Uhhhhh....I'm not going to an event in a place that frowns on...feel good juice. Yeah, that should be SFW...
spoiler alert: i linked this
Uhhhhh....I'm not going to an event in a place that frowns on...feel good juice. Yeah, that should be SFW...
I would feel worse if it was Jerry Palm. Lunardi is awful at this, IIRC.
According to JP, Michigan is a 2 seed in Auburn Hills. As much as I would love a 2 seed, I don't see it.
He expects us to finish at a 3, even though we're still a 2 on his bracket.
Jerry Palm's bracket also has the rest of the top of that bracket being Gonzaga and New Mexico. Who do I have to root for to get the BEST BRACKET EVER?
lmao at the thread of people from a few days ago talking about how they already bought tickets to Auburn Hills to watch Michigan play
the way to the bank. Those of us who did buy tickets can sell them to sparty if msu can hold on to a 2 or 3 seed. I will double my money. If we do get to the Palace then its a win-win.
What is the downside?
who think that Lunardi has any influence on the actual seeding.
Yeah, let's totally make fun of other Michigan fans who want to support their team in person! What a laugh riot.
tracked his picks compared to the actual bracket the past two years. The problem is ESPN does not keep his pre-tournament bracket on the website. It can sometimes be found by other outlets picking up the story.
Lunardi is less than 50% accurate. He generates hype until the NCAA announcement then he goes quiet. Marketing 101.
There are people who rank these things and there are a lot of people who do significatly better year after year. The fact people pay attention to him is an example of the marketing genius of the WWL
I should just sell my INDY tickets right now......I'm sure some IU fan will pay good money...
Slight chance Louisville jumps IU (both would get 1's) for Indy if they can win the Big East title tonight.
Think Ohio would get a #1 over indiana if they win the BTT??? Split the season series....As you can see I have a lot of wishful thinking going on.
Lunardi is good about getting the correct teams IN the tournament. Not so good about actual seeding or placements. Im not worried in the slightest.
that 4 seed slot Kansas state is in looks amazing, if we somehow got that draw i think we would make the final 4.
Just a short few years ago we would be going ape shit to be a 4 seed...just sayin.
I logged in to upvote this. Thank you for some perspective.
We didn't have anywhere near the combination of skill and athleticism that we have now.
Please respond to the next person who says "fire Belein" (no really, someone actually said that)
We Had A Shot At A One Seed. Then The Team Started Playing Shitty Basketball, Got Their Teeth Kicked In By A Big Rival, Lost To Almost Every Team With A Pulse, Including a Lousy PSU Team, And Just Crumbled In The Big Ten Qfs. It's Not A Bad Season, But This Team Has Greatly Underperformed Expectations.
How long did it take you to capitalize the first letter of every word? Is this some subdued form of Internet yelling?
But just a few WEEKS ago we were the #1 overall seed so your mood right now is driven by if you're more connected with our recent or more distant past.
for those of us who never bought into the #1 ranking to begin with. UM fans crazily oscillate between black-hole negativity and lunatic optimism depending on who's gone 4 for 7 from the three on a particular evening. John Beilein may not be the combined incarnation of Adolph Rupp, John Wooden, and Dean Smith, but neither is he Tommy Amaker or Brian Ellerbe.
I don't think there's anyway there not at least a 3 seed. Hell, I could still see them getting the last 2 seed spot. They do need to take the next 4 days to get their shit together.
As a Michigan fan I want them to make it in west bracket
I live in the Bay Area and would love to travel to their tourney if they landed in the west bracket
I don't get how losing to two top 25 teams gets us to a 4 seed when we were a two seed before that.
While I do not feel like Michigan is playing like a worthy 2-3 seed, I do wonder why it seems like Michigan is falling in the brackets for losses to IU and Wisconsin when other teams don't seem to be affected by losses. Indiana has lost 3 games since moving in to #1 seed projections and their projection as a #1 has never changed. If Morgan's tip goes in against them, we have damn similar resume's and a better overall record yet we are a #4 projection and they are a #1. The other one that will piss me off is Syracuse (who Lunardi bumped Michigan out of Auburn Hills for). I am not saying that Michigan is better than Syracuse but watch them lose to Louisville tonight and Lunardi will argue that the loss does no damage and they will stay on the 3 line. Not sure how their loss doesn't cost them when our loss to Indiana costs us. It's b.s. and I hope that Palm or some of the other (usually more accurate braketologists) are right about the #3 seed. I want to see Michigan play with a home court advantage and I have tickets so...let's hope! Go Blue!!!
The ones he label last 4 in and the last 4 out. All others should just be patient.
Jerry Palm's was looking rather good for us, but in his latest - here - we are the #2 in Auburn Hills playing Iona, but then we would get the winner of VCU-California. If we got through that, we would then face the survivor of the pod containing Notre Dame-Wichita State and New Mexico-Arizona.
Bracketography, which is TeamRankings system, also has us staying local, but as #3 and opening against New Mexico State.
Sweet Sixteen or bust.
Are all that matter. We don't have to worry about big ten teams. We want to stay away from Kansas, a Pitt rematch, Louisville, and saint Louis(Wisconsin lite)
3 seed in Auburn Hills. JB knows some folks. (I think we would be anyway). That is our seed and it is not changing.
Before you worry about Arizona, let's beat Akron. And Duke? Goodbye Sweet Sixteen. Sorry, I see no reason for optimism in this situation.
It would be vs. Duke IN the sweet 16
Arizona in the third round would be awesome. They are so bad.
Yes, but they have been in a virtual free fall for the second half of the season and are lacking chemistry. I don't see Arizona getting to the sweet 16 no matter what.
according to bracketmatrix.com.
Syracuse and Kansas State could screw that up.
in the end the only thing that matters is to beat the team your playing against, everything else will play itself out
Is not a #1 seed so these projections are jacked.
Akron won't even make the tourney. They are going to get their faces pounded in by Ohio in the MAC finals tonight. A rematch with Ohio would be all bad since they didn't lose anyone from their Sweet 16 team of last year.
Lunardi may be clueless about placement, but still, I am worried. I don't care if we're a 3 or 4, but we've got to be in Auburn Hills. A lot of things have gone wrong in the last 24 hours. We need some things to break our way.
As the other 4 B1G semis will get a 1 and possibly three 2 seeds, although probably one 3 in that group.
Suspect the politics will bump us to 4 seed, especially with our 5-6 record over the last 11 games.
UW possibly bumped us from a low 2 to top 4.
We're actually 6-5 in our last 11 games. 6-6 in the last 12, though.
They Big10 will not get 3 2 seeds. Wiscy maxes out at a 3. 10 loss teams don't get 2 seeds. That just doesn't happen. Also people tend to overrate conference tournament results. The committee factors them in like regular games, no more no less.
Anyone explain to me why Iowa isn't even getting mentioned as a tourney team? They went 9-9 in the toughest conference in the country. Rarely, if ever, do Big Ten teams that go .500 in conference get left out.
Because they played about the easiest possible conference schedule, playing a bunch of contenders only once apiece. They have little in the way of signature wins.
Resume can't be too far off from Minnesota's can it?
Minnesota played a much tougher overall schedule and has a lot more impressive wins. They've played poorly for several weeks now, but their schedule should still get them in.
And the committee relies on the rpi too much which uses 50% on strength of schedule vs.25% on win loss.
Stop worrying about the seed or the location. Those two things SHOULD NOT have an effect on the team's performance. Beilein needs to teach these kids how to play in a hostile environment. Tune it all out, play like you've been coached, and just win, baby, win.
How has hostile environments treated us so far this season? Oh right. I agree that whether we get a 3 or 4 seed shouldn't matter, but where we play will be absolutely huge.
But why does it have to be that way? The fans aren't playing the game, they're in the stands. Why can't we be a team like Ohio State, than can go into loud environments and win convincingly?
It may have something to do with the fact that we have five freshmen in the rotation.
Then players like Hardaway, Burke, Morgan, Horford, and Vogrich really dropped the ball in teaching their teammates.
I'm not sure it's something that can be taught. It's hard to explain to someone what it's like to play in a crazy environment where 13,000 cheer against you. It's hard for almost any team to play on the road and especially so for young teams. Still, we went 4-5 in true road games, with one of the losses being the Wisconsin miracle.
It's not just Michigan. Every team benefits from playing closer to home and in front of more of their fans. Less distance to travel, no time changes to mess up routines, and it's far easier to communicate on the court in front of your own fans. Also, there is probably some psychological aspects as well. The effects of these factors are most likely magnified by playing so many freshman in Michigan's case, but I'm sure every team in the country would rather play in a more familiar setting.
If Georgetown get a better seed than Michigan I will be seriously pissed. I think it's going to be a 3, the 2 seed will go to whoever wins between MSU and OSU.
Serious question: if it's been proven that we can't defend, why don't we just go all in on offense? If we crash the offensive boards and stop worrying as much about getting back, maybe we can just our score teams. Obviously there are a couple problems with this, but why not try it? I know no one on here wants to win games 103-97, but does it matter how we win anymore? Granted, it probably would've been a better idea to try this for a half against Penn St, rather than in a serious tournament for the first time. Hell, this suggestion is probably more suited towards a game of NBA 2k13 than in real life, but it was just a thought I was having. The whole year I've heard about how efficient the offense is, well why don't we prove it? This is obviously just a crazy idea, but I thought it was worth a share. GO BLUE!
It would be a decent idea if only our offense was actually that great. The offense is not exactly elite, especially when we face any average or better defense
I feel like the reason our offense isn't thought of as "elite" is because after we shoot one shot, everyone is sprinting back on defense. If we crash the boards relentlessly, we can get two or three 3 point shots in a possession. And I know we have the shooters to make those shots.
If we did that, we'd also probably give up a lot more transition points than we currently do (we're one of the best in the country at limiting transition baskets). There's a tradeoff to every coaching decision.
That's pretty much the biggest flaw of this idea.
Is that you????
Kidding. I say try it. why not?
Get a high seed and make the Final Four. Next year. Hockey is on tonight. This is not the time of year to regress and expect great things. Reality.
Game on tv tonight?
The third round? The third round? Don't get ahead of yourself
That's the 2nd game genius
Lets try to make out of the firs round this year. Lets just go round by round.
They'll be a 4 but I'd still be surprised not to be in auburn hills. Too many locals already have tickets. No good reason to take that away.
Michigan should root for Louisville and Kansas today. If one or both lose, Michigan should be in Auburn Hills. If both win, it could be dicey.
They will need both Kansas St. and Syracuse to lose and it wouldn't hurt if New Mexico lost to UNLV. 3 or 4 seed by itself isn't such a big deal but home games in Auburn Hills are.
Could be worse. SLC's a great place to visit in the wintertime.
(Not that I have any great faith in Lunardi's prognosticating.)
Bad news: the weather has turned into spring here. Skiing is getting rough, but we might get a storm in time for the games.
I guess every silver lining has a dark cloud.
I believe that we will be a 3 seed in Auburn Hills, even though we should be a 4 seed IMHO.
Not sure but I am sure all the sparty fans and other 6 teams fan base will be rooting against us.I do hope we go to AH because of all the UM fans who want to go.
They're not all going to watch our game. We'll have a homecourt advantage.
AFAIK no alcohol at NCAA events is still in effect. Do you think sparty would stay and root against us or head over to the Post for a quick one?
We will be just fine.
so much for buying those tickets for the palace
We're ranked 9, sandwiched between OSU and MSU. They updated it after the afternoon games.
How does Indiana still get a one seed after losing today? If conference tournament games are only going to affect seeding for some teams then what is the point?
They're still the outright champion of the country's best conference.
Oh Indy will definitely be a 1
I can't really argue that Michigan is playing like a deserving 2-3 seed but I also don't understand how Michigan's seeding seems to take a hit after every loss even if the loss is to a good team. Michigan was considered by most "experts" a probably 2-seed before losing by a point to Indiana. The loss bumped the prediction to a 3-seed. The loss to Wisconsin bumps the prediction to a 4-seed. Indiana loses to Ohio St. at home (slightly worse loss than losing to Indiana at home) and remains a 1-seed. Indiana loses to the same Wisconsin team a day later and remains a likely 1-seed. I do not understand why one team gets hammered and the other it doesn't seem to have any effect. It's not like those 2 losses were Indiana's only losses. They stand at 27-6. It's not much different than 26-7. I am not trying to say Michigan deserves a higher seed than Indiana but if you look at the whole schedule and all the wins and losses why do relatively similar losses cost one team and not the other?
Count on it
Hope you're right but I'm not counting on it. If wisky wins Sunday it won't hurt
I think his point was, that we are bad enough defensively that we give up a lot of points in the half court game. So what's the difference if we give up transition baskets or half court baskets? At least if we are giving up transition baskets by crashing the offensive boards, we are increasing our chances of offensive baskets.
Not to say I necessarily agree with this approach, but I think he's willing to accede that this will give up transition baskets, and that it is an acceptable tradeoff.
This was supposed to be a response to a post above. Trust me, it makes more sense in context.
I understand his point completely. But I disagree. We're not great at halfcourt defense, but we're not so bad that scoring in the halfcourt against us is as easy as scoring in transition. I also don't think we'd grab that many offensive rebounds even if we tried to crash like crazy. We just don't have that many big, physical guys that can win the battles for inside position.
If we tried to mimic MSU and send 3-4 guys to the boards every possession, we'd get some extra points, but we'd definitely get burned the other way a lot, too. Guys like Stauskas, THJ, LeVert, Burke et al. just aren't going to get us a ton of offensive boards. It's not their game.
At this point in the season, we are what we are. There is no magic coaching adjustment that's going to make a huge difference. We just have to hope a combination of extra effort, mistake-free basketball and good shooting can work.
Why does everyone think they will be so far ahead of us in the seeding ( a 2 for them and a 4 for us). They finished by losing 4 of their last 5 games vs ranked teams, including UM. In the BTT they went 1-1. I think the resumes are fairly similar.
that we beat Indiana but because of the no call on the flagrant, we lose. Sparty beats Iowa because of a bad call too. The shot where Iowa CLEARLY had all ball but was called a foul. If that does not get called, Iowa gets the ball and wins.
So yes, they are not better than us.
After breaking my glasses with the maize-and-blue-colored lenses, I saw that:
Michigan’s RPI has slipped to 17. They are 6-6 in their last 12 games with two of those wins and one of those losses coming against Penn State RPI: 185); although two of the other Michigan wins were against teams that could be seeded no worse than two in their respective regions (Michigan State and Ohio State), those wins were at home by a total of three points.
Then there’s the "eye test" taken with clear lenses. Michigan has become a two player team on offense, a porous team on defense and a weak rebounding team. If Burke or Hardaway goes cold, Michigan’s offense often has no scoring threat. As great a job as John Beilein has done in recruiting talented players, he appears to have trouble making in-game adjustments, and he has no assistant who apparently can coach defensive skills and strategy.
Michigan just as easily could be a five seed as a three seed. And wherever Michigan is seeded or wherever Michigan plays its first game, as sad as it will seem, it may become a popular "filling-out-the-bracket" pick for Michigan to lose that game.
Nevertheless, regardless of the seed and region placement (and I’d be rooting for both Michigan and Michigan State to wind up on the same line in different regions, and playing on alternate nights in Auburn Hills), I’m hoping that by Michigan’s next game, the starting frontcourt will be McGary, Morgan and Robinson, with Horford rotating in for McGary and Morgan, and Bielfeldt getting a few minutes to help the others avoid serious foul trouble; that Stauskas and Robinson can alternate at the small forward and each be rejuvenated by that arrangement; that LeVert and Albrecht (and maybe even Vogrich, the only senior who possibly could see playing time) can make some positive contributions; and that Michigan can find some Silver Linings Playbook juju that will take them further than most of the "experts" predict. . . . And if they're looking for some inspiration, how about getting Austin Hatch to give the pre-game speech?
FYI: They cannot play on alternate nights. There's a Thursday day session of two games (say the 3v14 and 6v11 of Region A) and a Thursday night session of two games (say 4v13 and 5v12 of Region B). Then on Saturday the winners of a session play each other back to back, which is why Saturday's ticket, if M and MSU are in Auburn Hills, will be quite the ticket to hold.
The more appropriate wish would've been for U-M and MSU playing in alternate sessions on the same day. So, MSU can get a three seed and U-M can get a four or a five seed in order to play at alternate times. (With Syracuse's epic meltdown against Louisville tonight, that four seed might be looking a little safer for the Wolverines.)
Well, sounds about right. Struggled a bit down the stretch. Might be good as a rallying call for some of the guys, giving them an underdog mentality. But honestly, I look at the other seeds and I don't see UM getting much better of a positioning.
Louisville is playing like crap, down 13 to Syracuse. That's not good. We really want them to rally and win.
If we play at a 4, this is not a terrible thing. This team seams to play to their opponent. I wouldn't take a 3/4 seed to differently ( I know ill take flack for that comment ) We have a team that if they "play like a team" they have all the potential in the world. I take it with a grain of salt, enjoy this team, they can surprise any team this year... Go Blue all!
I don't care if we're a 3 or 4. I just want to make sure we're in Auburn Hills.
Wont be in Auburn Hills as a 4.
Are you sure? I thought #4 seeds could also get seeded there under the pod system. If not, yikes . . . well, at least Louisville is making a game of it.
Top 4 seeds CAN get location preference, but preference goes in order of seed. The way it is shaping it out with who the teams are on the 3/4 lines and where they are located and where the sites are located for rounds one and two, a few four seeds from the east/midwest will probably get sent out west.
Than play a 6 on a neutral court and avoid getting the 1 seed a round earlier?
I would make that trade, personally. This team needs a confidence boost and a home crowd will help. On a neutral site, who knows how we'll perform?
I want to make the Sweet 16. Anything beyond that is gravy.
As of right now, 2 teams have pretty much locked in 3 seeds in New Mexico and Florida, IMO. I think MSU will most likely get one and if Cuse wins tonight, they will likely get one. Michigan would need Louisville to win and bump Cuse back down to 4.
Louisville thankfully performed its civic duty. Amazing turnaround - they were down 16 early in the second half but went on to win by 17.
Hopefully, the committee will bump Syracuse back to a 4 for losing to a good team. Seems like predictors have no problem bumping Michigan down when they lose to good teams.
They'd better go down. They have nine losses and played in a (somewhat) worse conference.
So Michigan could play another MAC team in the first game? Please God no.
Not sure it would matter who they play right now...just want them in Auburn Hills.
Just because we lost to one, unusually-good, MAC team last year doesn't mean that they're all like that.
And Lunardi isn't a scientist...
Why does Michigan fall to a four seed after losing to Wisky, but Indiana remains a one seed after losing to - wait for it... Wisky. I understand that Michigan has looked mediocre at best in some of their last 12 or so games, but their schedule has been brutal. The Big 10 is by far the best conference, yet Lunardi has New Mexico (who beat UCONN and no one else goodish) ahead of UofM. I think the selection committee will consider their overall body of work to be enough for a three seed at least.
New Mexico is closer to a 1 than a 4
I don't understand the New Mexico love. What makes their resume so great? One win over UConn?
EDIT: OK, I see below that the MWC is somehow the highest-RPI conference. But that's absurd.
I have no idea where teams will be seeded later today, but based on RPI rankings and strength of schedule rankings before games of March 16, but results in games played on March 16:
New Mexico, with the nation’s second ranked RPI, was regular season and conference tournament champ of the conference with the nation’s best RPI (Mountain West). Their strength of schedule is ranked second in the nation. They have a 6-3 record against teams with RPIs in the top 35 and six wins against teams with an RPI above 150. They’re 29-5 and 16-3 in the Mountain West. They’re 9-1 in their last ten games. Their worst loss was to a team with the 78th ranked RPI on the road.
Michigan (RPI: 17; 25-7; 13-7 in the conference with the nation’s second ranked RPI) tied Wisconsin for the fourth best Big Ten regular season record, but was seeded fifth in the conference tournament and has the nation’s 39th ranked strength of schedule. They have a 5-6 record against teams with RPIs in the top 35, ten wins against teams with an RPI above 150 and are 5-5 in their last ten games. Their worst and only bad loss was to the team with the 185th ranked RPI on the road.
Wisconsin (RPI: 34; 23-10; 14-6 in conference, including 2-0 against Michigan) has the nation’s 19th ranked strength of schedule, a 5-7 record against teams with RPIs ranked in the top 35, ten wins against teams with an RPI above 150 and is 7-3 in its last ten games. Their worst and only bad loss was at home to the team with the 130th ranked RPI. They're playing for the Big Ten Tournament Championship.
Indiana (RPI: 5; 27-6; 15-5 in conference) was the regular season conference champ and has the nation’s tenth ranked strength of schedule, an 8-5 record against teams with RPIs ranked in the top 35, ten wins against teams with an RPI above 150 and is 7-3 in its last ten games. Their worst loss was to the team with the 40th ranked RPI on the road.
Some of that is the natural tendency of the RPI to overrate teams in the best mid-major conferences. From past brackets I think the committee knows that--they talk about RPI and non-conference SOS in public because they're trying to influence scheduling decisions, but behind closed doors they're using it more for organizational purposes (wins against top 50 / top 100 etc.) than to rank the teams of interest themselves. They haven't been handing out one-seeds to MWC and MVC teams just based on RPI, in the past.
Somebody on the committee yesterday talked in an interview about KenPom and Sagarin--I think they use those tools more than they'll admit.
If I had to guess I'd say Indiana's a one, Wisconsin and New Mexico are 3's and Michigan's a 4. They'll give the benefit of the doubt to the non-power-conference team, when they have a choice, and to a team that closed strong.
#4 in the West against Bucknell. I'll be happy when 7PM is here and everything is known.