MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 2:24 PM ^

Detroit with a steal off a terrible pass and a fast-break goal to go up 10-7.  35 seconds left.  Ironically I was just thinking that even though the scoreboard wasn't showing it, the third was a better-played half by U-M than the second, but that was a lazy, sloppy play.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 2:27 PM ^

3rd period over with a 10-7 UDM lead.  Like I said above, not a bad quarter despite all.  UDM had to really earn that 9th goal and it was just an oustanding effort by the Titan attacker.  But that bad turnover gave UDM a gift.

FO won by U-M to start the 4th.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 2:35 PM ^

And UDM scores on the EMO.  Michigan had done a nice job on defense and got the ball, but couldn't hold on as UDM used the extra man to double up and get the ball back.  12-7 Detroit now.

weasel3216

February 12th, 2012 at 2:40 PM ^

@ Penn St - L

@Denver - L

vs Air Force - L

@Jacksonville - L

vs Mercer - W

vs Loyola - L

vs Bellarmine - Toss up

vs Mount St. Marys - L

@ Harvard - L

vs Delaware - L

vs Akron St - L

@ Rutgers - L

@ North Carolina - L

This is how i see the rest of the season playing out.  Jacksonville was a hard one tto gauge since they are still a relatively new program.  I have never seen them play, but looking at their past seasons they should be able to defeat us, plus the game is down there.

I think Mercer will be maybe the ony win of the season.  Mercer is a very bad team, they haven't played yet this season but they last season they lost to UDM by 16, that is saying something.

Bellarmine is the only remaining game i think we might have a chance with, Bellarmine can play a good game and the next they could stink it up.  All depends upon which Bellarmine team shows up and the level at which Michigan is playing at that point.

This means we go either 1-13 or 2-12.  This is assuming we don't have a great come back today.

Thoughts?

 

 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 2:45 PM ^

Mercer actually played yesterday, and lost (of course) to Ohio.  But only by 7.  I don't know whether that represents improvement by Mercer or a step backwards for Ohio.  Still, I expect to beat them.  I wouldn't count Jax as a loss that easy, that should be in the winnable category although by no means are they Mercer, either.  I think maybe an outside (very outside) chance at beating Rutgers and MSM as well.

L'Carpetron Do…

February 12th, 2012 at 2:52 PM ^

Yeah that seems about right.  I'm ever the optimist and like to think that they can beat J'ville (still a fresh D-1 team) and that maybe they can steal a game from Rutgers or Air Force.  They were'nt good last year if I remember correctly and hopefully Michigan will catch them on another down year.  Detroit is expected to win its conference so they may be better than we think...

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^

Again nothing doing on the EMO.  Detroit ball and Michigan doesn't seem interested in playing aggressively to get it back.  You can't just let them kill the penalty like that when you're down four.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 2:48 PM ^

No, I don't think it's that.  As soon as the penalty was over, UDM went on the attack again and Michigan got the ball back pretty quickly.  Part of it might've been that UDM had the ball in better position than when Michigan had it down a man, and U-M might have been worried about a quick goal.  But even so.....down four, you have to take those chances, I think.

LIhockey24

February 12th, 2012 at 2:44 PM ^

its going to be tough for a lot of michigan fans who are used to winning in everything but give it 5-6 years and hopefully we will be one of the better teams in the nation.Hopefully we'll be able to steal a couple this season and keep it close against teams like UNC...Let them have there fun now because this is MICHIGAN fergodsakes and its only a matter of time...

weasel3216

February 12th, 2012 at 2:51 PM ^

I think it will take 5-6 years for UM to make the tourney for the first time.  I think more like 10 for UM to be at the start of an elite program.  The best part i think is that UM will be patient with Coach JP, i think they understand how hard this is going to be going from Club to D1 in less than a year.  Typically, teams do a transition into the NCAA ranks (D2 and D3 level of course).  I hope i am right, it will be awesome to see Coach JP raise the trophy eventually, plus it will be an amazing story. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 2:56 PM ^

My hope for 5-6 years is that Michigan can get to the level of a decent CAA team like Delaware.  A first tourney appearance in that timeframe sounds right.  A lot of it depends on how the conferences shake out in the next five years because there'll definitely be some upheaval.  We'll probably have to contend with Denver and Bill Tierney regardless, though.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 3:35 PM ^

There used to be a Great Western Lacrosse League, but it couldn't hold together as teams either dropped the sport or moved to more geographically sane conferences.  Finally the ECAC scooped up the remains which is how we got to the ECAC of today with Denver competing in a conference with "eastern" in the name.  I think it would be more realistic to expect a revival of a lacrosse western conference than to hold out hope for a Big Ten league.  Big Ten lacrosse is too far on the horizon.

More likely: a western conference that includes Denver, Air Force, Ohio, Michigan, Marquette, and certain other members such as potentially Penn State, Notre Dame, Detroit depending on how conference shakeups happen elsewhere.

Edit: I'd add that I know a lot of people see Michigan as a harbinger of FBS teams joining the lacrosse ranks, but I just don't see it that way.  We had a very unique situation.  We haz resources, we haz the infrastructure, we haz a team already.  In other words, we have more money than everyone else, less startup costs than everyone else, and a ready-made team that can compete.  And Coach Paul already has the necessary recruiting connections to boot.  Everyone else has to start completely from scratch.  The only other Big Ten school I see that has a unique situation that could help them get a men's team off the ground is Northwestern.

weasel3216

February 12th, 2012 at 3:00 PM ^

The important point is that we have made the jump to this level.  It may be a rough couple seasons, but like in my post above, the school and fans will need a lot of patience with this team/program. 

Way to make us proud Team One.

macdaddy

February 12th, 2012 at 3:02 PM ^

So what is it that makes the difference here? Michigan was a dominant club program 9 months ago and appears now to be a very low-level D1 team. Is it simply the quality of the athletes? Are all the D1 players, even at small schools like UDM, just faster, stronger and smarter than the Michigan guys? Is it coaching? I'm pretty sure JP knows what he's doing. Is it off-season training, clinics, etc.? Do the Michigan players somehow "not get" what it takes to win at this level? Are there other intangibles involved? I'm truly curious

weasel3216

February 12th, 2012 at 3:07 PM ^

I would say MIchigan is basically playing D1 opponents still with a club program.  JP has not been able to recruit the way D1 programs have the past year.  Also, the talent level alone between the players is going to have an effect of the competition of the games. 

Michigan could never give out a scholarship for a kid to come out and play lax in AA, D1 schools could, therefore making them much more attractive to the better high school players. 

I think you are right that JP knows what he is doing, it is just a matter of him getting the players he needs to run his team to the level he desires.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 3:13 PM ^

Picture a D-II basketball team trying to compete at a D-I level.  There are a certain few teams that the D-IIers could beat, like some MEAC teams and whatnot, but all the obstacles are the same: recruiting, scholarships, etc.  That's the difference between club and varsity.

WolvinLA2

February 13th, 2012 at 12:24 AM ^

Agreed.  Detroit has classes worth of guys who were recruited to play D1 lacrosse, M has one, and they were all playing in their first college lacrosse game ever. 

In that vein - every Michigan player was playing in their first division 1 lacrosse game ever.  Even the experienced guys on Michigan's team have played their entire careers against other club teams, so they've never experienced playing a team with better talent than they had.  The level of competition M has faced over the last few years ranges from bad club teams to good club teams, all of which would be terrible D1 teams.  Detroit has a number of guys who, not only are more talented than M's guys, but who have a couple/few years experience playing against D1 competition, in some cases, very good D1 competition. 

The fact that this was a 13-9 game is pretty good, considering.  If we were able to play UDM again at the end of the season, we'd do even better.  This is how I expect the rest of the season to play out, but in a couple years, these are the teams we should be able to take care of.

laxalum

February 13th, 2012 at 9:51 AM ^

In the story on Fox last week one of the Detroit players called Michigan "little brother."  In his case his actual little brother plays for Michigan (Brad and Jeff Janer), and since the UM program is in it's first year and UDM is four years old, it's kind of accurate.  However, all similarities to the UM - Sparty relationship end pretty quickly.  In this case little brother is going to grow up to be a lot bigger and stronger than big brother in a few years.  I don't know if there was any bad blood Sunday, but if there was I have a feeling the Michigan coaches will remember.

WolvinLA2

February 13th, 2012 at 11:41 AM ^

Yeah - bad blood or not, this game will turn into a rivalry, no doubt.  They're only 45 minutes apart, they'll likely play each other every year, and they'll be going head-to-head for the top in-state guys every year.  There's no way that doesn't turn into come kind of rivalry.

That said, I agree with you that Michigan should dominate that rivalry starting pretty soon.  Maybe not next year, but in year three of our program, I expect our talent level to be on par with UDM (or above), and after that we should always be the favorite against them. 

Think about it - if you're a top recruit from Michigan and you have the option to play at either school, where would you pick?  And if you're a recruit with both options from out of state, it's even more of a no-brainer.

laxalum

February 13th, 2012 at 12:06 PM ^

We'll see.  I have my suspicions that they won't be playing each other for that long.  SOS is very important in D1 lacrosse.  Once the Michigan program is established, what do they gain by playing UDM?  (I'm talking a few years from now obviously.)  Would local fans, aside from UDM fans, rather see Michigan play Detroit or bring in a big-name team like Hopkins or Virginia?  (Teams UDM will never get to come to Michigan.)  Does the average Michigan fan getting to know lacrosse care about them playing Detroit or would they rather see out-of-conference games against Penn State and Notre Dame, schools they recognize as peers?  I could be wrong, but I think I know the answers.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 13th, 2012 at 2:40 PM ^

I don't agree.  It's not like bringing in big-name teams is mutually exclusive to a UDM game every year.  And if you're trying to attract new fans - I mean really, really new fans to the game itself - how many of those people really know who the big names are in lacrosse?  Duke really is the team with the biggest name recognition among non-fans these days, and for the wrong reason.  Hopkins probably rings some vague bells for people.  Perhaps UVA and Syracuse.  But if you asked non lax fans to pick the Ivy League schools that are best at lacrosse, would they get it right?

Penn State and Notre Dame, sure - people know them from elsewhere.  And eventually it'll get to the point where UDM definitely gets more out of the game than Michigan.  But Michigan won't stop reaping benefits either.  It's a cheap game, and whether it turns out to be a cheap rivalry game or a cheap cupcake, it matters.  UVA plays VMI every year, after all.  If the ECAC stays the way it is (unlikely, but still) it leaves room for a solid six or so nonconference games.  They can't all be Hopkins, Cornell, Virginia, Syracuse, and it's got to be better to play UDM than Jacksonville or Mount St. Mary's or Mercer.

Keep in mind Brian's negative reaction to the end of the Oakland series in basketball.  That had to do also with Oakland being halfway decent and Towson and UAPB not, but clearly there's something to be gained by playing the instate team instead of bringing in cupcakes from halfway across the country.  Especially in lacrosse where cost is a bigger factor.

Full disclosure in the interest of journalistic integrity: I'm going to grad school at UDM right now.  So I clearly want this game to happen every year.  But I think my points are still valid.

L'Carpetron Do…

February 12th, 2012 at 3:13 PM ^

Good questions - its probably just athletes.  Michigan usually has a handful (sometimes 0) players that can play at most Div 1 schools and the rest of the team is made up of good HS players but not necessarily great athletes.  Detroit on the other hand has been recruiting kids for a few years now so they have better athletes at every position.   But there's probably more that plays into it.

Detroit should be fairly decent this year though - some have projected them to win their conference.

America

February 12th, 2012 at 3:03 PM ^

How good is Detroit?  I ask because they seemed to be in this game for the most part and most of the projections I have seen have us winning like 1 game.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 3:05 PM ^

Detroit 13, Michigan 9 is the final.  Impressions:

- Not a badly played game, but Detroit's offense is a pretty good one.  They play in the worst conference in the country but offensively the Titans could compete a league or two up.

- Got to be better on faceoffs.  UDM is really, really bad at them, so losing four in a row in the second and going maybe 50/50 for the game isn't a good sign.

- U-M got a little sloppy and desperate late.  Their settled offense looked good in the first half but once the game started getting out of hand, they started to press too much.  And of course there was that really bad turnover.

- EM offense was poor.  Too much passing around the edge and not enough looking for chances.  Hardly any, in fact.

- Overall, the teams were pretty evenly matched, except that UDM just has too good an offense.  Michigan didn't look out of place on a D-I field when it counted, but there are D-I teams and then there are D-I teams, and this was only the former.  But in the end, I think the game went more or less exactly as we expected it would.

mlax27

February 12th, 2012 at 3:42 PM ^

I agree with your breakdown, but one other thing did jump out at me. The new way lattimore has them passing (choking up) really had a lot of guys looking uncomfortable and lead to a number of very poor turnovers. This should correct itself by next year, but will cause some growing pains. recruiting guys who do that naturally will also help.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

February 12th, 2012 at 4:33 PM ^

For those interested in mathnerd stuff, this past offseason I put together a rudimentary KenPomish system to generate an O-rating and D-rating for lacrosse teams.  I'll spare you the gory details of the system, but for this game, Michigan ended up with:

- O-rating: 12.29

- D-rating: 18.54

D-I average was roughly 14 for each last year.  That puts Michigan about half a standard deviation below the mean for offense and about two st.devs above it on defense.

Take it FWIW because tiny sample size is tiny and this doesn't account for quality of opponent like KenPom does, but it does seem to jive with what we observed in this game, with the offense being ahead of the defense.

splieb17

February 12th, 2012 at 4:57 PM ^

UM looked sloppy throughout the game, but their determination kept them in it. I expected way more from Detroit, a team that was picked to win the MAAC. Overall good start for Team one. Cant wait to see what their offense will become in 2-3 years when the two freshman get some experience.  

laxalum

February 12th, 2012 at 7:30 PM ^

I wish I could have been there.  Just followed on twitter.  Reading this thread actually has me encouraged.  I had no idea what to expect.  I hoped this team could hang with Detroit, but I had a feeling this was going to be a very rude welcome to D1 - especially with the way Detroit was approaching this game as the "Rivalry to end all rivalries."  It proves that the club roster they are playing with is at least D1 capable.

New fans to this team do need to understand that it's going to be a process.  The way Michigan is doing this is unique.  Most new D1 teams have some build-up time to recruit.  The new women's team at Michigan, for example, is not playing a game until the 2014 season.  Their coaches have two full years to build a D1 roster.  The men are going in with zero D1 recruits.  Despite that, they can hang with an established low-level D1 team.  In most games this year they will take a beating.  I hope Michigan fans will support them with the understanding that they can build something special over time.  Like Weasel I think they have the right coach and the right plan to do that.

As a former player on the club team, I can't tell you how much I envy the guys on this team.  What an incredible opportunity to represent Michigan as Team One.