Lost recruits and their ultimate impact

Submitted by poseidon7902 on

I have no idea how to even begin to do this, but there are people here who've followed recruiting far more than I have and have better metrics to work off of.  I wonder though if anyone has done a comparison to see what impact Michigan's highly sought after recruits have had wherever they have landed.  Obviously taking into consideration coaches and the level of competition it would be interesting to see how much we have really 'lost' out on.  Just something I think about when I'm driving in the horrible traffic in Atlanta.  

Class of 1817

February 6th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^

I was thinking a bit about this too, mainly concerning running backs.

Over the past 5 years, the highest touted RB names we were in on on that jump to mind were Dee Hart, Ty Isaac, Damien Harris, Derrick Green, and Brionte Dunn.

One made no impact at his first program, one has made no impact thus far, one is TBD, and M ended up with the most promising one anyway...in addition to the biggest actual Recruiting Get, Derrick Green.

Which made me remember, while I was in traffic, that recruiting is a highly speculative art, and thank we're gonna be OK.

Steve in PA

February 6th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^

I am thinking of Weber as Dee Hart II. There was much weeping and gnashing of teeth when we didn't him under some very questionable circumstances. I think in the big picture that didn't turn out so bad. Then there's Treadwell, also questionable circumstances, who turned out to be a stud (pre-injury). I think if anything the previous staff showed that great classes don't matter if they don't get coached up.

dipshit moron

February 6th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^

funny you brought that up. yesterday i found a box in one of my closets that had a college football preview issue . phil steeles 2009 issue. that was the year denard and forcier were recruited.

   in the back is the top 500 incomeing freshman. its amaizing how many of the top players listed i never heard of. so in 6 years only a handfull ever rose above the rest..  but you see alot of stars that are way down the lists.

   that is the reason this recriting is so out of hand, to rank these classes now when these players have only played against other hs players is a crap shoot.

   they show the rankiings by class for 6 years back to 2004. for example michigan had the 6-5-4-9-9-9 rated classes. osu was 9-9-8-7-2-4.  so maybe there is something to this coaching business.

 

Specter

February 6th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^

I remember really hoping Hoke could bring back Jake Fisher (OT) after he decommited when RR got canned.  Jake went on to become an AA and the leader of Oregons o-line last year.  He could have provided some leadership and stability to our o-lines the last 2 years, and maybe given DG some confidence in the pocket. 

turtleboy

February 6th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^

In many cases it's the schools who are lucky to land the kids, but with Harbaugh it's the kids who are lucky to sign for the school. Similar to the way Narduzzi has turned low rated prospects into high draft picks, Harbaugh and the assistants he hires seem to have a way of consistently turning non stars into NFL players. Can't wait to see what he does with more at Michigan.

Magnus

February 6th, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^

I've done some studies going back a few years (and I'm a little behind), but I usually wait until their recruiting class moves past their college years:

2007 class (LINK)

2006 class (LINK)

2005 class (LINK)

SysMark

February 6th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^

You could really kill yourself dwelling on players that didn't come to Michigan.

Also, for every one that didn't come there could be a really popular player who came in their place.  Best approach is to recruit as best you can then roll with the players you have.

MChem83

February 6th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^

If we'd gotten all those guys, they'd have languished in mediocrity under the tutelage of Hoke and his staff, just like the guys we did get have. All the recruting stars in the world don't mean squat if you can't develop them into on-field talent (just ask Texas, USC or Florida if we're not enough of an example). If you really can develop players effectively and consistently, you can succeed without all the pie-in-the-sky recruits, as many programs do.

alum96

February 6th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^

Considering UM often offers 140-200 a year and Brown Bear is willing  to go back a decade this should be a quick and short project for him.

Don

February 6th, 2015 at 1:48 PM ^

who didn't amount to anything for one reason or another.

Fr' instance, in the 2005 class we got three 4-star DLs: James McKinney, Eugene Germany, and Marcus Slocum. I think McKinney got injured, Germany got booted, and Marcus achieved a peculiar kind of fame that had nothing to do with playing on the field.

Not to mention a guy who might have helped RR greatly in 2008 had he been available: Antonio Bass.

Yooper

February 6th, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^

Assume for the moment that (1) he would have been a solid citizen at Michigan; and (2) he actually was sincere about coming to Michigan (I know it is hard to wrap your mind around these assumptions):  Rich Rod would have had someone to run his offense from the get-go.  There would have been more wins early.  Who knows where the ceiling would be but as for which one recruit miss changed things in a big way, it has to be Pryor. 

AZBlue

February 6th, 2015 at 9:44 PM ^

if he had gotten Pryor.  I suspect the bowl streak would not have ended (albeit probably 6-6) and the staff would have had a little more time to figure out how to recruit and win at a bigtime school like Michigan.  I am not sure that RR would have had the success that Meyer is having at OSU, but again he probably wouldn't have had to face him as Tressel might still be at OSU if not for Pryor.  (inset TP dumb and dumber money and cars gif here...)

Not that this EVER would have happened because he was always in the bag(-man) for OSU.

Maize and Blue…

February 6th, 2015 at 10:53 PM ^

Ryan Mallett, what might he have done at Michigan if Lloyd had stayed on another four years, or if he had been QB here during a time where we had a more traditional offense ? There is more than one way to "lose" a recruit.