We've been fortunate to have some great matchups early on
Michigan #1 Seed in ESPN Re-Seed
The "experts" and pundits saying we were prime for an upset doesn't equate to the reality that the matchups were very favorable for us.
The Sagarin Ratings bear this out somewhat as well. Kansas will be the first team in the Tournament that we face which would have a Sagarin Rating higher than ours, albeit not by much.
Right now, our rating is 90.28, which is 8th in Division I, and our opponents to date had ratings of 77.56 (SDSU, good for 98th on the list) and 86.17 (VCU, good for 20th on the list), so we had the edge clearly by those numbers anyway. As there is only about 9 points of separation between 1st and 20th, any game between any two teams in that block will be interesting. It so happened that VCU played right into the things Michigan does best, as others have said.
Kansas is 6th with a rating of 91.49, so by this algorithm, this game is a tossup of sorts, with a slight edge to Kansas. If we survive to the Elite Eight, we face either the team with the 2nd highest rating (Florida, although it has been noted that Sagarin's algorithm may overrate Florida some because it is sensitive blowouts) and FGCU (86th on the list).
When you are one of the top four seeds, the matchups are supposed to favor you in the first week. That is a reward for playing well during the regular season. It is turning out that the Big Ten is every bit as good of a conference as the media thought they were. The only team that had an embarrassing loss was Wiscy; everyone else represented the conference quite well.
While nice, it really is meaningless. It'd be interesting if the NCAA did do a re-seeding process for the Sweet 16 officially, but yes, fluff from ESPN.
We got two very favorable matchups for us, the difficulty increases exponentially from hereon out. We've got to beat Kansas.
I feel like this is a plot to a bad Buffalo Wild Wings commercial
heeelarious "take it to overtime" ads don't leave you gasping for air? The crazy bastard can control individual sprinkler heads for fuck's sake! That's gold, Jerry!
Why do they call it Ovaltine, anyway? Shouldn't they call it Roundtine?
I don't know, it's kind of funny how these alleged sports fans measure enjoyment of a game by how long it is and not the outcome.
It feels like most people are writing off VCU after the fact, but they were a scary matchup before the game. We played a heck of a game, it was far from a gimme.
My opinion is that people who picked VCU over Michigan thought "VCU went to the Final Four in 2011, so, they will probably beat Michigan".
I picked Michigan by double digits (yes, tooting my own horn right now, don't mean to sound arrogant) because I knew VCU's style of play 'forced' Michigan into our strengths on the court, namely, we played an up-tempo transition-style offense, which is where we've been most effective this season. If VCU would've called off the press and switched to a halfcourt defense, the game probably would've been closer. I'm not sure if all of this makes VCU a decent team that a better Michigan team defeated, or if VCU really wasn't that good.
I'd say the only team who has looked more dominant than Michigan through 2 games is Louisville, so the re-seeding article does sound about right. Kansas, Indiana, Ohio State, etc. have all had underwhelming performances, Michigan has not.
OK, so we only won by 25, but it seemed obvious that what VCU preys on is Michigan's strength (in the form of future NBA players, no less).
It would be interesting to see VCU tear into Wisconsin's Ugly Ball. I bet they'd win at least one of two versus the BadCagers.
but they were a scary matchup before the game.
Why? Because their YouTube Havoc video, set to Drowning Pool, had them making the likes of James Madison and Temple look bad? What I took away from it was that Havoc looks good against some mid-majors, but let's see what happens against an athletic team full of ball-handlers.
Exactly this. VCU's defense will work against similarly-talented teams and inferior teams, but when you meet higher-talented teams, particularly ones with skilled player-of-the-year-type players, it's going to backfire horrendously.
Well, except that in 2011, VCU beat 6-seed Georgetown, 3-seed Purdue, and 1-seed Kansas on their way to the Final Four.
Everyone beats Georgetown in the tourney, let's be honest.
I think it's fair to say that coach Beilein is also an important factor in having the team ready to play.
Written by the same guy who said Michigan wouldn't make it to the Sweet 16...
Aslo he was wrong about 7 of his 10 "predictions," He was sort of right about FGCU, and #1 and #2 are pending. Boy I hope he is actually right about #1...
I like how he says in his first prediction that Kansas won't make it to Atlanta, then in his second prediction (that the Big Ten title dought will continue) he uses Kansas' strength as an argument for why the Big Ten won't win the title this year.
About Michigan's "rough opening weekend" he projected:
Michigan won’t reach the Sweet 16 -- What a daunting path for the Wolverines. They open the NCAA tournament with a matchup against a dangerous South Dakota State squad that’s led by NBA prospect Nate Wolters. And then they have to go against a VCU team (assuming the Rams beat Akron) that forces turnovers on 28.7 percent of its opponents’ possessions (first in the nation, per Pomeroy). That’s a rough path for the Wolverines. Trey Burke is a very talented athlete. And he’s surrounded by young standouts. But that Michigan defense has been a concern all season. It’s going to be magnified as the Wolverines struggle in the opening weekend.
Now their seed matches what they have always been in my heart.
Too little, too late.
Thanks a lot, Captain Hindsight.
Michigan should not have been a 4 seed.
so we are the chalk pick for Friday now? Sweet!
We've done well in the chalk position this tourney.
I typically roll my eyes when I hear coaches say you need to ignore the media. However, I have to agree with that this time around.
- I never thought Michigan was a prime candidate for an upset in the first weekend.
- Conversely, I don't know that I would see Michigan being favored against Kansas, and should we beat them, against Florida.
Some of the best advice I received from a grizzled and experienced veteran when I entered my career applies well here. "Don't get too excited and happy when things go well, and don't get too down when things go poorly." Michigan is a good team, a very good team. They are neither "great," nor are they a bunch of bums. However, like virtually everyone in the field, they need some luck to pull it off. The following needs to happen:
- Michigan needs to play very well, especially their bigs;
- Their opponents need to play poorly;
- The refs need to keep us from getting mugged;
- We need the next ball sitting on the rim to fall in the basket, not out, as it did versus Indiana. In other words, we need a bit of luck.
If all these things happen, we'll be in the Final Four. In the Final Four, I don't know how it would go, because of the familiarity Ohio, Indiana, and MSU have with Michigan.
Dammit, I want another crack at Tom Crean. After we beat him, he can leave the court to chants from the Michigan faithful "WE RUINED YOUR SEASON!"
I can't remember where I was just reading this, but it's easy to say that whatever storyline your team has at the moment will be the direction that the media and analysts will push you in.
Michigan misstepped in conference down the stretch? SDSU will clearly win! (Forget rational defensive matchup numbers and common sense)
Wisconsin beat Indiana in the B1G Tournament? Elite 8! (Aside from the fact that they were inconsistent at best, mind-numbingly boring at worst, and just got blown out by State)
Gonzaga hasn't lost in conference? National championship! (Aside from the fact that the WCC barely squeaked two teams into the tournament)
You can see how easily the tide turns. All of a sudden Michigan locks up a nice win and it's all pouring back on. ESPN is running stories where they say that the Zags loss is the worst loss in program history. There are actually a decent number of people who are confidently picking FGCU over Florida. I cannot tell you how many people are saying that Kansas "sucks" because of their game against Western Kentucky.
You're right, it's crazy the heaps of praise/criticism that jumps out of the woodwork in a single tournament game.
Every other Michigan fan probably thought the same, but I knew this would happen if Michigan made it to the Sweet 16. They were everyone's favorite upset pick. They made it by two relatively weak teams (by tourney standards) and now all of a sudden they're media darlings again. Not that I really care, but I feel like we all could have seen this coming from a mile away.
We have looked strong in two games so I get the reseeding but I'd rather stay under the radar. I think people are getting a tad overexcited about winning two straight games where we were favored to win.
Wasn't it like a week ago where 80% of people on here said that if Michigan doesn't make the Elite 8 or better that it would be a disappointment of a season??
Four B1G teams in the top six "seeds"... damn.
All 4 remaining big 10 teams in the top 6. Would be pretty cool to see a big ten final four with Michigan coming out on top.
edit: oops dude above me beat me to it.
Also, in the NIT, Iowa has the highest KenPom ranking of the remaining teams.
Octofinalists Playing Tonight
I wouldn't put us as a 4-seed in a "re-rank" but #2 overall is ridiculous.
I'll get negged, I know, but if we're honest. We're a high 2-seed right now. Louisville, Indiana, Duke, Kansas, Miami, Florida would still be ahead of us.
I'm not saying we're not better. But you have to earn that type of praise. We've won 2 games, one in impressive fashion.
I'll simplify it a bit
1. Louisville & Indiana
3. Duke, MSU, Michigan, Florida, Kansas, Miami, OSU, Syracuse
11. Oregon (two quality wins, was tempted to bump them up a group)
12. Arizona, Witchita State
14. Marquette (staggering), Florida Gulf Coast
Projected NBA draftees from teams in the Sweet Sixteen