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Michigan 13 point dog to Bama

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:38 PM
#1
StephenRKass
StephenRKass's picture
Joined: 07/15/2008
MGoPoints: 4209
Michigan 13 point dog to Bama

Michigan is currently a 13 point underdog to Alabama in the JerryWorld game. (Link:  http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120215/SPORTS0201/202150407/1131/Michigan-now-13-point-underdog-against-Alabama.)

Personally, even though I'm not much for bets, I'd take Michigan at those odds. Of course, I'm a shameless homer who only roots for Michigan, but I can't see them beating us that soundly.

I also believe that Michigan has an advantage in facing them at the beginning of the season. Denard should have a lot more opportunity to surprise their defense. Even though Alabama has many great incoming freshmen, it always takes a while for newcomers to make solid contributions. We'll see. Of course, it'll be interested to hear RDT's take on the game and the odds.

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:41 PM | I don't see us staying close (Score:5 Normal)
KingGeorge17
Joined: 02/02/2011
MGoPoints: 124

I don't see us staying close in this game, but  I hope I'm wrong.  

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:59 PM | Come on man, (Score:5 Normal)
ChuckieWoodson
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Joined: 01/13/2012
MGoPoints: 447

This is Michigan, fergodsakes.  Besides, Hoke is undefeated against non-conference opponents at Michigan thus far! 

Also, Alabama didn't even win their conference last year...

"Touchdown... No flags!!"

Founder and current Commisioner of the ITGPD - Internet Tough Guy Police Department, est. 2012

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:14 PM | Conference? (Score:5 Normal)
jaggs
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Joined: 02/03/2009
MGoPoints: 2443

heck, they didn't even win their division in their conference last year!

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February 15th, 2012 at 8:54 PM | Yeah! (Score:-1 Flamebait)
JohnCorbin
Joined: 07/12/2011
MGoPoints: 187

This'll be a cake walk.  Everyone knows how weak the SEC is.

Edit: This is completely on topic.  It's a continuation of the joke the poster above me started, with Alabama's conference being the SEC.  

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February 16th, 2012 at 10:48 AM | Not that this is a predictor for the Jerry Bowl.... (Score:2 Normal)
Bosch
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Joined: 04/03/2009
MGoPoints: 4281

.....but Michigan has had the SEC's number.

http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/div_ia/bigten/michigan/vs_conf_opponents.php?confid=177&restrictions=none

Bama being in the SEC doesn't mean anything to me.  Them being the defending national champions is worth a few twitches though.

All right Lemmings. Bring the heat.

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:16 PM | I just think the loss of (Score:2 Normal)
KingGeorge17
Joined: 02/02/2011
MGoPoints: 124

I just think the loss of Junior Hemmingway and Molk is huge and our offense won't be able to do anything.  

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:18 PM | Yep, somebody call someone (Score:3 Normal)
Brown Bear
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Joined: 01/10/2011
MGoPoints: 2649

Yep, somebody call someone and cancel the game. Valid points.

I poop excellence
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February 16th, 2012 at 7:31 PM | It is premature for Michigan to play a team (Score:0)
nickb
Joined: 11/03/2010
MGoPoints: -92

of Alabama caliber. In two or three years we would be much more competitive. I don't know if this is a money grab for Brandon or felt he wanted some national exposure. Either way, the team will be exposed badly and it may take several games to get over it.

This by any measure is not a good game to schedule for a program starting to get back on its feet.

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:45 PM | Because we don't have (Score:-1 Flamebait)
switch26
Joined: 02/04/2010
MGoPoints: 2638

Because we don't have hemingway and molk we won't be able to move the ball? lol.. 

 

Wow good logic clown

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February 15th, 2012 at 11:24 PM | Alabama is not E. W. or S. (Score:-1 Flamebait)
phork
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Joined: 11/01/2009
MGoPoints: 1107

Alabama is not E. W. or S. Michigan.

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February 16th, 2012 at 4:54 PM | Very true. Alabama is a state (Score:2)
nikj
Joined: 01/04/2009
MGoPoints: 1099

Very true. Alabama is a State in the southern part of the US near the Gulf of Mexico.

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February 15th, 2012 at 11:23 PM | Nope, you aren't. (Score:-1 Flamebait)
phork
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Joined: 11/01/2009
MGoPoints: 1107

Nope, you aren't.

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:43 PM | 13 seems like too much.  i (Score:3 Normal)
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7692

13 seems like too much.  i bet the line moves to about 10.  i wonder whether the casinos consider this a defacto home game for the tide because they're so much closer.

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:44 PM | Go blue. All depends on the (Score:1)
UMMAN83
UMMAN83's picture
Joined: 11/26/2009
MGoPoints: 980

Play calling. Are we going to run it into the box with 8-9 tide there or be creative?
You can book those options right now.
It's on Borges.

Go Blue !!!

Dave Brandon: Detailed and thorough investigation proves that Freep report was intentionally misleading.

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:54 PM | Borges has a pretty good (Score:4 Normal)
Marvin
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Joined: 08/17/2010
MGoPoints: 1481

Borges has a pretty good record against Bama.

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:43 PM | Mostly pre-Saban, though (Score:1 Normal)
befuggled
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Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 1023

Borges was at Auburn from 2004 until 2007. Only the 2005 Alabama team (10-2) was really any good, and in the other years Alabama was a marginal bowl team. In Saban's first year they went over .500 only thanks to an Independence Bowl win (finishing 7-6).

Edit: Forgot to mention that they vacated all the 2005 wins, too.

Where's Charlie Bauman when you need him?

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:54 PM | This. (Score:4 Normal)
MgoBadFish
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Joined: 01/30/2012
MGoPoints: 149

I can see this game going so many ways. They could beat us by 20 if we try to run power all game. We could win by 20 if we get a little creative (play to our strengths). It obviously could be close too. Get Denard and Fitz in space and I like our chances. Their offense doesnt scare anyone,  ours does. Their defense scares just about everyone and ours is... improving.

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February 15th, 2012 at 8:55 PM | agree (Score:-1 Flamebait)
umchicago
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 3533

borges kind of reminds me of debord 2.0.  he has wasted several first halves by running HIS offense (ie. msu, iowa, sugar bowl) instead of running what's best for denard.

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February 15th, 2012 at 10:25 PM | He was running what is best (Score:2 Insightful)
Seattle Maize
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Joined: 03/24/2011
MGoPoints: 268

He was running what is best for the long term future of this program.  Michigan does not and should not revolve around Denard or any single player.  Unless Denard can back teams up with his arm then he will struggle against every really good defense.  

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February 16th, 2012 at 12:02 AM | Uh, what? (Score:4 Normal)
MGoAndy
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Joined: 07/22/2008
MGoPoints: 1686

Is it best for the long term future of the program to run an offense that doesn't suit Denard and lose because of it? Of course not.

In what world does Michigan's offense not revolve around Denard?

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:49 PM | very close game or... (Score:2)
acnumber1
acnumber1's picture
Joined: 10/19/2009
MGoPoints: 2657

I was going to type:

 

"I see a very close win OR we get run over...so I guess 13 falls somewhere in the middle."

 

But then I realized that such comments add nothing to this thread and I don't know anything more than pretty much anyone else on this Ides of February.

So, never mind. 

 

Edit:  I typed and entered before I saw the above Redondo post...this is not a response to that.

5 4 3 2 1 Touchdown!

Touchdown Billy Taylor!

Touchdown Billy Taylor!

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February 15th, 2012 at 6:52 PM | I'm thinking we lose by 10 or (Score:4 Normal)
Michael Scarn
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Joined: 01/21/2011
MGoPoints: 1193

I'm thinking we lose by 10 or so but it's not as close as the score indicates.  With Richardson and Maze gone, it's not like they're an explosive offense who will hang a bunch on us, but I also see them essentially shutting us down.  

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:02 PM | At first I was giving us no (Score:2 Normal)
jka347
Joined: 01/13/2011
MGoPoints: 109

At first I was giving us no shot at all and would agree with the line, but after seeing just how many players Bama is losing I'm a bit more optimistic.

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:14 PM | Any other team I would agree (Score:1 Flamebait)
MichiganITtoWINit
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Joined: 01/27/2011
MGoPoints: 202

Any other team I would agree with you, but Bama has a reputation for quick turnarounds with insanely athletic players. My guess is that we lose a close game only because we get an early lead in the first half and get beat in the second. But all these arbitrary predictions mean nothing this early.

"This is Michigan for God sakes" -Brady Hoke

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:03 PM | If Denard doesn't turn the (Score:3 Normal)
robbyt003
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Joined: 10/25/2010
MGoPoints: 2593

If Denard doesn't turn the ball over once, we win...  If he throws those prayers in the air, we lose.  Not having a Hemingway type receiver will hurt this year

“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing” - Bo Schembechler

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February 15th, 2012 at 8:34 PM | If only the Stonum situation (Score:1)
DrewGOBLUE
DrewGOBLUE's picture
Joined: 12/03/2011
MGoPoints: 203

If only the Stonum situation wouldn't have turned out the way it did the wide out situation would feel a lot better

If Ann Arbor is a whore, why didn't you get in?

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:08 PM | I want to hear jamiemac's (Score:3 Normal)
Bodogblog
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Joined: 06/08/2010
MGoPoints: 7587

I want to hear jamiemac's take.  And I'm too lazy to check his blog to see if he has anything up yet

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:14 PM | This is probably the most (Score:1 Normal)
KingGeorge17
Joined: 02/02/2011
MGoPoints: 124

This is probably the most difficult game on the schedule with OSU a close second.  If we win, it could be a very special season.  

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:25 PM | I think (Score:4 Normal)
BrewCityBlue
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Joined: 09/07/2009
MGoPoints: 1468

we can safely say this is definitely the hardest game on the schedule, and nothing is really that close of a 2nd. 

HAIL.

"Where's the threat? Oh, it's right here, and it's devouring us alive." -Ace<

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:15 PM | If Denard can consistently throw (Score:1)
BlueinTC
Joined: 07/26/2011
MGoPoints: 207

a good ball and limit the turnovers, I think we have a chance, not a good one, but a chance.  This holds true for most games...if Denard's arm is a threat they can't stack the box on us, which opens up room for Denard and Fitz.

I'm sure Big Al is scheming from now until then, as well.

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:16 PM | Too much, this will be a close Affair (Score:5 Normal)
RollDamnTide
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Joined: 02/03/2012
MGoPoints: 374

I see this game being a very close affair, sort of like Cary Grant and Deborah Kerr in an "Affair to Remember". Distant at first, but by the end, you won't be able to fit a nickle between them. 

 

 

Yeah, Alabama had an American Film course, what of it?

Roll Tide.

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February 15th, 2012 at 11:58 PM | nice story (Score:1)
Jon Benke
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Joined: 01/04/2010
MGoPoints: 1449

I still think you're a masked UM fan, but ... props either way.

You either aren't, and you're just a great guy -- or -- you're really a Michigan fan, pretending to be an Alabama fan, to which you get plus 5 on pretty much any post you make ... and we're all a bunch of suckers.  Either way, you can't lose :)

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:34 PM | This is the game that can seal a career (Score:3 Normal)
StephenRKass
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Joined: 07/15/2008
MGoPoints: 4209

I will say, I expect Michigan to lose.

However, if Michigan should win, it would do incredible things. Among others,

  • It would cement Hoke's reputation and tenure as Michigan coach. To beat Ohio the first year, and the reigning national champion in your second, would be incredible.
  • It would greatly further Denard's career, and could open the door to a Heisman. If he should be able to run against Alabama's defense, and pass, that would open the eyes of voters around the country.
  • It would bode well for both Borges, and Mattison. They are great coordinators now. This would give them credibility beyond the Big 10. To have beaten Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl, and then Alabama, would mean they planned very well.
  • It would help with recruiting. Right now, many of the best players in the country look to Alabama, and Auburn, and USC, and Ohio. We are getting our share, but were helped tremendously by the strong classes in Michigan and Ohio with the 2012 signing day. If we beat Alabama, this would open the eyes of many potential recruits far beyond our regular geographic reach.

Honestly, this game is really set to benefit Michigan tremendously. If we lose, well, it's expected. If we win, it helps us in so many ways. This is a very high risk - reward game. Who gets the credit for scheduling Alabama? IIRC, it would be one David Brandon. If so, this is working out brilliantly for Michigan. We get a huge payday, great exposure, and if we win, rewards that far exceed the risk. I understand that Brandon can be blamed for many things. In this case, he should receive huge credit.

I'd love to see the odds stay this high, and even get worse, and then see Michigan pull the trap of doom on Alabama. This will be such a hard season, and game, to wait for. Argh.

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

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February 15th, 2012 at 8:58 PM | Agreed. (Score:1)
bluujuu
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Joined: 11/27/2010
MGoPoints: 81

 

I think you're dead on. Plus, that's a good way to approach the game mentally for me to avoid emotional devastation.

Don't mean to nitpick, but unless I misunderstood, I believe you meant it's a low risk-high reward game, since if we lose it's expected and if we win it's miraculous. 

 

Yes, I am a girl.

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February 15th, 2012 at 9:26 PM | I believe you meant it's a (Score:1 Normal)
DonAZ
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I believe you meant it's a low risk-high reward game, since if we lose it's expected and if we win it's miraculous.

Depending how we play if we lose.  A spirited fight to the end with it relatively close ... it's a marginal plus for Michigan still.  If Michigan gets man-handled then it'll hurt.

Midwestern born and raised ... now living in the heat of the Arizona desert

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February 16th, 2012 at 4:16 AM | Hey Don (Score:1)
San Diego Mick
Joined: 05/11/2011
MGoPoints: 1560

What's up buddy, it's Mick from AA.com, I've been reading this blog more than anything else lately, best blog around with great participation and we're all supportive of Hoke, now anyways, some doubted a year ago, now not so much.

As for the spread on this game, it makes me chuckle a bit at how so many have a doom and gloom outlook for the Bama game. I think Hoke and staff proved last year how good they are. Now we are into year 2 with them and we will only get better. I bet if you asked most SEC fans what B1G program and school they respect and fear the most, it would be us Wolverines. We're the only program that has historically beat that conference, including bowl games.

Why do you think Hoke said this is Michigan for god sakes? Because it is Michigan for gods sakes! Notice how Roll Damn Tide shows us respect? I like that guy and he is welcome here in my eyes and as he stated, it will be close, U-M intimidates others, remember that. Plus I think and have been saying for a while now that we are entering a golden era in M football.

Go Blue!!!

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February 15th, 2012 at 8:58 PM | Agreed. (Score:1)
bluujuu
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Joined: 11/27/2010
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Argh, sorry-- double post.

 

Yes, I am a girl.

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February 15th, 2012 at 10:34 PM | Sounds like you've described (Score:2)
GoBlue
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Joined: 07/24/2008
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Sounds like you've described low risk - high reward to me.

Honestly, this game is really set to benefit Michigan tremendously. If we lose, well, it's expected. If we win, it helps us in so many ways. This is a very high risk - reward game.

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February 15th, 2012 at 11:51 PM | It's high risk-reward because (Score:1)
FrankMurphy
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It's high risk-reward because if lose and go 12-1, this game will have been the only thing that kept us from an undefeated season. But if we win and go 13-0, then we'll have the strongest resume of any team in the country. 

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February 16th, 2012 at 2:48 PM | If you want to call it (Score:2)
GoBlue
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MGoPoints: 303

If you want to call it high-risk, then I'd say that it has the potential to be an ugly loss, setting up a potential early seasion slide (including the game at Notre Dame,) coupled with a few other losses throughout the season which could turn next year's record into one which is much worse than this past season's.

If the down side is that we could end up at 12-1, that is not high-risk.

Also, in the quote I referenced a "nothing to lose, but everything to gain" situation was described which, if you accept that as reality, is decidely not high-risk.

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February 16th, 2012 at 12:13 AM | You are correct (Score:1)
StephenRKass
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You are correct, I typed the wrong phrase. And of course, I can't edit that one sentence. But yes, I feel the risk to Michigan is low, and the potential reward should we win (or even play competitively) is very high.

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

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February 16th, 2012 at 2:54 PM | Not that it makes a big difference... (Score:2)
GoBlue
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MGoPoints: 303

...but I agree with your assessment.  If we lose an ugly game, it isn't much worse than what many expected.  If we win... buckle up!

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February 16th, 2012 at 3:21 PM | I'll give Dave Brandon credit (Score:2)
a2bluefan
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I'll give Dave Brandon credit when he gets a game like this at the Big House. Not when it's scheduled at some outrageously overpriced neutral field.

I automatically downvote "B1G"
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February 15th, 2012 at 7:31 PM | I want to believe that we'll (Score:1)
FrankMurphy
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I want to believe that we'll win this game. I really do.

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February 15th, 2012 at 7:37 PM | I think this line is a little (Score:1)
crjorgensen
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Joined: 01/23/2012
MGoPoints: 82

I think this line is a little high and will drop to 10 like some others have suggested come kickoff. I can't wait for this game and although Bama is clearly better then us but  since Bama lost so much on defense I am hoping this will hurt them in the beginning of the season. They clearly have a bunch of young talent on defense, but hopefully these guys have some nerves in the first game of the season. Denard is going to have to have the game of his life. He is going to have to have a game very similar to the OSU game this year or the ND game 2 years ago where he had 502 total yards for us to have a chance. Also, I am a little concerned with how Fitz will do against a defense as physical as Bama's and idk if our receivers will get separation against Bama's corners.

Although the Bama offense isn't that explosive, I am still worried how our D is going to go against their offense. Despite losing Richardson, they still have eddie lacy who is a very good back and dee hart is expected to be a key contributor in their offense. I am always worried about our secondary and even though Bama loses Maze Duron Carter is eligible this coming year and could have a big impact at receiver for Bama.

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February 15th, 2012 at 9:46 PM | If... (Score:1)
Edward Khil
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Joined: 03/06/2010
MGoPoints: 924

If Denard has 302 total yards, Michigan has a chance.  He won't get much more than that.  But that could be enough.  It's up to the "D" to do the rest.

They don't realize that there's this, like, lattice of coincidence that lays on top of everything.
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February 15th, 2012 at 7:38 PM | I agree with the above comments... (Score:2)
Reconnisaur
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Joined: 11/25/2011
MGoPoints: 75

  I think if we do everything right, no turnovers, play to our strengths and Denard has a excellent game it will be close and might even get a win.

 

  Now if I can just get my hands on some tickets when they go on sale since I am stationed 2.5 hrs away...

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February 16th, 2012 at 12:07 AM | I think we'll have to play a (Score:1)
FrankMurphy
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Joined: 08/19/2008
MGoPoints: 2502

I think we'll have to play a near-flawless game to win. Having said that, we return a lot of experience at most of the skill positions, and 'Bama will be breaking in a bunch of new starters. It's certainly doable. 

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February 15th, 2012 at 8:01 PM | am I alone in thinking that this wasn't the world's (Score:1 Normal)
MGlobules
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 5165

greatest move by Brandon? Would Hoke have welcomed it behind the scenes? Do recruiting benefits materialize if we lose by two TDs? Not that that's a foregone conclusion--maybe Denard dances rings of fire around them, but. 

A year hence, yes. . . 

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February 16th, 2012 at 12:16 AM | You may not be alone (Score:1)
StephenRKass
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Joined: 07/15/2008
MGoPoints: 4209

But I, for one, welcome the challenge. I am tired of Michigan playing a steady diet of MAC snacks, and UMass, and Delaware State, etc. To be good, you have to play the best. Better to play them and lose, then to duck them, go undefeated, and be slaughtered in a bowl. This will give Hoke & Mattison & Borges the opportunity to measure Michigan well.

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

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