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#20 TCU loses
#16 South Florida crushed by Pitt
#15 Baylor loses
#14 Texas A&M picks up second loss
#10 South Carolina loses
1 of #11 VT vs #13 Clemson loses
possible (likely) #12 Florida loses to #3 Alabama
edit: also one of #7 Wisconsin vs #8 Nebraska
I think for sure we jump South Florida, Baylor, Texas A&M and end up in the #15 range. I also think we probably should be considered one of the top 15 teams. If Nebraska loses bad, we could jump them as well.
I learned to not care about rankings in September and October the past couple years. Just keep winning.
#1 obviously.
But EASILY 4 or 5.....let's be realistic here.
After the whooping we just placed on Minny...we may low-teens...
...IMO still too high, but it's hard to argue against after today's showing and the fact that people keep on losing.
Personally, I think we're playing like we should be #20 +/- 1 spot.
we came into the game ranked 19, right?
edit: I understand you aren't saying about the rankings, moreso just your thoughts, but do you really think there are 19 teams with a better resume, or better teams (however you think they should be ranked).
there are probably at least 19 better teams. I don't think there are even 15 teams with better resumes. And I have just enough doubt in my own brilliance to go with resume over my assumptions about team quality.
Until today I saw a lot of holes in both our offense and defense. Today came and I want to believe...but Minnesota was HORRIBLE. If we can play that efficiently and effectively next week I'll have us in the top 10.
But right now, I'm still skeptical. Denard's passing had been horrible. For the first 3 games we couldn't score early. We struggled to have a running game outside of Denard. Defensively we couldn't get a rush without blitzing.
I think the last 2 weeks have been VERY impressive. And today was incredible. Today was something you see in video games. That's why I started the "perfect" thread...not because I thought it was literally perfect. But for a football game, could you have asked for more? I don't think so. That was dominant.
My only hesitation was it was a BAAAAAD Minnesota team. A team that is probably a middle of the road 1-AA team. So I just want to see a little more. I want to feel like the only "toss-up" games on the schedule that we have left are MSU, Neb and OSU.
That's the Michigan of old. Michigan of old was never worried about Illinois, N'Western, etc. Only now do we look at say "well maybe if we do this" or "maybe if we do that" we can win. Before it was always MSU, OSU, and either Iowa or Wisky...whichever one of those two were good in that particular year.
Right now outside of Purdue...I can't feel really good about another W this season. Of course I think we'll win, hell, maybe win the all. But I don't see a game where it's like "meh...if we don't kill ourselves, we should win."
I know that doesn't have a ton to do with rankings. But a 7-5 team isn't top 15. I want to be confident we're playing above a 7-5 level before I assume we should be ranked that high.
I don't want to believe that Minnesota was horrible. But yeah, you're probably (definitely) right.
We have holes. But so does almost every team in the country. Being ranked in the top 15 does not mean being an unstoppable juggernaut. At season's end, the #15 team will be around 9-3.
But that's what I'm saying...I don't feel comfortable just YET saying we're at least a 9-3 type team.
For every arguement that I could make to say we are...I could make one that says we aren't. Like I said, I want to feel like we have all W's except for MSU, Neb and OSU before I say we're top 15.
MSU and OSU because they're rivalry games...and Neb, because despite last night, they're pretty good.
If we can handle N'Western and control the game...and then just beat MSU, no matter how we do it. I will then call us a top 15 team. Depending on how those games go, I may say top 10.
I'm sorry, I just don't think we've truly played anyone yet this year. IMO N'Western on the road will be as big of a test as ND was. MSU will be the first BIG GAME we have. If we win those two...combined with this 58-0 throttling, a big night game emotional win over ND. I'll say we're tested.
Can you honestly say last year's team wouldn't be 5-0 at this point in this season? I don't think so. But they likely lose 4-5 games in the last 7. Like they did last year.
Regarding your assumption about Purdue and the stated 7-5 record. That (obviously) makes us 1-5 in the remaining non-Purdue games. That's a lot worse than lacking overwhelming confidence that we'll win or even that those games are in the tossup range.
we started the game with our "manball" offense which just doesn't work. Then against Minny, Borges started giving Denard some easy throws and also threw on first down when it is easier to pass. I like that the staff isn't being as stubborn as the first three games when it comes to offensive play calling.
This team has a ton of potential especially if the D keeps on improving week to week as it seems to be doing. I'm going to guess we are at #14 one spot ahead of Nebraska.
I could honestly see us jumping the cornhuskers if they get crushed by the badgers (whch I think they will be).
I don't get why everyone is sleeping on Nebraska. Wisconsin isn't nearly as good as advertised.
There's a very good chance neither of them are as good as advertised.
Nebraska has struggled against some not so great teams this year, and Wisconsin's best win is over Washington.
Well so far I stand corrected on Wisconsin. I didn't expect them to be up by 20 at any point in the game.
But I didn't expect it. Welcome to the Big Ten, Nebraska.
Wisconsin looks legitimately good, imo, even if they haven't faced any killer opponents yet. They played smart, fast, tough ball. And jeez o petes their QB can play.
So yeah, Wisky should move up. Don't know if it will, but it should. Michigan will go up a bit, I'm guessing, but we're still not going to get major respect.
Nebraska's best win is over Washington. Wisconsin hasn't played anyone, especially with Oregon St. looking like they'll be lucky to win 4.
I don't think I've ever felt like I've known so little about every team in the Big 10 after 5 games, well except for a couple teams being horrible.
Yes they are. They are better than their current ranking.
To paraphrase, "Always Be Winning"
OK, concern yourself with rankings as bowl time nears.....
Higher than we should be in a vacuum, but given the other resumes out there I'm not sure how much lower we could be.
The rankings don't change how good this team is. Whether Michigan is #2 or #25 only changes whether the team will be considered an underdog the rest of the way- though it is hard for me to imagine the MSM ever considering Michigan the underdog. Let's not get hung up on misguiding rankings.
I think 15, but would not be surprised by a 13/14 rank either.
Sometimes fans are dumb.*
*Referring to the people complaining about rankings talk.
Moreso concern about how this year edition will play in the month of October. This month,in recent years,has not been kind to us.
I hope are recent play carries on deep into B1G play and beyond.
ornery MIchigan fans are going to have to admit that we are a pretty good team. We may not emanate depth from beginning of the season until the end. But we have a bunch of talented kids playing their asses off for an incredible staff of coaches.
I wouldn't be surprised if we start off 10-0. If we do, we finish 11-1 or better and that means we all get to buy a bunch of gaudy bowl paraphernalia. I call "shotgun" on the hoodie!
I would be surprised if we start 10-0. Very surprised. Every team except purdue scares me before that.
Meh, the rest of the B1G is just not that good. Nebraska is getting thrashed right now, and every other team on the schedule looks beatable. I'm not really "scared" of any of the remaining games, but I do think we will lose a few just because things won't go our way all year. But getting to Indianapolis looks a million times more doable now than it did before the season.
is playing and improving each week, they could do it, but I would be very surprised. We are 5-0 after playing 5 home games. Next week we go to NW and if we lose there (it has happened before) we would likely drop out of the Top 25.
So stop worrying about rankings and enjoy the moment.
and obviously it's a big if, but if we take care of business next week and manage to beat MSU, we'll be top 10 for the first time in what seems like forever.
Dude, you're already getting ahead of yourself. We play a scrappy Northwestern team that has its star QB back next week, not MSU.
THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS....
EDIT: Unless you're saying manage to take care of [Northwestern] next week and then beat MSU.
got hurt at the end of the game. Definitely not a certainty he plays. And their defense is bad. We will be favored and should win. Not saying an auto-win, but if we take care of business, we will win. And yeah taht's what I meant. Ambiguously worded.
I did not see that he was hurt at the end of the game. If he doesn't play next week things could, and hopefully will, get ugly.
Yeah, Persa was sacked with a few minutes left and their backup played for the rest of the game. Not sure if it's anything serious, but even if he plays, he'll be in trouble if we can get constant pressure. He looked fragile at times. But he also threw 4 TD's, so who knows.
This is obviously what you'd want to hear from your quarterback, I honestly hope the kid plays, it'd be a good test to see if our defense really has improved.
http://espn.go.com/chicago/ncf/story/_/id/7045448/northwestern-wildcats-...
I'm thinking around the 15 range and I really don't want to be higher than that. I am looking forward to next week @ NW because this team has not been on the road yet. If we can win and look good doing it, I may start believing that this team is pretty good. However, I'm not ready to break out the popcorn just yet!!!
speaking for myself... I am not being ornery. This team is better then last year. No doubt about it. However, there are still unknowns with Michigan. Win the next 2, especially beating Sparty in E. Lansing, and I'll be right there with you.
Probably higher than we should be, or at least where most people think we should be. They have reason to believe we shouldn't be there, and we need to prove them wrong.
We should pass Baylor, USF, A&M. If Clemson and Florida lose, we may jump them depending on how close of a game it is. I see us anywhere from 13-16.
Wiscy.
Though I still don't think we deserve it. If we win next week I'll be sold. If we win the next two weeks I'll start thinking b10 championship game.
Most excited is that we beat a team that we should beat the way we should have. We didn't dick around at all and made very little mistakes. We pitched a shut out, held them to little yards and all around dominated. Very different than even the eastern game... Proud of our boys, they look better and better every game.
I think our current ranking of 19 is about right but we'll definitely move up with the losses above us. Doesn't matter much - just gotta keep on winning.
The difference between this team and the teams past is that a bottom-dwelling big 10 team was crushed, even with our 2nd string players on offense for the majority of the 2nd half and 2nd string players on defense for the majority of the 4th quarter. This is all with a flat crowd who didn't give a shit and with players who knew that they had an easy game and still tried to pitch a shutout.
I think Hoke motivates the team for the 2nd true test of the season and we take care of business handily.
I couldn't agree more. We FINALLY made a bad B1G team look bad, as opposed to narrowly winning on the game's last drive. Or, you know, losing.
I'm going with #14.
We will be ranked in the middle teens and this has not been seen in any year of the Rich Rod era and has not been seen since 2008 (When I arrived here at Michigan). This is the greatest year Michigan has had in quite a while and I do not see us losing more than 3 games at all. We will most definitely be 9-3 and could be even better. Illinois and Northwestern do not seem as strong as they showed earlier in the year and Purdue is trash and Iowa got beat by Iowa State. Michigan State barely beat TSIO and they both looked horrible on offense. We looked great all around this week, but we also have gotten better each week. We finally have found a rhythm and look like a solid football team.
Illinois has found ways to close out games, something they struggled with in the past (see today VS NW) MSU's defense looks intimidating especially with how much pressure they got on the QBs. If Denard struggles throwing, they'll be able to overcommit to the run just like they did with Miller today.
Given the way the rest of the Big 10 has played so far (including Nebraska against Wisconsin right now) I really don't think there's a team on our schedule that we can't beat if Hoke and Co. continue to get squeeze every drop of talent out of our guys. I expect that we will lose at least two but at the beginning of the season I was going to be satisfied with 7-5 plus a bowl win. I'm pretty excited about the second half of the schedule to see where we end up.
Great screen name.
But is it as good as dinardogasm? (I ask because I don't know)
Memories of '09 and '10 still have me reluctant, however there were a couple games in both of those seasons that UM lost that could have went either way. I think each of the last 2 years' teams were on the verge of being decent, but youth, injuries, and bad luck with turnovers (or carelessness, take your pick) handicapped them.
With those constraints under control now, for the most part, I'm confident that this team is on the verge of being 'good.' That being said, I dont see why most of you are only confident about Purdue going forward. Without Wisconsin on the schedule, I think Michigan, accross the board, is as talented or more talented than every remaining team they have left to play. I think they will be favored next week, and if they win, Vegas will like them at MSU also. Illinois on the road is a toss-up and Ohio's offense can't possibly be on the same trajectory as our ever improving defense - adequate as it may be. 17 points will win that game.
are we going to a bowl game?
But will there be roses?
Depends if we win the tough games (MSU, Illinois, and Neb). And if TSIO improves enough of their defense to slow down Borges beautiful play calling
Hopefully that question will be anwered next week...which is all that matters right now really.
Can't be lower than 14. Impressive win (over a ridiculously bad team) and lots of bad teams dropping out of the top 20. No one should leapfrog us so as bizarre as it seems; 13-14 is reasonable.
I agree with robmorren2. I was telling a friend of mine earlier today that if everything fell into place perfectly (Bama, Sconsin, Clemson or Va Tech won big) that is exactly where we would end up. Do I think that we would be these teams that we are passing? Shit no! But this is how the system works... And the current system says we'll be #12 when the polls come out tomorrow.
This is the way Bo used to crush the Little Eight back in the day.
It's a very faint whiff, and it's still in the distance, but I'm startng to smell real Michigan football. I don't care who you're playing, 58-0 is a respectable score.
My projections
| AP Top 25 | |||||
| RK | TEAM | RECORD | PTS | RESULT | Proj |
| 1 | LSU (42) | 5-0 | 1471 | W | 1 |
| 2 | Oklahoma (12) | 4-0 | 1422 | W | 2 |
| 3 | Alabama (5) | 5-0 | 1413 | W | 3 |
| 4 | Boise State (1) | 4-0 | 1280 | W | 4 |
| 5 | Oklahoma State | 4-0 | 1209 | DNP | 6 |
| 6 | Stanford | 3-0 | 1205 | Winning 31-19 UCLA | 7 |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 5-0 | 1177 | W 48-17 Neb | 5 |
| 8 | Nebraska | 4-1 | 991 | L 48-17 Wiscy | 15 |
| 9 | Oregon | 3-1 | 985 | DNP | 9 |
| 10 | South Carolina | 4-1 | 950 | L 16-13 Aub | 14 |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | 4-1 | 883 | L 23-3 Clemson | 19 |
| 12 | Florida | 4-1 | 820 | L 38-10 Bama | 16 |
| 13 | Clemson | 5-0 | 744 | W 23-3 VT | 8 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | 2-2 | 734 | L 42-38 Ark | 24 |
| 15 | Baylor | 3-1 | 659 | L 36-35 KSU | 17 |
| 16 | South Florida | 4-1 | 585 | L 44-17 Pitt | NR |
| 17 | Texas | 4-0 | 466 | W | 11 |
| 18 | Arkansas | 4-1 | 434 | W 42-38 TAMU | 10 |
| 19 | Michigan | 5-0 | 417 | W 58-0 Minn | 12 |
| 20 | TCU | 3-2 | 338 | L 40-33 SMU | NR |
| 21 | Georgia Tech | 5-0 | 298 | W | 13 |
| 22 | West Virginia | 4-1 | 280 | W | 20 |
| 23 | Florida State | 2-2 | 239 | DNP | 21 |
| 24 | Illinois | 5-0 | 179 | W | 18 |
| 25 | Arizona State | 3-1 | 112 | Winning 28-20 OrSt | 22 |
And I could see A&M, SC or UF staying ahead of us too. Thanks for putting this up though, makes it a ton easier to visualize. I'm thinking we'll end up around 14th +/-1
TAMU joins the two loss club, and the only member of that club in the Top 25 heading into today was Florida State @23. TAMU has to fall into the 20s.
South Carolina staying ahead of us would be reasonable, but I'm figuring the voters will move them down a few spots after a loss, which leaves a window.
Maybe I'm biased against VT. I picked them in the Pick Six contest (based on what seemed to be a cakewalk schedule) and was afraid they'd get exposed today. I didn't see the game, and the total yards don't look as bad as the 23-3 score suggests. Still, they are now a one-loss team that was beaten soundly.
Nebraska & Florida got destroyed. (I think we could stay within 31 of Wiscy). Neither has a validating win against a ranked opponent. (Neither do we, but we also don't have a blowout loss.)
ND might slip in this week. If not, they have AFA next week and a bad USC team after that. I'm not Lou Holtz here, but I think they could win 9-10 games this season and be a good team, ranked in the high teens or so, by the end of the season.
I still hope you're wrong though...It just seems crazy to me that we'd be knocking on the door of the top 10 without a win over a ranked opponent, or a road win, or any preseason hype. It makes me incredibly nervous.
Wouldn't be totally shocking to leapfrog Arkansas. Probably not justified, but 58-0 might sway some voters given how close their game was and we aren't very far behind in votes as it is. Somewhere between 11-13 is probably right. I would be surprised with 14 or lower.
Nice double
9-3 is a WORST case scenario - and sparty, ohio & neb (my potential losses) are all eminently beatable. A top 10 finish seems probable after what was a VERY encouraging day today both froma playbook and defensive standpoint.
It's not a "worst case" scenario. I've seen better Michigan teams than this one lose conference games they should have won by multiple TDs. Also, I think you are forgetting @Illinois, which looks like it will be one of the most difficult games left on the schedule. Plus TSIO could also be much improved by the time UM plays them, with the return of the suspended players and additional maturation for MIller.
Still, I agree with what I think is the spirit of your post--that the most likely way to finish 9-3 is by winning all "easy" games and losing the marquee matchups.
Squeked out a 23-20 win over Westerm Michigan last week and was down 28-17 late in the 3rd quarter to NW when Persa left the game. No way does Illinois win that game today without the Persa injury. Both games were in Champaign, im not impressed.
not saying we deserve it, but we are 5-0, and that's what happens. The right teams lost in front of us this week, and Nebraska lost big enough to drop below us. This is slightly terrifying, because looking at the schedule, what game isn't winnable right now?
Yes, we may go as high as probably #12, but many, many voters and columnists remember that Michigan has gone 4-0 to start the season the past 2 years, and then crashed in flaming ruin once the away games and B1G schedule started. It's mentioned in every Rittenberg/Mandel/Forde/etc. piece I read.
However high we go, I think we'll be SEVERELY punished for a loss, more than almost any other team in our position would be, due to our reputation for collapsing down the stretch.
Hopefully we can just win out all the way and avoid that bias entirely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us drop 10 spots or more after our first loss this year.
Solution: Just win them all.
I agree--there do seem to be a lot of writers and commentators who are just waiting for the bottom to drop out on us again. I think that makes these next two weeks huge as far as perception.
Let's not get caught up in the rankings. As long as we stay "Bi-Winning" (non-conf & B1G season), we should be good. Let's restart this thread after we dump-truck little brother...
I'm really juiced to move up in the rankings - this year however - I'm not so sure. Not drinking the kool-aid just yet but getting closer. If we win the next two weeks on the road, pour me a big o glass. Denard looked better yesterday and the D is playing well. Getting a little more excited each week.
I think we'll be #12 this week.
