Cheer you up? If we take care of business, we are about to win the big ten.
Looking at next year's hoops roster, plus recruiting
You were an adequate corner
EVERYONE is coming back. I have that feeling.
PG - Walton, Spike
SG - LeVert,
SF - Stauskas
PF - GR3, Irvin
C - Mitch, Horford
Eight deep and add in Donnal coming off a redshirt. We are stacked in 2014-15.
2015-16 could get interesting if we lose Mitch, GR3, Stauskas and LeVert. Would definitely need Donnal, among others to step up by then.
If everyone comes back, we are over 1 scholarship for next year.
Sam Webb addressed that in a round-up this week. One option is to medical Austin Hatch (i.e. he would never see the floor).
If GRIII stays, he may end up losing his starting job to Irvin.
Yeah I don't think Zak is going to start at the 4, probably ever at UM. He's playing some spot duty there this year because that is where PT is available but with Donnal and Wilson on the roster he will most likely be the primary backup at both wing spots next year. As far as being over the limit, I'm pretty sure that will work itself out. As you mentioned Hatch might take a medical or another possibility I've heard mentioned was Beifeldt could possibly pay his own way for a year. I still think at least one person will leave after this year, most likely Stauskas in my opinion.
I am totally inspired by him but it seems a lot to expect him to contribute at a D-I level. He's only played in three games this season for his HS team. I would be thrilled to see him play for us but it seems unrealistic. Does anyone know how his scholarship would work if he didn't join the basketball team his first year? Could he be on a general scholarship (not counting against our 13) and then join the team in a later year? Does signing a LOI rule that out? I'm starting to feel a little like Tom Crean or Nick Saban, oy.
If that happens I really have a feeling that Max Bielfeldt might leave because he is buried on the bench and would be next year with Donnal coming off the Redshirt. If he did I would not blame him at all.
Then like others have said the Austin hatch situation is uncertain.
He's going to be a part of the team...I just don't think he's going to be counted against the scholarships.
There has to be a way to honor his scholarship, but basically treat him like a walk-on.
I still think EVERYONE comes back like we saw at Florida and UNC years back, but as the season wears on, winter wears on, school wears on, guys just get tired of it and want to do something else. So every day, I am less and less confident.
If guys leave, I don't think it's because they want the money or even think it's the highest spot in the draft they'd go...I just think they'd leave so they can do something else and they don't have to "play school."
However, again, I've got them ALL staying. BUT, after 15-16, I have them ALL leaving...or at least a lot of them.
We need to replace Morford.
back next year, barring something unforseen.
but I think Mitch will be back, barring a return from surgery and another tremendous tourney run. GRIII will also return, imho. I'm not sure about Nik. A departure for the Association would not surprise me.
But honestly, I'm not concerned about Coach B with regard to recruiting... The man has earned my trust with his ability to evaluate talent, and our success so far this season, after making it to the Tournament Finals will certainly help.
Crack open a cold one and enjoy our run to the B1G Championship! GO BLUE!
For 2015, I think the main priorities should be a guy who can play the 2/3 and shoot, as well as a 4/5 guy. Walton, in my estimation, is unlikely to be an early NBA draft entrant, so we're set on PG until 2016. As such, I think we can wait til the 2016 class to take a PG, so there's no need to be desperate if our top 2015 PG prospects don't bite.
Predictions for 2015 class:
-Kennard is ideal for the 2/3 spot, but I have a feeling it'll end up being someone who's not heavily on our radar right now.
-I think we'll snag Ellenson for the 4/5 spot if the coaches really go after him, and I think they'll end up adding Boudreux too.
-As to a PG for 2015, I think they strike out with Brunson and bank it for 2016.
With a bigger body in the middle (be it Doyle, Donnal, or someone else) a 6'7" PF like Boudreaux could excel. I do have unpleasant flashbacks of DeShawn Sims being forced to play center. Ellenson, Boudreaux, and a tallish guard would be great. Any gain for us that also means drinking other Big Ten milkshakes = gold.
I think Donnal is going to be really, really good. Like 2nd (possibly 1st) team All B1G by the end of his time here. He's got a mean streak, great court vision, he's a good inside/out shooter, and has solid athleticism. He's going to be perfect for this offense.
I'm fairly confident in saying UM will land Jalen Coleman. He is more of a combo guard but can certainly run the point and he is, as Stephen Bardo likes to say, "a shot creator".
I mean, we have a coach who has proven masterful with identifying and/or developing talent. Beilein has gotten in on guys like Burke, Hardaway, LeVert, Stauskas, and Robinson long before other experts and schools were excited about them.
If there is one thing I'm not worried about, it's the future of our basketball program. If there's another thing I'm not worried about, it's the present of our basketball program.
I wouldn't be concerned.
If we don't have a bunch of 4+ star guys committed early I wonder why.
Wasn't Rickey Doyle a recruit on the movie Blue Chips?
Mitch will be back. GRIII is 50/50. Stauskas very well may go.
I think you're right. I'd bet Stauskus and GRIII leave, and McGary comes back.
Stauskas is listed as the #17 prospect by Chris Mannix at SI. If he's got that kind of grade, he should probably go. Getting picked in the first round gets him 3 years of guaranteed money, plus two more team option years. He could come back and get into the back end of the lottery, but waiting a year for a jump of 5-6 places may not make sense financially.
He's not NBA ready defensively, but almost no college players are (NBA defensive systems are just much more complex).
I didn't realize defense was played in the NBA
Read Zach Lowe on grantland. You'll learn an incredible amount about how defense in the NBA works and how much attention coaching staffs pay to defensive design and coordination.
I think the whole "NBA teams don't play defense" is a lazy statement that is used far too often. The difference between college and the NBA is that a typical college team only has 1 or 2 guys that can knock down perimeter shots with a defender in their face while in the NBA almost every player on the court can make contested shots. Anyone that thinks there is no defense in the NBA I would urge you to watch the next Pacers game.
I think if GRIII goes to the NBA before he learns to create his own shot and not dissapear from games, he won't last too long. That said, he probably would still get drafted by some GM who doesn't know better.
For Stauskas, I'm not sure what else he can gain from another year in college. He's not going to pick up new facets to his game that don't already exist.
LeVert to me looks like the highest NBA potential guy on the team, save McGary, but he'll hopefully be overlooked for another year.
We won't rely on Frosh, but we'll need Walton to start (I love Spike, but DW will be the man), Irvin may push for some starts even with everone back. With MM and Horford Donnal won't start, but we'll need his depth.
Maybe saying "we won't be forced to start freshmen" would have been better.
So you're not buying the notion that he is not just a shooter?
He can dissappear at times, but that's absurd if you think he has disappeared. He just put up 25 against Sparty.
My inexpert read is that we'll one, perhaps two departures. Nik and his family have made his NBA aspirations clear, and Mitch and GR3 all but publicly stated this was their last year after they came back. Things haven't been great for the last two since then, but I'd be very surprised to see 3 guys who want the league all return, even if none are lottery picks.
We've had an early entry just about every year recently, and only Burke was assured a high selection. I don't see that trend breaking, and I wouldn't get my hopes up for it if I were you.
and wait to see if there are any early departures.
Dion Harris SR
Jerret Smith SO
Lester Abrams SR*
Brent Petway SR
Courtney Simms SR
6th man Ronald Coleman JR
That team was a huge disapointment. Obviously next years team would have a different level of talent though.
The year before (2005-2006) was, to me, the biggest disappointment of the Amaker years. Horton + the lineup you just listed should have been an NCAA tourney team. And Graham Brown, too? And Chris Hunter? Yeah...2005-2006 was hugely disappointing.
Because if there's one thing you count on Michigan Men to do, it's find something to worry about. Is the team bad? Fret. Is the team good? Fret about it not being good some time in the future.
I don't always worry about things over which I have zero control. But when I do, it's about future Michigan rosters.
Stay thirsty, my friends.
Jordan Morgan who is a 5th yr senior. With Horford's foul tendency and McGary's bad back, Center might be our weakest position.
There's a whole lot of basketball yet to be played before Nik needs to make a decision. Keep in mind that at this time last year, nobody was predicting the possibility of Mitch leaving early.
Nik, Glenn, and Mitch are all as good as gone as Burke and Hardaway were last year. Not that I wouldn't love for them to stay, but they made the decision last year they wanted to have one more year of "fun" before becoming professionals.
Next year's team is still going to be tremendously talented with a lineup of Walton, LeVert, Irvin, Donnal, and Horford. Not to mention a junior Albrecht and incoming freshmen Doyle and Chatman.
Mitch is coming off back surgery and not having played in months. Who knows how able he will even be to work out for teams in May and June. With those major question marks it is very likely he will not get a first round grade. At that point, returning another season ballances the injury risk with a huge potential reward of playing himself into the lottery.
Plus, this draft is supposed to be loaded. 2015, not so much.
And no first round means no guaranteed money and a very likely perms trip to the D league.
from our on court success last year. Everyone said that 2015 would be the year that paid off, and it still may, but we sure haven't seen that yet. Beyond that, I really don't see anything to worry about. Assuming Mitch and Glenn come back next year we will be stacked.
If the worst happens 2 or 3 of the Big 3 go then hopefully they get drafted in the first round which only helps us on the recruiting trail in the future.
In other words, don't fret. We'd all love to get more 5 star recruits but things are trending up either way.
If we only lose 1 of Stauskas, McGary, and GRIII then we are probably a preseason top 5 team. We'd be looking at 2014-2015 like we did when Burke and Hardaway Jr. came back last year. These last 4-5 years of Michigan Basketball have been so great especially with the Detroit Pistons being down, it's reminded me how much I love basketball. It's a real testament to how good the Michigan Basketball program has the potential to be.
because we have no available scholarships. Unless someone leaves prior to exhausting their eligibility. Maybe some top recruits are waiting to commit as soon as there is an open spot.
As Sam Webb discussed earlier this week on WTKA, you can oversign by 1 in basketball so we could still take at least 1 recruit right now and then we would have to get back down to 13 schollys by next November (which will not be a problem, trust me). So there is absolutely no bar to getting at least 1 commit in the early signing period.
A lot can and will change with this roster between now and next November.
You're mixing up committed players with signed players. There's no limit on the number of players that can commit to a program. The limit comes into play when players sign. At that point, the Big Ten allows you to sign one more player than the 13-player limit. The team then must get back down to 13 by the following summer.
For example, in November 2013 Michigan got NLIs from 4 players. That put them one over the 13-player limit. They need to get down to 13 or fewer by this summer.
The main point is that 2015 recruits are in no way affected by scholarship availability at this point.
Recruits know that a lot can happen before either the early signing period or the late signing period with the 2014 class being the perfect example.
Under Beilein, Michigan has been over the limit on commits before. If I recall correctly, the last time was prior to the transfers of Smotrycz, Christian, and Brundidge. So that isn't the reason no one has committed yet for 2015.
Donnal seems like a center. Doesn't handle the ball well so he can't come off of ballscreens and would be more effective in PnR and PnP than creating his own shot. Doyle fits this mold, too.
Glenn and Mitch will come back if they don't get that first round guarantee but Nik is gone. Luckily, I think Nik is the easiest to replace. However, if Nik continues trending downward, maybe not.
Irvin is a better shooter/scorer than GR3 but that's all he is and GR3 does so many small things that goes unoticed that I just can't see Irvin passing him up next year.
Something like Brunson (I worry about Kansas or Duke) + Coleman/Davis (take both if Brunson goes elsewhere) + Boudreaux would be a solid recruiting class imo
I think when Irvin gains some weight and becomes more comfortable in the college game he will go back to being the dominant player I saw many times in high school. The kid I have watched this year is nothing like the player I saw prior. Zak has one of the best mid-range games I have seen and also is a much better ball handler than he has shown this year.
I don't see McGary leaving. The draft is loaded this year, and there's no way he'll be a lottery pick if he hasn't seen the court in seven months and scouts only have his performance in last year's tourney to go on.
GRIII would be wise to wait another year. He's clearly got a lot of potential, but he hasn't put it together yet.
Stauskas is 50/50. He's obviously made tremendous strides from last season, but he still needs to diversify his game a little more so teams can't shut him down so easily.
Caris is the wild card. The kid seems to improve with every game. If he has a McGary-like tourney performance and Michigan makes a deep run, he could become the most likely candidate to leave by the end of the season.
He's not even in the first round in most mock drafts, and as you say, he can't do much to change it.
We have Coach B...He has earned my trust regardless of the roster
He has no mean streak. You've heard a myth. He was bullied by all of the inner city Toledo teams. If he works out like Caris and Nick did in the last off season, then he does have potential.
If hatch was a bama football recruit Saban would have texted him while he was in the icu to tell him he no longer had an offer
When do we start to see the benefits of the tourney run last year in recruiting?