MGoApology: My 2nd Notre Dame thread

Personally, only one game is on my mind. That game is vs. UCONN on September 4th.

One game at a time.

Go Blue.

OK, but our backs and receivers don't look much worse:

WR/TE: Hemingway 3* or 4* (depends on the site), Stonum 4*, Stokes 4*, Robinson (both) 4*, Roundtree 4*, Gallon 4*, Koger 4*, Webb 4*

 RB: Shaw 4*, Toussaint 4*, Cox and Smith both high 3*. 

Probably comparable at receiver/tight end, maybe a little lacking at RB but still strong.  Remember, Lloyd had the chance to offer Jonas Gray, but he gave the offer to Mike Cox instead.  I don't care about star rating, that speaks volumes. 

But don't get too caught up on the stars, I know they are good predictors, but only to an extent.  Omameh might be one of our best OL and he was a 2 star, Molk and Odoms should be two of our better offensive players and they were both 3 stars.  Also, Adam Patterson and Michael Williams were both 4 stars and neither of them might even see the field on a defense that isn't super great.

It does look like all signs point to ND having a pretty good offense this year. Size and experience wise, it's going to be a tough matchup for the secondary - Floyd 6'3, Rudolph 6'6 and Kamara 6'5 and they have been around for a few years and Rudolph and Floyd clearly have all-america talent - Floyd has something like 16 TDs in 18 career games.

I really hope GERG tries to get the linebackers active blitzing early because ND has 2 new tackles and I remember their interior OL looking really confused dealing with the blitz the last couple years.

Also Kelly likes to try and score quickly, so our offense needs to help the D out and sustain some long drives and keep the ball out of their hands too. That's going to be key.

Other than stubhub, anyone know where I can get tickets for this one?  The Michigan ticket office had them a couple of years ago, but when I inquired about this year, they stated that they would not be getting any!

1. While Chryst looks like a good one, he has virtually no experience playing.   So we have new system, no experience in system, coming off ACL surgery.    It might take a game or 2 before he's carving up the NCAA.

2. OL is young

3. D has new system...db's blow, dl is undersized and thin.

I agree this game is scary because it is a crucial swing game, but they are not 05 USC just yet.  We'll score on them, it will come down to Chryst and Floyd vs Gerg and Woolfolk.

MGoUser Irish will notice this thread and make a fair and rational comment

Two issues with this post:

1. 3 games are key to us winning 7-8 games this year? Thats kind've a dumb statement, since any 3 games bring a team from 4-8 to 7-5. Thats true every year for every team that "3 games" make a ton of difference. One game making the difference and I buy the momentum theory but 3 games and you might as well say 12 games are key.

2. My main reason for confidence is our win last year. There are reasons why it will be easier and harder this year, but I think the reasons it will be easier outweigh the reasons it will be harder.

Harder Point 1: ND has a coaching upgrade. But you really need to ask yourself if Brian Kelly is really THAT amazing of a coach. Dont let the media hype fool you, his 12-0 Bearcats got absolutely torched in the bowl game. Florida couldve put up 100 on them if they were trying in the second half. He was a dominant Big East coach but until you prove it in the SEC, Pac-10, Big 10, or Big 12 you aren't a proven coach. Even the ACC is relatively meaningless these days.

Harder Point 2: It's at ND instead of at the Big House. Homefield advantage is pretty significant in college so this shouldn't be ignored.

Easier Point 1: ND lost 2 of its 3 best players by far on offense last year. I know Crist is super hyped on ESPN etc. but the reality is that he is unlikely to come in and produce at the same level of a Clausen junior year. Since they had a healthy Floyd against us last year their WR corps will only be worse. Whoever they plug in to replace Golden Tate will not be as good either on the field or at diving into the MSU marching band.

Easier Point 2: Don't underestimate what a year of experience will do for both Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. I'm on the record as not a particularly big Forcier fan, and have been known to write in my diary I stole from a 12-year-old girl and watch Twilight, however I have never doubted his ability as a football player. The guy can play, and Denard has shown obvious improvement as well. If Fleming's jockstrap is still on the field from Tate burning him last year, then I think Robinson would probably bend the space-time continuum and put Rudy's jockstrap on the field this year.

Wash Point: Both our secondaries are questionable at best. We lost some good defensive players, but ND's defense isnt any good either. I think it basically comes down to who has the better offense and I trust Tate/Denard to pull this out more than I trust an unproven Crist despite his hype. It could turn out that Crist is the next Sam Bradford but until he actually proves it, I'm going with our guys. And week 1 will not change that opinion either way (35-0 against Nevada last year didnt save ND from us).

This line still baffles me, -3 I could see. Purdue opens up with them in South Bend (3:30 est) I cannot access any gambling sites at work can someone please tell me the P/S for the PUR/ND game.

 I just don’t see ND holding anything back against PUR like they would vs. a cupcake, so I'm sure UM have a good game tape for their match-up. At first glance:

 -New QB (bum knee)in a new system and it’s a PUR like passing spread am I right? (so a running QB is not a great treat).

 -Questionable OL, I'm sure there all high ranked kids but without being a experienced/gelled unit I don't care who's running or throwing the rock, that’s a huge red flag.

 -3 years 3 D Coordinators, C. Brown/J. Tenuta/B. Diaco plus there is a depth gap that will/should be exploited in 2ed half of games. We all know the pains of this.

Now to all, I'm the ultimate pessimistic bastard, I worried until the seconded half of the Delaware St. Game. The above points are for the OP, and I'm already on the baby aspirin regimen for the UCONN game and I am a healthy adult. I've said before its sad to know how I'm going to die but it's what I love.       

EDIT: sorry Ziff72 looks like were on the same page, I still would like to know the PUR/ND point spread if anyone has it.

In Darth Vadar voice.

This one's really easy to break down.  Both offenses will be good and put up a fair share of points.  Whichever defense steps up, makes a few stops and/or gets turnovers wins.

and who missed spring practice has to be a major conern for ND.  It's defense was bad (like Michigan's) last year.  New coaches, new system.  I don't see how ND can get hyped as much as it does.  ND is a tough place for Michigan to win, but this is an important, winnable swing game.

Kelly doesn't really use RBs. There was some stat like his RBs rarely get over 10 carries a game. ND has a really good receiving corps, so I am worried about our secondary and LBs getting burned by TEs. But I don't think ND's defense is that good, and Crist is no Clausen, at least yet.

...when I read this:

Even after three years building up the Michigan roster, Rodriguez would probably exchange skill players with Notre Dame in a heartbeat.

Yeah, Spath, if he's as concerned about star ratings as you are and ignores scheme when considering personnel like you are.  I would never trade skill guys with ND at this point.  Who would run the zone read?  A dropback QB coming of ACL surgery?  Who would be slots?  All those outside WR/Michael Floyd types?  Very poor analysis and comment by Spath.

Dude, you need Jesus. Wait, on second thought... maybe you don't. Actually, you need this:

Have faith. This year we will Freak. Stuff. Up. (PG-13)

or is Armando Allen in his ~ 14th year of eligibility?  It seems like he's been around forever.

than anyone running a different offense at MI would have been. ND's offense requires very similar talent to the W. Coast offense run under Weis. Their qb doesn't have to be as mobile as does the run oriented spread teams.

I do agree, no matter which offense you run, any qb needs experience to be exceptional. The need here can be mitigated greatly if surrounded by talented,experienced players, i.e., Leach, Henson, but as pointed out, ND is infusing a lot of new players into its offense this season. I'd expect a lot of 3 step drops much like USC ran against us in the '04 RB, but I think their running game will be made up largely of quick draws and counter action.

I also think the Irish players will play to a much higher level, because they're now playing under a coach who, more than likely, they  have much greater faith in than Weis. This is almost the exact opposite scenario than UM faced in RR' s first season, when even our veteran DL didn't play to expectations.

I don't really feel the paragraph immediately above is relevant to the UM/ND contest this season because UM's roster is now made up of players  who definitely believe in RR, most specifically the offensive side of the ball. I just pointed out the above because I  think it will serve ND well over the entire season.

As one who has been around for a number of years, I think Dark Blue's post could be true in any given season. Strange things happen in that stadium and they almost often benefit the Irish.