So the spread for Saturday's game is MICH -20. If you guys we're Mgogamblers, what would you take? IU hasn't been that impressive against inferior opponents...
this may be of some local interest
I think the Indiana D-line is going to cause some problems, especially with our O-line injuries, that will take a half to adjust to. They're not going to score like they did against EMU. It might be close to that but I would guess a 35-20 victory.
I'm staying away from this one. If they win (and I don't bet) I'll be happy no matter the score. If they win (and I do bet UM -20) and they win by 17 I'll be pissed.
If you forced me to answer... I'd take IU. I think UM wins by 14-21.
I already took Wisco -3, ND -7, and N'w -2.5
Going with all the favorites, eh jtmc33?
Va Tech +2.5 at home against da U is my best bet.
Michigan D Steps up Big 35-7
IU's offense is pathetic though...you don't think that will play into the field position game much, therefore making us much more likely to score and score often? i mean it would be different if IU is hitting a bunch of FG and a TD every now and then, but can you really see them moving the ball consistently?
Michigan is scoring 38 ppg. Indiana is scoring 26.7 ppg. Yes, we have played better competition, because of ND mostly, and the game is at the Big House, but 20 points is too much to give. We could easily end up beating them by 14-17 and you will be sorry.
I think Kirlew and Middleton will get at Tate a couple of times. I also think those receivers they have can pose some problems (three guys 6'3 and over). I'm guessing they're going to test Boubacar some. Maybe I'm giving them a little too much credit, but I think they might put up a fight, though I definitely expect Michigan to win. I wouldn't bite, though.
i'd probably stay away. The D has been suspect and twenty points is a lot.
I bet a few games each weekend and play a parlay card or two but one superstition I have always had is not to even discuss the lines in my favorite teams games.
I am a compulsive gambler and this is on my list of games to stay the heck away from. I actually almost wrote a diary about it, but figured no one would read my 20,000 words on why NOT to bet this and GT-UNC.
Anyway, if I had to take one I'd take IU, but there are too many things about both teams that scare the shit out of me. If things click, we can certainly win by 20. We could just as easily win by 2.
... I swear if I had bet against UM over the last 5 years I could retire. It seems they never cover the spread, particularly before the Big 10 season starts.
Any data on this???
I have no hard data (jamiemac probably does; I bet my gut), but under Lloyd Carr I almost always took the dog with the points, and was regularly happy about it. As Brian showed in a recent board post, Michigan has not been dominant against lesser non-conference opponents, and even when playing teams like Vandy (2006) Vegas gave us something like -17 points (which we certainly didn't cover).
That is one of the amazing things about this year under Rich Rod - we're actually beating the teams we are supposed to by more than we are supposed to. Yet another reason to stay away from the game: three games is too anomalous, but history is based on a different regime and is therefore not predictive.
when playing teams like Vandy (2006) Vegas gave us something like -17 points (which we certainly didn't cover).
We won that game 27-7.
The spread for the game was -27 points (which we certainly didn't cover).
Noise level is too loud for Indiana.
Ask jaimemac. But i think 20 is too much. They'll be able to move on our defense a little.
UM pounds it for 280 yds rushing and our D-line gets to their QB multiple times. I see a 34-13 win.
That's a pretty big spread, but the best advice I can give you is never bet for or against your team. Even the slightest homerism can defeat you. You obviously know quite a bit about Michigan that's positive, you don't know half as much about Indiana other than the normal negatives. Makes for a jaded gamble.
I'm not much of a gambler, but I've always done horribly in the office football betting against the damn Lions. You can't count on them to lose properly, either.
IU gave up 13 points to E Kentucky. 19 points to Western and 21 points to Akron's freakin backup QB. If Akron can put 21 on them, we should be able to put up 41. That means that Michigan's defense just needs to hold them to 3 touchdowns to cover the spread. 20 points might not be that bad of a spread to take. Of course, if Michigan wins by any margin I'll be happy.
20 is a retarded big number in a conference game...even if Indiana is only nominally a Big10 team. run far away from taking that.
Hehe.. wouldn't you take a 20 point spread on Vandy vs Florida?
20 is too big. Weather forecast may help keep the number low. 60% chance of a thunder storm.
Hate betting against my team, I'm not Pete Rose
On a dry day, I would say UM would win by 21. With rain in the forecast, Rivalry game the next week, (Early substitutions?) I say take the points.