Latest Bracketology update - Michigan on the rise!
Alright, alright....so this is my first time posting a new thread, so take it easy on me here. Just saw that Joe Lunardi made an update to his Bracketology selections this morning and Michigan is making some noise! Joe now has Michigan listed as the 6th team left out. I've read a few folks saying that finishing 5-4 in their final 9 games (and a win in the BTT) wil likely lock us for a bid. I think a lot will depend on just who those 5 wins come againist but I just can't see us getting left out with a conference record of 11-7. I also checked Bracket Matrix this morning and we are currently on two 'experts' brackets and on the fringe on many.
Beat State!
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
January 29th, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^
Thanks for more solid advice. I could give two shits about the total points, was just more annoyed that someone would go out of their way to neg someone who made a point of saying this was their post and I thought I followed most of the 'How to post informative crap' rules but like someone said above, guess you can't make everyone happy.
January 29th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^
The thing that really, really, really sucks is that those two losses to NJIT and EMU are probably what's going to keep us out of the tourney.
15-6 (6-3) with losses at Arizona, at Ohio State, vs Wisconsin, neutral to Villanova, at Purdue, and home vs SMU would probably have us just outside the Top 25 and a solid 9/10 seed
5-4 or even 4-5 with a win in the Big 10 Tourney would've put us as 10/11 seed.
I can't see the committee taking an 18-12 team with home losses to the two aforementioned cupcakes unless they make a run to the BTT final. Even then, it might be a stretch.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:25 PM ^
Agree with you however one thing I will say is that the Eastern and NJIT losses are looking better (if that's possible) and better everyday. Eastern's RPI is close to being under 150 and as long as we can keep NJIT's RPI under 200, we should be alright. Both teams are almost assured winning records, albeit against a weak schedule. I think in the end, those losses are still going to be bad but not quite as bas as we thought at the time.
In regards to wins, those Oregon and Syracuse wins, if I had to guess, are going to start looking really good and soon. Both teams have been playing good ball and should be in the top 50 in the RPI by the end of the season. At this point, we have 6 more opportunities at gaining some more top 50 RPI wins. I stil say, with 11 conference wins and a win in the BTT, I think we're in. Only time will tell.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:54 PM ^
so it doesn't count, and we'd be 18-13 if we finish 5-4 and then win one BTT game.
While I can't think of an 11-7 B1G team that didn't make it, I also can't think of an 11-7 B1G team that lost TWO similar to NJIT & EMU (and both at home).
The committee says it doesn't care about conference, so if we reclassify the NJIT & EMU losses as B1G losses, we'd be 11-9 B1G. Our OOC resume would include losses to every tournament team with our best win coming over present fellow "Next Four Out"-member Syracuse.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 3:39 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^
I see where you're coming from, but I think the committee will sometimes cut you some slack if you've demonstrated that you're a different team than when those losses happened, which I think we have. Look at us last year, that Charlotte loss was on par with the EMU loss this year and we still ended up with a 2 seed.
It would be one thing if we were all over the board the whole season and kept mixing great wins in with terrible losses. In that case, they'd hammer you for the depths of your losses. But we're starting to play consistently well now. If we got to 11-7/12-8, we'd be coming in on a pretty good run and they're usually kind to hot teams. In 2006, Syracuse went from likely out all the way to a 5 seed just by winning the Big East Tournament, a roughly 30 spot difference. I know that's an auto-bid, but it just shows how much movement is available late in the year.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:54 PM ^
You can look at it a couple ways. At this point, being in the top half of the Big 10 (in 4th place, no less), should guarantee you tournament consideration. The fact that it is outside consideration really says something about the dismal non-conference performance. The bright side is that the rest of the Big 10 ain't no great shakes either, and going .500 might just guarantee them a top 5 spot in the Big 10, and probably give UM a better case than any team below them. No Big 10 team had a stellar non-conference year. Looking across the college landsape, many conferences are in similar situations, where the middle teams are racking up losses. There could be a dozen or so teams fighting for those final 4 berths.