MBB: Who is Leaving the B1G after 2011?
In 2010-11, the Big Ten has proven to be one of the toughest conferences in basketball. One factor heavily contributing to the high level of competition in the conference is the veteran presence on most teams. The conference's talent level could fall significantly next year resulting from the graduation/draft entry of a number of its largest contributors. Lets look at who is, and who might be leaving (*) the Big Ten this year.
Ohio State
David Lighty (Sr)
John Diebler (Sr)
Dallas Lauderdale (Sr)
* William Buford (Jr)
* Jared Sullinger (Fr)
Purdue
JaJuan Johnson (Sr)
E'Twaun Moore (Sr)
Wisconsin
Jon Leuer (Sr)
Kevin Nankivil (Sr)
Illinois
Demetri McCamey (Sr)
Mike Tisdale (Sr)
Mike Davis (Sr)
Michigan State
Kalin Lucas (Sr)
Durrell Summers (Sr)
Penn State
Taylor Battle (Sr)
Andrew Jones (Sr)
Jeff Brooks (Sr)
David Jackson (Sr)
Minnesota
Al Nolen (Sr)
Blake Hoffarber (Sr)
* Ralph Sampson III (Jr)
Northwestern
Michael Thompson (Sr)
Indiana
Jeremiah Rivers (Sr)
Iowa
Jaryd Cole (Sr)
It appears that the conference could be up for grabs next season. One noteworthy observation, is the amount of size being lost from the conference. Size has proven to be Michigan's biggest matchup, so the graduation of polished post players such as JuJuan Johnson or the draft entry of Jared Sullinger could balance the playing field when we run our smaller lineup. Michigan is in a great position, considering they lose no one to graduation and return a unit that finished the second half of the Big Ten schedule strong. I apologize in advance if I missed anyone. Your thoughts?
February 28th, 2011 at 11:02 PM ^
I apologize in advance if I missed anyone.
Nebraska?
February 28th, 2011 at 11:28 PM ^
In other words, no, no one worth mentioning has been forgotten.
February 28th, 2011 at 11:15 PM ^
Penn State and Illinois are going to be terrible.
February 28th, 2011 at 11:29 PM ^
That was my thought too. Good heavens they're gonna be bad.
February 28th, 2011 at 11:53 PM ^
McCamey, Davis and Tisdale are overated...such a waste of talent. Actually i think their whole team is a waste of talent.
But they have a lot of it.
Richardson and Paul can score. Richmond is a legit NBA prospect and could break out next year. And their recruiting class is good (something we'd be salivating over if it was us but most opposing team fans don't know the composition of others' recruiting classes).
I don't like Weber as a coach, but he has enough talent to win in a down year in the big ten.
Penn State, OTOH, will be gastly.
Wisconsin could be quite bad for once as well if Jordan Taylor leaves. They always seem to replace departing guys with redshirted veterans... but i dont think Ryne Evans and that douche Brusewicz can carry a team.
Honestly, Michigan and OSU might be the faves next year
Illinois will definitely still be good. They'll be younger, but the class they're bringing in is very good - four 4-star players at four different positions. Not all of them will be freshman stars, but I bet 2 of them are B1G starter quality. Combine that with the talent they return and they'll compete for the league championship.
EDIT: Of the four Illinois players coming in this year, they are rated #36, #50, #58 and #93 in the country by Rivals. By comparison, Brundidge and Burke are #104 and #136, respectively. Illinois doesn't exactly have the Fab Five coming in, but that's a very good group of freshmen, and they will contribute.
Agreed.
This is the second time I've heard people on this board say Illinois will be terrible, but I agree with Nick. McCamey, Davis and Tisdale are soft and overrated.
The elite talent on that team is young, and they have a good class coming in.
I also think MSU is still very talented. They might just need a "reboot".
It'll be interesting to see if Indiana can finally stop sucking.
I think the top 4 will be OSU, UM, MSU and Illinois... not necesarily in that order. It's hard to discount Purdue and Wisconsin, since they're so well coached, but they do lose a lot.
If Sullinger and Buford come back, I think they're the runaway favorite. If one of those 2 come back, they might still be a slight favorite. Buford, Craft and Thomas and a bunch of talented freshmen could be enough to win the B1G.
February 28th, 2011 at 11:16 PM ^
Whole starting 5?
OSU only plays 6 guys. Aaron Craft (Freshman PG) is the only one left.
Deshaun Thomas, a freshman forward, gets some minutes for them too
February 28th, 2011 at 11:18 PM ^
a similar conclusion (unless that was on a different site). And I would have to agree. We should be right in the thick of things. Then again, last year we were below average and we lost over 60% of our team scoring (Harris, Sims, Gibson, Lucas-Perry & Wright) and we came back stronger this year. So, you never know.
February 28th, 2011 at 11:24 PM ^
I assume that OSU will reload with another class of top recruits (does anyone else wonder how they keep doing that?). It will be impossible to replace all of those guys, but they also have some talented young guys playing this year and I suspect they will still be tough.
Even if Robbie Hummel comes back strong next year, you have to assume Purdue takes a big step back.
At this point no one should count out Wisconsin since Bo Ryan has proven to be a stellar coach regardless of the talent.
Illinois and Penn State will likely be awful. Minnesota has been in disarray for two years and there's talk of Tubby Smith leaving. Iowa, Northwestern and Indiana will improve, but probably not a ton.
That is indeed a wide open field. You have to like our chance. If Smotrycz can become a regular contributor and they find some viable bench minutes from Horford and the incoming freshmen this could be a solid contender of a team.
The other wild card is MSU. What are they going to do next season after such a mess of a year? Do both Roe and Green come back? Who steps up to score points for them? Let's start their tumble into mediocrity this weekend with a huge win!!
February 28th, 2011 at 11:58 PM ^
with Hardaway's emergence, the teams biggest need ( a secondary shot creator) has been filled.
The next biggest need is defense at the 4 position. That spot has been killing us for the last 3 years (against teams that can take advantage of it).
Novak is too small and Smotrycz is too slow and doesnt rotate well or think instinctively on D yet. If Smot learns to play D enought that he isn't a liability, Michigan could be lethal on offense next year.
Unless Horford becomes a good three point shooter and learns how to put the ball on the floor in the offseason, he isn't going to see many minutes at the 4 next year.
As a four, being a good three point shooter to space the floor for our center is more important than being tall in this offense. Horford is our backup center.
Agreed. I think Horford is the next guy most likely to make a big year-to-year improvement, like Morris this year.
Where required for defense I wouldn't be surprised to see Horford playing some center with Morgan at the 4.
the b10 defs having a transition year, but u cant count out Wiscosin and MSU tho talent doesnt seem there the coaching always gets it done.
Illinois has 4 ESPN top 100 recruits coming in next year. #77 Miycheal Henry (6'6'' SF), #79 Mike Shaw (6'8'' PF), #84 Nnanna Egwu (6'10'' C), #87 Tracy Abrams (6'1'' PG).
Not exactly a Kentucky or Ohio State level class, but enough to elevate them above "awful."
One more: Minnesota's Trevor Mbakwe might go pro.
wonderful.
Jordan Taylor?
Yes please!
Does David Lighty get the Brooks Bollinger Award for eight years of eligibility? Seriously, it seems like the guy has been there forever.
Zack Novak next year but he's OUR ZACK NOVAK!!!!!
MSU - Mike Kebler. I can't believe they are at this point, but he has started the last 3 or 4 games. Their backcourt depth next year will be super thin.
It will be interesting to see how they stack up in basketball. They are currently 18-11, and have recieved a bit of talk as being a "bubble" team - in the loosely defined sense that Penn State is a bubble team - but that was obviously in the Big 12.
They have key wins against Texas and Texas A & M, but they have lost to Davidson & Iowa State. Really they were not a bad team at all this year and they will more than likely be in the NIT.
A quick glance at their roster reveals that the only key contributor that will be leaving is leading scorer & senior PG Lance Jeter, who averages just over 11 ppg.
Although to be fair I haven't even watched them play. This is just a few quick numbers for your reference...
I think the Big 12 is an underrated basketball conference. Kansas is a top 10 program. Texas is right behind them. Frank Martin's made KState into a solid program. A&M has been good for a few years. Missouri's there. Baylor's stepped up the last couple of years.
This year I'm not sure it's that far behind the Big 10 - mainly because some of the big 10 teams have been really hurt by injuries and/or not living up to expectations. After OSU, Purdue and Wisky you've got a bunch of teams scrambling on the bubble. MSU has been a major disappointment this year. I think Illinois has underacheived in regards to their preseason expectations. The gophers have struggled quite a bit since they got some injuries. Northwestern and IU lost key players to injuries and their seasons kind of fell apart.
Robbie Hummel is probably worth mentioning here as well.
Hummel is not going to leave. He just blew out his knee. He has to prove to people he is back first.
In fact, ESPN showed Hummel doing a light workout on the court before the game and talking about how he would be back next year.
Columbus is that Sullinger is going to stay at least another year. It is a bad year for players to leave early, because of the CBA situation in the NBA.
Also, he and his family don't need the money. Another thing they are bragging about is a 6'8" PG/SG from Alabama or Mississippi (I only half listen to my OSU friends sometimes), that is supposed to be a great all around player.
Don't be too certain they'll have issues with guard depth. Their incoming class of 4 has 3 guards and a 5-star SF (#13 in the country), plus they'll be getting class of 2010 SF Russell Byrd (who Beilein was after fairly hard) back from injury.
Losing Summers is probably addition by subtraction at this point, and one would think Payne has to take a huge step forward.
Add that to the media loving virtual intercourse with Izzo and they'll be considered among the early contenders for the conference title still.
I additionally agree with all who discount Illinois.
Finally, don't overlook Indiana. They're scrappy and they only lose that douche Rivers, while bringing in Zeller, the 20th ranked HS player in the country, 6'11" of him.
Expecting frosh to step in right away at the most important position - PG - is always a crapshoot. Morris wasn't ready last year and it absolutely killed us.
Bo Spencer Sr.
Matt Karn Sr.
Drake Beranek Sr.
Lance Jeter Sr.
Plus there are 4 juniors.
All of these seniors are guards which probaly means they will be thin there. I may be wrong.
The guards on nebraska that are leaving average about 4 points a game combined one hasnt played yet this season due to injury me thinks.
Without study or being an expert, I'm guessing Wisky is still there, while Purdue takes a step back. Wisconsin is the template for Michigan. Recruit to your system and roll the classes so you're always experienced. Iowa and Indiana will be better. The thing about the Big 10 that I think sets them apart from other conferences is that there are no gimmies, at least on the road. It get that it's not exactly something to brag about --- "our bottom quarter is better than your bottom quarter" --- but I think it's relevant. Maybe PSU will be so bad that everyone pencils in a win at their place, but that will be the only one.
Looks like Illinois, Purdue and OSU are gonna be gutted. And who at MSU that is coming back can even begin to replace Lucas? If Horford can put on 20 pounds in the offseason and be a shot-blocking presence, and Smotrycz attends Dale Carnegie and quits being so damn timid, winning the B10 should be a goal.
I'm working on a project that I'll send to an admin after the National Title Game.
Basics -
POPRAG (created by a dude over at The Only Colors) end of season ranks for every player in the Big 10/Nebraska that played at least 30% of available minutes.
Taking those ranks and determining what teams are bringing/back and losing as far as players go.
Looking at top 100 recruits who don't make the 30% cut over the past 3 years and extrapolating predicted performance based on similarly-ranked recruits. Example: Ohio State has the #1 PF in the class of 2010 (SO). How did #1 PF's fare in POPRAG fare in their second year?
Drawbacks -
Doesn't take into account defense (both individual and team) or grittiness (NOVAK!).
Obviously, the #1 ranked PF in 2011 could be a completely different player than the #1 ranked PF in 2009 (more minutes Freshman year, more touches, banger vs perimeter player, etc.)
Hopefully it'll work out.
EDIT: Sending it to an admin, because it'll be an Excel spreadsheet and I'm not quite sure on the formatting.
"We're going to be exponentially better in our fifth and sixth years..."