I don't care if we're a 3 or 4. I just want to make sure we're in Auburn Hills.
Latest bracketology has Michigan a 4 seed in Salt Lake City
Wont be in Auburn Hills as a 4.
Are you sure? I thought #4 seeds could also get seeded there under the pod system. If not, yikes . . . well, at least Louisville is making a game of it.
Top 4 seeds CAN get location preference, but preference goes in order of seed. The way it is shaping it out with who the teams are on the 3/4 lines and where they are located and where the sites are located for rounds one and two, a few four seeds from the east/midwest will probably get sent out west.
Than play a 6 on a neutral court and avoid getting the 1 seed a round earlier?
I would make that trade, personally. This team needs a confidence boost and a home crowd will help. On a neutral site, who knows how we'll perform?
I want to make the Sweet 16. Anything beyond that is gravy.
As of right now, 2 teams have pretty much locked in 3 seeds in New Mexico and Florida, IMO. I think MSU will most likely get one and if Cuse wins tonight, they will likely get one. Michigan would need Louisville to win and bump Cuse back down to 4.
Louisville thankfully performed its civic duty. Amazing turnaround - they were down 16 early in the second half but went on to win by 17.
Hopefully, the committee will bump Syracuse back to a 4 for losing to a good team. Seems like predictors have no problem bumping Michigan down when they lose to good teams.
They'd better go down. They have nine losses and played in a (somewhat) worse conference.
So Michigan could play another MAC team in the first game? Please God no.
Not sure it would matter who they play right now...just want them in Auburn Hills.
Just because we lost to one, unusually-good, MAC team last year doesn't mean that they're all like that.
And Lunardi isn't a scientist...
Why does Michigan fall to a four seed after losing to Wisky, but Indiana remains a one seed after losing to - wait for it... Wisky. I understand that Michigan has looked mediocre at best in some of their last 12 or so games, but their schedule has been brutal. The Big 10 is by far the best conference, yet Lunardi has New Mexico (who beat UCONN and no one else goodish) ahead of UofM. I think the selection committee will consider their overall body of work to be enough for a three seed at least.
New Mexico is closer to a 1 than a 4
I don't understand the New Mexico love. What makes their resume so great? One win over UConn?
EDIT: OK, I see below that the MWC is somehow the highest-RPI conference. But that's absurd.
I have no idea where teams will be seeded later today, but based on RPI rankings and strength of schedule rankings before games of March 16, but results in games played on March 16:
New Mexico, with the nation’s second ranked RPI, was regular season and conference tournament champ of the conference with the nation’s best RPI (Mountain West). Their strength of schedule is ranked second in the nation. They have a 6-3 record against teams with RPIs in the top 35 and six wins against teams with an RPI above 150. They’re 29-5 and 16-3 in the Mountain West. They’re 9-1 in their last ten games. Their worst loss was to a team with the 78th ranked RPI on the road.
Michigan (RPI: 17; 25-7; 13-7 in the conference with the nation’s second ranked RPI) tied Wisconsin for the fourth best Big Ten regular season record, but was seeded fifth in the conference tournament and has the nation’s 39th ranked strength of schedule. They have a 5-6 record against teams with RPIs in the top 35, ten wins against teams with an RPI above 150 and are 5-5 in their last ten games. Their worst and only bad loss was to the team with the 185th ranked RPI on the road.
Wisconsin (RPI: 34; 23-10; 14-6 in conference, including 2-0 against Michigan) has the nation’s 19th ranked strength of schedule, a 5-7 record against teams with RPIs ranked in the top 35, ten wins against teams with an RPI above 150 and is 7-3 in its last ten games. Their worst and only bad loss was at home to the team with the 130th ranked RPI. They're playing for the Big Ten Tournament Championship.
Indiana (RPI: 5; 27-6; 15-5 in conference) was the regular season conference champ and has the nation’s tenth ranked strength of schedule, an 8-5 record against teams with RPIs ranked in the top 35, ten wins against teams with an RPI above 150 and is 7-3 in its last ten games. Their worst loss was to the team with the 40th ranked RPI on the road.
Some of that is the natural tendency of the RPI to overrate teams in the best mid-major conferences. From past brackets I think the committee knows that--they talk about RPI and non-conference SOS in public because they're trying to influence scheduling decisions, but behind closed doors they're using it more for organizational purposes (wins against top 50 / top 100 etc.) than to rank the teams of interest themselves. They haven't been handing out one-seeds to MWC and MVC teams just based on RPI, in the past.
Somebody on the committee yesterday talked in an interview about KenPom and Sagarin--I think they use those tools more than they'll admit.
- New Mexico is 22 in Sagarin predictor, 11 in Massey power, 16 at KenPom.
- Michigan is 11 in Sagarin predictor, 13 in Massey power, 11 at KenPom.
- Wisconsin is 8 in Sagarin predictor, 14 in Massey power, 9 at KenPom.
- Indiana is 3 in Sagarin predictor, 4 in Massey power, 3 at KenPom.
If I had to guess I'd say Indiana's a one, Wisconsin and New Mexico are 3's and Michigan's a 4. They'll give the benefit of the doubt to the non-power-conference team, when they have a choice, and to a team that closed strong.
#4 in the West against Bucknell. I'll be happy when 7PM is here and everything is known.