Looking ahead to UM @ MSU
It’s difficult to say how much the weather affected the offenses in yesterday’s MSU-OSU showdown in Columbus. There were several fumbles early on, including on snaps that went between Cousins’ legs and through the hands of MSU’s punter. But the offenses continued to struggle even though the weather seemed to improve by the mid-to-late second quarter. With that qualifier, here is what I took from MSU’s performance:
Offensively, their line was underwhelming, but not as bad as I expected. The Spartans were able to consistently gain yards on the ground, and while Cousins was pressured often, the line did a reasonable job of giving him time. Bell and Baker did not have huge games, but like always they ran hard and consistently fell forward, picking up what yards were available. In the receiving corps., BJ Cunningham dominated—and it was a good thing for Sparty that he did, because all of their other receivers were practically non-existent. Cousins managed the game well but the OSU pressure did force him into some bad throws and even some uncharacteristically poor decisions (He was intercepted once in the end zone and I recall OSU defenders dropping two other INTs). In typical Spartan fashion, penalties and turnovers killed multiple Spartan drives or they would have easily scored 20+ points.
The OSU offense was so incompetent it was difficult to tell how much was the product of good Spartan defense and how much was just the Suckeyes sucking. William Gholston (Grr.) destroyed OSU with multiple sacks; Bullough and Worthy also played well. However, they really didn’t need to worry about the pass all game.
Based on this game alone, it looks like the keys to beating MSU are (i) get pressure on Cousins, (ii) contain Cunningham, and (iii) use draws & screens to slow down the Spartan pass rush. Oh yeah, and (iv) run the ball, like the winner of that game always does.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:24 PM ^
I am looking ahead to Northwestern first. If we beat them then we should be 8-4 at worst with 10-2 a real possibility.
I am going to the MSU game, I hope we win... I think the key to the game will be getting pressure on Kirk Cousins. He seems to get flustered if you get to him. Luckily MSU's Oline hasn't looked perfect.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:24 PM ^
Let's not get ahead of ourselves...
NU is the definition of a "trap" game: on the road, under the lights, against a team that may have a worse record than they deserve because their quarterback has been injured.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:38 PM ^
And now he's injured again.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:47 PM ^
Can I say something real quick, Western is good. They beat Uconn and western's qb set a school passing yard record.
I know we were all nervous after 3-0 because we snuck a win against ND struggled with Western and the first quarter against eastern was terrible. But hopefully the success Western is having can somewhat change the perception of this 5-0 start as oppossed to past years 5-0.
Western is a good team, and we handled them. ND is a good team and we won, Eastern 1st quarter aside we blew them out. SDSU is a good squad, not a problem. Minnesota we blow out a big ten oponent. If we can handle Northwestern this weekend, we are in a great position to make some real noise, as oppossed to what we have done in the past.
Go Blue. Go Wolverines. Go tigs
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:22 PM ^
Agreed. My younger brother attends there, and I have kept track of them more than I usually would. They were competitive against Illinois, and to a lesser extent against us as well. The insane reporter from Kalamazoo who said Alex Carder was the best quarterback in the state is still insane, but man, not by much. They should roll through most of the MAC schedule at the rate they are going.
October 2nd, 2011 at 6:12 PM ^
is garbage.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^
Let's not look ahead, let's get to 6-0 first. That will make everything more interesting in two weeks.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:31 PM ^
????
Baker and Bell together gained all of 86 yards on 26 carries, for a 3.3 average. MSU had a net 71 yds rushing.
MSU's defense is pretty good, but they were also fortunate they faced woefully inept QBs and a temporarily undermanned OSU offense.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:43 PM ^
Err MSU has the #1 defense in the country per the latest rankings. They appear to be more than just pretty good...
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:52 PM ^
besides Notre Dame is absolutely pathetic. youngstown st, florida atlantic and an ohio team with little to no talent on offense it appears.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:55 PM ^
4 of the 5 games they've played have been against way outmatched opponents who gave up before half or just were plain inept at running their offense. Notre Dame was their only real opponent who could move the ball. Check their rankings at the end of the season. Their D is above average at the moment but the secondary is their biggest problem which is why they run shell the whole time. When a team forces them out of their shell, they get torn to shreds ala Notre Dame.
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:55 PM ^
I'm not sure what you mean by "torn to shreds." MSU's D held ND's offense significantly below their average (also kept Floyd very much in check). The final score was not indicative of how close that game really was, particularly considering the kickoff return, and a Cousins interception at the end when the game was still in reach and MSU was about to score.
October 2nd, 2011 at 3:02 PM ^
Yes, and that ND int near the endzone came from a drive that started at like the ND 30 because ND muffed a punt. That also took a drive away from ND that they could have gained yards. Same with the KO return took a chance away from the O to rack up yards. Now of course the ND O could have also been destroyed by MSU, true, but they would have probably gained at least some yardage and or points considering the rest of the game. MSU's D stepped up in the second half, but I also don't know how much ND sat on their 18 point lead and control of the ball game either.
October 2nd, 2011 at 3:05 PM ^
All good points. I guess I'm only contesting the use of very conclusory overstatements such as "torn to shreds."
It's neither that dramatic nor that simple IMHE.
October 2nd, 2011 at 3:24 PM ^
I agree. The only time I've seen MSU get "torn to shreds" (I've only watched the ND and OSU games too), was during the majority of the 1st half against ND. Otherwise, they have looked very very good. D has been very, very impressive. High motor, in the right places, don't miss tackles. All signs of a well coached team. I honestly don't know if we win that game.
October 2nd, 2011 at 3:03 PM ^
I don't know about the rest of their games, but MSU ran the complete opposite of the shell against OSU. The brought a ton of heat and played close to the LOS. It worked very, very, well.
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:09 PM ^
Honestly, who have they played? Someone posted the total offensive rankings for the teams MSU has played ina different thread, and besides ND, none were ranked higher than 80 something I think. Yes, they've dominated them, but they should. Then the only good team they played, they gave up 31 points to. I wouldn't be surprised if the group of 4 teams MSU has played besides ND is the worst group of 4 teams any of the top defenses in the country has played.
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:21 PM ^
I have thrown out Youngstown state from all stats because they are FCS and don't count
MSU opponents Scoring O/Total O:
Florida Atlantic - 119/119
Notre Dame - 75/29
Central Michigan - 99/96
Ohio State - 91/108
Now the important stuff
MSU opponents avg. yards per game/performance against MSU
FAU - 204/48
ND - 449/275
CMU - 335.2/112
OSU - 308.2/178
MSU opponents avg. points per game/performance against MSU
FAU - 12.8/0
ND - 27.0/31
CMU - 20.6/7
OSU - 23.8/7
The take away here is that MSU probably has a GREAT defense. Is it really #1 in the nation? Probably not. The effects of playing an FCS school, a woeful FAU and CMU, and quite possibly the worst OSU offense in a couple decades overinflates that ranking quite a bit. I'm actually pretty impressed with the MSU D but they aren't LSU or Alabama. MSU is entering the real meat of their schedule and this month will probably reveal whether MSU has a great D or an elite D. My bet is on the former, but I wouldn't count out the latter either.
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:27 PM ^
I think your comparison idea is smart, but take it one step further. Who have their opponents played to get to their avg. yards and points per game?
FAU - Probably had one of the most difficult starting schedules in the country. Holy crap. Held to 3 points by Florida, put up 14 against an Auburn team that is a shadow of the NC winners and just lost to fellow Sun-Belt team Louisiana, but put up 34 points. Quite legitimate to hold this team to 0 first downs. +1 into the great defense argument.
ND - Anyone who watched that game knows that Brian Kelly went into the second half and said, "we're shutting this thing down and not losing this game. Tommy Rees you get to play handoff-maker." ND could've put up much bigger numbers if they wanted to. No change in great defense argument.
CMU - This is not one of Brian Kelly's Central teams. They put 21 on South Carolina State from the mighty MEAC. 13 points against Kentucky, which sounds respectable at first. Then you realize Kentucky only beat Western 14-3 and Central is their only other win. Plus they got shellacked by Western.
OSU - having watched every single one of their games, I can tell you this is a bad OSU team. Miami shut them down, save for an interior running game, and then promptly lost to Kansas State (who just beat Baylor, but Baylor's strength is not their D.) Anemic offense against Toledo. Put up points on Colorado, but who couldn't put up points on Colorado? I can't type Colorado without cringing about Cordell Stewart. Missing Mike Adams and Posey have been HUGE. Plus Bollman called one of the worst offensive games I've ever seen yesterday. Seriously. I saw a comment from a Buckeyes fan that said "who would've thought after all these years that Tressel was actually orchestrating the offense?" That's really saying something. Braxton Miller played bad enough yesterday to have Captain Armpunts Bauserman see the field.
They're a good defense, but they are far from great. I'd say when all is said and done, they're a top 15ish defense in the country. I reserve greatness for someone you can't argue is outside of the top 10.
October 2nd, 2011 at 3:17 PM ^
Don's analysis makes sense here; outside of ND exactly who is Sparty putting up these dominant stats? Ohio State's offense was limited by suspension and QB terrible. Running up stats on Youngstown State, Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic isn't exactly a murderers row. Dominating defense against those teams, sure? Are they really the best in the country? Hardly.
As an aside ND's net yards rushing against Sparty was 114 while Sparty had 29 against Manti Te'o et al. ND passed for 160...because they didn't need to do anything more. Sparty's defence looks decent but far from dominant.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:32 PM ^
"Based on this game alone, it looks like the keys to beating MSU are (i) get pressure on Cousins, (ii) contain Cunningham, and (iii) use draws & screens to slow down the Spartan pass rush. Oh yeah, and (iv) run the ball, like the winner of that game always does." - EGD
Good observations, but I think you may have jumped the gun on this thread by a week. Given that ours is a team under reconstruction essentially, even despite performing towards the upper limit of expectations, I'd rather we discuss this after the Northwestern game, especially since we'll have a little data on how we look on the road this year as well as more to discuss on the progress of the offense and defense.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:33 PM ^
I don't like how the spartans have two weeks to prepare for Michigan. just freaks me out
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:38 PM ^
I do like that we showed a lot more on offense yesterday, probably with a lot more tricks coming. It probably has them freaking out...
EDIT: And maybe somebody else can confirm this, but I don't think bye weeks have been too friendly to B1G teams in the recent past. I think it's easier to lose focus when preparing for a team for 2 weeks straight.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:38 PM ^
I wouldn't be surprised if Borges threw that in there just to force MSU to waste hours upon hours of practice and film time to prepare for that two quarterback set that we probably won't even use.
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:12 PM ^
You can't say that a new set with Denard as a wingback and a few trick plays carries the same weight from a mental standpoint as an extra week to watch film and prepare. Michigan is a team Dantonio clearly likes to see lose more than his own team win. MD is a child with an inferiority complex but he will do whatever it takes to beat us because as long as he does he's safe and will continue to be worshipped there.
I am as ecstatic as anyone else about, 5-0, #11, hanging a number like that on a B1G opponent, etc.; however, the chips are down next Saturday. On the road, at night, with a potentially injured, but very solid, quarterback, it's going to be a test. Let's not look too far ahead just yet.
Go Blue.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:37 PM ^
Yeah, but bye-weeks kill momentum too. They could spend the next two weeks riding high because of a good win in the Horseshoe, and come out in two weeks looking like they haven't played in two weeks. I would be more worried if they had lost the OSU game and had the two weeks to re-group.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^
This makes sense generally I imagine.
But if you buy into the "Dantonio Michigan Obsession" theory, as has been articulated (or at least mentioned) by the likes of Brian, the situation you mention is kind of out the window.
(BTW, I think there's merit to that theory; MD really appears to have it out for M on a personal level, and in past years MSU has shown up more in the M game than in any other, particularly the 2009 game, notwithstanding the latter half of the fourth quarter). I doubt MD lets his guys lose focus at all.
In that light, it seems to me that the MSU bye week can only hurt M, if anything.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:49 PM ^
I think Moo U comes out slow because of this. We haven't showed everything yet so no worries from me.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:58 PM ^
MSU is 1-5 under Dantonio after a lay-off (bye week or bowl game prep). I am not saying that UM will win because of this nugget, just pointing out that MSU hasn't really fared all that well with extra time.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^
This is exactly what we should not be doing. Beat the Wildcats!
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:38 PM ^
I understand the logic, but really, the players and coaches need to foucs us NW. We as fans can speculate about anything we want to without acutally affecting the team it turns out.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:41 PM ^
Given that I will be neither playing nor coaching against Northwestern, I feel comfortable in saying that there's not much potential for harm in me looking ahead to the MSU game.
With that said, it looks like maybe the biggest factor will be the amount of Sparty No-type substance coming from Cousins's arm. He had a horrible non-weather-related pick yesterday and in general seems to bounce between smooth efficiency and bat-shit insanity.
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:41 PM ^
Don't look ahead dude. We have a difficult night game on the road next weekend. Let's take care of business first before we start talking MSU...
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:47 PM ^
Asshole!
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:38 PM ^
Seriously. I guess I should have clarified that I (a) am not a player or a coach and (b) was directing this thread at other people who are neither players nor coaches.
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:46 PM ^
And while you're at it, "2 and 2 always makes a fiiiive."
This is a great response to the thread critics, who now have the burden of saying how fans' internet blog posts affect the coaches' and players' game preparation. (FWIW, I have no problem with the thread - it beats this Lions game so far.)
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:54 PM ^
Yeah, I think there's probably just an unusually mean-spirited crowd on the board this morning. It's usually like that after we only win by 58. Besides, they make some good points. I mean, who would be interested in discussing a team that we don't even play for two whole weeks, especially after they just played a nothing game against an irrelevant team from Ohio? I don't know what I was thinking. I probably should have started a thread about the Northwestern-Illinois game, even though I didn't watch it.
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^
I negged your op for "suckeyes". I doubt I was alone. It was fine otherwise.
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:21 PM ^
The "Don't look ahead!!!!" meme nicely illustrates the difference between a timeless bit of repeated wisdom and a really, really stupid cliche. With the latter, there's no thought given to what it actually means and implies.
October 2nd, 2011 at 11:21 PM ^
You can't control that! What if Denard reads that and it is the sole reason he melts down on Saturday????
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^
so I know even less than I usually do, but does does OSU have no one on their D line besides Hankins? No DE's? I guess they don't have any dominant LBs or CBs either. Stunning. I thought they'd move through the Sparty line with ease. Has MSU improved on the offensive front? It seems unlikely they could do that in 2 weeks.
I picked OSU to because the Colorado game made me somehow forget they have Threet/Sheridan at QB. Sparty may have looked good on D, but when the other team has no quarterback, it's easy to set up both run and pass blitzes. Also, OSU seems like a very poorly coached team at the moment.
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:10 PM ^
OSU's play calling on O and D utterly baffeled me. They didn't bring a lot of pressure, they kept their corners 8-10 yards off consistantly on D. The run D was there, but considering the offensive production they were getting, they did nothing to try and make a big play on D (and the one big play the could have had, they dopped the pick 6). On offense, do they know what a screen pass is? MSU was bringing 6 guys consistantly, and they still never tried a screen pass. I can't tell you how many times a safety was in on a tackle at the LOS too. They also tried way to many slow developing pass routes when you have a freshman QB getting pressure all the time. I don't know know if they still would have won, but geez, maybe their coordinators deserve the flack they've been getting. I also truely believe they are missing the leadership of Tressel. They don't have an identity
October 2nd, 2011 at 12:58 PM ^
MSU: Strengths: Defense
Obvious glaring deficiencies: Offensive line
Michigan: Strengths: Denard
Obvious glaring deficiencies: None? When was the last time we could say that?
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:02 PM ^
FWIW, MSU's O-line deficiencies were neither obvious nor glaring yesterday against a decent OSU defense. (IMHE, of course - I would have agreed with you in past weeks, however).
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:05 PM ^
Eh, they did only ave like 3 yards a run, which is still way under their production from last year. The pass rush from OSU didn't look very good, but MSU also use a lot of quick passes because OSU kept their corners in the GERG alignment, aka 8-10 yards off all the time no matter the down and distance.
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:17 PM ^
The O-line still has problems.
But based only on the game yesterday, would you really use words like "glaring" and "obvious" to describe such problems? They weren't either based on my viewing.
I'd describe their performance yesterday as "decent" myself. Perhaps even better than that given the quality of the OSU defense. They gave the offense every chance to succeed that anyone could have expected, and without Roushar's/Cousins' stupid decisions/bad throws, that game is more like 21 or even 28 to 7.
October 2nd, 2011 at 1:22 PM ^
Yeah, I imagine they'll get better as the year goes on, but ND's front seven destroyed them by being aggressive. I did not see any such aggresive play calling from OSU. They took more of a passive bend/don't break mentality. They really shouldn't have done this considering their O could be counted on for nothing.
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:03 PM ^
Fair enough.
That all may be true. But again, I'm only contesting the use of the terms "glaring" and "obvious."
If I was to root for M in two weeks, I'd have two lines of questions in mind on this topic:
(1) is the MSU O-line as bad as people have said they are, or are they improving? (On this question, yesterday suggests they're not that bad, though they very well may be for reasons you mention).
(2) Even if they are that bad, are the M front 7 as talented as ND's, or even OSU's, so as to be able to exploit how bad the MSU O-line allegedly is to the same extent? (You all know better about this question, but my at-a-glance answer is "no.") And even assuming they are that talented, will Dantonio have a series of packages set up to nuetralize M's aggression/blitzes? (My at-a-glance answer here is "likely so.")
So I guess my opinion is that MSU folks and M folks alike have reason to be cautious in their optimism. I wouldn't oversimplify the issues or underestimate MSU's offense (or, in the other direction, Denard's throwing ability, etc...). I think this game will be a good one.
But in the meantime, I'd like to see M take care of the Wildcats.
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:46 PM ^
I don't know where you are coming from with this on #2.
"On this question, yesterday suggests they're not that bad, though they very well may be for reasons you mention). "
They averaged 2.3 yards a carry and have a pair of very solid backs. That is absolutely abysmall play by their offensive line. Their O line is everybit the tire fire it has been described as.
October 2nd, 2011 at 2:59 PM ^
Your quoting of me is actually from the first line of questions I raised.
Also, MSU folks can only hope that the M coaches and players share your opinion and rationale on the matter.