Mgopoll

I say Hockey...what that wasn't a choice?  ;-)

I think football actually. 

Until our basketball team can beat top teams when we don't shoot well form 3, I don't think we can make a Final Four run. It is too difficult to jump shoot your way to a deep run, because it's hard to shoot the 3 consistently. LAtely Jordan Morgan has been a great inside presence but I'm not sure we can rely on him to win us games against Duke/Kentucky/UNC/etc.

Football, on the other hand, is set up nicely on odd-number years, when we play Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State at home. While 2013 might not go well (as far as winning a national championship) because we'll have a first-year starter at QB, this year's Alabama team showed that a good defense can take you to the top.

I'd choose Hoke, without hesitation, and not because I'm a football homer either.

I'd take a Big 10 football schedule over a Big 10 basketball schedule any day.  That and the sheer fact that to get through the NCAA tourney you need an extremely heavy dose of luck to go with your skill. 

I think the basketball team is talentwise the better and more mature of the two (if I'm going to compare apples to oranges), but the level of competition and the luck of the matchup that's prevelant in bball is just too much for me to justify saying Beilein's closer to a national championship.

Hoke in 3-5 yrs.

Like you said.  The NCAA tourney is too crazy for me to put my money on Beilein, although I think he's gonna have a very good shot at it starting....now. 

But I base this on nothing.

Football.

If you look at what Hoke is building and the type of players he's brining in (lots of size, emphasis on O-line and linebacker depth, shift in coaching philosophy to defense first, etc.), he's really following the model of teams like Bama and LSU, which has proven to be a successful model. 

It seems like actually scoring points is viewed as a secondary aspect of the game to teams like Bama and LS. When you have size and toughness like those teams do, you don't need to rely on skill position players to win you games.

I love what coach beilein has done for the program, but his system is heavily reliant on the 3-pointer, and that can be hit or miss, which can cost you in games you're supposed to win, as well as in game you need to win.

Hoke. The conference is stronger in bball than it is football. Much easier to get by the likes of Norhtwestern Minn. and Purdue etc. in football than in baketball.

I hate to put it this way, but success in football is going to depend on which Urban Meyer landed in Columbus.  

The worst-case scneario is that he is as good as he was when he won multiple national championships at Florida, and turns the talent to which he has access into a juggernaut.  If this happens, the best we can hope for as Michigan fans is splitting with Ohio from year to year.  

The best-case scenario is that Meyer rode Tim Tebow's coattails, and that he no longer has the patience nor the drive to put in the hours and work that it takes to win championships.  In this scenario, he is the coach who made a mess out of his personal life, let it affect his performance, and quit on his team twice in less than a year.

My fondest hope, and a joker factor, is that the "newer, tougher NCAA" does a real investigation in Columbus and Ohio finally gets what they deserve for their blatant and utter disregard for NCAA rules.  

Brady Hoke is a fine coach, but the "Urban Legend" version of Meyer does have two national championships under his belt.  He could be our worst nightmare, especially if he puts to rest the idiotic notion that "the spread won't work in the Big Ten." 

Either way, the game is on and the rivlary is officially back.

The job that Beilein is doing with essentially one post player and a limited bench is amazing. I can't imagine betting against Beilein when a deeper, more athletic roster arrives.

Of course, that same point can be made for Hoke and Co.

We are blessed fellas. Let the good times roll.

The way recruiting has gone this year and last year, I can see football winning a national title sooner. This team is being built like Alabama and is going to be loaded with NFL prospects. Call me crazy, I think with a senior Devin Gardner we are playing for a national title, I think teams win it when you least expect it. If they don't that year, by Shanes Sophmore they will be serious contenders and his Junior year they should be an unstoppable force.

I would think that football would be the obvious answer after an 11-2, BCS game winning season, but a football season is too difficult to navigate without an off-day.  Everyone that is a Michigan critic likes to point out that even Bo never had a national championship (although it did not seem to stop him from becoming a legend, but that is a different post).

That being said, I think basketball, and for one reason - the one and done rule.  I have a feeling that the class we are getting next year will stay for at least two years.  I just think McGary will stay beyond one year to develop his game against talent that won't discourage him on a nightly basis (on a rhetorical note, how many early draft candidates took years - if ever - to develop in the NBA because of the talent discrepancy?).  As a result, in two years, it is possible to have a lineup of Morgan, THJ (although it might be asking a lot to get 4 years out of him), McGary, Robinson, Stauskas, Smotrycz, Brundidge and/or Burke.  That is a solid line-up top-to-bottom that is not entirely 3-point reliant.  That is just the type of experience line-up to beat the one-and-done laden teams that seem to make deep tournament runs only to lose when matched up against comparable teams with more experience.

After the Northwestern game yesterday, they showed a stat saying this was Michigan's longest Big Ten winning streak since 2006. We are on a 4 game Big Ten winning streak. Winning six straight required for a national championship? A lot needs to go your way. Beilein has us in a great position to be in a favorable spot in the tournament, but winning it will always be a huge challenge. I think football comes first, but both are in a great position going forward.

Football, because Hoke poops magic.  If Beilein pooped Magic it would be basketball but this is not the case.  Football will be in 2016 or 2017.

I'll go with Beilen, mainly because I think we could next year. We lose Novak and Douglass, which is huge mainly with the intangibles, but we have two potential 5 star talents coming in. The roster we have next year will Beilen's most talented at Michigan, and I defintely think it should be talented enough to make a run to the NC.

After the 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes are up to college speed, and Morris is in his second year playing, and we have a favorable home schedule--that's our best shot.  We'll have a dominant defense by then, the key to winning it all (as we saw in 1997), plus a dominant OL. 

Hoke and Meyer are quickly separating themselves from the rest of the Big Ten pack. I think the odds are better when Michigan is one of the two dominant programs in your conference. Belein certainly looks like he is making Michigan a major player in the Big Ten, but there are too many good basketball programs for a NC to seem more likely  

Div 1 football - 120 teams

Div 1 basketball > 300 teams

This isn't a totally scientific way of looking at it, but naturally more teams to compete with means that it is inherently harder to win the NC in basketball.  Factor that in with a requirement of winning 5 games in a row at the end of the year, and I think Hoke has a much better chance at winning an NC than Beilein

We beat a rebuilding Alabama defense, scrape out a win vs. ND, only lose to an undefeated OSU in the Big Ten, then clobber someone in the Championship game. We are 12-1 with a win over SEC champ Alabama and get to the BCS Championship game vs. undefeated USC. DENARD goes crazy in his final game as all the hype has Barkley and USC crushing us. We win the NC!

One game playoff.

Hockey then basketball then football.

But maybe it'll be all 3!

There is so much more margin for error in basketball.  I think the fact that the Big 10 is such a tough basketball conference is a little off base.  That only matters to the extent that you need to get into the tournament, but its not like you have to win your conference, or even come particularly close to get in, and once you are in, all bets are off.  Look at UCONN last year, they were .500 in conference play.  Whereas in football a Big 10 team is almost always going to need to be undefeated to get a spot in the title game.

In basketball. You don't win a National Championship by going undefeated in the conference. 

I'd say football, because we seem to be recruiting at a base where we'll be up there year in and year out.  The conference doesn't seem to be getting tougher, so I can see a lot of years where the game between Michigan and OSU (and then the wrench in the plan...the B10 title game) Could leave at least a 1 loss team looking for a spot in the game.

Basketball recruiting is getting to that level if can continue to come close to what we're doing next year, but with the early exits it's harder to have a talent base EVERY year that gives you a shot (If Burke leaves this year, what shot do we have next? If McGary goes after next year, do we really have a 2014 shot?).  Very few programs can reload with NBA type players coming in to replace those guys who leave early. Your Kentucky, Duke types.  So you're cutting out a lot of years of opportunity for a program like Michigan....maybe half as many shots, optimistically.

Now if you were going to ask me what's going to happen first, going to the National Championship game or going to the Final Four, I might bet on basketball.  Because the Tourney style does let a lot of underdogs get there...but really, it's been awhile since a true Cinderella won it.

 I don't think we're national title contenders in basketball this year. The BCS national title is played in January next year & the Final Four is in April, therefore I'll say football.

but I would bet that of all the Varsity Sports: Softball wins the next NC.