MICHIGAN #1 in B1G (sagarin computer rank)

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October 14th, 2012 at 10:46 AM
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michelin
Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 479
MICHIGAN #1 in B1G (sagarin computer rank)

MIchigan is the top team in the B1G according to The Sagarin poll.  Below I list the PREDICTOR ratings--which are the best in actually predicting game outcomes.  I also list the overall national rank according to these ratings.*

 

1. Michigan  (#13 overall, rating 85.33)

2. Ohio (#18 overall, rating 83.15) INELIGIBLE for postseason

3. Neb (#23, rating 81.74)

4. Wisconsin (#27, rating 79.69)

5. PSU (#28, 79.64) ALSO INELIGIBLE for postseason

6. MSU (#36. 77.2)

 

One predicts the outcome of future games by subtracting the two Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (with + or -3 for Home Field).  So, if we play Wisc in INDY for the B1G title, we should be favored by 5-6 points.  If Ohio were not ineligible and Michigan played them in INDY, UM would beat Ohio.   In Columbus, the game would be essentially a tossup (less than a one point margin).   Also, Michigan would be favored over MSU by 8 points on a neutral field and  by 11 points this coming week in Ann Arbor (+3 for home field).

I don't know what the Vegas point spread is, but I suspect that it will be smaller, since UM-MSU is a rivalry game.

 

*Michigan also is #1 when Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings are averaged with the ELO-CHESS ratings.  The latter do not consider point margins and are not as good in predicting actual game outcomes.  Regrettably, the overall BCS computer rankings use  the ELO-CHESS Sagarin ratings--as well as other computer polls that often overweigh WL records and underweigh SOS.  So, we will not do as well when the BCS computer rankings come out.  However, I do not believe that any of these alternative ranks has been shown to do as well as the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings in forecasting actual game outcomes.  And that's what's important in predicting the rest of the UM season.

 

 

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

michelin

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October 14th, 2012 at 10:55 AM | Is this even a surprise?  (Score:2 Normal)
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 482

Is this even a surprise? 

October 14th, 2012 at 11:20 AM | forSpartanfan123 below: Which "this" (Score:0 Flamebait)
October 14th, 2012 at 10:59 AM | Isn't being... (Score:5 Normal)
GRBluefan
GRBluefan's picture
Joined: 02/13/2009
MGoPoints: 528

#1in the B1G kind of like being the lone dwarf at a midget party?

October 14th, 2012 at 11:13 AM | The B1G is #4 (Score:2 Normal)
michelin
Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 479

among conferences, according to Sagarin rankings.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc12.htm

michelin

October 14th, 2012 at 11:32 AM | The Big 10 is undoubtedly (Score:1)
One Inch Woody ...
One Inch Woody Hayes Punch's picture
Joined: 06/25/2011
MGoPoints: 562

The Big 10 is undoubtedly better than the ACC and the Big East. It is also marginally better than the Pac 12 (the Big 10 losses to Pac 12 opponents in the non-conference portion were AWAY games, and the teams hadn't settled in yet with O'Brien at QB for Wisco and Nebraska's offense/defense in limbo). 

I would say that the Big 10 is also marginally worse than the Big 12 ... as we saw with WVU yesterday, sometimes their offenses can seem overinflated because everyone just sucks at defense in that league.

... So.. 3rd best conference, which given the coaching changes and draft losses/graduation is not bad at all.

October 14th, 2012 at 11:37 AM | I really don't think we're (Score:5 Normal)
Shaqsquatch
Shaqsquatch's picture
Joined: 04/08/2009
MGoPoints: 3302

I really don't think we're better than the Pac 12 this year.

October 14th, 2012 at 12:22 PM | B1G vs. Pac-12 (Score:2)
EGD
EGD's picture
Joined: 09/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1878

I watch a fair amount of Pac-12 football and would have to agree that the Pac is better this season.  That's usually not the case, but here's how I would compare the leagues:

The top two teams in the Pac-12 are Oregon & USC; they are better than the top two teams in the B1G (UM & Ohio).

For the next tier of the Pac-12, I would include Stanford, Oregon State, Washington, ASU, and UCLA.  I would call that group comparable, if not slightly better, than the second tier of the B1G, which includes Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern, and probably MSU (on a good day).

On the third, sort of "could upset somebody but generally not very good" tier of the Pac-12, you have teams like Arizona, Utah, Cal.  In the B1G, that tier includes Iowa, Penn State, Minnesota, Purdue.  That level is basically a wash--though the B1G seems to have more teams hovering around that low level than the Pac-12 does.

For doormats, the Pac has Colorado and WSU.  The B1G has Illinois and IU.  Those teams are pretty analogous.

 

"You will suffer humiliation when the team from my area defeats the team from your area." -- The Onion

October 14th, 2012 at 1:55 PM | Pac 12 > B1G (Score:4 Normal)
outwest
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Joined: 09/24/2009
MGoPoints: 1148

Ap 25 conference comparison 

2) Oregon                                               7) Ohio

8) Oregon State                                   23) Michigan

11) USC

22) Stanford

Others recieving votes

     ASU                                                    Northwestern 

     Washington                                       Wisc

     Arizona                                              Nebraska

                                                                 Penn State

 

I would take any of the ranked Pac 12 teams over any ranked B1G teams at this point in a head to head.

You can sum up this sport in two words, 'You never know.'

October 14th, 2012 at 3:33 PM | Oregon State and UCLA have (Score:1 Trolling)
stephenrjking
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Joined: 03/15/2012
MGoPoints: 1298

Oregon State and UCLA have beaten Wisconsin and Nebraska. Stanford has even chances in games again UM and OSU. I think the PAC matches up well everywhere on the roster.

Servant. Pastor. Husband. Michigan fan in Duluth. 

October 14th, 2012 at 1:11 PM | I'm a little surprised (Score:2)
da3mite
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Joined: 06/27/2011
MGoPoints: 184

I'm a little surprised that the Big 12 is ahead of the SEC

October 14th, 2012 at 12:45 PM | It's Snow White--or maybe Dyno-Mite (MI-OH-NEB-WISC) (Score:1)
michelin
Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 479

and the seven dwarfs.

  1. Dopey: MSU
  2. Sneezy: MINN
  3. Sleepy: ILL
  4. Doc: NW
  5. Happy: IND
  6. Bashful:PSU
  7. Grumpy: PUR

michelin

October 14th, 2012 at 11:16 AM | Conference Average (Score:5 Normal)
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8743

The average Predictor for the Big Ten is 75.49, which would be good for the low 40s in terms of a rank if they were a team unto themselves. The two teams closest to that average would be Northwestern and Iowa. It's interesting that many talked about the Legends division being a three-way race between Nebraska, Michigan and MSU in August and these are the three teams in the Legends sitting above the conference average. Subtracting the ineligible members of the Leaders, only Wisconsin sits above the conference average. It is interesting that things are shaping up to fall in line with most predictions thus far. 

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

October 14th, 2012 at 12:50 PM | yes, the whole season is making more sense (Score:1)
michelin
Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 479

Interestingly, NEB on the road now looks like the biggest hurdle we face in getting to INDY.  (according to Sagain, we should be favored there by a bit less than one point).   However, if we jump that hurdle, the merely "average" Iowa team--which just beat MSU--may  be the only obstacle UM faces in getting to INDY--the Ohio game could turn out to be irrelevant to the conference race.

In any case, as you suggest, the season is starting to make a lot more sense. 

Michigan too is making more sense.

or

As John Borton said on Rivals today:

 

"This, increasingly, is Michigan."

michelin

October 14th, 2012 at 11:41 AM | http://www.youtube.com/watch? (Score:1)
Hail.
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Joined: 07/24/2012
MGoPoints: 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Comn_-FRY-A&feature=player_embedded

October 14th, 2012 at 2:04 PM | 100 years from now, people (Score:2 Normal)
Wolverine Devotee
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Joined: 06/29/2009
MGoPoints: -9994437

100 years from now, people are going to laugh at us and call us bumbling retards for using computers to solve who the champion is. Of course, they'll have a 64 team playoff by then.

When the ADept sells special jerseys and gear, you'll see my picture next to the targeted customer crowd. A sheep.....but a Blue one.....

October 14th, 2012 at 3:36 PM | Except they won't be in good enough shape to laugh (Score:1)
Muttley
Muttley's picture
Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: 4599

My parents could say to me, "I had to walk 5 miles to school. (in the snow, uphill both ways)."

I say to my kids, "When I was your age, I had to get up to change the channel."

October 14th, 2012 at 2:16 PM | Home field is worth more than 3 points (Score:1)
Nick
Nick's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 977

In college football. LSU for example is worth 5 according to most 'sharp' bettors.

October 14th, 2012 at 3:33 PM | Sagarin favors Alabama by 11 over #2 Oklahoma (Score:1)
Muttley
Muttley's picture
Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: 4599

.

October 15th, 2012 at 10:44 AM | Yeah (Score:2)
DCAlum
Joined: 01/30/2012
MGoPoints: 215

The distance between Alabama and everyone else is ridiculous.

October 14th, 2012 at 3:49 PM | So we're 8 points  better (Score:1)
Cold War
Joined: 01/15/2012
MGoPoints: 436

So we're 8 points  better than Sparty, three for home  field, eleven point favorite?

October 14th, 2012 at 8:05 PM | the sagarin 11 point spread (Score:1)
michelin
Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 479

is right on the money vis a vis vegas (10.5).  

michelin

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