Matt Hinton on Big 10 recruiting
There's an interesting article by Matt Hinton that bears on Michigan and recruiting. Essentially, he shows that the top recruits in the Midwest this year are not committing to Big 10 schools but are heading to the powerhouses in the south and west (USC, Texas, Florida). He credits this trend in part to Michigan's decline and to the Big 10's inability in 2006-2008 to win BCS bowls. I actually think that the sample size is far too low to draw any meaningful conclusions from a one-year "trend." But I suppose it's something to keep an eye out for next year...
January 30th, 2010 at 8:54 AM ^
You would think since the article is on a rivals web site Hinton would have taken the time to actually check rivals rankings. If he did he would see that Michigan's class is 19 making it in the top 20.
January 30th, 2010 at 4:01 PM ^
The article is only for Ohio State's concern, if you look at the actual rankings. They're not keeping their instate talent, especially a state that produces so much and really doesn't have any instate competition, though I guess Michigan, while on the down, would be that in most years. Ohio State, for once, didn't dominate their own state - big deal! I don't see how this is such a problem that it warrants more than a mention of; Ohio State had a down year of recruiting instate.
Michigan has recruited out of state, did they mention that? I am sure Penn State, Ohio State, and other Big Ten schools go out of the region to get their talent, so maybe it's just a reminder of -- your region is just that, and people leave said region all the time. I am shocked!!
January 30th, 2010 at 8:57 AM ^
...sure loves him some Buckeyes.
January 30th, 2010 at 9:02 AM ^
If Hinton knew anything about recruiting, he'd realize that BCS/high profile bowl wins that occur at the beginning of January would have very little impact on most players. These players get recruited for a couple years and narrow their choices down to a select few at that time. OSU's Rose Bowl victory isn't necessarily going to sway a kid who was already leaning toward committing to Texas in February. It has more of an effect on a junior who has yet to make up his mind for February 2011.
So far, this is a one-year trend that may disappear by next NSD.
January 30th, 2010 at 9:22 AM ^
I concur.
Most of these kids have already pared down their choices to a short list long before the bowls.
This article is a lame attempt at suggesting causality between the Big 10's recent performance and a 'sudden exodus' from the midwest.
In the parlance of college football recruiting (which is a slow-moving landscape), there is no such thing as a 'one-year trend'. Trends happen over five-, ten-, and fifteen-year periods; one year of poor midwest recruiting does not a trend make.
January 30th, 2010 at 9:39 AM ^
Well, in his defense he did write this sentence: "It's not a trend: Last year, of the top 10 prospects in Ohio, Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all of three committed to non-Big Ten schools, and one of those was to Notre Dame." [emphasis mine]
I think what would be more interesting for Hinton to talk about would be e-blogs' trend toward REPORTING about the death of the Midwest and the irrelevance of the Big 10; because unlike the supposed decline itself, whose existence isn't empirically verifiable, there ARE any number of cases in point which you could marshall in support of an argument about why, and how, the internet media and the mass media have basically decided that the Death Of Midwest Football is a story worth inventing.
January 30th, 2010 at 10:48 AM ^
It is interesting to me that he had that sentence. He said, "This is not a trend..." then he proceeded to spend the rest of his article suggesting this was a trend.
Perhaps now that the B10 won two BCS games this year, the media will shut up about the death of the B10. The B10 itself has had much less to do with the disappointing recruitment of the midwest's highest rated players than the media has. The national media, stories like this, eblogs, and idiots have touted the death of the B10 so loud and so long that it has altered the national perception.
The truth is there, the B10 is still highly competitive, and will likely see improvement and more bowl seasons like 2009. But like in so many things, the ignorance is louder than the intelligence. The ignorance is easier to find, hell you can't miss it. The truth and the intelligence takes work to acquire, and most people don't put in the effort.
Sure, this has been a disappointing year in the B10, but steady improvements in AA will have a major impact on this trend.
January 30th, 2010 at 10:44 AM ^
I love following recruiting but I think that the ESPN top 150 and the star ratings are way overhyped.
January 30th, 2010 at 10:50 AM ^
I think part of it is also that the powerhouse Midwestern schools have been looking to the South or Cali for speed. The trendy new thing is to get kids from Texas, Florida and Cali and a lot of the big schools have begun to have some of their recruiting staff focus on that area. So a certian percentage of roster space is now reserved for those kids, thus leaving more Midwesterner kids looking at other schools.
January 30th, 2010 at 11:23 AM ^
out the so-called "exodus" from the Midwest and supposedly out of the Big Ten. The article would have been more relevant if it had also discussed how many players have been entering the Big Ten fron the West, East, South and Southeast. This information would probably have put the issue in a more proper perspective. Michigan, for one, is now getting more recruits from various parts of the country.
January 30th, 2010 at 12:59 PM ^
The best thing to come out of that article came from the comments section where one of the posters calls himself "FL[orida] is America's Wang"
I actually think of Florida as one of America's front feet and Texas as being the wang, but I still thought it was hilarious.
January 30th, 2010 at 1:41 PM ^
I am no statistician, but I have to believe that is within the normal range of expected yearly fluctuations.
"Professional sportswriter" is such a useless occupation.
January 30th, 2010 at 1:46 PM ^
As I can't post my own topics, I figured a recruiting post would be somewhat relevant. Just found out that Rich Rod got into contact with Butch Jones and is getting Adrian Witty into Cincinnati this year. Nice gesture by Rich Rod, and he'll be a solid pickup for UC.
January 30th, 2010 at 2:42 PM ^
That's awesome. Really wish that sort of thing was considered newsworthy by MSM, even if it wasn't our coach doing it.
Brian or mods, anyway that could get a shout-out on the front page in one of the recruiting updates or NSD coverage?
January 30th, 2010 at 3:21 PM ^
Another display of his absolute lack of family values. Why must he keep proving Justin (Pillsbury Doughboy) Boren right about the eroding family vales at Michigan? What coach in their right mind would go out of his way to get a kid he recruited a scholarship at another school?
Seriously though, good for Witty and a classy move by RR. It's a shame we couldn't get him as I think he'll turn out to be a good player. It seems like he did what he needed to get in, but at least RR managed to get him into another BCS program. How much do you want to bet that the F*%!p doesn't give RR any credit for this. Are you sure it was Saint D that helped Witty out(LMAO)?
January 30th, 2010 at 2:46 PM ^
...we'll see if this guy's theory holds water. Until then, this is academic as there is no way to determine if top recruits out of HS will ever match the hype they come with.
January 30th, 2010 at 3:58 PM ^
What's interesting to me is that the numbers are bad in Ohio, Illinois and Indiana. And let's face it, Illinois and Indiana aren't part of the Big 10's power center. It's really an article about Ohio - and talking about how Michigan has fallen.
But that really has nothing to do with this. Even if Michigan didn't get all of them, 6 of 7 Michigan 4-5 stars are still in Michigan. 10 of 11 in Pennsylvania.
This is a moronic article. A disguised excuse to mention that Michigan hasn't been very good the last two years. "With the exception of Michigan's ongoing woe, 2009 was the year the Big 10 fought back."
Two mentions in a paragraph and a half, each time adding nothing to the content of the article.
Douche.