans wanted nothing to do with Trump. This is why alot of them ignored their numbers and said "Trump has no shot."
November 1st, 2016 at 11:15 PM ^
really? then hed have gotten in to Michigan.
November 2nd, 2016 at 10:04 AM ^
The University of Chicago. I'm pretty sure he could have gotten into Michigan. Or maybe he did get in and chose Chicago instead. Although that would make me question his judgment.