Massey win probabilities--final two weeks

Submitted by Yeoman on

Last week certainly simplified things. The leaders are done and in the legends we're left with:

Michigan:

  • Iowa 84%
  • Ohio State 38%

Nebraska:

  • Minnesota 91%
  • Iowa 83%

Michigan:

  • 2-0 32%
  • 1-1 58%
  • 0-2 10%

Nebraska

  • 2-0 76%
  • 1-1 22%
  • 0-2 2%

Probability of winning the division: Nebraska 91%, Michigan 9%. That may sound grim but I'll bet it's a lot better than Mathlete's odds of winning on Saturday after NW got that last first down.

For what it's worth, Nebraska would be a one-point favorite over Wisconsin and Wisconsin would be favored by two over Michigan. At Sagarin Nebraska would be favored by half a point and M/W would be a toss-up.

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MGoCombs

November 12th, 2012 at 11:15 AM ^

I've not lost hope yet. All we can do is win the games on the schedule. I think if we do, this will still be a great season even if Nebraska does the same. Sure, it will be a little disappointing to miss out on the Big Ten Championship game again, but we'll probably go to a solid bowl game against a quality SEC opponent. We'll have beaten OSU and MSU, and we've seen that all is not necessarily lost without Denard in the game. I just hope he can make it back for senior day and one final victory over the Buckeyes.

Joined: 08/13/2009

MGoPoints: 3849

turd ferguson

November 12th, 2012 at 11:17 AM ^

Interesting that he has our chances of beating Iowa in Ann Arbor (84%) essentially identical to Nebraska's chances of beating them in Iowa City (83%).  A Michigan loss to Iowa would surprise me much more than a Nebraska loss to Iowa.

Joined: 12/09/2009

MGoPoints: 26493

Yeoman

November 12th, 2012 at 11:31 AM ^

He has Nebraska about three points better than Michigan, and in the B1G the difference between home and away is generally between three and four points.

One of the unique (as far as I know) features of Massey is that he uses historical data to estimate home field advantages for each school. For reasons unclear, home field matters less in the B1G than in any other conference except the Sun Belt. And Iowa's advantage is the smallest in the conference, in fact the smallest among all BCS schools.

It's quite amazing, actually--I'd never done the sort until now:

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=FBS (and click on HFA at the top)

Of all FBS teams, the 15 smallest HFA's are all Sun Belt or Big Ten teams, plus Notre Dame. Why would that be? It makes me wonder if he's done the calculation right but I have no real reason to think he hasn't.

Joined: 06/08/2011

MGoPoints: 21390

LSAClassOf2000

November 12th, 2012 at 12:10 PM ^

That particular feature is interesting and I also wonder what comes into play here. For example, the average HFA of the Big Ten, using Massey's numbers, is 1.57, but compare that to the Pac-12, where the average is 4.74 by the same formula. The Big XII average would 2.46 in the conference and the ACC average would be 3.58.

Just for kicks as well, I went to Mcubed.net for historical information on the Iowa-Nebraska game - Iowa is 12-27-3 in the series, and the average score has been 16-10 in favor of Nebraska. In the last 4 meetings, all Nebraska wins, the average score has been 37-9.

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130603

Purkinje

November 12th, 2012 at 11:29 AM ^

This has been a strange season for me (thus far.) I really had higher hopes for our record at this point in the season than 7-3, but when you look at who our losses are to, it's not actually much of a disappointment... I think next year will be much kinder to us, especially now that it seems the offense won't take a huge step back without Denard.

Joined: 09/29/2009

MGoPoints: 2546

Mich Mash

November 12th, 2012 at 12:52 PM ^

...but it is hard to find the logic in Lewan returning from his perspective (not that I have any knowledege whatsoever of his perspective).  Top 10 draft ratings do not come along every day and the possibility of injury is high at the O-Line position group.  O-Lineman are subjected to continuous pounding, but more dangerous are the slanting and diving defenders at their knees.  Guaranteed Top 10 NFL money versus competing on a transitioning Michigan team for a shot at a B1G title game.  My bet would be on him leaving as much as I hate to say it.

Joined: 10/01/2012

MGoPoints: 279

TheFrigz

November 12th, 2012 at 12:50 PM ^

I'm keeping the faith.  Iowa is always good to ruin at least one team's season, especially at home, I'm praying they choose to ruin Nebraska's and not ours.

Joined: 04/09/2012

MGoPoints: 4079

State Street

November 12th, 2012 at 1:11 PM ^

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that our win probablity after the fourth down conversion for Northwestern was probably close to or less than 1%.  Anything can happen the last two weekends of the season (or three, if we're talking a potential yet unlikely BCS at large birth)

Joined: 07/09/2011

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