MBB: Does the Davis commitment mean LeVert [EDIT: or Beilfeldt] are coming back?
You can't give a scholarship to Jaylen Brown or Kenny Williams even if LeVert leaves so long as you take Coach Beilein's statement that there will be no roster attrition at face value. Davis's scholarship offer is currently contingent on LeVert's scholarship being available by 2016, and you couldn't be sure of that if it were taken up by anyone other than a senior.
I know there are other ways Davis and either Williams or Brown could be on the roster together, but LeVert staying and Michigan being done with 2015 recruiting seems the most likely. I doubt Coach Beilein would essentially burn a 2015 scholarship by locking himself in with Davis. So, we have good news?
EDIT: I didn't think about the possibility of bringing Max back and using the 2015 opening (if LeVert leaves) that way. We have to allow for that.
April 16th, 2015 at 11:44 PM ^
Good point but Why would he still be recruiting Brown and Williams?
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April 16th, 2015 at 11:47 PM ^
because you touch yourself at night.
sorry...
April 16th, 2015 at 11:49 PM ^
...still be roster attrition.
My guess, and these are only my thoughts, haven't seen anything from any insiders, is that Donnal is transferring either now or next year and/or Wagner won't be able to play here.
Why wouldn't Wagner be able to play here?
That's not automatic for foreign recruits and the result isn't known yet.
Maybe Hatch gets a medical so holly and Max stays as a walk on.
I think once you're a scholarship player you're always counted as one. I could be wrong of course but I think that was brought up in a recent mailbag or UV or some such thing...
April 17th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^
you can always decide to pay your own way and give up your schollie.
Think about Stainbrook on Xavier, who "gave" his to his brother. Remember that story from the tournament?
April 17th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
What freejs said. You're still counted as a scholly player even if you get a non-athletic scholarship. But if you lose the scholarship and decide to pay your own way, you can be a walk on.
Unrelated: nice avatar. Wreck and Rule!
- Hatch is going on medical - it only makes sense. He himself has said he can't do what he wants - guarantee he's still part of the team, still practices, still there on the bench as a manager or student coach. Right now, he's an inspiration, but athletically he's not able to do anything on the basketball court. He'd still be on scholarship (medical) and part of the team just as if he were on an athletic scholarship.
- Zak Irvin could easily go pro after next year
- Donnal probably doesn't get a 5th year
-
Robinson may not get a 5th year
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-16
- D. Walton (Jr.)
- A. Dawkins (So.)
- C. LeVert (Sr.)
- Z. Irvin (Jr.)
- R. Doyle (So.)
- S. Albrecht (Sr.)
- MAAR (So.)
- D. Robinson (RS So.)
- K. Chatman (So.)
- D.J. Wilson (RS Fr.)
- M. Donnal (RS So.)
- M. Wagner (Fr.)
- K. Williams/J. Brown (Fr.)
2016-17
- D. Walton (Sr.)
- K. Williams/J. Brown (So.)
- A. Dawkins (Jr.)
- K. Chatman (Jr.)
- R. Doyle (Jr.)
- MAAR (Jr.)
- D. Robinson (RS Jr.)
- M. Wagner (So.)
- D.J. Wilson (RS So.)
- M. Donnal (RS Jr.)
- J. Teske (Fr.)
- A. Davis (Fr.)
- OPEN (or Z. Irvin returns or S. Albrecht if redshirt in '15-'16)
*If Irvin stays, you try like hell to get by with Walton and MAAR as your PG's - then again, if somehow you got Brown and Irvin stays...you still have an open spot to get a freshman PG on this team. You also could redshirt Albrecht THIS ('15-'16) season with the hip injury and have him in 2016-17. Too far out to worry.
2017-18
- OPEN/K. Williams/J. Brown (Jr.)
- MAAR (Sr.)
- A. Dawkins (Sr.)
- K. Chatman (Sr.)
- R. Doyle (Sr.)
- M. Wagner (Jr.)
- D.J. Wilson (RS Jr.)
- J. Teske (So.)
-
A. Davis (So.)
--------------------------------------------------------------- - D. Robinson (if returns for 5th)
- M. Donnal (if returns for 5th)
- OPEN (or '16-17 recruit)
- OPEN
*You've likely got at least 2 OPEN spots, probably 3 and that's before any decision is made on Robinson and Donnal. That's a freshman class of 3-5. I'll call it 4. These freshman would be playing on a team with a bunch of upperclassmen with crazy amounts of experience. Add freshman Spike, LeVert, Stauskas and Robinson III to this group and it sounds pretty nice...but like I said...Too far out to worry.
Just a thought but could it be that DJ Wilson's injuries to his knee is career ending?
Unfounded speculation is unfounded.
We'd know...because Beilein doesn't hide injuries.
And how do you come up with that? Why not suggest any other player on the team that has been hurt? There's really nothing pointing to Wilson over anyone else.
But no, I'm sure we'd know if there was a career ending injury.
Again, it's 2 years from now...and it's not like we're over the roster limit even if everyone who can come back, comes back. Even WITH Davis.
It's just perplexing because Davis doesn't look that good and we need a PG and right now we don't have a spot for one in 2 years. But like I said, Irvin could easily be gone after next season (opening up a spot)...and/or Spike could redshirt this year.
My personal opinion is that there is a better shot of us adding a PG to the 2016 class than not. It just may not be until next calendar year.
My friend was a student manager the last couple of years until the other day when they had the last practice a few days ago and now he's done. Did everyone know they continued practice after the season was over?
In any event, he said DJ has been playing better than anyone on the team. I guess only doing one on one drills for some reason, but that nobody can stop him inside.
April 17th, 2015 at 11:14 PM ^
very clever around the basket and extremely quick off the floor and to the rim. I really, really like his game.
Thanks for the info.
I've also heard rumors that Wagner reclassifies as a 2016 kid. That would mean him staying overseas for another year. What does that do for our scholarship numbers?
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April 16th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^
It's unrealistic to believe every spot would be taken anyways. Guys like Donnal and MAAR could transfer for PT. Someone could blow up into an NBA prospect. Another year of bench mob time could be the end of Hatch's playing career with a medical scholarship. Too early to make any judgements here.
April 16th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^
Doesn't matter since Levert would be gone anyways. Basically we're still in the same situation we were in for 2015 that we were in before. We can take 2 of the Jaylen Brown, Williams, Levert combination with a Hatch medical. We can take 1 without. Bielfeldt can come back too but I'd think he'd have to pay his own way unless we strike out on all 3 options. It affects 2016 and PG recruiting. I don't know where it's going to come from unless we have a transfer coming.
April 16th, 2015 at 11:51 PM ^
levert graduates after 2015 even if he returns. Spike if he doesnt redshirt will also graduate. Irvin is NBA possibility and may leave after junior year. Brown is a 1 and done. We addressed bielfelt is likely only coming back as a back up back up option or walkon. And never know if dawkins explodes enough to leave early. Either way theres room. what dont you get by this pickup for 2016?
April 17th, 2015 at 12:01 AM ^
...there are two 2016 scholarships: Caris's and Spike's. But there's only one if Caris's becomes occupied by a 2015 guy. And that can't happen if you're locked in with Davis and Teske. So it makes sense that there will be no 2015 guy, and I doubt Coach Beilein would burn a year's scholarship. If that's right, either Caris or Max is back.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:02 AM ^
theres still making hatch a medical and an early entry possibility. Plus brown being a one and done. And its likely one of doyle, donnal, wilson, wagner, teske, and now davis not sticking around.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:13 AM ^
...give it to Williams or Brown. You've still got Caris's spot, and it can only be safely used by Caris or Max, because they're the only guys you could be sure would be gone in a year.
April 16th, 2015 at 11:52 PM ^
MAAR wouldn't transfer. He was one of our best players in the 2nd half of the season.
April 16th, 2015 at 11:53 PM ^
Maybe Beilein wants to have enough insurance after seeing his entire roster leave to the NBA from 2013 quicker than he expected.
That's seems more likely but the talent isn't really NBA ready. What happens when u don't have enough scholarships ?
April 16th, 2015 at 11:57 PM ^
Any way you slice it, the Davis commitment makes no sense from the standpoint of talent or roster management.
It's just really disappointing that our recruiting has been so poor over the last two years. Backcourt depth for 2016-2017 looks nonexistent.
People can talk all they want about Beilein finding diamonds in the rough, but every single player he put into the NBA was a top-100 recruit.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:06 AM ^
I agree. I mean last year I think Beilein was scrambling to fill the open spots because he wasnt expecting that many depatures and this year maybe because we werent that impresive. But still, you'd think our recent runs in the tourney and our NBA drafts would have gotten us more.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:43 AM ^
First of all, "top-100" recruit isn't exactly a high bar in basketball, and most of those guys were near the bottom of the top-100, at least when they committed. And you don't know that this Davis kid won't be a top-100 when it's all said and done. This argument holds little water. Most of the kids Beilein has sent to the NBA were not sought after recruits.
Plus LeVert. Not a top 100 recruit.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:51 AM ^
Also - not every kid needs to be an NBA player. Lots of good programs, ours included, get a lot of contribution out of guys like Spike and Jordan Morgan.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
Maybe Williams plays point?
April 17th, 2015 at 12:13 AM ^
Yeah that's what I'm guessing too. Maybe Beilein wants to transition into a bigger point guard type (or just get bigger everywhere). Is it possible that MAAR could be trained at the point as well?
It just doesnt work that way. It is very difficult to make a guy who has not played PG a PG. That's a very specific skill set that comes from years of playing the position.
Williams has been described as a combo guard. That means he can play either the 1 or 2.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:11 AM ^
Methinks Donnal didn't like being passed by Max and Ricky ...
April 17th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
whether he likes it or not is not really the point. He was terribly miscast as a 5. He can play the Novakian 4 (spot up 3's on offense,) but he's not big/strong enough to handle 5s on defense.
Novakian 4 must be used more liberally around these parts. Awesome description.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:15 AM ^
How many other teams go to a championship game and have recruiting take a nose dive? I like our staff a lot but recruiting from 2014 on has gone the absolutely wrong direction.
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April 17th, 2015 at 12:37 AM ^
We had a top 25ish recruit in Chatman, and probably one of the steals of year in Dawkins (not to mention Rahk and Doyle who were contributors as freshmen) this year, and Wagner would have been a 4/5 star recruit and we are still in on 2 other top recruits.
We'll never be Kansas / Kentucky / Duke. Other than that, I think we're doing pretty well
April 17th, 2015 at 12:47 AM ^
Not compared to the previous classes. McGary, GR3, Walton, and Irvin were all top 40 guys. Stauskas and Donnal were top 80 guys. We had a class of 6 guys last year and only got 1 top 40 guy and a borderline top 100 guy. This year we're looking at Wagner, who would be top 40, and that's essentially it unless we make room for Williams or the extremely unlikely event we get Brown. As far as 2016 goes, we have a borderline top 100 guy in Teske and an unrated guy in Davis. That is a major step down from what we had before, and what essentially led us to the NCG and Elite 8 in 2013 and 2014.
April 17th, 2015 at 12:57 AM ^
We really can't compare to what we had in 2013. For one, we had the national POY. Regardless of your other 4, that will always make a huge difference. And not only that, of the 5 starters that year, 4 of them were 3 atars when they committed to us, and 2 of them were still 3 stars on signing day. So it's not like they were all world beaters. That was just the perfect storm.
That team was built around 3 guys - Stauskas, Burke and Hardaway - wildly outperforming their recruiting rankings. The two guy from that line up that were highly ranked recruits when it was all said and done - GRIII and McGary - were complimentary pieces. They played really well at times, but were not the backbone of that team. McGary didn't even play all that much for most of the year.
I disagree that Stauskas was more of a centerpiece than GR3 their freshmen years. And we don't come close to the NCG without McGary, so while he wasn't a star during the regular season, he was our 2nd most important player in the postseason. But, that doesn't really change the fact that 2013 and 2014 teams were filled with higher rated players than our future teams will be unless there's a serious uptick in recruiting. And my guess is the on court performance will reflect that.
We can debate that sort of stuff all we want. But we also can't set our expectations at that team. That 2013 team was the most talented team MIchigan has ever trotted out there, more talented than most programs have ever had. All 5 starters were NBA draft picks and 4 of the 5 were first rounders.
So yeah, we probably won't have that kind of talent any time soon. Either will almost anyone else.
I dunno about that. That team was very talented for sure, but that's pretty much the typical team for programs like Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, UNC, etc. Of course I don't expect us to recruit at that level, but I think we should be able to recruit at the level of OSU and Indiana for sure. Michigan has also had more talented teams IMO with the Fab 5 (yes I know, Ed Martin caveat applies). Still, after the success we've had the past couple of years, our teams should be closer in talent to the 2013 and 2014 teams than the 2011 and 2012 teams.
Maybe on the high end the Fab 5 team was better (you could argue their top 3 were better than the 2013 top 3) but the next two in 2013 were better than King and Jackson.
And there's a reason I said that most programs don't have teams like that. Some do, but very few.
I don't get all the complaining. Outside off this year, after a mass exodus and tons of injuries, we have been perpetually very good. Why are we all of a sudden doubting this system?
Some could look at 2013 and 2014 as more of an aberration than the norm. I mean let's face it, 2007-2012 and 2014-2015 were a lot different than 2012-2014. Some may also see a dip in recruiting to a level that was more like what we were at back when we were just satisfied making the tournament and winning 1 game. I understand the whole "trust in Beilein" mindset but he can't turn water into wine. He needs great players to make deep tournament runs, every coach does (except Izzo apparently), and I personally don't think he's been getting those types of players since the Irvin/Walton class.
Except Izzo? You mean the guy that got 4 years out of 5-star Branden Dawson? Izzo may not get a ton of blue-chips but he usually has a more talented (and older) roster than does Coach B.
Doubt is coming in b/c
1) Prior to the great 2012 class, UM basketball was still on a upward trajectory in terms of winning and NCAA appearances
2) Once expectations were exceeded and then some in 2013, people expected Michigan to be right back where it used to be prior to sanctions amongst the elite programs in the country.
3) Once the mass exodus occurred after the 2014 Elite Eight run, recruits were expected to ball out every year along with "sophmore" jumps rivaling the levels of Burke's and Stauskas' jump. Levert was supposed to be the man.
4) None of those things happened mentioned in step 3, thus leading to a downward spiral. On top of that, Levert got injured again.
5) Looking back at potential recruiting misses in Donnal and Chatman, fans are getting uneasy with the whole "diamond in the rough" approach since you can only expect to get so many "diamonds" that other elite programs miss every year. (even though those 2 were highly ranked)
Therefore, given the recent track record of success, it isn't really crazy to assume Michigan should be recruiting at a higher level (like 2012) instead of falling back down to pre-2012 levels.
Doesn't make sense how the on court success and NBA talent development aren't turning heads at the high school level...I mean Beilein somehow managed to lure that great 2012 class based on a couple early round NCAA exits why can't he keep it up with National Runner Up and Elite Eight appearances? Meh.
Confusion...
2013 was absolutely a less talented team than the Fab5 team. Apart from recruiting rankings, Rose, Webber, and Howard all had lengthy NBA careers (borderline all-stars). King and Jackson, while not as successful, were borderline NBA players and very talented. And I think they were just as good as freshman as was Stauskus. King was just as good (and athlete) as GRIII. Plus that team had solid upperclassmen on the roster (including an NBA player like Eric Riley).
In recruiting and the program's success. Shit unfortunately happens in many forms. Good thing we have a tremendous basketball coaching staff in charge and adapting to it all.