from http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/last-chance-looks-stupid-predict-record-2010
Some people predicted the regular season and the bowl game, some predicted just the regular season, and some predicted both. To deal with that, I split predictions into ones that didn't account for bowl games and ones that did. "8-4 + bowl win" type predictions were applied to both categories and so did predictions of 5-7 and below. That makes the losing predictions overrepresentative, but what can you do...
Exclusively regular season: 187 total
| Record Predicted | # of predictions | % of whole |
| 12-0 | 8 | 4.2 |
| 11-1 | 2 | 1.1 |
| 10-2 | 9 | 4.8 |
| 9-3 | 18 | 9.6 |
| 8-4 | 51 | 27.3 |
| 7-5 | 66 | 35.3 |
| 6-6 | 21 | 11.2 |
| 5-7 | 7 | 3.7 |
| 4-8 | 4 | 2.1 |
| 3-9 | 0 | 0 |
|
2-10 |
1 | .5 |
|
1-11 |
0 | 0 |
| 0-12 | 0 | 0 |
Regular season + bowl (if 6+ wins): 168 total
| Record Predicted | # of predictions | % of whole |
| 13-0 | 8 | 4.8 |
| 12-1 | 3 | 1.8 |
| 11-2 | 9 | 5.4 |
| 10-3 | 20 | 11.9 |
| 9-4 | 43 | 25.6 |
| 8-5 | 57 | 33.9 |
| 7-6 | 11 | 6.5 |
| 6-7 | 5 | 3.0 |
| 5-7 | 7 | 4.2 |
| 4-8 | 4 | 2.4 |
| 3-9 | 0 | 0 |
| 2-10 | 1 | .6 |
| 1-11 | 0 | 0 |
| 0-12 | 0 | 0 |
Things that interested me in Table 1:
- 47% of posters predicted 8-4 or better.
- About 62% of posters predicted either 7-5 or 8-4
- 81% predicted at least 7-5
Thing from Table 2:
-
Very few people predicted bowl losses.
Notes: I counted 13-0 and 6-7 as also being predictions of 12-0 and 6-6, respectively. The only prediction I didn't count was gordie bell's 0-13 since it's mathematically impossible. I might have miscounted once or twice, but cut me some slack. I'm not Mathlete, people.
Peculiar part of looking at the data is that wins over Illinois and Purdue would put us on track to reach the 7-5 mark. While those games are certainly not locks, the interesting part to me is that it is still possible to reach the range of wins where people thought the team would perform. A bit of luck versus Wisconsin or a ridiculous amount of luck versus OSU and maybe 8-4 is possible. It just seems unlikely, however it is still possible.
The fun part of the pre-season projections is the speculation. Really we don't know what will happen or how it will go down. That would include how the team would get to the 7-8 win total. 5-0 was fun even with a few concerns. The last 3 suck with growing concerns. Watching Iowa walk over MSU yesterday, I am reminded that part of college football's fun factor is that stuff happens sometimes that is hard to anticipate. Did anyone see the Hawkeye romp happening? I didn't but I have to admit... I loved it. : D
Our team is writing their story as they go so to speak. They started out better than I thought they would, and emotionally I chose to ramp up my expectations some even if it wasn't rational for me to do so. The sparkling 5-0 caused me to look past the play of the defense and I did not account for the mistakes on special teams and penalties that happened in the last 3 games. I also didn't really see that the first five opponents would themselves have all sorts of issues.
The pain and disappointment in the last 3-4 weeks is part of the 'growth' process. (i.e. you have to grow to get bigger and better). While there are no garuantees, I'm in for the duration. The problem is I just don't know if they will win or not from here on out. The PSU loss is disappointing, but it's one game. While we can tell ouselves that we 'should have' won, fact is PSU played better and won. (guess they didn't read the memo they were supposed to suck). Looking in the mirror today, I realize there is a game next weekend and games beyond. I plan to 'HOLD FAST' and cheer the team on. I may not like the way the story is unfolding at the moment, but the story is not complete yet either. Go Blue!!
Go Blue!