MBB vs. Illinois/NIT chances

Submitted by goblue16 on

Great way to end the season. This team showed waves of improvement as the season progressed. Always fun to beat up the Illini. Looking forward anyone know our NIT chances?? Who should we rout for in the mid majors? Enjoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvliDu5tESs

 

GoBluePhil

March 14th, 2015 at 2:42 PM ^

So that helps Michigan. There are about 4 more games to be played that impact Michigan. If the favorites win we should be in. Michigan is projected as a 6 seed in two different brackets right now.

Tater

March 14th, 2015 at 2:47 PM ^

Michigan is playing some decent ball right now.  They are good enough to beat any NIT-caliber team.  They would definitely be the "bubble" team that nobody wants to play.

LSAClassOf2000

March 14th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^

This one is sort of interesting - here's BracketMatrix with their latest projection - LINK

On this one, we're a #7 going against Stanford, and if we won this one, either Vanderbilt or Murray State would face us at that point. The #1 teams on this NIT projection are UCLA, Tulsa, Miami (FL) and Texas A&M, and Tulsa is the #1 they placed in our little corner of their bracket. 

michelin

March 14th, 2015 at 3:11 PM ^

As noted in the "let's go Albany" thread below, that bracket does not reflect March 13 games.  Our game vs. wisc may not hurt us, especially if wisc is a #1 NCAA seed.  I am not sure about the effects of the other games.  However, we could fall 4-7 places and still make the NIT according to your bracket.  Also, it seems to suggest UM was the top #7 seed, so our margin of safety could be closer to 7 places than 4.

Leaders And Best

March 14th, 2015 at 3:29 PM ^

Their projection was not updated to include Louisiana Tech, NC Central, and UC Davis who are all eligible for NIT automatic bids after losing yesterday. Adding those three teams would make Michigan the first team left out of the NIT right now.

I personally think they have Minnesota a little high right now, and Michigan's chances are going to hinge on whether they can sneak in ahead of Minnesota as the second Big Ten team into the NIT. I don't think it is going to happen. I broke this down on the earlier thread today on the Michigan's NIT rooting interests. There are 22 at large bids left at this time (could become less if more automatic bids are needed) and about 12 to 17 teams that look pretty much like at large locks. It doesn't look good.

Leaders And Best

March 14th, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^

All four #8 seeds in their NIT projection have automatic bids. The lowest at-large teams in their bracket are Michigan, Tennessee, and Arizona State. You would take those 3 teams out and put the new 3 automatic bid teams in. If their current projection holds, Michigan would then be out unless we moved above one of the #6 seed at-large seeds (Memphis, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Harvard).

michelin

March 14th, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^

It seems then that our hopes rest on

1. Hoping several NIT teams currently listed in the bracket actually make the NCAAs (eg Tulsa by winning the AAC tourney)--also hoping they do not displace current NCAA bubble teams and send them instead to the NIT.

2. Other current NIT teams fall out (eg possibly Harvard by losing the Ivy title to Yale today); and

3. Hoping the NIT committee considers factors that the Bracket Matrix left out---like the upside in UM's very recent performance, the downside in others' performance, and the possibility that UM could get back walton (if that is indeed possible).

Leaders And Best

March 14th, 2015 at 4:10 PM ^

1. If Tulsa makes the NCAA Tournament, they will just knock another NCAA bubble team like Indiana to the NIT. It will have no effect on Michigan making the NIT and actually probably hurts Michigan more than it helps. Any bubble teams Tulsa knocks out of the NCAA Tournament is probably going to have a better resume than Tulsa.

2. The loser of the Harvard-Yale game is probably going to make the NIT. Just my guess. Yale and Harvard have similar resumes so I don't think there is any team for Michigan to root for in this game.

3. Walton hasn't played so the committee will probably treat that like he is unlikely to return. And the committee will consider the fact that LeVert is out for Michigan as well. Devil's advocate: We are 5-9 without LeVert, and 4-8 without Walton. So I am not sure the intangibles argument helps Michigan.

The only thing that will help Michigan odds (if there is any chance left and I think that is a serious question at this point) is to have no more NIT at large spots taken up by automatic bids. This means needing Georgia State, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, and Montana to win their conference tournaments. I think Montana is a team in particular that is in danger of an upset tonight. They are playing their conference tournament at home, but E. Washington looks like the better team on paper. I don't think the MAC Championship is going to make a difference as Buffalo has a pretty strong resume for an NIT at large bid, but I guess you might as well root for CMU in the small chance Michigan could leapfrog Buffalo.

michelin

March 14th, 2015 at 4:38 PM ^

2 of the teams above us, in the march 12-based bracket, Memphis and UTEP both lost yesterday.  Although UM did too, Memphis did not lose to a #1 NCAA seed.  Also, the UTEP loss was particularly bad.  I'd be surprised if they do not fall below us; and currently we only need to move up one place--that is, if no additional spots are taken.

The intangibles argument that could help UM is very recent performance.  Suppose Illinois becomes a #1-2 seed in the NIT.  UM won the season series, alsoi just blew them out by nearly 20 points, so how could UM be worse than a #7-8 seed in the NIT?

I agree that Yale will probably be ahead of UM in the NIT bracket--if only because they were previously projected as an NCAA team.  But even before their loss to Harvard, they were 18 spots below UM in the Sagarin rankings.

Leaders And Best

March 14th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^

First, you are running on the assumption that the Bracket Project's seeding of NIT teams is accurate which is most likely a bad assumption. Michigan is one of a large group of teams with similar resumes so it is hard to say Michigan is next in line for a bid or even that Memphis or UTEP is ranked above us at this point. It could be a team not even on that bracket like Massachusetts, Wyoming, Seton Hall, Florida, or Clemson.

michelin

March 14th, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^

Consider Harvard which the bracket puts 3 spots above UM.  I do not discount the bracket's comprehensiveness but by including so many polls, it includes some with dubious methods.

According to a highly predictive poll like Sagarin, however,

UM is 20 spots ahead of Harvard.

why?

UM had the #10 SOS in the country. 

Harvard was #179.  

UM  would be favored over Harvard today by 3 pts, and

that gap would increase with a loss to Yale.

I do not think it unreasonable that UM could jump Harvard as well as some other teams.

But iI have been only talking about possibilities.  I agree that there are many other events that could dash UM's  hopes.

 

Leaders And Best

March 14th, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^

The committee uses RPI unfortunately. They do not use Ken Pom or Sagarin. SOS will be factored in, but Harvard's RPI is in the 60s.

I would not focus on the seeding in these NIT bracket projections too much. The way I see it there are 22 at-large bids at this moment. I think the following teams are pretty much locks for the NIT (assuming they don't make the NCAA Tourney, but even in that case they will just knock another team down to take their spot):

Big Ten: Illinois

SEC: Texas A&M

ACC: Miami(FL), Pittsburgh

Pac 12: UCLA, Stanford

Big 12:

Big East:

Atlantic 10: Richmond, Rhode Island

American: Tulsa, UConn

Mountain West: Wyoming

Missouri Valley: Illinois State

Conference USA: Old Dominion

MAC: Buffalo

Horizon: Green Bay

Ivy: Harvard

I think there will be a second Big Ten team (Minnesota or Michigan) and a second SEC team (Alabama or Vanderbilt). That makes 18 teams of the 22 at-larges. I still have my doubts that they completely leave the Big 12 and the Big East out of the NIT and wouldn't be surprised to see Seton Hall and TCU make the NIT. I also question whether they will put a third Conference USA team in the NIT (UTEP) or a third American team (Memphis) even though the Bracket Project projection has them in right now. I think all these teams are on the bubble along with some other third teams from other conferences (GW, ASU, etc.)

On a side note, Conference USA really screwed us by Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion and UTEP all getting upset in their conference tournament. They may end up a league with 3 bids to the NIT and all of them better than the team that made the NCAA Tourney.

Leaders And Best

March 14th, 2015 at 7:34 PM ^

I said assuming they didn't make the NCAA Tournament. If they did, they would just bump another team (Yale) into their spot. That spot was for the Harvard-Yale loser which I had posted above. I had put Harvard in that placeholder at the time because Yale had the lead. So just swap Harvard with Yale. It doesn't really change much.

Walter Sobchak

March 14th, 2015 at 9:02 PM ^

State fans hate Michigan for two main reasons:

1. We have a long tradition of winning that makes us more popular in general than State.

2. For many years we beat the shit out of their mediocre football team regularly. See: All time record vs. State.

bronxblue

March 14th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^

They beat OSU about as handily as Michigan did, and this OSU team has been a shell of its former self in the past couple of weeks.  Like last year, MSU is 1-2 against a team but because they beat them in a 1-game tournament they think that makes all past failures irrelevant.

MSU is a good team for this conference; they are, overall, pretty mediocre.  I fully expect Wiscy to run them off the court.

Leaders And Best

March 14th, 2015 at 8:08 PM ^

Wyoming about to beat San Diego State for the MWC Tournament Title. This is going to eliminate one more team from the NCAA Tourney bubble and push them to the NIT. Wyoming was probably going to make the NIT, but this doesn't help Michigan as it pushes one NCAA bubble team into the NIT at-large field that is definitely going to take its place.

Boner Stabone

March 14th, 2015 at 8:40 PM ^

As cool as would be to watch our guys a few more times this year in the NIT.  I am alright with them not getting in.  These guys achieved a lot more than a lot of people thought and they have nothing left to prove for this year.  Next years season began with Beilein getting Teed up at the end of the Wisconsin game.  It was a message to these guys that he is getting ready for next year and he was letting the rest of the conference know about it.  Go Blue 2016 hoops!!