Could not agree more with Misopogon. Well said.
Could not agree more with Misopogon. Well said.
But I feel it is necesary to defend the OP here. First, I found it funny.
I find it hard to believe that any reader of these very pages (HT: THE_KNOWLEDGE) seriously believes the ridiculous statement that you are imagining upon the OP here.
If they do, then the writers of this blog are terrible teachers.
I think, in comedy, stretching things a bit to make something more ridiculous is pretty standard. Also, I think, the object of the joke is not supposed to take every little thing as a personal attack.
I believe all of the following to be true:
1.) Kenpom is one of the best predictors of college basketball outcomes, though this does not mean he is particularly good, just better than most.
2.) Kenpom bases his predictions on MOV.
3.) The OP knows 1 and 2 to be true.
4.) Kenpom is less accurate than Vegas, but Vegas makes its predictions based on an averaging of many, many, informed opinions. This accounts (at least more) completely for things like gritty grits, hot streaks, and the Illini quitting on their coach.
5.) Kenpom, and the OP, know 4 to be true.
6.) It was a joke, and the OP doesn't hate you, kenpom, or Brian. Relax.
toward the team in general. Once drained of his old emo--which tended to lift his diaries for me--his stancetoward the bball squad gets a little tired, especially since his hoops writing is less incisive (value judgement, yes, but shared). Once you've stated that the team lacks talent/is playing with house money more than twice you are doing something more than coldly calculating, whether you claim to be basing your posts in the data or not. And cold calculation is for cold calculators, who are definitionally distinct from fans. It's a fine line, and I would assume that if you write here you want to ply both sides.
Shorter version: the OP resonated for at least some of us. I have made similar pleas to keep the players respectfully in the picture, since they are our schoolmates, including the other day when Brian maligned some kids' contribution. I get that analysis requires criticism; thankfully, as the OP points out, there is also a reason why we play the games.
Fact-founded closing observation: if Hardaway and Lobsterycz are hitting throughout as they were at the start and beginning of the season we are there with everyone else statistically, on D AND O. MSU and OSU are both fairly one-dimensional teams, TOO, as recent lapses have shown (though Ravenel is coming on); MSU is arguably less flexible on offense than Michigan. I'll keep rooting lustily for my guys, and maybe find it harder to get so excited about the wins once the squad is full of highly ranked players.
a little over the top, but i enjoyed it. frankly i'm scratching my head about how anybody could misunderstand what he's saying.
but just think it's a really dumb argument that ignores the existence of luck and variance.
That's what he's mocking about it...
I understand what you're trying to say, but this is kinda dumb. No one is trying to take away anything from what the team accomplished. They came, they saw, they are going to hang up a banner in Crisler. That being said, if you're trying to PREDICT what will happen in the future, then it's a good idea to look at how those wins/losses occured, which is what KenPom does. This doesn't mean Kentucky will win the Title because it has the best efficiency numbers, it just means it's the most likely result. Even if UK were 99% favs in round one and then 90% favs in every subsequent round, they would still only have a 58% chance of winning the title. Obviously UK wouldn't be that huge favorites in every game so their chances are even slimmer. Saying that UM has gotten a bit lucky in winning the coin flip games (NW twice in OT, one point win over MSU, @Purdue) doesn't detract from the fact that they won them. It does mean that should the same situation arrive in another close game (I.e the NCAAs) there's a chance it might not go their way.
to Dylan's B1G Tourney preview at umhoops. Sometimes the fact that it's your school, that you love the players, rooting for the underdog--old-fashioned dumb stuff like that--tends to get a little lost in the shuffle.
I'm to the point with bball and football, happily, where I'm just happy with the coaching staffs, believe they're upright and going to field competitive teams, and not demanding that ten wins a year they strung up Lloyd for failing to obtain (being second-winningest active Div I coach with more than ten years was not enough*). Probably a function of increasing age. OR there may be a point when it's better for the fan to get outside and obtain a little exercise themselves.
*yeah, he's now on my shit list, too; but one BECOMES a grumpy old man--you are not born one
P.S. I got where you were headed with the post immediately; but you should probably signpost the thing a little bit better, as the English instructors say
Having a 10 year old reminds me that it is good to be a positve fan. My son is always going to root for the team, and has tons of hope. I know that Michigan is limited athletically and length wise, but they are my team, and I want to see them win.
In a way, it is actually especially nice to root for Michigan THIS year. Every game they win is a blessing. They are playing with "house money" after the first game in the Big 10 Tourney, and after the first two games in the NCAA tourney. If they win, because of superior defense, and shooting, and offensive schemes, it is a wonderful thing.
I am old enough to remember watching both the 1989 & 1992 NCAA tournaments. In 1989, we were a three seed and the underdog in three games (vs. UNC, Illinois, & Seton Hall.) In 1992, we were a six seed, and the underdog in four games (vs. Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, & Duke.)
Michigan will be favored in the first weekend, but after that, they have a decent likelihood of being an underdog. Anything they do will be overachieving. From next year on, with a higher level of star power, there will be greater expectations on Michigan to win. That isn't a bad thing, and I'll be happy with that too. But the fact that Michigan is here where they are, in 2012, with this team, is something. When I think of the team, I have a goofy smile on my face. It is wonderful just to enjoy, and celebrate. Beilein has alluded to this himself, how he has allowed himself to sit back and enjoy the accomplishments of the team, because they won't always happen. This is truly a magical season.
Ten year olds are great. Sunday my son and I watched Michigan beat Penn State and then tuned into Ohio/MSU. His reaction when Buford drained that jumper was tremendous, both arms up in the air, jumping around the room, yelling. Its funny, he's not concerned with recruiting like me, he just wants his team to win now. Its great watching that. It reminds you of why you fell in love with it in the first place.
Shane Morris would like a word with your son. 18-10=8, this means he has 8 years to develop relationships with future MANBALL players..to the twitters!!
doesn't mean it wasn't the best team.
Stop making sense. There is no room for that kind of thing here!
So, if I'm understanding the OP correctly, your thesis is:
"We need to play the games because statistics can't predict everything correctly. Also, since math can't predict outcomes perfectly, it's useless as a tool to help make predictions."
1. Thanks for the profound statement that Kenpom doesn't predict with 100% certainty.
2. I'd much rather have analysis in the pregame writeups that include statistics rather than your typical WWL talking head or Freep hack making shit up based on his gut. If that's the analysis you want, it's not hard to find.
3. If this was a way more intense response than you intended, sorry. Kind of like the Saban letter, needs MOAR funny.
Having wrote the Nick Saban letter, I can handle the critique that as satire, it needed to be more funny.
What scares me about it and this post is how many people think it was real.
Seriously people? You do know that the news report on Saturday Night Live isn't real, don't you?
You shouldn't be scared, nobody thinks its real. They just think it is not funny and disagree with the writers perspective.
MGoSatire. I like it.
FWIW. I enjoyed this. Although I wasn't sure what I was reading at first, the title was pretty clear it was going to be farcical.
Related question about my bracket: if I'm picking Kentucky to win it all, should I write "Kentucky" or skip ahead a few years and write "VACATED"?
But I want to give you more than +1 for this. So, +1,000!
A bit over-the-top, but I agree with the general point. Not everything can be precisely quantified.
So in one sentence this entire thing breaks down as: In a bet of Kentucky vs. the field you're taking the field. Brilliant!
Advanced Metrics are useful, but not perfect. Satire is funny, even when the position it's arguing for isn't as strong as the position it's arguing against. Everything's fine.
Everyone is overanalyzing this. The OP's point is that we should play the tournament before crowning a champion because that is the current format of NCAA basketball. Would it be more reliable to pick the best team by using advanced metrics accumulated over a long regular season? Probably, but it wouldn't be nearly as much fun.
Not to rush to Brian's defense or anything but I think everyone was operating under the general understanding that games are not won/loss on paper. Isn't that a given not worth discussing? However, I'm definitely using the Kenpom ranking to help with my brackets!
I don't know if I would have commented if so many people weren't so slow to make the connection; I thought it was obvious... but I support the orignal post and think its funny...
Clear Eyes, funny post, good stuff, but don't get to full of yourself just yet. Try this again tomorrow and you will likely regress to the mean. Your posts' ability to strike a chord with the audience is fraught with variance and luck, but I thought you dug deep this one time and pulled off a clutch performance.
This thread is too smart for you.
It wasn't absurdly submitted as a diary like M-Dog's atrocity was. MOVE IT TO THE BOARD!
Every time I read a post like this, I think to myself, "Self, if there was a MgoBlog user poker tournament, you'd make a lot of money."