Looking ahead to next year for MBB
I think it's worth taking a look at where we might be this time next year in basketball. It's pretty sexy.
GR3 is gone, barring some shock. I'm gonna assume Nik stays for the sake of this exercise - god, I hope so. Same for Mitch. He's falling into the 2nd round in most mocks - the combination of his age, medical issues, missing the whole season and generally small sample size of excellence isn't going to play well in a stacked draft like this. I'm pencilling him in for next year as a chance to rebuild his stock, but I guess he could just bolt no matter what.
So:
Point: Walton. He's clearly pretty talented, and year 2 is when Morris and Burke both made their massive leaps. Could be pretty damn good next year.
Guard: Stauskas. Already offensive superman, can only get better.
Guard: Caris. Shows flashes of weirdly impressive penetrate/dish ability. If he can get some more consistency, especially with his shot, hold on to your junk.
Guard/Forward: Irvin. Super talented scorer, should be a lot less freshman-y by next year. Would have started on almost any other Michigan team in the last decade as a freshman.
Center: McGary. Incredible when he's actually on the court.
Spike, Chatman and Donnal/Bielfeldt should all be usable as reserves.
With all due respect to Trey, that's probably the best combination of talent and experience (not starting a single freshman for the first time in a thousand years, three juniors) we've had in an extremely long time, at least on paper.
That's a conference and national title competitor, I say. MSU might lose 4 of their starters, OSU (FINALLY) loses Craft, etc. Nik and Mitch are the linchpins: if they return, we on.
Thoughts?
January 16th, 2014 at 1:16 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 2:01 AM ^
This isn't football. Good basketball players typically don't redshirt (with rare exception - i.e. Jordan Morgan who came in really raw). For a player with as much upside as Chatman, if he pans out, he's not going to stick around more than 3 years, let alone 5. We will need him to provide minutes in the 4-role.
January 16th, 2014 at 3:30 AM ^
Morgan was raw, sure, but he was also injured; that was the main reason he redshirted. If he was healthy, despite the fact that he was unheralded (to say the least) coming out, he likely would have played. The only viable centers we had at that time were Sims and Gibson, for God sake, and while those guys were excellent wolverines, I'm glad we're no longer in that position.
January 16th, 2014 at 4:33 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 8:59 AM ^
He may have redshirted anyway, but he had shoulder surgery, IIRC.
January 16th, 2014 at 9:36 AM ^
I'm also not convinced he is a three year player.
January 16th, 2014 at 10:15 AM ^
So if Chatman leaves, who backs up the 2, 3, and 4 positions (LeVert, Stauskas, Irvin)? Chatman will not be redshirting.
January 16th, 2014 at 1:20 AM ^
5th year senior. Great blocking ability. Leader on the court. Next year will be Horford's team. And Beilein will likely try running his two bigs lineup.
I would be shocked if Chatman redshirted. Though the 2/3 is going to be crowded and no one's gonna be a good fit for the 4.
January 16th, 2014 at 1:23 AM ^
I totally did forget Horford, I always think of him as a senior instead of a RS junior.
Perfect, he's the ideal McGary backup. Or a fine starter, should that be necessary.
January 16th, 2014 at 7:04 AM ^
that Mitch is coming back? Everything I've read and heard his rehab is geared toward getting him ready for the draft.
January 16th, 2014 at 7:38 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 8:31 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 1:29 AM ^
If Chatman lives up to hype he should play right away since basketball players don't stick around very long anyways.
January 16th, 2014 at 1:33 AM ^
If McGary and Stauskas come back maybe Robinson will come back too like Florida's stars did in 2007.
January 16th, 2014 at 1:40 AM ^
If anything, I feel like McGary's situation should be proof to everyone that they should get out when the gettin's good. Even though it sucks for UM bball. McGary's back injury would be a lot less devastating if he were on the books for a cool million.
January 16th, 2014 at 3:50 AM ^
Meh, it can go both ways.
I certainly think Trey staying for his sophomore year helped his draft stock go up.
These things, it's easy to say what the right thing was to do in retrospect, but you just never know what the right decisions are at the moment.
You can have Trey Burke type scenario...then again there's Matt Barkley type scenario (different sport, but you get the point)...
January 16th, 2014 at 6:10 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 7:05 AM ^
Good point, McGary was already projected to be a top15 in last year's draft if I remember correctly.
January 16th, 2014 at 8:27 AM ^
Unless you're projected at #1 that involves guesswork. If McGary had stayed healthy, that's very likely what he would be doing by coming back. It's possible that going when your stock is the highest is the wrong approach anyway. Going when your stock is high enough is lower risk and makes sense the way rookie contracts are structured now. Of course that's very subjective, as is the importance of trying to get some extra money over other things in your lfe.
January 16th, 2014 at 8:15 AM ^
she'd be my uncle
January 16th, 2014 at 9:22 AM ^
for the NCAA tournament? If he comes back and has a couple of monster games, then he will be gone.
January 16th, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 1:47 AM ^
I thought if McGary came back we would be over the scholarship limit. Has anything changed on that front?
January 16th, 2014 at 2:34 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 9:19 AM ^
If Robinson is the only one to leave, there's room for Horford and all four signees in the 2014 class. See the UMHoops scholarship breakdown.
January 16th, 2014 at 1:50 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 1:51 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 8:26 AM ^
I think its amazing that Belien has a program that looks like a consistently competitive tournament team. Can you believe just a few years ago we were ecstatic just making the tournament?
January 16th, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^
Agree with this. We still have a good team right now and this season isn't close to over.
That being said, I also agree with OP in that I thought about this the other day. We're gonna have a LOT of talent next year. And if McGary comes back? Damn. That team will absolutely compete for the B1G title. Plus factoring in the losses for MSU (pretty much their whole team) and OSU (Craft, who will have completed his 19th and final year of eligibility), they might be the frontrunner to win it next year.
January 16th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 6:25 AM ^
May be looking in the wrong place, but I'm not seeing Nik in the nbadraft.net mock at all. I'm not sure he's considered a pro prospect.
January 16th, 2014 at 8:26 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 8:53 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 6:29 AM ^
The team you're talking about won't have Trey, Timmy, GR3 and possibly Mitch, all first round players if healthy. To call them more talented is absurd, unless some of the young guys really take it to the next level.
January 16th, 2014 at 6:30 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 7:03 AM ^
You're delusional. GR3 is gone, he should go and I will wish him very well.
January 16th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^
The logic here is nonexistent...I've read your post at least 5 times and am still scratching my head. Please think before you type
January 17th, 2014 at 1:35 AM ^
I really don't think GR3 goes to the draft this year. I also didn't think THJ was going either after last season. Just think Glen could come back and be a Top 5 pickSentence #1: I really don't think GR3 goes to the draft this year. Explanation with Logic: The person typing this, does not feel that Glen Robinson III is going to enter the draft. I don't need to give an explanation on why I feel that way, it's my opinion and will continue to be until he stays in school or enters the draft. Sentence #2: I also didn't think THJ was going either after last season. Explanation with Logic: I also thought Tim Hardaway Jr. would stay another year and was clearly wrong. This makes my first sentence not mean very much. It was placed after the first sentence to clearly state that I could be wrong. Sentence #3: Just think Glen could come back and be a Top 5 pick. Explanation with Logic: My opinion is that this years draft is stacked to the point that Glen Robinson III stays one more year he would most likely be a Top 5 pick. Which may be enough for him to stay. Next time try reading before being so rude. I apologize for making you actually attempt to think. So next time do your self a favor and try to be polite if you don't understand. Communication is not insulting people because you don't understand.
January 16th, 2014 at 6:32 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 6:43 AM ^
McGary: too many question marks for him to go to the NBA as a high pick- I expect him to return. But he only played in 3-4 games, isn't he eligible for a RS?
GRIII: I can just barely see where the NBA potential comes from now- he's not as agressive as you'd think for a 1st rounder, but I've been impressed with his shooting- especially that stop & pop off the dribble from 20ft- he's deadly. I could see him getting into a groove this last half of the year, leaving and getting licked in the 7-15 range.
Staukas: don't froget his SO leap. He's the frickin' man now, man. just a high quality offensive player. Maybe the best offensive player in the B10 when you think about shooting, distributing, creating of the P&R and his size. I could see him staying and leaving after JR now.
January 16th, 2014 at 8:17 AM ^
I don't have the rulebook in front of me right now, but I believe in NCAA basketball that for a medical redshirt (the only possible type as he did see game time), the injury must occur in the first half of the team's season and the player cannot have played more than 20% of the team's schedule - six or so games, I think.
January 16th, 2014 at 9:00 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 9:02 AM ^
I believe it's 30% now. In any event it doesn't really matter - at most, he'll be here one more year, and I think that's a 50-50 shot at best.
January 16th, 2014 at 7:05 AM ^
I was skeptical of Stauskas' early "september heisman" numbers, but I'm coming around.
He probably doesn't have the athleticism, and certainly not the defensive presence (though that doesn't stop many players) to be a lotto pick, yet. However, I'm even starting to think that him leaving is a possibility.
Anyone who thinks GR3 is back is either delusional, selfish, or both.
January 16th, 2014 at 7:12 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 7:20 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 7:50 AM ^
January 16th, 2014 at 8:34 AM ^
Dont think its a given GR3 is gone. This year's class is loaded, and right now he's considered a late 1st.
A dominant year next year, along with the fact that next year will be pretty thin, could have him in the lottery.
I think Derrick Walton could take a Yogi Ferrell-like leap next year. I think their games/talent level are extremely similar.