Know Thy Enemy: Ohio Spring Game

Submitted by jscbus on

Airing through tape delay on BTN until our game. Thoughts, criticisms, enlightenment? Leave it here. 

 

MGoStrength

April 13th, 2013 at 8:59 PM ^

I tend to agree but, I just happened to be watching the replay of the game earlier this afternoon and Washington beat Lewan for a sack and they both got pressure on Gardner all game.  So, although on paper it seems we have the advantage they did fare well.  Granted a lot of other factors go into that as it's not as simple as one-on-one matchups all game, but they did play well and Washington did beat Lewan 1-on-1 for a sack using a speed rush.  Hopefully we can run at them so it's less of an issue.

FreddieMercuryHayes

April 13th, 2013 at 9:05 PM ^

And yet you dismiss the South Carolina game when Lewan completely neutralized Clowney? Do you think Washington is better than Clowney? Or could Lewan just have lost one snap in a vast pool of samples and that's the one you're focusing on and drawing grand conclusions from?

MGoStrength

April 13th, 2013 at 9:26 PM ^

Are you referencing a previous comment, because if so you need to make note it in your comment because I have no idea where your comment is coming from.  We are discussing the Washington/Spence matchup against Schofield/Lewan.  What does that have to do with Clowney?  

 

I said I agree that we appear to matchup well against OSU on paper, but I was providing evidence of us getting beat as well as OSU getting good pressure all game. I did not say Washington/Spence won the overall matchup.  Are you saying that was the only time Washington or Spence beat Lewan?

In reply to by MGoStrength

FreddieMercuryHayes

April 13th, 2013 at 9:58 PM ^

Yes, I was referencing the Spence/Washington match-up.  I interrepted your comment that we don't match-up well with Spence/Washington because you mentioned they got a lot of pressure.  I rebutted that the sample was too small, i.e. one sack by Washington vs. Lewan, and that Lewan neutralized a much better defensive end than either the next week, to imply that I don't think they match-up was as bad you stated.  Now, granted, your metric of 'pressure' is a bit nebulous, and I'm not sure you you define it, but the Spence/Washington combo last year in The Game only recorded one sack the entire game (the above referenced sack by Washington).  Their lB's did have a couple of sacks, but that's not the match-up you presented.  So I believe I have strong ground to stand on for my argument and that your evidence of OSU matching up well against us and getting pressure all game does not stand as valid based on the match-ups you provided.

MGoStrength

April 13th, 2013 at 10:28 PM ^

I was only making an observation.  I made no argument as to whether we won or lost the matchup.  You are the only one making an argument and taking a stance.  So, is your argument that if an offensive lineman only gives up once sack per game that's a win?  What if all 5 offensive lineman each give up one sack, are they still doing well?  I'm not sure what this strong ground is you reference in your argument, simply my lack of evidence?...because you haven't really presented any evidence of a Lewan/Schofield winning the matchup either.  But, again I was making an observation, not an argument, hence only one example...kinda what an observation is.  

MGoStrength

April 13th, 2013 at 9:37 PM ^

They play at NW.  Other than OSU I think NW is our second most difficult game.  I know our schedule is more difficult than theirs, but nontheless if we consider NW a difficult game for us we should also do so for them....ahh eff them they play a weak schedule!

MGoStrength

April 13th, 2013 at 11:25 PM ^

Yup, agreed.  Cal is their "featured" out-of-conference game and they will be heavily favored.  They don't play Neb or MSU as you mentioned.  I think Wisconsin is still a quality team, they bring back a lot of guys, but they still have question marks at QB and OSU gets them at home so you'd certainly expect them to win that game.  OSU gets PSU and Iowa at home too, all games you'd expect them to win.  They seem to have a pretty easy schedule.  But, NW on the road won't be a cake walk for them and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them drop that game.

Logan88

April 14th, 2013 at 6:42 AM ^

OSU has never really struggled with Northwestern, though. Their game at Purdue might actually be a "tougher" game because OSU has a history of struggling with Purdue in West Lafayette.

It's pretty frustrating that Urban Meyer (who was alreay deemed a quasi-deity by the media) is getting to cakewalk his way to two outstanding records in his first two seasons at OSU which will only fuel the Urban-is-a-college-football-coaching-god meme which will likely result in phenominal recruiting classes for OSU thereby increasing OSU's odds of having another decade long run of clobbering everyone in the B1G. If OSU had played UM's 2012 schedule they probably would have lost 3-4 games and the enthusiasm surrounding Meyer's return to the game would have been significanly dampened.

MGoStrength

April 14th, 2013 at 9:19 AM ^

I know that Purdue has given them a tough game the past few years, but they lose a lot from that defense this year.  And in all fairnress OSU hasn't played NW since 2008 and Pat Fitzgerald only got there in 2006, so they are going to be playing a completely different animal than their history would represent.  Northwester has a good team is certainly up there as a favorite to win our division.  I'm guessing that will be a close game.  

 

If it makes you feel better OSU plays both Va Tech and Cincy in 2014 who should be decent.  Then they have to go on the road to Camp Randall, Kinnick, and Beaver Stadium.  It's hard to tell if any of those teams will be good in 2014 now but those are all tough places to play.  And, then UM travels to OSU with 5th year senior QB and finally some upperclassman and depth on defense, although I'm not sure how our replacements for Lewan and Schofield will be yet, but it should be a great game.  Anyways, if someone wants to displace them then they have to start beating them.  We can't leave it up to anyone else or expect anyone else to do it for us.  They aren't gonna hand it over or stop recruiting well.

AnthonyThomas

April 13th, 2013 at 9:13 PM ^

Did anyone else see that OSU made championship rings for their undefeated season? I loled. I would have loved to have seen them play Alabama or Georgia. They would've been murdered. 

FreddieMercuryHayes

April 13th, 2013 at 10:17 PM ^

And yet last year they couldn't pull away from Purdue, or Cal all at home, or IU or UW...I expect a slight regression to the mean and they drop a game or two.  It's really hard to go undefeated, even with an easy schedule.  It's possible, and they are a good team, but still weird things happen in sports.

Oh, and the first part of the not sure if serious comment was that Miller improved...from the stats on the game, I believe he was pretty much exactly the same as last year.  Not great, but makes one or two great deep balls and avoids TOs.  Nothing new there.  Still dangerous, but no an elite passer.

E. Gordon Gee

April 13th, 2013 at 10:38 PM ^

"I expect a slight regression to the mean and they drop a game or two."

What is the mean in this case? What distribution (maybe binomial) are you using to determine the mean? What is the vaule of the regression? Reading your post, I'm confused how you are using statistics to determine the outcome of a season. Please explain your logic and stats. 

For the record, I agree OSU does have a weak schedule as their first four games are games they should win, although going to Cal is a toss up but likely in OSU favor. I refuse to homer out and think they will go 11-0 before they play Michigan. Maybe 9-2 or 10-1 at best. I'm still lost on what you mean by your above quote. Are you trying to say its hard for a team to go undefeated, let alone do it in back to back season maybe?

ThWard

April 14th, 2013 at 11:21 AM ^

But is it really that incredible to think OSU could go undefeated... One year from going undefeated, returning most everyone of significance and facing a weak schedule? Sure, it's not a lock. But silly to have overly strong views on either side of this.

FreddieMercuryHayes

April 13th, 2013 at 11:00 PM ^

'Regession to the mean' obviously doesn't apply to a scenario that has no stats to actually back it up. But it is a useful phrase that everybody understands to mean, that yes, weird things happen in sports and I do not expect OSU to go undefeated, as I never expect any team to go undefeated. Because more than likely they won't. I feel a one or two loss season going into the UM game is a much more reasonable expectation, even for a really good team

FormerlyBigBlue71

April 13th, 2013 at 10:03 PM ^

The only game I think they have a chance to lose(other than us) is at Cal which I believe is the 2nd game of the year and Cal gave them problems at home last year.  But even thats a stretch.  They have a very good team and a weak schedule.  They will be 11-0  when they come to the big house.  Bank on it. 

FreddieMercuryHayes

April 13th, 2013 at 10:10 PM ^

They may, but I'll bank on the fact that it's really difficult to go undefeated in sports.  Even Bama couldn't do it the past two years.  And OSU won close games last year against Cal, MSU, IU, Purdue, UM (all those just off the top of my head).  Statistically, they should just drop one of those by chance.  I expect that to happen this year at least once.  Any team that can't pull away from Purdue or Cal at home last year is not elite.

DonAZ

April 13th, 2013 at 11:13 PM ^

Where's Seth?  He's the resident expert in the use of "Thy" vs. "Thine."  *

Seth? :-)

* Seth corrected a diary entry of mine last year, but he did it in such a good-natured way I couldn't be upset.  I think "thine" is the proper use in this context.  But I ain't no good with grammar.