Latest Bracketology update - Michigan on the rise!

Submitted by True Blue 9 on

Alright, alright....so this is my first time posting a new thread, so take it easy on me here. Just saw that Joe Lunardi made an update to his Bracketology selections this morning and Michigan is making some noise! Joe now has Michigan listed as the 6th team left out. I've read a few folks saying that finishing 5-4 in their final 9 games (and a win in the BTT) wil likely lock us for a bid. I think a lot will depend on just who those 5 wins come againist but I just can't see us getting left out with a conference record of 11-7. I also checked Bracket Matrix this morning and we are currently on two 'experts' brackets and on the fringe on many. 

Beat State!

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

http://bracketmatrix.com/

 

Danwillhor

January 29th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^

She has had two insane run-ins with the law lately and I don't want to be the guy to say this (so I inevitably will be lol) but I genuinely stayed away from that celebrity hacking scandal last year. Yet, it was impossible to not see some pics because of buddies, x rated links on torrent sites & an honest but awkward slight curiosity when certain names were offered up by coworkers. Anyway, I'm shown a few of Upton that I'll never unsee (I'll just say mirror + upton + verlander = why) lol. As he listed the names I said ok to a few of Jennifer Lawrence & felt creepy because she looked like she was crying (?!?) in the two I saw. I felt creepy! Not kidding. So, I was done as others gawked around a coworker's phone in the break room. I then hear "oh, you have to see this one! You know that soccer chick?" in an odd tone. I'm hoping it's Alex Morgan as she is, IMO, gorgeous! I go back and it's Hope Solo.......with what I can only say is an Arabic Cookie Monster living in her "area". It was nightmare inducing! We all gasped & then laughed uncontrollably for a solid minute. It was horrible, bombed out & depleted. I felt like trash & (not kidding) never looked at another private hacked pic. She's crazy! Has the look, is kind of manly, beats up family, does crazy drugs & the pic I saw was her really getting raunchy with this crazed look on her face. Yet, I'll admit she was once.....decent looking. For about a couple months when she was famous but still feminine. She had Jennifer Affleck (forgot her last name lol) syndrome - st the right angle is attractive, at the wrong angle looks manly. I think it was likely before all the PEDs & other drugs.

Danwillhor

January 29th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^

It was in the news so.....oh, you mean the other thing! Haha. I don't care. I'm beyond bored & not working at all right now. Do you know how many people have seen all of those pics? How many here likely have at least all of Uptons hacked pics? I'm proud to say I've only seen like 5 total from the dozens of celebs & felt creepy for looking. Solo's was the last and verifies she's crazy. One man's TMI is another's "cool story bro" is another's "not cool, man", etc. Above may have been all of those (haha). I admit. Yet, I think I'm the only guy I know that couldn't look at them out of sheer conscience. After Solo I didn't want to out of almost puking lol. tmi!

BJNavarre

January 29th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^

Crashing the Dance has them as the 7th team left out. Keep in mind that assumes a best case scenario with the auto qualifiers, so they're probably more like 9th or 10th out.

Lots of bubble-in teams sitting on only 1 top 50 RPI win. Michigan still has chance to make a move. I also notice that both EMU and NJIT are both in the top 200 RPI, so neither are the complete resume killers that we once thought.

Mr. Yost

January 29th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^

Very nice, but it's the last thing I'm thinking about right now. (And I'm not getting on your for looking ahead...you're a fan, that drives me nuts when people act like you can't look ahead).

I'm just trying to enjoy this team one game at a time with no expectations to the post season.

For the remainder of this season I just want to see ONE thing.

Let's play our best with what we have and see where the chips fall. If that means we go .500 the rest of the way...so be it. If we make the tournament...awesome.

For example, for those of you that remember the @IU game in 2012, we were #1, they were highly ranked, it was an INSANE atmosphere.

If you go back and rewatch that game, we played our best given the circumstances. You weren't taking a bunch of freshman in key roles and going into that arena on that night and winning. Not without experience, toughness and things freshman learn over the course of the year.

We played extremely well if you factor in the youth, the opponent, the atmohphere, the moment, the hype, Dickie V, etc. 

I knew after that game that we could hang with anyone in the country because we'd never see another game like that ever again. Not until a Final Four at least and even this the moment is bigger, but the crowd is completely different.

So if this team, win or lose can just play its best...that's all I care about. I have no expectations for them to make the tournament. Just play your heart out and everyone play to his potential.

True Blue 9

January 29th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^

That's a very fair point about not looking ahead. I guess I was just posting this to show how much we've came back from the dead this year. Amazing that, even after that awful losing streak in the non-conference season, the fact that we are on the fringe of the NCAA tourney is pretty amazing! But point taken, this team has a lot to be proud of and we, as fans, should just take it as it comes. 

InHopsWeTrust

January 29th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^

You raise a good point, Mr. Yost.  This year's @OSU was similar.  OSU was on a huge high from the Football NC and they kicked our butts.

But Coach B pulled our starters and got the then-scrubs some playing time in that atmosphere.  As you suggested, that may pay dividends down the road. Hopefully some earnings will appear in East Lansing on Sunday.

 

 

Perkis-Size Me

January 29th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^

I think a lot too will depend on the big ten tournament and how we fare there. We don't have a ton of opportunities left to make statements against marquee opponents. Beating Wisconsin would've been huge, but we just couldn't pull it out. Just have to get a strong finish. Beating MSU this weekend would be a good start.

But if we somehow find a way to sneak into the tournament, Beilein should be coach of the year or something. Not to mention we'll be playing with house money from there on out.



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LSAClassOf2000

January 29th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^

TeamRankings does advance bracketology odds using their own algorithm, and the results of their latest simulation for Michigan are interesting. 

Right now, they have us at 8.7% for making the tournament at all actually, and note that the estimate here of an 18-win team getting in today is 5.8%, but if we were to pull out 19 wins (before we talk resume), it jumps to 37.1%

By their model, if we do make it, the most likely seed would be 12th at this point (2.2% estimated probability). 

TrueBlue2003

January 29th, 2015 at 5:46 PM ^

Thanks for sharing.  I wasn't aware of TeamRankings.  Cool site. Their win probabilities for us are significantly lower than Kenpom so those appear to be pessimistic projections.  For instance they have MSU win prob at 15% and Iowa at 48%, whereas kenpom has us at 18% and 55% for those two games, respectively.  It seems like they might be using betting markets which might be taking into account a big hit for the loss of Caris that kenpom ratings aren't able to factor in.  Kenpom would have us at more like 20-25% of getting in.

Three games ago, I would have agreed that kenpom was overly optimistic, but coming off what's probably been our best three game stretch of the season without Caris, it looks like the development of the young guys might have offset that loss. Small sample size, but let's hope.

TrueBlue2003

January 29th, 2015 at 5:53 PM ^

Now that I look beyond the next two games, there's some drastic differences between TeamRankings and kenpom.  Team Rankings only gives us a 22% chance of beating OSU at home, which I think is way too low, given how well this team has played at home. Kenpom has us winning that game 41% of the time.  Also TeamRankings only gives us a 19% chance @ILL and kenpom has mich winning that 32% of the time.

Baughlieve

January 29th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^

5-4 

Wins: Iowa, MSU, Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers

Losses: MSU, Indiana, OSU, Maryland

Should be a lock if we can upset Maryland, maybe with a win over OSU.

Danwillhor

January 29th, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^

that if we get to the tourney this year we should have the coach of the year. NIT & he did a Heck of a job, IMO! We just lost so much & the system isn't set up for 1&done kids to help (yet, hopefully we get one a year or so soon). Given the departures & injuries an NIT bid is worth an ovation. I'll stand if we get in the actual tourney.

True Blue 9

January 29th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^

Seriously, somebody down voted my first post.....*smh* sometimes this community is something else. The post was informative, relevant information. Anyways, hope (the majority) of you guys found this informative. 

mGrowOld

January 29th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^

You beat me to it (unfortunately) and now somebody's going to downvote your remark questioning the downvote.  FWIW I thought the exact same thing - who the hell downvotes this post given it was solid content from a first time poster and I was going to post exactly that.

But the first rule of MGoPoints is that you dont discuss MGoPoints and by bringing up the subject yourself - trust me - somebody's going to neg you here.  Keep posting but in the future when some jackwagon downvotes you let others come to your defense - trust me, we will.

1464

January 29th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^

My advice is to not really worry about MGoPoints at all.  If you let popular opinion get in the way of stating your opinion, you're not adding anything to the site.  I've been negged by damn near everyone on here.  I've had threads deleted, etc.  It just happens.  The moment you start worrying about points is the moment you start to only add flavor-of-the-week.gif crap on here.

Harbaugh? Harbaugh Harbaugh Harbaugh.

Shit like that ^^^ gets stale really quickly.