Long-term OL Depth Concern

Submitted by UMaD on

The Campbell-Washington swap is bad news because it further depletes the depth on the OL.  Q. Washington is a RS freshman while Campbell is a sophomore, so unless Campbell redshirts, he's yet another player on the OL that will depart after the 2012 season. The coaching staff is setting themselves up for some serious concerns going beyond that. I admit this is premature, but I also think its reasonable.  Here's my logic:

2012 - the OL should be a team strength, as its is in 2010 and 2011.

T:  Lewan (JR), Schofield (JR)

G:  Omameh (SR), Barnum (SR) Mealer (SR) Campbell (SR)

C:  Khoury (SR),  Pace (SO)

Two things to notice:  very little depth at OT (though Barnum appears able to move around) and a lot of seniors, which means bad things for 2013.

2013:

T: Lewan (SR) Schofield (SR)

G: -

C: Pace (JR)

With Q Washington's presumed move to DL to address current depth problems, the long-term OL depth is further depleted.  Only 3 OL would remain from the last two recruiting classes.  You want upperclassmen on your OL, even moreso than at other positions. Lewan, Schofield and Pace would be the only upperclassmen on the OL, and this assumes no further attrition

Obviously, recruiting has to fill the gaps here, but to what extent can we count on the 2011 and 2012 class to do so?

The 2012 recruiting class won't help in 2012 and will be RS freshman in 2013.  Usually RS freshman don't play, but occasionally there are superstars like Lewan who can do this well.  These people are rare.  We can't count on this happening again.

The 2011 class (RS freshman in 2012) may not get much experience behind a veteran unit in 2012, but will be needed in 2013, many of them will be counted on to be starters as RS sophomores.

Conclusion:

OL is THE critical recruiting concern for the 2011 class.  These players, particularly the OGs, almost HAVE to pan out for Michigan to have a chance of being competitive in 2013.  For those who want to argue that this is all premature and alot of things can happen, what do you see fixing the situation?  More position switches from the DL?  Transfers?  JUCOs?  Another Lewan/Long type in the 2012 class?

There will be next to no returning experience on the 2013 OL. We absolutely NEED Miller, Fisher, Posada and whoever else  joins them (Bryant, Zettell, ?) to stick around and develop.

I know its popular to hope for hyped recruits to be saviors on the defensive but the long-term depth there looks great compared to OL. The coaching staff has put themselves into a corner.  I'd really like to see them recruit a minimum of 5 OL with maybe a guy like Zettel who can play either side added into the mix in case things don't work as hoped with some of the others.

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way too early to be doing this

WolvinLA2

October 25th, 2010 at 5:13 PM ^

OK, this is relatively valid.  But you're getting WAY ahead of yourself.  You're throwing around a bunch of "ifs" and worst-case scenarios, speculating that we might be in trouble 3 years from now.  What if Q moves to DT, thrives, and we have one of the best defenses in the country in 2012? 

I think RichRod knows he can make a killer offense, maybe without killer talent.  I think he's saying "if somehow we can build a killer defense, we'll be unstoppable" and he's right.  So maybe he's saying he's cool with playing a couple underclassmen on the Oline in 2013 in order to better our defense, and therefore a better team. 

And guess what - if Ash and Talbott end up being studs, or if we bring in a recruit who excels, Q will probably move back to offense.  And if they don't?  Then we need Q on defense anyway.

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Seth

October 25th, 2010 at 5:17 PM ^

You are absolutely right that this year is critical for O-line. However, it's also being handled pretty well, and overall I've been very very happy with Rodriguez's O-line recruiting.

Check back on 2008 and see where we were about this time...

Needs: Severe. Michigan has only five offensive line recruits across the last two classes. Fortunately two of those recruits, Justin Boren and Steve Schilling, appear to be can't-miss players. Beyond them is very little. Expect at least five recruits.

Projected Commits: 5.

Offensive Line

 
Commitments
Name State Stars Schools Y/N Notes
Dann O'Neill MI ****.5 Michigan Tackle. Rivals 100 (#64). Grand Haven Tribune article. AANews article. Grand Rapids Press.
Elliot Mealer OH ***.5 Michigan Tackle prospect. Video. Blade article.
Kurt Wermers IN ***.5 Michigan Scout interview. Guard prospect. Article. MGoBlog on Wermers. Scout article. Local newspaper article. Video.
Rocko Khoury MI *** Michigan Scout article. Commit article.
Patrick Omameh OH *** Michigan  
Ricky Barnum FL **** Michigan Florida verbal who visited.

This was before we knew that Boren would transfer, obviously. Still, the coaches were well on their way toward a big class at that time. Carr had Dann O'Neill, Wermers, Khoury and Mealer. RR snake oiled away Barnum and reeled in the who? guy Omameh.

Some of these guys didn't work out. O'Neill was a bust. Wermers couldn't get off World of Warcraft. But the class was deep enough that it was able to produce a starter and depth. RR didn't sit on this, either, but followed up with a class that had Q-Wash, Lewan, Schofield and Will Campbell. Two good years meant in '09 all we needed was to focus on an heir apparent for Molk, which we got in Christian Pace.

For 2011, Michigan already has commits from Jake Fisher, Tony Posada, and Jack Miller, with Chris Brant and Anthony Zettel on commit watch.

More to the point, the 2008 offensive line was going to be awful even if Carr transitioned to a clone of Lloyd Carr. This is mostly because we went to a zone blocking scheme in -- I think -- 2006. This is the year we got Schilling, Boren and Dorrestein. Schilling and Boren were among the top guard prospects in the country. Dorrestein, I think, was the first zone-blocking guy; we had to fight off Nebraska for him. Then in 2007 we whiffed on like a dozen tackles who had interest. David Molk was the big pickup. Huyge was the last-minute "oh crap we need OL."

Because we got so many guys in the 2008 class, I think we've all been expecting the 2011 class to be where the next generation signs up. Four commits should do the trick. Depth for 2013 can be assisted by more good pickups in the 2012 class.

So play it out...

    2010    
Lewan Schilling Molk Omameh DorresteinTable Properties
Huyge Barnum Khoury Washington Schofield
  Mealer Pace*    
    2011    
Lewan Barnum Molk Omameh Huyge
Zettel* Mealer Khoury Washington Schofield
Posada* Miller* Pace Campbell* Fisher*
    2012    
Lewan Barnum Pace Washington Omameh
Zettel Mealer Khoury Campbell Schofield
Posada ? Miller ? Fisher
    2013    
Lewan Campbell Pace Washington Schofield
Zettel ? Miller ? Fisher
Posada ?* ?* ?*  

Counting Zettel in this class and Will Campbell's permanent move, by 2013 we're looking at needing, say, five guys in the 2012 and 2013 classes, say seven due to normal attrition and guys not working out. The offensive line is fine.

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UMaD

October 25th, 2010 at 5:56 PM ^

completely agree that RR is doing a good job finding quality OL personnel.  I'd rather he got 3 or 4 each year, rather than the big class / small class zig-zag, but easier said than done.

Here's the key point IMO:

Then: "Michigan has only five offensive line recruits across the last two classes." 

Now:  3 OL recruits across the last two classes. 

Then: recruited 6 guys

Now:  Most are expecting/predicting 5, with maybe a swing recruit who can also play DL.

Then: Need described as "severe"

Now:  "Recruit defense, we need DBs and LBs to save our ship!"

OK, so the coaches aren't saying that but you don't get the sense from reading the Michigan blogs that its much of a concern.

I'd be happy with a class of 6 in 2011, but I don't get the sense that many people see the need as "severe".

 

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UMaD

October 25th, 2010 at 6:13 PM ^

Your 2013 depth chart is a sort of a best-case scenario because it includes Campbell and QWashington.  Campbell will hopefully redshirt, but what are the chances of a junior year red-shirt...rarely happens.  And Washington experimenting on DL might be a full time move.

Obviously, things would look way better if those guys are both on the OL in 2013.

I know Posada is considered an OT, but he's short and may actually end up at OG.  If Bryant is in the class that becomes more likely.

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UMaD

October 25th, 2010 at 5:59 PM ^

The DL looks relative good in comparison.  Black, Ash, Talbott, Paskorz, Wilkins, Washington.  6 guys in the last two classes (though some may be LB). 

6 (or lets say) 5, versus 3 in the OL

3 position vs 5 in the OL

an easier position to start early at

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brax

October 26th, 2010 at 11:44 AM ^

I certainly trust that the coaches know much better than I about whether the Campbell for Washington trade is a good one.  I also trust that they know which high school athletes to recruit for the type of OL that Michigan uses.  What I don't understand is the paucity of scholarships devoted to this position.  By my count, next year we will have 13 OL on scholarship for five positions while we'll have 14 receiver on scholarship for three positions.  Nobody (not even the coaches) can predict injuries or busts and it seems that we are playing russian roulette with our OL.  I'd love to see 3 or more OL recruited for this year and about 5 for next year.  As it stands, we are too thin.

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