I think we win, but that seems REALLY high considering IU's offensive power.
Let's hope the money is right.
I think we win, but that seems REALLY high considering IU's offensive power.
Let's hope the money is right.
It should be a slugfest, but I think people (including myself) assume Michigan will outscore IU as long as Denard is healthy and maybe even if he isn't. It does seem high, though.
it opened at -14 and was bet down faster than i could even click 4 buttons.
I'll take the over, whatever it is.
...but, it doesn't look like over/under is posted yet. They are probably still trying to add up all the potential TDs.
IU is not a total pushover, but I think we're overrating them a bit because of last year's close finish. Keep in mind that when we played them last year, it was our first game without Molk and featured Moosman's Cavalcade of Shotgun Snap Whimsy. We had like four drives killed because of bad shotgun snaps.
those snaps did kill momentum several times. All I remember from the game now is Odoms' catch and that damned running back getting the corner on Floyd and Kovacs more than a couple of times.
Who is the lady calling that game? Her voice was so annoying I couldn't listen to that clip for more than a minute.
Be nice to Pam Ward, he has very low self esteem.
The sex change has yet to be completed. In due time my friend, in due time.
Man, this offense is going to shred the defense Saturday. They really blow hard.
Oh Tobias, you blowhard.
that damned running back getting the corner on Floyd and Kovacs more than a couple of times.
Like THAT is ever going to happen again.
a night time listening tape for Mouton to go to sleep to all week long.
"Funnel the runner to the inside. Your help is on the inside. Funnel the runner to the inside. Your help is on the inside."
All I remember is Indiana's coach firing his gum harder than Chad Henne could ever throw a football after Donovan Warren's interception.
I thought he ripped a tooth out he was so mad.
this year too. If you watch BGSU's long TD again, Kovacs is actually as fast as Cam Gordon, maybe faster. He seems to be gaining on Gordon while they're both trying in vain to run down the WR.
+1 for the indirect Sideshow Bob reference!
While I agree with your broader point, the sad truth is even if you take away the bad snaps Indiana outplayed us last year and probably deserved to win. We actually only had 3 fumbles, losing one. The real problem was they averaged a 6.6 yard gain per play while we only averaged 5.0 and they outgained us by almost 100 yards.
But you can't take away the bad snaps. They weren't turnovers, but they were 10-15-yard losses every time. (I'm not sure, but I don't think bad snaps are counted as fumbles if they never touch the QB's hands.) They basically killed a bunch of drives in a row and forced our D to spend a ton of time on the field. Remarkably, we managed to score 36 points anyway. When we didn't shoot ourselves in the foot, they didn't stop us.
There were only two bad snaps that went for negative yardage (both about 20 yard losses). They killed two non consecutive drives. No bad snaps were recovered by Indiana.
MgoBlogs most pained, jaded Michigan fan.
It's been a rough couple of years, man. We all know it. It won't help to go around castrating our limited successes.
That first line is good enough to be my new tagline. I can't help but be a little jaded- my fandom began my freshman year ('06 season), when I didn't know how good I had it. The last few years have been incredibly, incredibly frustrating and it may be painful to look at the extent of it, but at the same time it shows us how far we've come. FWIW I think we beat Indiana big.
If you would be able to read it all, I would TOTALLY set up a troll account named Moosman's Cavalcade of Shotgun Snap Whimsy.
for the IU game before our BG game?
... it was 10.5.
... I don't buy this Indy having a powerful offense stuff.
I say hang a 50-spot on them.
It's the Revenge Tour, gentlemen.
For the snide, gloating, and doubting bitches start to pay. hopefully the pay all year.
Although IU is the one wanting the revenge in this particular case.
I'd say we will win by 10-14. Probably 10. I know they haven't played anyone good, but they've won all their games by 15+. Chappell has been good.
Sorry to be a little off topic, but Wisconsin is only favored by 2. Lock pick anyone?
Wisconsin hasn't been that impressive. They basically tied ASU and struggled in their games against overmatched opposition with some red zone turnovers. I'd say that line seems about right.
to cover but I wouldn't feel good about it. I would be interested to see where the line is at on Friday. On second thought, I wouldn't touch that line. But Denard should play the whole game right? I'll take UM to cover. We should beat Indiana by 2 touchdowns. But what if Denard gets banged up? This is Big Ten season. Not touching it. But Denard looks so good. He should have another 200/200 game. They will definitely cover.
This is why I don't gamble.....
It's a good thing you don't gamble, 'cause gambling is illegal, right?
That's it..... Totally Illegal.
at about 11 pts fwiw.
Sagarin's predictor had BGSU game at 14 points.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a combined 1000 yards of offense in this game. I just hope it's 700-300 in our favor...
Well, don't ask me for betting advice.
I told a few people last week to "bet the farm" and take the points in both the Michigan AND MSU game.
No one really has any idea what IU is all about this year... Their SoS according to Sagarin is 200th (!).
The predictor has them at 65.99 and Mich at 79.68, so -13.5 doesn't seem too far off.
Actually, we do know something about Indiana: their run defense isn't very good. I don't know if you've seen any of their games, but holy cow. Towson rushed for 227 yards on them and Western Kentucky and Akron were both over 140 yards. That's 5.4, 4.6, 5.3 yards per carry, respectively. Michigan averages 50 rushes per game. Using Indiana's average yards per rush given up, that's 255 yards. If it's closer to Michigan's 6.6 average yards per rush, it would come out to about 330 yards.
Also, how many wins did those three teams have combined in 2009? The correct answer is five. And rounding out by far the easiest out of conference schedule in the Big Ten is Arkansas State on October 16.
So they're not playing Kentucky? I thought that was an annual game.
Lynch has to make a bowl this year with that OOC schedule.
Not really. They outgained us by almost 100 yards and we only lost one fumble.
I don't get it. It was close last year because
How does that last one make sense?
I misinterpreted the box score. Originally I was citing (3) to take issue with the idea that (1) was the dominant reason it was close.
Upon reading the play by play, Moosman only launched two bad snaps on plays that went for losses (about 20 yards each). The fumble we lost actually wasn't on a bad snap, it was on a Denard run that went for positive yardage.
So in total the bad snaps cost us at least 40 yards of offense and effectively killed two drives (one in Indiana territory- although Zoltan managed to salvage our field position by pinning them on the 2). The bad snaps resulted in no turnovers.
I just want a Michigan victory! I don't care it's by 44 or by 1, I just want the 'W'. I really hope that our D does not give up any big plays to IU. We should not under estimate the Hoosiers. Nonetheless, I hope we win this shootout.
We should not take any team lightly this year PERIOD
It seems like Indiana has been significantly overrated on this board. They've beaten two truly horrendous teams (both much, much worse than BGSU according to Sagarin) by 15 and 17 points. Their vaunted offense put up 466 and 426 yards of offense in those games. Color me unimpressed.
Lets say Denard is still dinged and does not play. I like our chances of covering with either Tate or Devin!
I watched their game last wk and Akron should of beat them by 2 touchdowns if their recievers didn't drop every fuckin ball in the end zone.. They were pathetic. Akron's QB dropped it right in their hands several times to completely wide open guys and they just drop the ball..
Our recievers are gonna tear up the secondary and denard will have 200 yards rushing by the half.. easily
Jebus. A thread about IU and gambling. Jamiemac head asplode?
Should they be looked over? No, definitely not. And the way it sounds from the coaches and players they won't be. They're not a bad team for being IU. Should we be really worried? No, just very careful. We will do better than we did last year. We should win by around ten points. The defense will use the time to figure out what they're doing a little more and will use said knowledge to help against MSU the following week.
Seeing that 2/3 of RichRod's games have been over the pt total, you'd think Vegas would set the pt total at 90 or so. But nooooo, they'll probably set it at 62 -- but then again we're not complaining :-)
I think IU is gonna be somewhat vulnerable early in the game because the "quality" and "game speed" of their opponents so far is so awful. They haven't seen anything like Denard or Martin so far this year.
But maybe they will start to catch up later? hopefully we'll be ahead by enough that it's irrelevant.
But I think that Michigan has the edge offensively as they have played superior teams in their four wins.
Defensively - let's see how GERG and the boys can tackle and make adjustments.
Indiana has not played very well. After playing 3 awful opponents, they are averaging 113 yards per game on the ground and their opponents are averaging 177. They throw the ball well, but their OL has lost a lot from last year and we may be able to get to Chappell. Our offense will probably shred that sketchy run D. Best guess is that UM wins 49-24 or so. Of course, we could lose if we play like we did against Mass.
Their defense likely sucks. I can't see IU winning this one. But those receivers, coupled with an able qb, sure were a nightmare for us last year. IU's receivers are by far the fastest we'lve seen. And, btw, I can totally understand the gum-throwing incident: Warren's game-saving int was certainly a, um, generous call. Funny, all the threads re ref conspiracies fail to note plays like that one.
Their WRs are good, but they're not faster than Notre Dame's.
And no one is accusing the Big Ten officials of conspiring, just of incompetence.
Way too high. I bet itll be under 10 by Friday. People will be betting on this one in Indiana's favor.
Indiana's rushing defense is only slightly better than Bowling Green's. They are giving up 180 ypg and slightly over 5 ypc against terrible competition. They are averaging less than 4 ypc on offense. I like this as another team that we match up well against. They will probably rush for 100 on us and throw for another 300, but we are going to massacre them on the ground. I'm thinking 300+ yards on 35-40 carries.
We have the edge in this game just because they absolutely will not be able to stop our offense. However, based on last year, their offense won't be too shabby. That being said, I think that our defense is going to start making strides in the up coming games and we're going to really start surprising people. Michigan wins in Bloomington 42 - 14! Go BLUE!!
If I were a betting man (and I am not), I would take Michigan to cover in a second. IU will have no chance to stop our rushing attack, and just when they think they might have it figured out, we'll go over the top to a wide open WR.
Of course, IU will get their yards through the air, but I don't think it will be a repeat of last season where they got well over 400 yards (467 to be exact). We had that screen pass against BG dead-to-rights, but T-Gordon missed a sure tackle. We had BG's wildcat QB stopped on 4th down, but just...didn't...wrap...up. These are teachable mistakes and ones I think will start to happen less and less...beginning with IU this weekend.
IU might be able to slow our offense down a few times, but they will have no chance at stopping us wholesale. I also like that we've gone on the road already; last season our first road game was MSU (and their entire season) with a ridiculously young team, a banged-up QB, and without our best O-lineman. We already got that road shit taken care of with ND.
My thoughts: 45-21, Michigan wins
If we rate our defense as the same as last year and our offense as significantly improved, plus add in the fact that we're on the road...
13.5's a little high I think, but the oddsmakers have to set it to get SOME action on Indiana by bettors-Overall though, I'm happy that we played a game on Saturday that impressed Vegas, let's do that again on Saturday