I just saw the Las Vegas Hilton's early CFB lines for 2010 "marquee" matchups posted on Phil Steele's 7/20 blog.
UM odds for 2010:
+15 against OSU...I think they meant -15. Must be a typo.
I posted all of the lines from UM's point of view. UM is a 15 point "dog" which translates to +15.
I was trying to be sarcastic and overly optimistic but I guess it didn't come through. Being a problematic gambler, I definitely understand betting lines.
Personally, I think every MGoBlog user should be issued a Sarcasm Meter upon registering to post.
ND and PSU will creep closer. I thought Wisco would be a little higher. Nothing shocking
I may be in the minority but I do not think Penn State will be all that great this year, even in Happy Valley. This does seem to go with what many are saying though, that almost all of our games should be close, and not predetermined on a talent basis.
This is fairly Simple:
I like the +5 at ND. I think we win that game straight up.
I also like MSU -3. Those guys are due for an asskicking at some point right? I think we win by 7 at least, more likely 10-14.
Iowa +3 I'll take also. We lost by 2 last year AT Iowa, and our team was extremely young. We need to stop their tight ends on third and 18 though.
PSU+7 I normally would take since their QB situation is terrible so far this year. However right now I'm staying away from it since playing at PSU for the first time can be a daunting task for our QBs. The fact that the PSU Athletic Department is too arrogant to make it a White House event though does make it more appealing.
Wisc +2 I don't take. I think we're still a year away from beating Wisconsin and I think we'll lose by about 7. John Clay scares me. 2008 didn't make any sense when we beat them either though (I mean, we lost in 2007 when we had a far...far...far.. superior team), so who knows.
OSU+15 I'm double mortgaging my house to bet on. It's at the Shoe but come on. Tressel is so conservative that if OSU goes up by 14 points he's just kneeling the ball the rest of the game. I dont really like UM's chances to win, but I think Tressel has no interest in "a blowout" since thats not his style normally.
TL;DR: I have UM going 4-2 straight up in these games. I think we cover the spread in every thing except the Wisconsin game.
something i've been thinking about for a while, though is that i believe this year's OSU team and tressel could be different. I think that he lets Pryor do his thing more and lets the offense get more wide open. Although it pains me to say it, OSU is GOOD this year and the horseshoe is one of the toughest places to play, hand down.
If I was sitting on some cash, I would gladly take a few of those lines right now.
Why is ND getting so much love from all the prognosticators? I understand that Brian Kelly is a very good coach, but they went 6-6 last year and lost their two best offensive skill position players, one of whom was a QB. That's tough to replace, regardless of who's coaching. Maybe I'm being blindly optimistic, but I don't see ND tearing it up this year.
has them winning it all
(I agree, I have no idea why they always get the love... to hell with ND)
Making them a five-point favorite at home against a team coming off a 5-7 season (including 0-4 on the road) really isn't showing them that much love.
...to me the general rule of thumb for betting Michigan Football is: Stay Away
@ND +5 Michigan
MSU -3 Michigan
Iowa +3 Stay Way Away
@PSU +7 Michigan
Wisc +2 Wisconsin
@OSU +15 Michigan
What kind of prop bet could you get on taking Michigan in every game and coming out ahead? In other words, I'll bet that Michigan is definitely over .500 against these lines.
Are you that certain that UM will lose to Iowa by more than 3 points? Or am I mis-reading your "Stay Way Away" comment?
Personally, I think UM has a pretty decent shot at beating Iowa SU.
...but that doesn't make it a good bet. We could beat Iowa. We could lose by a point. We could also lose by 4 or even 10. Who really knows?
At this point there's no way I bet that game, hence, stay way away.
I realize this isn't on topic, but I was there this past weekend and when waiting for my returning flight on Sunday I happened to see one of those baggage "trains" driving on the runway and one of the carts had etched on the side of it in huge letters "TACOPANTS". No joke. I figured this might have been a hallucination due to lack of sleep and excessive drinking but after a closer look I'm sure it was there. So my question is, does this have a farther stretching meaning than just what we've come to know it as on this board? or did someone from the mgoblog universe hit up Vegas and decide to leave their mark?
The ND line is down from +7 when it originally opened at the Golden Nugget....and the PSU line is down from 10 per the opening line at the Nugget.
Those lines were released in mid-June, so a little more than a month of public betting has shifted some lines in favor of Michigan.....the OSU line, however, is up from -13.5
I see Wisconsin winning by more than 2, but us winning the ND line.
The problem with the Wisconsin game is that our teams are completely opposite of one another. They are the "old" Michigan type team. They are big upfront and try to overwhelm teams with the run. We spread them out and try to win using our speed advantage. I think this game will come down to who executes their game plan efficiently rather than what team is "better." I am not overly optimistic about this season (I think 6-6 or 7-5) but I think we win this one. I know they manhandled us last year but Our d-line will be much bigger this year and I think they will be able to hold their ground to allow the LBs to take care of business.
By the way, I know this is a tangent but I dont think I should create a new thread for this question:
What are the online sports betting sites people prefer? I'm looking for a new one recently.
Giggling in the bushes again after they've set the bag of dog poo on fire and rung the door bell. After that, it's home to beat off in the basement while looking at the older brother's old and tattered Hustlers.
You had me at "old and tattered Hustlers."
What these lines say to me is that Vegas seriously values home field advantage. The three most favorable spreads are all on the road. I'd take all 3 road games and bet that we beat the spread on at least 2 of 3.
must be someone who finds gambling discussion a mortal sin
+1 to all
I'd bet the ND game for sure. There is a history of underdogs covering and even winning outright plus the Brian Kelly love is a little too much. The only other line that is especially enticing is the OSU line because 15 is a lot but not as confident.
I like us getting 5 at ND. I think we have a better shot there than against Iowa or Wisconsin.
I'd probably take Wisconsin and give the points, since 3 point margins are so common.
I also like us getting 15 at OSU, since Tressel's MO is to get up by two scores and then sit on the lead. At 14, not so much.
I can't wrap my head around why people think PSU is going to be so great this year. Unless Newsome has been replaced with a cyborg in the shape of himself, I think it'll be close.