Maryland By the #s

Submitted by alum96 on

Data via NCAA.com database.  Team stats only.

 

Things Maryland exels at:

    Natl rank Value
Passes Intercepted   40 4
Punt returns   1 28.1
Sacks Allowed per game   13 0.75
Team Sacks   2 4.25
Team Tackles for loss   20 7.8

This is a small list.  And I am being generous putting an item here ranked #40 as "excel".  We all know about Will Likely.  DO NOT KICK TO WILL LIKELY!!!!  Less known was despite all their offensive woes Maryland does not give up a lot of sacks (their QBs prefer to throw quick INTs), and their defense does one thing well - get sacks and TFLs. 

And ... that's about all Maryland can do well.

 

Things Maryland does not excel at:

    Natl rank Value
4th down conversion %   107 13
4th down conversion D   86 14
Completion %   115 50.4
Fewest Penalties/Game   105 8.25
Penalty Yds/Game   111 79
Fumbles recovered   95 1
Net punting   86 36.22
Passed Had Intercepted   127 12
Passing Offense   98 193.3
Passing Yards Allowed   101 267
Rushing Defense   100 200.3
Scoring Defense   99 32.8
Time of Possession   105 26:29
Total Defense   107 467.3
Turnover Margin   125 -2.25
Turnovers Lost   125 14

 

So yeah.

NCAA stats is even more cruel to Maryland than advanced stats (S&P+) with that 107th ranked defense.  You can choose to run on them (100th) or pass (101st).  They take a lot of penalties.  When the offense has the ball their passing game is bad.  Any time they throw the ball it is essentially a coin flip if it will be a completion.  Caleb rowe has a huge arm but loves to throw INTs.  Hence they don't have the ball much.  And oh yeah when they punt you can usually make up 5+ yds of field position.   (But when you punt to them they tend to  make up 20 yds of field position - so just dont do that)  They suck at 4th down defense so my advice is to GO for it and DO NOT KICK TO WILL LIKELY!

alum96

October 1st, 2015 at 7:52 AM ^

With our projected 39 minutes of time of possession and 80%/20% run/pass ratio we should only have 8-9 drives of which only 3-4 should be unsuccessful.  2 of those will end in Blake end around runs, and 1-2 will be pooch punts of the 30 yd variety (into the wind)...or booming punts 20 yds into the sideline stands (with the wind).

That will be an acceptable Will Likely deterrent.

umrinkydink

October 1st, 2015 at 8:30 AM ^

Would be interested to see Michigan's converse rankings (i.e. our ranking for scoring offense vs. their ranking for scoring defense) to identify further matchup strengths and weaknesses.

LSAClassOf2000

October 1st, 2015 at 8:51 AM ^

Here's how TeamRankings stacks them up:

Offense Michigan Maryland
Yards/Play 5.5 5.5
Points/Play 0.384 0.349
Rush Play % 57.79% 45.64%
Pass Play % 42.21% 54.36%
Completion % 61.34% 49.51%
3D Conv % 45.76% 36.59%
RZ Scoring % 92.86% 80.00%
Defense Michigan Maryland
Opp Yards/Play 3.4 5.6
Opp Points/Play 0.156 0.385
Opp Completion % 55.14% 60.53%
Opp 3D Conv % 24.07% 46.15%
Opp RZ Scoring % 83.33% 75.00%

 

turtleboy

October 1st, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^

Wonder if our opponents points per play will drop to under 0.1 after this game. Maryland's a more pass heavy offense, but with us running out the clock they'll likely manage as few plays on offense as BYU did. If they run 55 plays on Saturday, but net zero points, what'll that bring our average to?

Everyone Murders

October 1st, 2015 at 9:21 AM ^

The only troubling thing I see in the OP other than the well-known Likely excellence at punt returns is that MD apparently excels in getting INTs.  Until last week, Michigan excelled in throwing picks.  I see that Rudock's getting better at ball protection each week (which may also be due to the WRs being on the same page as him, and improved OL play).  Michigan "picks thrown" have been trending down all season.

I'd love to see that trend continue.

Avon Barksdale

October 1st, 2015 at 9:25 AM ^

Maryland's defensive statistics are awful, but they played two good spread teams and were gashed in both those games. Michigan, by no stretch of the imagination, is a spread team. Hopefully our offense can still impose its will on their defense.

BlueinLansing

October 1st, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^

that I thought the same about watching BYU/UCLA.  I thought, wow UCLA really found some holes but we don't really spread teams out or have UCLA's personnel.  As it turned out we didn't quite shred BYU the way UCLA did on the ground but we were very effective moving the ball for the most part.

 

Football is football, block well and make defenders go where they don't want to and you'll be succesfull.

Wolverine fan …

October 1st, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^

are fugly. Their time of possession and run defense stats indicate near-certain doom for the Terps. Took a look at the stat lines of their games against Bowling Green and USF (the WV and Richmond games are outliers, with Richmond being FCS and the Terps giving away 6 turnovers against the Mountaineers). The Terps gave up 200+ rushing yards to a MAC and AAC school. Feeling even better than I was about this game a couple days ago. Revenge will be sweet.

WolverineHistorian

October 1st, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^

Part of me feels a little nervous despite all those stats. The last seven years cannot be erased from memory over night. I'm too used to seeing God awful teams put it together against us or a freshman QB torching our secondary for 300 yards. Then those same teams go out the next week and lose to small colleges you never heard of.

Even the joy over the BYU game (and it truly was glorious) can't ease tension because the last time I felt that kind of happiness after a win, it was immediately followed up with Akron being 7 yards away from beating us.

I keep reminding myself....Harbaugh. But the last seven years is screaming louder.